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Pre-seminar online sessions: January 4 – 5, 2023
Seminar dates: January 9 – 13, 2023 (Monday– Friday, in person)

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Lecture 3: Global Energy Outlook and Risks: Implications for SE Asia (online)

Speaker: Edward Cunningham

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Europe's dash for LNG makes case against Asian gas investment stronger - Carbon Tracker Initiative

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A potent cocktail of rallying demand as economies continue to emerge from the turmoil brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic has been confronted by geopolitical upheaval that has triggered dramatic shifts in supply-side economics.

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Lecture 7: Global impacts on SEA

Speaker: Carlyle a. Thayer

This is the second of a two-part lecture. This presentation focuses on the impact of current global developments on Southeast Asian. It is divided into six parts. Part 1 summarises the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the region and the current state of play. Part 2 provides a detailed framework for understanding China’s rise under six headings: Xi Jin-ping’s China Dream, what Xi aspires to, military modernization, continental and maritime security, Taiwan reunification and the South China Sea. Part 3 explores China-U.S. strategic competition by examining U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, the formation of the Quad and AUKUS, maritime domain awareness, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Part four analyses the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on Southeast Asia and implications for North Korea and Taiwan. Part 6 provides a summary and offers six conclusions on the impact of COVID-19, Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s post-COVID economic growth prospects, global economic growth, global polarisation, and globalisation and decoupling.

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Pre-seminar online sessions on January 4-5, 2023: Zoom
In-person seminar from January 9 – 13, 2023:
RENAISSANCE RIVERSIDE HOTEL SAIGON

No 15, Tôn Đức Thắng Street, Bến Nghé Ward,

District 1, Hồ Chí Minh City

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Objectives

Expand YSEALI fellows’ knowledge and skills of topics related to economic integration in Southeast Asia1, both intra- and extra-regional, that can be applied in participants' careers.

Build a network with other Southeast Asian professionals for future collaboration in public affairs, including economic development.

Learning outcomes

Upon graduation, fellows are expected to have a comprehensive picture of the Southeast Asian landscape of economic integration, including emerging trends, opportunities, challenges, and solutions. Fellows would also understand and apply basic economic frameworks and policy tools to analyzing cross-border economic issues.

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About 35 YSEALI fellows who are young professionals between the ages of 25-40, highly qualified and motivated, from all 10 ASEAN member states and Timor-Leste.

Participants are required to commit at least 4 online hours for pre-seminar tasks (group assignments) from January 4 – 5, 2022, and at least 42 hours to in-person seminar activities in Vietnam from January 9 –13, 2022.

Therefore, participants are highly recommended to arrange their work to be fully committed during the period to participate productively in and achieve the most from the seminar.

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Topic 1 – Overview of Southeast Asian economic integration and basic economic frameworks

As the background for the whole seminar, this section first introduces frameworks as well as policy tools to understand and examine basic relevant issues. It then provides an overview of Southeast Asian economic integration.

e.g., the economic growth of Southeast Asia, the establishment, evolution, and outcomes of the ASEAN FTAs, BRI, RCEP, CP-TPP, and IPEF.

Topic 2 – Global impacts on Southeast Asia’s extra-economic integration

After the fundamentals in the previous section, this part will investigate the external economic integration of Southeast Asia. First, it addresses the bilateral connections between Southeast Asian economies and the world’s leading economic powers: the US, China, EU, Japan. It also analyzes the impacts of multilateral linkage such as FTAs between ASEAN and other partners, RCEP, BRI, CP-TPP, IPEF. Second, it probes into the influence on Southeast Asian economic integration of global issues such as COVID, supply chain disruption, the Ukraine war, inflation, energy tension, and climate change. Finally, it will study the geopolitical impacts on the region, including the US-China confrontation, the Taiwan crisis, and maritime disputes.

Topic 3 – ASEAN’s intra-economic integration: opportunities and challenges

This section dives deep into an important but under-discussed theme: the economic connections among ASEAN members. It will address critical issues of intra-integration, including the trends, opportunities, and challenges.

e.g., FDI and trade among Southeast Asian nations, the impacts of AEC, and how to intensify and leverage internal linkages as a buffer against external turbulence.

