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to be more sustainable and reduce agricultures impact on the environment consumers need to
1. eat more local foods
2. change their diet to more sustainable options
(Mitch Smith article and nat geo article)

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For decades, American agriculture has been a paragon of productivity, churning out record crops at a steady clip. We have exported both our farm products and our way of farming around the world, and global production has risen relentlessly.

Yet now there is concern that even this is not enough. The United Nations projects that the global population will increase from 7.3 billion in 2015 to 9.7 billion in 2050. This growth will be concentrated in the world's poorest countries, where standards of living are set to rise rapidly, increasing demand for resource-intensive meat and dairy products. Together, these trends are heightening fears that the world's cupboards may run bare in the coming decades.

Masaqui/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA

This scenario leads to the nearly ubiquitous assertion that we must double world food production by 2050, which is widely repeated by agribusinesses and scholars alike. This claim is often coupled with calls to reduce impacts on the environment even as food production ramps up. The common prescription is for a " sustainable intensification " of agriculture that both increases yields and reduces the harmful side effects of tilling and fertilizing billions of acres of land.

But do we really need to double food production? And what will it take for agriculture to be sustainable?

In an analysis published in BioScience, my coauthors and I offer a recalibrated vision of sustainable intensification. We conclude that food production does not need to double by 2050, which would require unprecedented growth, but instead needs to continue increasing at roughly historical rates. We also highlight quantitative goals that indicate the scope of agriculture's environmental challenges.

Lower food production targets

Our analysis updates the two most widely cited projections of food demand, one by U.S. scholars and the other from the United Nations, using the most recent available data. Both of these studies used a baseline year around 2005, which made sense at the time they were published, but global cereal production jumped 24 percent between 2005 and 2014. So, we updated the baseline to 2014. We also factored in the most recent U.N. population estimate for 2050, which is higher than the estimates used in the original studies.

Based on our projections, the world will need only 25 percent to 70 percent more crop output in 2050 than was produced in 2014. This includes grain used to feed livestock and, to some extent, grain used for ethanol production.

Lynn Betts, USDA

We did not question the approaches of the original studies. Indeed, the differences between the two studies' approaches reflect some of the main uncertainties inherent to these long-term projections, including different scenarios of future economic growth and different assumptions about how growing wealth will affect human diets.

Food production will still need to keep growing to meet our updated goal of a 25 percent to 70 percent increase, but at an annual rate that is closer to the historical average. Hitting these lower targets will put much less strain on the global agriculture system - and the land, water and air that supports it - than doubling production. To double output, we would have to boost food production more rapidly than ever before, driving increases in soil tillage, fertilizer and pesticide use, and water withdrawals for irrigation.

New focus on environmental goals

This additional breathing room may be critical, because our analysis also shows that agriculture's environmental footprint must shrink drastically to safeguard the ecosystems that humans rely on. We reviewed quantitative goals for agriculture's environmental performance that are tied to specific outcomes for ecosystem function.

For instance, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are crawling steadily upward. Scientists have called for reducing these emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050 to avoid temperature increases greater than 2 degrees Celsius.

Similarly, nutrient pollution in the Mississippi River Basin creates a massive dead zone every year in the Gulf of Mexico, suffocating aquatic life and impacting commercial and recreational fishing. Reducing the dead zone will require cutting this pollution - which predominantly comes from agriculture - to about half of its historical baseline. Despite decades of effort by farmers and conservationists, annual nutrient loads remain stubbornly high.

Given these challenges, it is good news that the world's appetite in 2050 may not be as voracious as some estimates have indicated.

The path forward

Our revised food production and environmental goals are just the beginning of a new approach to sustainable intensification in agriculture.

More research is needed to refine the projections of food demand in 2050 and identify options for flattening the demand curve while enhancing human health. Regional studies are also needed, so that areas poised for rapid population growth can plan for their future food needs. And new research can draw clearer links between environmental impacts and ecosystem outcomes, so that farmers and the public can make informed decisions about the costs and benefits of different ways of farming.

Meeting both production and environmental goals will be a monumental task, especially in the face of new challenges such as water shortages, pesticide resistance and the changing climate. However, clear targets may help farmers, researchers and policymakers focus on the right long-term challenges.

Congress has just begun hearings on the 2018 farm bill, which will set policy for five years of agricultural production, conservation and research. The new bill can support research efforts aimed at refining and achieving agriculture's long-term goals. Just as important, it can begin transforming farm subsidy, crop insurance and conservation programs to help farmers make changes on the ground.

