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The U.N. also reported that governments adopted new regulations across a spectrum of areas

and supported joint international efforts to address public aspects of the pandemic. State

intervention spanned policy approaches from investment incentives to promote the

production of medicines and medical equipment, assistance to affected firms and industries,

measures to circumvent intellectual property rights restrictions, and international efforts to

speed up vaccine production and cross-border sharing. The shift in approach toward the

national security dimensions of foreign investment, especially by developed economies, has

tended to blur the distinction between foreign investment, trade, and national security and

reflects the evolving nature of the concept of national security relative to foreign investment.

Conceivably, changes in technology and the global economy have made it more difficult to

assess the economic costs and benefits of changes in foreign investment policies taken on

national security grounds.

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Measures taken by some countries to control the spread

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Measures taken by some countries to control the spread

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During 2020, various governments adopted measures at both the national and international level to address the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), these measures include incentives and subsidies to increase domestic production of vaccines and personal protective equipment (PPE) and direct state intervention through nationalization or through directives to increase output at facilities that currently produced PPE materials or to initiate production at other facilities. EU members moved independently to amend existing legislation or adopt new rules to expand their review of foreign investments for national security reasons, particularly rules related to acquisitions of firms involved in the production of medical care and health. Also, Australia, Canada, and Japan expanded the range of foreign investments they screen. In some cases, policy changes included enhanced foreign investment screening of foreign investment for “public interest” reasons that may remain after the pandemic crisis. The following image will explain about some measures taken by some countries.

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Trade in goods during the first quarter of 2021 was higher than the pre-pandemic level, but trade in services remained substantially below averages.

A container ship leaves the Port of Los Angeles. About 80% of international trade in goods is carried by sea. © Angel DiBilio

World trade's recovery from the COVID-19 crisis hit a record high in the first quarter of 2021, increasing by 10% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, according to UNCTAD's Global Trade Update released on 19 May.

According to the report, the impressive rebound in Q1 2021 continued to be driven by the strong export performance of East Asian economies, whose early success in pandemic mitigation allowed them to rebound faster and to capitalize on booming global demand for COVID-19 related products.

"Global trade has recorded a faster recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic than in the last two trade recessions," said UNCTAD economist Alessandro Nicita, who worked on the report.

He said it took four quarters after the start of the pandemic-induced recession for world trade to return to pre-recession levels. By the fifth quarter - Q1 2021 - global trade was higher than pre-crisis levels, with an increase of about 3% relative to Q4 2019.

By contrast, it took 13 quarters for global trade to recover from the 2015 recession, which resulted from structural changes in East Asian economies and declines in commodity prices, and nine quarters to bounce back from the 2009 recession caused by the global financial crisis.

The report says in Q1 2021 the value of trade in goods was higher than pre-pandemic level, but trade in services remains substantially below averages. "Global trade in COVID-19-related products remained strong during the quarter," it says.

Cumulative change in global trade from the start of each recession

Source: UNCTAD calculations based on national statistics.

Major economies recover from 2020 fall

According to the report, import and export trends for some of the world's major trading economies show that with a few exceptions, trade in major economies recovered from the fall of 2020.

However, the large increases are due to the low base for 2020, and trade in many of the major economies was still below 2019 averages. The trend of a stronger recovery for goods relative to services is common to all major economies, the report finds.

It shows that China, India and South Africa fared relatively better than other major economies during Q1 2021.

China's exports, in particular, registered a strong increase not only from 2020 averages but also in relation to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, exports from Russia remained well below 2019 averages.

Trade recovery remains uneven

Trade recovery remains uneven, the report notes, especially among developing countries, with exports from East Asia rebounding substantially faster.

East Asian economies are also behind the recovery of trade among developing countries (South-South trade). When trade figures from East Asian developing economies are excluded, South-South trade remains below averages.

The report shows that in Q1 2021 the value of exports remained below averages for countries with economies in transition, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. Although South America's exports increased relative to Q1 2020, they remained below 2019 averages.

It finds that in Q1 2021 the value of merchandise imports and exports of developing countries was substantially higher compared with Q1 2020 and Q1 2019 (by about 16%).

Also, in Q1 2021 trade continued to rebound not only in sectors related to COVID-19, such as pharmaceuticals, communication and office equipment, but also others like minerals and agrifood.

In contrast, the energy sector continued to lag behind and international trade in transport equipment remained well below averages, the report shows.

More trade growth expected in 2021

The report forecasts that trade will continue growing in 2021, with the growth expected to remain strong in the second half of the year.

"Trade growth is expected to remain stronger for East Asia and developed countries, while still lagging for many other countries," the report says.

The overall forecast for 2021 indicates an increase of about 16% from the lowest point of 2020 (19% for goods and 8% for services).

The value of global trade in goods and services is forecast to reach $6.6 trillion in Q2 2021, equivalent to a year-over-year increase of about 31% relative to the lowest point of 2020 and of about 3% relative to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

But the positive outlook is largely dependent on reducing pandemic restrictions, a persisting positive trend in commodity prices, overall restraints from trade protectionist policies and supportive macroeconomic and fiscal conditions, the report says.

"Nevertheless, fiscal stimulus packages, particularly in developed countries, are expected to strongly support the global trade recovery throughout 2021," the report says. "The value of global trade should also rise due to positive trends across commodity prices."

Still, uncertainty remains about how trade patterns will be shaped throughout the year.

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Global trade's recovery from COVID-19 crisis hits record high

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Trade in goods during the first quarter of 2021 was higher than the pre-pandemic level, but trade in services remained substantially below averages. A container ship leaves the Port of Los Angeles. About 80% of international trade in goods is carried by sea.

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According to the World Bank, global GDP dropped by 4.3 percent in 2020, with consequences felt throughout supply chains and economies. In the United States, for example, between March 2020 and February 2021, there were an estimated 200,000 more permanent business closures than would have been average for the period. The pandemic has had a particularly negative impact on the global tourism economy. At times, international tourism has been almost completely halted, and nearly every country has imposed some form of travel restriction. According to the World Tourism Organization, international tourist visits fell by 84 percent from March to December 2020 compared to the same period the previous year, with the highest drops in Asia, Oceania, and Africa.

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Strategic Intelligence | World Economic Forum

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Strategic insights and contextual intelligence from the World Economic Forum. Explore and monitor the issues and forces driving transformational change across economies, industries and systems.

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Volume of world merchandise trade  (Exports)

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Volume of world merchandise trade  (Exports)

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The ILO estimated that working hours fell by 4.8% in the first
quarter of 2021 and by 4.4% in the second quarter of 2021, or an amount equivalent to 140
million jobs and 127 million full-time jobs, respectively. The ILO also estimated the loss in total
hours worked in the first half of 2021 was equivalent to 5.3% loss in global worker income,
exclusive of government transfer payments and benefits, or an amount equivalent to $1.3 trillion.

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Estimated time for countries to recover:             2021-Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Poland, Germany, Greece and Korea.             

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Estimated time for countries to recover from COVID-19

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Estimated time for countries to recover from COVID-19

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2022-Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Euro area, France, Italy, Canada and Switzerland

2023-OECD, UK, U.S and Ireland

2024- Chile, Czech Rep.; Iceland and Israel

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Covid-19: what will happen to the global economy?