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Local early warning systems for drought – Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?

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Local early warning systems for drought – Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?

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Abstract

Limited application and use of forecast information restrict smallholder farmers' ability to deal with drought in proactive ways. This paper explores the barriers that impede use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in two pilot communities in Limpopo Province. Current interpretation, translation and mediation of national SCF to the local context is weak. A local early warning system (EWS) was developed that incorporated hydrological modelled information based on national SCF, locally monitored rainfall and soil moisture by a wireless sensor network, and signs from indigenous climate indicators. We assessed to what degree this local EWS could improve interpretation of SCF and increase understanding and uptake by farmers. Local extension staff and champion farmers were found to play important knowledge brokering roles that could be strengthened to increase trust of SCF. The local EWS provided added value to national SCF by involving community members in local monitoring, enacting knowledge interplay with indigenous knowledge and simplifying and tailoring SCF and hydrological information to the local context. It also helped farmers mentally prepare for upcoming conditions even if many do not currently have the adaptive mindsets, economic resources or pre-conditions to positively respond to SCF information.

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Local early warning systems for drought - Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?

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Limited application and use of forecast information restrict smallholder farmers' ability to deal with drought in proactive ways. This paper explores the barriers that impede use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in two pilot communities in Limpopo Province. Current interpretation, translation and mediation of national SCF to the local context is weak.

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Drought Monitoring and Impact Assessment Toolbox which provides straightforward and up-to-date data and warnings on the drought status of a region, and the seve

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InfoSequía. A tool for Drought Early Warning

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InfoSequía. A tool for Drought Early Warning

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Concept

To ensure the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of semi-arid regions in the world under climate and land use changes and more recurrent and intense droughts, we need tools able to: a) anticipate the onset of droughts and water scarcity and provide early warnings; and b) supply key information on how to effectively manage and mitigate their potential consequences.

InfoSequía is a Drought Monitoring and Impact Assessment Toolbox which provides straightforward and up-to-date data and warnings on the drought status of a region, and the severity and spatial extent of its impacts. InfoSequía is offered as a site- and user-specific tailored IT-toolbox, with a flexible and modular architecture integrated by tools for:

1. The detection, surveillance and monitoring of drought periods based on satellite-based and social-media data;

2. The prediction and spatial analysis of their potential hydrological impacts, and

3. Supporting users and decision makers on the more efficient management strategies available to mitigate drought consequences.

InfoSequía outputs are provided through pdf bulletins, or a web-mapping app from which all the data can be interactively queried and downloaded. Due to its flexibility and scalable architecture, InfoSequía can be easily integrated in other Drought Early Warning Systems or Control/Information Centres.

FutureWater applications

InfoSequía's components have been developed by FutureWater and tested under computer-based and operational conditions during more than 5 years. It has a validated TRL8

Potential beneficiaries and end-users of InfoSequía are:

1. Water Basin & Regional Environmental Authorities (e.g. drought monitoring)

2. Forestry and Fire-Risk managers (e.g fire-risk monitoring)

3. Farmer associations and syndicates (e.g. crop-yield impacts, water allocation risk assessment, drought forecasting)

4. Insurance and reinsurance companies (e.g. indirect-index insurance products)

Related projects

InfoSequia-4CAST combines historical and up-to-date observations of satellite-based meteorological and agricultural drought indices with climate variability indices, to generate seasonal outlooks of water supply and crop yield failure alerts. These impact-based indicators are computed using a simple, robust and easily understandable statistical forecasting-modelling framework. By making use of multi-sensor, state-of-the...

TWIGA aims to provide actionable geo-information on weather, water, and climate in Africa through innovative combinations of new in situ sensors and satellite-based geo-data. With the foreseen new services, TWIGA expects to reach twelve million people within the four years of the project, based on sustainable business models. The TWIGA...

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To ensure the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of semi-arid regions in the world under climate and land use changes and more recurrent and intense droughts, we need tools able to: a) anticipate the onset of droughts and water scarcity and provide early warnings; and b) supply key information on how to effectively manage and mitigate their potential consequences.

