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There is a provider shortage across the US.

The American Medical College estimates a physician shortage between 46,100 and 90,400 by 2025.

Another research study conducted by the AAMC (Association of American Medical Colleges) shows that the shortage can reach as high as 120,000 by 2030

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An increasing aging population - Of all the entirety of the population growth over the next decade those 65 are estimated to account for 50% of that growth by 2030.

Population Growth - The US is projected to grow 11% by the end of 2030

Huge number of retiring physicians

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1. Primary Care

The Study conducted by the AAMC showed there will be a shortage of primary care physicians between 14,800 and 49,300 by 2030.

This is a huge issue because primary care physicians are the first point of contact for the majority of patients. This shortfall would mean less people receiving preventative care which will cause more people to become sick and drive up healthcare cost.

2. Non Primary Care

The same study also showed there will be a shortage of non primary care physicians between 33,800 and 72,700 by the end of 2030

This causes a huge issue as well because that would mean there are less specialist for primary care physicians to refer their patients to

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With the shortage of primary and non primary care physicians, it isn't very hard to imagine the group that will be most effected will be the population.

There are already many rural areas throughout the US who are already experiencing a shortage of physicians. The continuing decline will cause more shortages which will mean less care for the population. The less care a population receives, the sicker they get and the more care they require and so goes the vicious cycle.

For example: according to our textbook, in 2010, 10% of the population lived in large rural areas while only 6.2% of Pediatricians practiced in that area. Similarly, only 5% of the population lived in small rural areas while 1.8% of Pediatricians practiced in that area.

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What can we do to encourage people to become physicians?

First, we need to look at our entire model for providing care. Health Centers have become increasingly more popular. These Health Care Centers are employing more Nurse Practitioners, Physician Assistants and Nurse midwifes instead of Primary Care physicians.

The ACA also released a list of provisions to help solve this issue some of which include:

Increasing funding for more community health centers

Increase funding for the National Health Service Cops, which provides scholarships and loan repayments for students who agree to become primary care physicians

Increase reimbursements for primary care providers under Medicare and Medicaid

Provide more funding to establish nurse-practitioner led clinics

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Physician Workforce Over 65