Topic 4 – The role of national policy-making and political economy

Economic integration is substantially affected by both internal and external contexts. The national factors (such as political economy, domestic reforms, and policymaking) are often under-studied in literature. As the seminar places priority on public policy perspectives, this section examines the impacts of national factors on economic integration.

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The seminar is conducted in diverse formats to maximize the engagement of participants, including lectures, field trips, panel discussions, team projects (discussed below), and class discussions.

Team project: fellows from at least three nations will work in a team and work on a project related to the seminar theme. They are assigned in groups and start working on the project the week before the seminar. At the end of the seminar, they will deliver a presentation on various issues relevant to the seminar theme e.g., economic growth, digital economy, FDI, infrastructure, supply chain, policymaking, impacts of global challenges...of one or several Southeast Asian nations or major cities or major industries. Comparative and cross-nation analysis and views are appreciated in these team projects which are expected to add practical, diverse, bottom-up, and updated examples and perspectives of Southeast Asia to the seminar.

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There are about 30 sessions in total over two weeks (Monday – Friday), 6 sessions/day, witheach session lasts for 90 minutes.
There will be 10 lectures, 2 panel discussions, 1 field trip, 2 workshops for leadership and soft skills, 10 sessions for teamwork and team presentations, 1 welcoming session, 1 seminar review session and 1 closing session.

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Gather at Lobby
→ Lunch at Restaurant

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Team building

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Dinner

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Opening ceremony

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Networking and cultural session

Location: Common Area, FUV

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Travel back to hotel

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Lunch break

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Lecture 1: How Nations Connect

Speaker: David Dapice

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Lecture 2: Drivers of economic growth and strategic priorities for building sustainable prosperity in ASEAN
Speaker: Vu Minh Khuong

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Leadership 1
Speaker: Suzanne C. de Janasz

Influencing without authority

Changes in organizational structures—fewer management levels, wider spans of authority, existence of work teams—have led to fewer people with position power to “command” others to perform tasks.  The effective use of informal power and influence has become more important than ever.  In this workshop, we will briefly discuss evidence-based strategies for influencing, especially when one lacks power or position to “require” others to do what you want.  Participants will view and discuss a short film clip and make a plan for an upcoming persuasion or influence challenge in their workplace.

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Dinner

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Teamwork

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For Asian economies dependent on imported fossil fuels, volatile prices since 2020 have caused fuel shortages, exorbitant government subsidy burdens, inflation, food scarcity, and political instability. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to exacerbate commodity price volatility, which undermines Asian countries' economic growth and obstructs the region's arduous recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to exacerbate commodity price volatility, which undermines Asian countries' economic growth and obstructs the region's arduous recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

LNG prices, for example, were already susceptible to upward pressure due to interregional competition for cargoes between Asia and Europe, low European storage levels, limited piped exports from Russia to Europe, and harsh weather throughout the 2021-22 winter buying season. In October 2021, Asian LNG prices reached their highest level ever, at US$56 per million British thermal units (MMBtus).

The Russian invasion now adds upward pressure to LNG prices. Due to the risks of Russian piped gas to Europe, European countries seek to boost LNG purchases, further tightening the global market. This has knock-on effects on prices in Asia, which bounced to US$37/MMBtu. Some experts anticipate that LNG prices over winter 2022 could be even higher than record prices last year.

In Bangladesh, the government increased subsidies following sky-high LNG prices in 2021, but the burden became too much to bear. In January, regulators proposed large hikes in gas and power tariffs, sparking protests. Amidst the upturn in commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, state-run oil and gas companies are already incurring losses due to high import prices. The government will continue to face a choice between increasing subsidies, hiking tariffs further, or going without fuel altogether.

In the Philippines, oil prices have increased for nine straight weeks, and the government has warned that volatility in global commodity prices will continue to drive up the price of local goods. The peso has depreciated relative to the US dollar due to higher cost, foreign currency-denominated imports. Meanwhile, high daily COVID cases in the country along with inflation fears threaten to further undermine economic activity.