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Technical Assistance on Drought Information and Early Warning Systems

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Technical Assistance on Drought Information and Early Warning Systems

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To address the recent drought problems in Bolivia, FutureWater and Deltares have been asked to provide recommendations on drought early warning and drought information systems, both on technical aspects as well as on institutional issues. The Dutch Risk Reduction Team has held stakeholder consultations with the Ministry of Environment and Water, the La Paz and Potosí drinking water companies, and the municipality of La Paz, among others. Also close collaboration with a related effort of the World Bank took place. A report was delivered with recommendations for improved drought preparedness in Bolivia.

The Ministry of Water and Environment in Bolivia has asked the Dutch Government for support in relation to the drought issues they face. Last week, a team consisting of team leader Otto de Keizer (Deltares) and Johannes Hunink (FutureWater) left for Bolivia. As a result of El Niño, the country is struggling with a long and extreme drought period, which in November 2016 led to an acute water shortage in the capital La Paz and other areas of the country.

The Dutch government together with the Dutch water sector founded the Dutch Risk Reduction Team (DRR-Team). With the DRR instrument the Netherlands is able to cover the entire disaster management cycle from mitigation, preparedness and response to recovery.

To address the drought problem in Bolivia, the DRR-Team has been asked to provide recommendations on drought early warning and drought information systems, both on technical aspects as well as on institutional issues. The team has held talks with the Ministry of Environment and Water, the La Paz and Potosí drinking water companies, and the municipality of La Paz. In addition, they also consulted with SENAMHI: the National Hydrometeorological Institute. The DRR-Team drew up with a team of experts of the World Bank that supports Bolivia with several necessary investments to reduce vulnerability to drought.

Related publications

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DRR: Technical Assistance on Drought Information and Early Warning Systems

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To address the recent drought problems in Bolivia, FutureWater and Deltares have been asked to provide recommendations on drought early warning and drought information systems, both on technical aspects as well as on institutional issues.

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National Integrated Drought Information System:drought monitoring, forecasting, planning, and information at national, state, and local levels

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National Integrated Drought Information System:drought monitoring, forecasting, planning, and information at national, state, and local levels

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Regional DEWS Coordination

NIDIS has developed regional drought early warning systems (DEWS) throughout the United States, where local networks of researchers, resource managers, policymakers, the private sector, academics, and other stakeholders share information and actions to help their communities cope with drought.

A DEWS coordinates this network of key regional partners so that decision makers and citizens can systematically approach drought monitoring and forecasting integration when planning and preparing for drought. Regional DEWS encourage innovation by integrating new, locally relevant drought information, and supporting the introduction and testing of technologies that detect and communicate drought risks and warnings.

Regional DEWS activities focus on five key areas for drought early warning (DEWS components): observation and monitoring, prediction and forecasting, planning and preparedness, communication and outreach, and interdisciplinary research and applications.

The table below shows ongoing activities related to drought early warning across the United States. Each activity falls into one or more of the five key areas of drought early warning systems (DEWS components): observation and monitoring, planning and preparedness, prediction and forecasting, communication and outreach, and interdisciplinary research and applications.

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Skip to main content The .gov means it's official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site. The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

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An expert perspective: Discovering the importance of early warning systems in drought management

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An expert perspective: Discovering the importance of early warning systems in drought management

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Droughts are impacting countries and climate all over the world. Australia is currently experiencing droughts which are so severe, that areas corresponding to the size of Denmark and Belgium combined, have burst in to flames and almost half a billion animals are affected - making it one of the worst droughts in decades. However, one could say that the consequences of developing countries are far more fatal in threatning not only the country's economy, but also affecting the quality of life in terms of health, drinking water and food supplies. Even though some areas are more affected than others by droughts, there is a general consensus among scientists that regions currently experiencing severe droughts will get drier and regions with regular rainy seasons, will see heavier rainfall due to climate changes.

