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What escalated the Russia vs Ukraine conflict ?

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What escalated the Russia vs Ukraine conflict ?

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The Russians started a "special military program" in early 2022 and

attacked the border of Ukraine within the same year. The conflict has

impact on the overall economics around the world, causing gas price

crisis,import and exporting industries, and many other crisises.

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Since the invasion of Russia, the world has imposed massive sanctions against Russia in order to force Russia "behave" .

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Russian's media vs the rest of the world are spreading news/ information that are purposely used for their side's excuses.

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Does Crimea escalated the tension ?Why does Russia want to take over Crimea ? and what would happen if Russia reach its purposes?

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Since 2014, after Russia attacked Crimea and violated the Minsk agreements, EU has already imposed several sanctions that includes restrictive (individual) sanctions, economics sanctions, diplomatic and visa restrictions.

The economic sanctions is a "punishment" for Russia and to effectively prevent Russia to continue its aggression.

The individual sanctions aim at people who purposely supporting, financing and implementing actions to violating Ukraine's territory.

The EU also imposed sanctions on Belarus and Iran for involved and supplying Russia during the invasion.

Source: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/

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"It is estimated that in 2022, Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 2.1%. Russia's economy may continue to shrink in 2023. Its GDP is forecast to decline by 2.5% in the worst-case scenario (OECD) or by 0.2% according to the World Bank. The IMF expects growth in 2023 (0.7%)." - European Union.

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Belarus' sanctions of relation with Russia

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Belarus' sanctions of relation with Russia

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The imposition of sanctions strained Belarus's relations with the European Union and other Western countries, the country is also isolated over its alignment with Russia's government. Belarus sought to diversify its relations and reduce dependence on Western and investments. The Belarusian government strengthened economic ties with Russia and other non-Western partners, such as China and Iran, to minimize the impact of sanctions and maintain political stability with the support of other "Western's enemies" countries.

Source: EU restrictive measures against Belarus - consilium. (n.d.-a). https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-belarus/

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Iran's sanctions of relationship with Russia

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Iran's sanctions of relationship with Russia

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The imposition of sanctions on Iran by Western countries, particularly the United States, limited Iran's ability to engage in international trade and finance. Despite sanctions, Russia and Iran continued to strengthen their strategic partnership, particularly in areas such as energy, defense, and regional security. Both countries sought to bypass Western sanctions through alternative financial mechanisms and mutual trade agreements.

Source: Imposing sanctions on entities and individuals in response to ... (n.d.-a). https://www.state.gov/imposing-sanctions-on-entities-and-individuals-in-response-to-irans-transfer-of-military-uavs-to-russia/

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Crimea have massive strategic value for Russia due to its location and military assets. It is a peninsula that could potentially help Russia access to the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea easier through its naval bases, particularly the Sevastopol base, which is closest to Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Control over Crimea enhances Russia's naval capabilities and projection of power in the region, contributing to its military dominance in the Black Sea and against the Western's armies.

Source: Kofman, Michael. "Russia’s Sevastopol Naval Base: Strategic Asset or Liability?" Wilson Center, 2019.

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In 2014, during the unstable status of Ukraine's government as pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych is being dismissed from the country, Russia interverned in Crimea without officials announcements or declaration. The Russia's military occupying strategic moves within the territory, which led to a controversial referendum in 2014 that Crimea voted to join Russia. Russia's annexation of Crimea sparked outrage in Ukraine and worsen the relations between the two countries. The Ukrainian government refused to recognize the legitimacy of the referendum and accused Russia of aggression. Even Crimea is annexed by the Russia's governement, most countries still recognised Crimea as a part of Ukraine.

Sources: "Crimea Crisis: Key Quotes." BBC News, 18 Mar. 2014.

""Ukraine Crisis: Timeline." BBC News, 16 Feb. 2015."

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If Ukraine lost to Russia, the future status of Crimea would depend on the terms of potential peace agreement or settlement negotiated between the two countries. Ukraine could possibly agree to recognize Crimea's annexation by Russia in exchange for concessions or guarantees from Russia, or simply as giving up a part of territory in exchange for peace for the rest of the territory. Even worse, Russia could use the agreement to claim an another part of Ukraine for annexation, which Ukraine may have no other choices but to follow as it has no other ways to prevent further lost. In reality, Russia is having advantages and is slowing pushing Ukraine further back into their territory, an official claim of Crimea as part of Russia is one of the reason that firm the Russia's purpose in this war and it could possibly happen if the situation does not turn in the future.

Source: My own point of view and prediction

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The Russian government uses News and Media for the spreading of propaganda messages which is based on the Kremlin's preferences. Using different words to bend "the truth" that happens in Ukraine, while framing Russia's actions as defensive measures against perceived threat in the future.

Source: Canada, Government of. "Government of Canada." GAC, 22 Jan. 2024, https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/response_conflict-reponse_conflits/crisis-crises/ukraine-fact-fait.aspx?lang=eng.

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Propaganda campaigns often portray the opposing side as a threat, fostering mistrust and hatred among populations. By demonizing the enemy and dehumanizing its people, propaganda creates an "us vs. them" mentality that justifies aggressive actions. Russian propaganda possibly emphasizes the historical and cultural ties between Russia and Ukraine, building an image Ukraine used to belong to Russia and only claiming what used to belong to Russia. Meanwhile Ukrainpropaganda emphasizes Ukrainian national identity and frames Russia as an invader threatening Ukrainian sovereignty.

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Sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have the potential to strengthen Russia's ties with non-Western countries, as Russia seeks alternative partnerships and alliances outside of Western influence. While this may provide Russia with economic and diplomatic support, particularly from countries like Iran, China, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, a shift in alliances could worsen tensions in Ukraine. Strengthened relations with non-Western countries might encourage Russia to adopt a more assured foreign policy stance, as the country can maintain its economic with trade agreements and the exporting industry with non western countries while still operating military activities in Ukraine, which means international sanctions are less effective to Russia's domestic economy and potentially leading to increased aggression towards Ukraine. Even worse, Russia could receive military support from these countries and this would lead to the division between Westerns vs Middle East, North Asia.

Source: My point of view

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Western propaganda against Russia often depicts the Russian government as authoritarian, and aggressive, particularly its actions towards Ukraine. This portrayal aims to shape public opinion and find support for Western policies, including sanctions and diplomatic relations, to weaken Russian influence. Key themes in Western propaganda emphasizing human rights abuses, accusing Russia of engaging in disinformation campaigns and hybrid warfare tactics, framing Russia as a threat to European security.

Source: This is a point of view of mine that I observed from several different articles of Western News talking about Russia, there is no article that prove the point above

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The sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with its annexation of Crimea are a direct consequence of its violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Also, the importance of Crimea has been a starting factor of the Russia's invasion to Ukraine and lead to several addition international sanctions aimed at Russia's economy

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Strengthened relationships with non-Western countries may also facilitate Russia's propaganda efforts, as it could potentially gain access to alternative media platforms and channels sympathetic to its own. This could result in the spread of disinformation and propaganda that further worsen tensions and perpetuates the conflict in Ukraine.