The third implication of the conflict is that fossil fuel companies are likely to argue that the world needs more fossil fuel infrastructure, not less. In the wake of the invasion, Japan's JERA announced a partnership with ExxonMobil to build a new LNG import facility in Vietnam, Australia said it would target emerging LNG importers in Asia, and Pakistan's Prime Minister travelled to Moscow to discuss a pipeline in Pakistan that would carry re-gasified LNG from the country's southern coast to northern provinces.

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Although fossil fuels are often seen as reliable, secure fuels for power generation, the opposite is true: supply of imported fuels is constantly at the mercy of unpredictable disruptions.

Therefore, the continued buildout of LNG and other fossil fuel import infrastructure in Asia will only reinforce vulnerabilities related to energy security and economic growth. Although fossil fuels are often seen as reliable, secure fuels for power generation, the opposite is true: supply of imported fuels is constantly at the mercy of unpredictable disruptions.

The second lesson is that low-cost, domestic renewables represent a crucial hedge against the volatility of globally traded fossil fuels because renewables like wind and solar do not require fuel inputs. Instead, renewable energy costs are typically quoted in one, all-in-life-cycle price, allowing energy sector planners to assess future power prices more accurately for end-users and the economy.
Sam Reynolds is an Energy Finance Analyst at IEEFA.

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Russia-Ukraine conflict adds impetus to Asia's energy transition

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For Asian economies dependent on imported fossil fuels, volatile prices since 2020 have caused fuel shortages, exorbitant government subsidy burdens, inflation, food scarcity, and political instability. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to exacerbate commodity price volatility, which undermines Asian countries' economic growth and obstructs the region's arduous recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Lecture 4: US-China Decoupling? Not Yet: Analysis and Implications (online)
Speaker: Edward Cunningham

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Cunningham YSEALI Decoupling Talk 1.2023

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Note: Only need to read the Foreword and Executive Summary

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Lunch break

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Lecture 5: The Geopolitics of SEA

Speaker: Carlyle a. Thayer

This is the first of a two-part lecture. It focuses in-depth on the various factors that shaped Southeast Asia as a region and which led to the establishment of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN). The presentation is divided into four parts. Part 1 identifies the major developments shaping Southeast Asian’s identity in the pre-colonial epoch, the colonial era, Japanese interregnum, struggle for independence, and post-independence regionalism. Part 2 examines the development of ASEAN with respect to seven themes: the ASEAN Way, decision-making, institutionalisation, membership expansion, economic integration, community building and external relations. Part 3 examines ASEAN’s multilateral mechanisms, including the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN Plus Three,  East Asia Summit, ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Plus, and Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum. With this as background, Part 4 discusses seven current geopolitical issues: intra-mural differences among ASEAN members, development gap, Mekong River sub-regionalism, post-military coup Myanmar, claimants and non-claimants in the South China Sea, review of the ASEAN Charter and relations with major powers.

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Lecture 6: The political economy of economic integration: the case of Vietnam (online)
Speaker: Vu Thanh Tu Anh

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Leadership 2
Speaker: Maury Peiperl
The Challenge of Change

Pre-class Assignment:
“Please think about a change that your organization has gone through, or is going through. What was the reason for the change, how is it being done, and how well did it go / is it going? Why? Please come prepared to discuss.”

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Managing Change - Introduction 3rd Edition

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Dinner

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Teamwork

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Lecture 8: Intra-regional integration (trade, investment)
Speaker: Vu Minh Khuong

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Lunch break

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Field trip (VSIP – Binh Duong province)

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Dinner

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Teamwork

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Lecture 9: A Strong Dollar and Weak World Economy?
Speaker: David Dapice

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Lecture 10: The role of policymaking in economic integration
Speaker: Le Thai Ha

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Lunch break

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Panel discussion 1: SEA economic integration – FDI and manufacturing sectors

Panelists:

1. Frederick (Fred) R. Burke, Senior Advisor, Baker & McKenzie (Vietnam) Ltd.

2. Michael Luong, CEO, Asia Clean Capital Vietnam Company Ltd.

3. Kheng Joo Ung, Managing Director, First Solar Vietnam Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

4. Tommy Koh, Senior Assistant Director, ASEAN Division, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore

Moderator: Huynh Trung Dung, Lead Faculty for Public Policy, YSEALI Academy

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Panel discussion 2: SEA economic integration – Services and start-ups

Panelists:

1. Ly Qui Trung, Ph.D., Adjunct Professor and Senior Advisor to the President of Western Sydney University in Australia

2. Le Thi Anh Nguyet (Ms.), Ph.D., Legal and Compliance Manager, Fulbright University Vietnam

3. Tommy Koh, Senior Assistant Director, ASEAN Division, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore

4. Le Thai Ha (Ms.), Ph.D., Managing Director of the VinFuture Prize, VinFuture Foundation, former Director of Research of the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, Fulbright University Vietnam

Moderator: Huynh Trung Dung, Lead Faculty for Public Policy, YSEALI Academy

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Comments sent by Michael Luong - Panel 1 (absent due to health emergency): 

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Comments sent by Michael Luong - Panel 1 (absent due to health emergency): 

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The Ukraine crisis has extensive economic consequences on Southeast Asia (SEA) region, even though the SEA countries do not have direct economic links with Russia.

The inflation has been letting up. Commodity prices, especially oil has become expensive.

In Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, the impact of rising oil prices is evident in the transport, housing, electricity, gas, and other sectors. Malaysia just announced a 30-50% increase of electricity tariff for manufacturing sectors who export goods. Electricity tariff is sensitive to movement of global fuel prices.

Asian nations, particularly those who are heavily dependent on the imported fuels should take measures for energy security.

Energy efficiency could also go a long way in controlling soaring oil prices. However, gradually transitioning towards renewable energy sources to drive economic growth is the only way to reduce oil dependency.

Indeed, SEA countries, Vietnam pertain huge geographical potential for renewable energy development. Policies and incentive mechanisms have been in place to facilitate the gradual renewable energy transition.

Just recently on Dec 14, Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) mobilizes US$15.5 billion to support Vietnamese green transition, 3 key targets:

1.    reduce the volume of emissions generated by the electricity sector.

2.    reduce the number of coal-fired power plants in Vietnam

3.    Develop more renewable energy and more effective energy infrastructure

It is obvious that green transition is an inevitable movement for Vietnam's sustainable development. And it is exceptionally valid to adapt to the Ukraine crisis.

Furthermore, the continued conflict could also lead to a significant reallocation of supply chains, benefiting some countries like Bangladesh, India or Vietnam.

It means that growing demands of MNCs for renewable energy to achieve their carbon emission reduction targets and enhance competitive advantages in terms of ESG compliance are foreseen.

Michael Luong, CEO, Asia Clean Capital Vietnam Company Ltd.

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Teamwork

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Dinner

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Teamwork

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Team presentation 1

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Team presentation 2

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Lunch break

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Seminar review and evaluation

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Closing ceremony

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Gala Dinner & Cultural Events

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Team Project Group 3 ASEAN Perspectives on Economic Integration

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Yseali Academy at Fulbright University Vietnam | Ho Chi Minh City | Facebook

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YSEALI Academy at Fulbright University Vietnam (@ysealiacademy) • Instagram photos and videos

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If the problem continues, contact the site owner.

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YSEALI Public Policy Seminar - Google Drive

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Dear Fellows!

Welcome to the YSEALI Academy Public Policy Seminar on Southeast Asia' Economic Integration Amid Global Turbulence!

This Padlet provides you with the key information of the seminar, including the schedule, the lecture slides and readings, team project instructions, and background materials.

Please read all the relevant materials and do the assignment (if any) before class. For speakers' slides and unpublished materials, please use them for the seminar only and do not circulate them without the permission of the authors.

If you have any questions or comments, please email us at yseali@fulbright.edu.vn

Thank you and wish you a fruitful seminar!

The YSEALI Academy Team