As challenges and damages posed by droughts remain highly complex, there is an on-going need to find efficient ways to deal with the issues. To get an expert opinion on the subject, we asked Bertrand Richaud, Water Resources Expert at DHI, to share his perspective about the use of technology in drought monitoring and early warning systems (EWS) as an important step towards proactively enhance drought resilience and mitigate its risks.

Q1: What are the biggest challenges related to drought management that we are experiencing today?

In my opinion, the impacts of droughts are quite obvious. Looking at both developing and developed countries, droughts are becoming more and more common. This underlines the need to be better prepared for drought events because we know they will become more frequent in the future. Previously, droughts were something that was highly associated with vulnerable areas typical in developing countries. However, the interesting part here is that throughout the past year, we have seen how droughts are becoming more and more impactful in European countries. For example, the summer of 2019 was quite tough and had quite a big impact on agriculture. On the other hand, drought is a phenomenon that develops slowly - it does not happen overnight. When a drought is discovered, it is in most cases already happening. Therefore, it is essential to be able to predict and detect droughts early.

Q2: How would you explain today's drought management issues?

In large parts of the world, mainly in developing countries, drought monitoring systems that can help monitor and predict a progressing drought are not available. However, with remote sensing technology and satellite systems, we can monitor droughts almost anywhere. Today we have an opportunity with the increasing availability of remote sensing technologies, but we need to make use of the monitored data for early warning systems and detection of droughts.

Q3: So, what are the opportunities and advantages of monitoring and early detection of droughts?

First of all, efficient drought management starts with identifying and monitoring the drought at an early stage to obtain relevant information regarding hydrologic and water supply conditions and trends. This is where early drought monitoring, and warning systems could be helpful. Early warning systems provide timely and effective information to prepare for actions that can minimise the impact of droughts. Drought monitoring systems can be used to identify impacted areas as well as provide information about the current state of a drought and how it develops over time. Thereby, allowing decision-makers to monitor the development of the drought throughout various stages and giving them sufficient lead-time to decrease risks associated to crop and food loss.

Q4: In which ways can technology be used in drought monitoring and early warning systems?

The technology that is used to monitor droughts in early warning systems is based on typical remote sensing data such rainfall, soil moisture or vegetation cover. Basically, the early warning system collects the data in near real-time and calculates indicators that visualise specific areas where the drought may develop and thereby identify the areas that are especially impacted. Together with data from ground stations, remote sensing serves as an efficient way to monitor how the drought is progressing and identify critical areas where local authorities should focus their efforts to minimise drought impact and thus mitigate drought risk.

Overall, I would say that technology is a very important part of the preliminary stage of drought management in order to adopt a proactive approach to addressing the issues related to droughts. By proactively investing in early warning systems, decision-makers can focus more on preservation as opposed to recovery. It is important to understand not just where the most drought affected areas are, but also who and what is vulnerable and why. Early-warning and monitoring systems that provide information on the frequency and severity of droughts can better identify vulnerable communities and areas. This encourages early action and can lead to the development of different mitigation measures such as water harvesting, restoring pastures, improving irrigation schemes and implementing Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM).

Learn more about DHI's expertise and solutions in the field of drought monitoring and remote sensing or explore the UNCCD Drought Toolbox Early Warning System tool developed by the UNEP-DHI Collaboration centre.

About the author

Bertrand Richaud, Water Resources Expert

With 10+ years of experience in water resources management, Bertrand Richaud has played a key role in building DHI's applications for drought monitoring and early warning systems. By applying DHI's technology and knowledge in various places around the world, Bertrand Richaud has been involved in several drought research initiatives as well as trained a large number of local engineers in the use of DHI's tools.

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View all posts by Bertrand Richaud, Water Resources Expert

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An expert perspective: Discovering the importance of early warning systems in drought management | DHI Reservoir

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Droughts are impacting countries and climate all over the world. Australia is currently experiencing droughts which are so severe, that areas corresponding to the size of Denmark and Belgium combined, have burst in to flames and almost half a billion animals are affected - making it one of the worst droughts in decades.