With our lower food demand projections in mind, there is an opportunity to start providing incentives for farming practices that keep soils covered with living plants year-round, store more carbon in the soil and prevent nutrients from entering waterways. More broadly, these lower targets create space for a new conversation, one focused not on doubling production, but on developing a new food system that keeps people fed while focusing just as much on keeping ecosystems healthy.

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We don't need to double world food production by 2050 - here's why

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For decades, American agriculture has been a paragon of productivity, churning out record crops at a steady clip. We have exported both our farm products and our way of farming around the world, and global production has risen relentlessly. Yet now there is concern that even this is not enough.

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agriculture needs to become more sustainable in order to not negatively impact the environment. It can do this by:
1. Cease agriculture
2. Increase yield on current land
3. Use resources more sustainably
(National geograhic Feeding 9 billion)

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When we think about threats to the environment, we tend to picture cars and smokestacks, not dinner. But the truth is, our need for food poses one of the biggest dangers to the planet.

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Areas with lack of access to proper food, have been greatly effected by systematic segregation such as in redlining which discouraged certain shops from being placed in certain neighborhoods. ( npr redlining article)

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The thought process of evaluating individuals circumstances as exclusively happening because of traits or actions done by that individual. (Myers chapter 13)

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The thought process of evaluating the impact of the society on the individual and the individuals actions on the societal concepts (Myers chapter 13)

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Provide opportunities for more opportunities

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Potential for overuse of herbicides and development on herbicide resistant weeds creating crop yield problems in the future(textbook)

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Larger crop yield, crops can be produced for less money (textbook pg 105)

Unknown long-term effects of consumption, currently used on corn and soy mostly in the US contributing to unhealthy food

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Include herbicide resistance, mold resistance, longer shelf life modifications
(Textbook pg 103)

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Causes diversity, specification, and ubiquity to fill environmental/societal niches

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high sodium, high calorie, high refined sugar, but low nutrients foods. Optimized for taste and cost.
(Winson and Choi)

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adding tasteful additions to foods that are not nutritious

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cattle grown on corn, not grass, helps it grow faster but not more nutritious
also motivation for busy groups to use fast-food or tv dinners

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radical reduction of the complexity of whole foods (Winson and Choi pg 52)

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seasonality of local produce, climate, changes in climate and what you are able to produce (Chefs Table- Nancy stelato)

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traditions, knowledge of food creation, access to different types of food (Chef's Table- Marcus Nillson)

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idea of consumers only using the goods not thinking about the rest of the system. (introduction to book chatpter)

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disconnect from where food comes from (introduction chapter to book)

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nutrition, preparation, and environmental knowledge or monetary goods that allow for greater control over situations (Week 5 Thursday assignment questions)

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more options are available to more rich people while poorer people have less stores in the area and less money to spend (Textbook: Consuming food)

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most food in stores is manufactured and produced from few select companies (Textbook: Consuming food)

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Companies gain trust from consumers by producing reliable products and selling them under the same brand (Textbook: Consuming food)

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influence public opinion, sway especially children to want certain products (Textbook: Consuming food)

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approaching problems on a system wide perspective to address them most effectively for the ever changing iterative process and for making sustainable changes now (Disruptive Design book)

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care about the problem and be passionate about every area of it (Disruptive Design book)

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Products policies, environments, affected by ecological factors and affecting societal factors
(Disruptive Design book)

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The planet and all ecosystems on it, the most broad and encompassing factor on systems (Disruptive Design book)

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networks of things connected in diverse ways
(Disruptive Design book)

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Wall Street Journal, BBC News

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Fox News

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New York Times and Washington Post

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Enquirer, Info wars, Natural News

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AP, Reuters, UPI

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clear audience and point of view

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references to statistical information, thoroughly edited and reviewed

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: within 5-10 years, more recent for some

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Author: establish their history and credibility

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Things to look for for in evaluating websites (Checklist for websites and Dr. C video for Thursday assign 2)

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Things to look for for in evaluating websites (Checklist for websites and Dr. C video for Thursday assign 2)

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Technology has made it easier than ever to distribute and receive news about society
Impacted by both accuracy and bias as shown by All Sides from Fake News source

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winners and losers

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Time and space compression

Economic and cultural impacts

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individualistic and free-market centered to

1. Roll back regulations on the economy

2. Competition on a global scale

3. Shift government responsibilities to the private sector

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(Food Matters Introduction Chapter)

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the structure and practices, culture, and organizations of a society that impact individuals

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study of the dialectic nature of society between individuals and society
(Discussion: Sociological Concepts)