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We believe the Matt Rosendale will win this election.
Evidence

In the 2016 General election Donald Trump won Montana, making the once blue state a "Purple" state. The reason this makes Rosendale the likely winner is because the views and political stance of the state have shifted, making the once democratic seat for senate more likely to be taken over by the republican party.

Historically Montana has had 22 Senators, eights Republicans and fourteen Democrat. the last Republican Senator was Conrad Burns who served from 1989-2007 (9 years), Jon Tester has served as senator from 2007 to present (about 12 years) making the pendulum of party power ready to swing back the the Republican side.

The other side:
Although the likeliness of Rosendale winning is high, Tester has been in office for a VERY long time and has done good for Montana for a very long time, his representatives trust him and like him and the possibility that the polls may shift is high. But as of now the polls are in-favor of Matt Rosendale's win for Montana, and I believe that due to Montana now political stance of being a Purple state the chance of Rosendale winning is very high.

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Jon Tester

Senator Jon Tester is a third-generation Montana farmer, and  former school teacher who has deep roots in hard work, responsibility and accountability.

Tester is already a Senator(aka:incumbent).

There is no open seat.

In Jon Testers primary race he did not face a Democratic primary challenger and defeated his Republican rival by four percentage points; while this seems like he is likely to win in 2016 Donald Trump won Montana by 20 points, making Testers seat for senate a target for Republican takeover.

Jon Tester earned a degree in music at College of Great Falls and then took over the Tester Farm in 1978.  In 2005, Jon’s colleagues chose him to serve as Montana Senate President.  The people of Montana elected Jon to the U.S. Senate in 2006 and again in 2012.

Jon Tester is more moderately left of the Democratic party due to his outspoken voice in rural America, his avocation for small business; but still like a true Democrat he advocates for women's rights, responsible energy development, and quality health care.

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Background Info:

1. Has 3 sons

2. Ran for state Legislature in 2010 for Helena, Montana

3. In 2014, he was elected by state senate colleagues in Montana to run for majority leader

4. He is 1 of 5 members on the Montana State land Board

5. Used to work in real estate, real estate development, and land management

Not incumbent

There is no open seat

Relevant Primary Info:
He won with an unofficial 33% of the vote, Matt Rosendale is closing in on Jon Tester in the general election. This is due to Montana's 2016 vote on the election between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton.
Info on candidacy:
In 2010, Matt was recruited by his neighbors in Glendive to run for the Montana Legislature because of his conservative values . In 2014, Matt was elected by his Montana colleagues in the State Senate as the Majority Leader. In February of 2016, Matt announced his candidacy to be Montana’s State Auditor.
Do they fit there political platform:
Rosendale is a strong supporter of President Trump. He true to his Republican party stance on is views on taxes, immigration, abortion, the use of public lands, veterans affairs, the repeal of Obama care, and the right of the 2nd amendment.

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Democratic Makeup:

Montana’s population is approx. 1.06 million

94.8 speak English

66,000 people in Montana are of Native American heritage

Median age is approx. 39.8

Ratio of females to males = 49.7% : 50.3%

Race: 89.1% Caucasian, 6.6% Native North American, 2.6% two or more races, .7% Asian, 5% other races, .4% African American.

Religion: 65% Christian, 5% Non- Christian, 30% Non-Affiliated with any religion.

Montana voter turnout:

63.6% in the last election= 15th in relation to all states.

Montana voter laws:

Must be registered as required by law.

Must be 18 years or older before or on next election.

Must be a citizen of the United States

Must have lived in Montana for at least 30 days.

Voter ID is Montana Drivers License

Cannot vote if:

You’re a convicted felon serving a sentence in a penal institution.

You’ve been judged in a court of law to be of unsound mind.

Absentee Ballot:

A voter has to fill out an Application for Absentee Ballot to have ballots for when you are eligible automate mailed to you.

Voter Registration Deadline:

Regular= Oct 9, 2018

Late= Oct 10-Nov 6, 2018

Early Voting?:

Montana does not have traditional early voting, but you can cast an in-person Absetee Ballot starting no later than 30 days before the election

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John Tester:

1. Strongly believes in the 2nd amendment

2. Opposes same sex marriage

3. Supports Abortion

His views are mostly in-line with the democratic party, though his views do lead right

Matt Rosendale:

1. Against abortion on all circumstances

2. Full repeal of Obamacare

3. Don't check if gun buyers are on terrorist watch-list

His views are in-line with the republican ideology

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Jon Tester is being endorsed by Patagonia
This Matters because he is being being supported by other political parties
Matt Rosendale is being endorsed by
Crow Tribe
This is a point of conflict because Jon tester is saying that the endorsement is for him but Matt argues otherwise

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John Tester:46%
Matt Rosendale:49%

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Donald Trump

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AFL-CIO

AFT-Solidarity

Alliance For Retired Americans

America First Action

American Bankers Association

C3 Pac

Some are out of state spenders

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CBS:
worked with YouGov which is a online polling company. Their information is pretty extensive I guess. They used the margin of error function to get their estimates from 543 registered voters

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DataDhrumil. “Montana U.S. Senate Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/montana/.

“Polls.” RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Montana Senate - Rosendale vs. Tester, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html.

“Rosendale for U.S. Senate.” Rosendale for U.S. Senate, www.mattformontana.com/.

Jon Tester | U.S. Senator for Montana, 6 Aug. 2012, www.tester.senate.gov/.

“Montana Election Information.” Election Protection, 866ourvote.org/state/montana/#1520425464592-0f0faec4-f736.

“In The News.” Montana Secretary of State – Corey Stapleton, sosmt.gov/.

Michels, Holly. “Poll Shows Tester with Slight Lead over Rosendale in Montana's U.S. Senate Race.” Helena Independent Record, 23 Oct. 2018, helenair.com/news/government-and-politics/poll-shows-tester-with-slight-lead-over-rosendale-in-montana/article_5cb2528a-7cb6-5476-823a-96be4c5387dc.html.

Barber, Ellison, and Andrew O'Reilly. “Montana Libertarian Candidate Walks Back Endorsement of GOP Nominee Rosendale in Tight Senate Race.” Fox News, FOX News Network, www.foxnews.com/politics/montana-libertarian-candidate-walks-back-endorsement-gop-nominee-rosendale-in-tight-senate-race.

“The Latest: Montana Senate Race Focus on Veterans.” U.S. News & World Report, U.S. News & World Report, www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2018-11-04/the-latest-candidates-compete-for-falling-number-of-voters.

Press, MATTHEW BROWN Associated. “Libertarian Candidate Backs Rosendale in Montana's U.S. Senate Race.” Helena Independent Record, 31 Oct. 2018, helenair.com/news/government-and-politics/libertarian-candidate-backs-rosendale-in-montana-s-u-s-senate/article_e7525245-9365-5d54-92d9-8e02b5216ce3.html.