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WMO & GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme

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WMO & GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme

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Provides advice and guidelines to communities, countries and regions affected by drought through the Integrated Drought Management HelpDesk

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Communication Structures and Decision Making Cues and Criteria to Support Effective Drought Warning in Central Malawi

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Communication Structures and Decision Making Cues and Criteria to Support Effective Drought Warning in Central Malawi

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IHE DELFT Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands

510 An Initiative of The Netherlands Red Cross, The Hague, Netherlands

Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, Regional Government Offices, Blantyre, Malawi

Early warning systems trigger early action and enable better disaster preparedness. People-centered dissemination and communication are pivotal for the effective uptake of early warnings. Current research predominantly focuses on sudden-onset hazards, such as floods, ignoring considerable differences with slow-onset hazards, such as droughts. We identify the essential factors contributing to effective drought dissemination and communication using the people-centered approach advocated in the WMOs Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Framework (MHEWS). We use semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and focus group discussions with small-scale farmers in the Mangochi and Salima Districts of Malawi. We show that the timely release of seasonal forecast, the tailoring of the drought warning content (and its timing) to agricultural decision making, and the provision of several dissemination channels enhance trust and improve uptake of drought warning information by farmers. Our analysis demonstrates that farmers seek, prepare, and respond to drought warning information when it is provided as advice on agricultural practices, rather than as weather-related information. The information was found to be useful where it offers advice on the criteria and environmental cues that farmers can use to inform their decisions in a timely manner. Based on our findings, we propose that by focusing on enhancing trust, improving information uptake and financial sustainability as key metrics, the MHEWS can be adapted for use in monitoring the effectiveness of early warning systems.

Introduction

The intensification of climate-related disasters and their catastrophic impacts are increasingly affecting the most vulnerable populations ( UN, 2019). To reduce the impacts disasters have, approaches are shifting from humanitarian response-driven strategies toward preparedness and resilience-building with local communities as part of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) ( Staal, 2015; UNDRR, 2015; Hilhorst, 2018), with an emphasis on early warning systems (EWS). The 7th global target of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction ( UNDRR, 2015) calls for substantial improvements in multi-hazard early warning systems. Dissemination and communication of warning information is a key and challenging aspect of such early warnings systems, and need to be developed effectively to help reduce the harm caused by extreme weather events ( Taylor et al., 2018). Ultimately, the effectiveness of EWS depends on whether warnings trigger the taking of early preventative action by end-users ( Rai et al., 2020).

To facilitate the development of warnings that are actionable, a people-centered paradigm has been promoted. The essential elements of this paradigm-community engagement, integration of local perceptions and information tailored to those at risk-are recognized to enhance trust in the warning information and increase its uptake ( WMO, 2015, 2018). The MHEWS framework ( WMO, 2018) has been developed by the WMO from the Sendai framework and provides guidelines on the development of an effective people-centered approach to communication and dissemination of early warning information. Aligned with the MHEWS, emerging approaches-such as impact-based forecasting and the use of adapted and local communication channels and services-have helped transform hazard-only forecast data into useful information for those at risk by incorporating peoples' perception of risks and needs and improving local understanding of a hazard's potential impact ( Sivakumar, 2006; Luther et al., 2017; Taylor et al., 2018; WMO, 2018). Recent examples from Kenya and Zimbabwe-such as the development of local media (e.g., a local community radio), using local languages in communication and extension services, and integrating local knowledge-show that such approaches improve the contextualization of information, increase the sense of ownership in the messages delivered, and enhance trust, and thus uptake, of warning information ( Sivakumar, 2006; Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014; Andersson et al., 2019). EWS user needs and their perception of risks are context-specific elements that must be considered to provide enough evidence of a threat and prompt early actions by those at risk ( Choo, 2009; Parker et al., 2009; Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014). Context relevant social and environmental cues and criteria also closely relate to agro-climatic indices, measures of an aspect of the climate that has specific agricultural significance, as Mittal et al. (2020) (this issue, submitted) defined for Malawi. Environmental cues are environmental indicators that exhibit the hazard, and social cues relate to indicators present in the social environment of the user ( Choo, 2009).

Current early warning systems have, however, mainly concentrated on hazards associated with immediate impacts, such as floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes, and less on slowly developing hazards such as droughts. For the latter, the development of early warning processes is challenging as drought definitions and perceptions vary from place to place ( Monacelli et al., 2005). Drought is a hazard that has been characterized as a natural long-term phenomenon with cumulative impacts ( Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014), initiated by a prolonged deficiency in precipitation ( Villagrán de León et al., 2013; Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014). As a result of the deficient precipitation, a cascade of impacts on the surrounding environment and diverse societal and economic sectors can ensue; this makes droughts a context-specific hazard that is difficult to identify ( Wilhite, 2000; Monacelli et al., 2005; Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014). As a result, drought risk management focuses on crisis-driven strategies rather than proactive approaches ( Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014). Across Africa droughts represent one of the major life-threatening hazards with significant impacts on the agricultural sector ( IPCC, 2019), warranting the need to develop effective systems to improve the uptake of drought warning information ( Lumbroso et al., 2016). In this context, user-centric climate services have been promoted as a way to enhance drought resilience in agriculture ( Villagrán de León et al., 2013; Roudier et al., 2014; Mungai, 2017; Mahon et al., 2019).

Climate services are primarily developed through National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMS) ( Sivakumar, 2006; Mahon et al., 2019) and help transform weather information into relevant warnings for end-users. Lack of funds, relevant skills, institutional and human capacities, and policy support are recognized as barriers to the development of such services ( Sivakumar, 2006; Mahon et al., 2019). In addition, feedback from end-users though which the evaluation of EWS can improve its design, development and implementation, are lacking ( Sivakumar, 2006). Climate information tends to be developed following a value chain approach, where weather data generated by climatic centers are (re)packaged through various actors and then fed to end-users without engaging them in the development process, causing information to lack of contextualization and thus limiting the uptake on climate information by communities ( Vogel et al., 2019).

This paper first provides background information on the drought warning system in central Malawi, followed by a description of the methods used for data collection and analysis. The results section outlines the key factors that were found to contribute to effective drought warning communication and dissemination through an analysis of; (i) how drought warnings have been generated to meet farmers' needs; (ii) how they have been disseminated within the governmental and humanitarian sector actors and communicated to farmers; (iii) how farmers respond to the warning; and, (iv) how, why and if drought warnings are effective from a farmer's perspective. Finally, the discussion and conclusion section position these factors within the context of MHEWS framework, illustrating how the established process is aligned to the framework, as well as reflecting on how the framework can be built on and adapted for use in monitoring the effectiveness of early warning systems.

Study Area

Malawi has a sub-tropical climate comprising of a wet season from November until April, and a dry season from May to October. Precipitation is highly variable due to the topography of the country ( Bucherie, 2019). Furthermore, the climate of Malawi is correlated to the ENSO effect ( Šakić Trogrlić and van den Homberg, 2018). Malawi is listed as one of the poorest countries and most vulnerable to climate change (UNDP, n.d.). It is a country prone to disasters, where droughts constitute one of the major natural hazards causing food insecurity, which has led to the high involvement of humanitarian and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) ( Šakić Trogrlić and van den Homberg, 2018). After endorsing the Hyogo Framework, Malawi has shifted its approach to disaster risk reduction to align with the Sendai Framework and focus on preparedness and resilience building with local communities to cope with food insecurity ( Government of Malawi, 2018).

Methods

Figure 1 provides an overview of our research methodology. We use the MHEWS framework ( WMO, 2018) to structure our analysis. This was developed from the Sendai framework and provides guidelines on the development of effective communication and dissemination processes through a people-centered approach. The warning communication and dissemination element is one of the four elements of people-centered early warning systems and aims at ensuring that those at risk receive warning information in an understandable and useful way. The other three elements are the knowledge of disaster risk; the detection, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards and possible consequences; and, the preparedness and response capabilities ( WMO, 2018). Within the warning communication and dissemination element, the guidelines in the framework ( Appendix 1) are clustered in three dimensions: (i) the organizational set-up; (ii) the communication systems and equipment; and (iii) the effective communication of impact-based early warnings to prompt early actions by those at risk. As the MHEWS provides no clear distinction between communication and dissemination, for the purpose of this paper, we use the characteristics outlined by the EU IPR Helpdesk ( Scherer et al., 2018) and adapt them to our context. Dissemination is defined as the means used to spread the warning information within official governmental and humanitarian channels to reach farmers, while communication relates to the strategy and measures in place to format the message in the most adapted way for farmers (end-users here). Although our focus is on the warning communication and dissemination element of EWS, this cannot be completely separated from the warning generation and the action taken by farmers on reception of drought warnings, which belong, respectively to the monitoring and warning elements, and to the response capability element of the MHEWS framework.

Data Collection

The channels and the actors identified to be relevant to the dissemination and communication are based on Streefkerk (2020). To understand how drought warnings are communicated, focus group discussions (FGD) were carried out with five groups of small-scale farmers, two in the Salima district and three in the Mangochi district (refer to Table 1) ( Figure 2). To build on Streefkerk (2020), we chose the same districts and the same group of farmers. Group sizes varied between 5 and 11 people, among which half-represented women. We carried out 25 semi-structured Key Informer Interviews (KII) with stakeholders including governmental bodies, UN agencies, and NGOs (i.e., CADECOM, Malawi Red Cross, NASFAM, Malawi Lake Basin Programme, Oxfam) in Lilongwe, Mangochi, and Salima districts. The selection of NGOs was guided by those that were identified by farmers as relevant to the communication and dissemination process.

Key Informer Interviews (KII)

KII were carried out either by a phone call or in person, and in English (with a translator where required) using an open-ended questionnaire ( Appendix 2). Stakeholders were contacted via e-mail, and questionnaires were sent upon request prior to the meeting. Prior to the start of any interview, permission to record the interview was requested. Each interview lasted for around 30-40 min. The information gathered through KII included state of current drought early warning systems, the information flow between different institutions and the communication of drought to other institutions, or end-users. At the district level, more in-depth questions on the process of contextualization of weather forecast at the district level and the use of climate information by farmers were asked. Interviews with NGOs and UN agencies focused on obtaining insight into their involvement in the dissemination and communication of drought warning in Malawi, as well as the uptake of the information by their own organizations to inform early actions. Discussion also included information on the organization structures and communication processes, and uptake of climate information by farmers.

Focus Group Discussions

The consolidated criteria for reporting of qualitative research (COREQ) were used to guide the preparation of FGD strategy and reflect on the data quality ( Tong et al., 2007). As such the following criteria were considered:

- The name and occupation of the facilitator (s) and translator;

- Background information on the translator such as the gender and experience;

- The number of participants, demographic data: names, the occupation, gender;

- Time of the day, the duration of the FGD;

- Observations on the communication dynamics;

- Observation on the quality of transcriptions.

Focus group discussions with farmers were carried out in Chichewa, the local language, and then translated and transcribed for analysis. In the first part of each session, a farming calendar was constructed with farmers and the discussions was held around the type and sources of information used for their decision-making process, under normal conditions. The second part of the session consisted of understanding how drought was perceived and understood by farmers, followed by how their farm decisions were influenced by drought warnings from different sources ( Figure 3). The last part of the session consisted of a discussion on issues encountered and recommendations to improve the current early warning dissemination and communication ( Appendix 2). Further information was gathered from the Farm Radio Trust (FRT) database collecting all farmers' questions. FRT categorizes these requests by Crop type/ Regional/District/Gender/Categories and Query. For this study, we focused on the tab "Categories" as it provides more details in terms of the nature of the request. Examples of categories are: Organic Manure, Pest and Disease Control, Livestock related, Weather information, Soil and Water conservation, Irrigation etc. Information from FRT was obtained for the period from November 2018 to November 2019, with the exception of the months of March and June 2019, where the records were not available.

One of the limitations of the study is that it depends predominantly on participant recall and perception, rather than on direct observations of EWS dissemination, communication, and uptake. We lack existing baseline data for pre- and post-EWS intervention comparison or the capacity for procedural monitoring, this is a point that we return to in the discussion, with regards to recommendations for EWS evaluation.

Data Analysis

Regarding the use of warning information, the MHEWS framework states that the impact-based warning needs to prompt action by the target group, but it does not provide more information regarding how to assess this element. Therefore, to analyze the use of drought warning information in farm decisions, the protocol developed by Doksæter Sivle and Kolstø (2016) was adapted for this study. This protocol was designed to analyze the use of weather information by the public in Norway by looking at the factors that affect the amount of information used, the type of information used, the dynamic that people follow to carry out different activities, and the evaluation of uncertainty. This analysis was based on identifying the criteria and associated indicators that people use to make their decision paths for various activities. In this study, the data analysis followed a similar protocol. Our analysis of the focus group discussions focused on (i) identifying the farming activities carried out under normal and drought conditions, (ii) determining the conditions (criteria) outlined by farmers that needed to be met to carry out each activity, and (iii) identifying the indicators (cues) that farmers used to decide whether those conditions are met. The source and type of information received is the same across the farmer groups, except for the presence and frequency of support provided by NGOs to different groups. Also, the extension officers in both districts have been trained through the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) program ( Dorward et al., 2015) implying that the information is communicated at consistent levels of comprehensibility to farmers in both districts. The program trains extension officers to interpret and understand the climate information and predictions to help them better explain the seasonal forecast to farmers. Regarding data from the FRT, weather related requests from the database were compiled and plotted to give a chronological view of the amount of requests during the farm season. This permitted to analyze whether, and if so when the weather information is more relevant to farmers.

Through analysis of the data from the FGDs and combining with the Farm Radio Trust data on the type of information requested by farmers, it was possible to assess whether and how the warning information was received, understood, and used by farmers. This improved our understanding of farmers' response to drought warnings.

Results

Generation of Drought Warning

In Malawi, drought warnings targeting farmers are only developed through the seasonal forecast process. The process usually starts upon the release of the seasonal forecast by the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS). For the past 2 years, the seasonal forecast has been downscaled to the district level, and even to the area-specific administrative level for certain districts, before it is disseminated to various actors, as expressed by 15 out of 25 KII. At the National Content Development Committee (NCDC), 5 out of 25 KII explained that the data are then discussed among the various stakeholders (DAES, NASFAM, FRT, WFP etc.), and advisories for different districts, as well as mitigation measures to cope with different hazards, are formulated for farmers.

The seasonal forecast is provided at the district level in the form of a poster ( Figure 4), in both English and local language "Chichewa." Tweleve out of twenty-five KII explained that the poster provides an estimate of the potential rainfall in the district, characterized by statements such as "above, below, or normal rainfall." When a statement "below normal" is issued, DCCMS associates it with the expected occurrence of dry spells. When a dry spell is expected to be prolonged during the rainy season for a period of 2-3 weeks and above, the message delivered to communities includes that potential drought conditions may occur, and, as such, drought mitigation measures are recommended " When we disseminate to communities, we don't go deeper: we only say normal, below or above normal and then add the implications. If you have below normal: practice on conservation agriculture and technologies that encourage high moisture in the soil, early maturity seeds etc." (Governmental authorities).

During an extreme year, these messages are reported to be issued more frequently. They consist of a warning that drought is coming and conservation agriculture measures should be taken. These types of drought warnings have been characterized by the providers as impact-based messages. " For example we say if dry spells continue these are the impacts on the crops and this is what you should do" (Governmental authority). However, based on the focus group discussions, all farmers describe the message as being solely an advice providing guidance on the most suitable farming practices for the seasonal forecast provided. Additional to the seasonal forecast, 10-day agro-meteorological bulletin, weekly weather statements, 5-day forecasts, and daily forecasts providing updates on rainfall and wind are disseminated through various channels, including radio, text-messages, newspaper, e-mails, WhatsApp groups, and on the DCCMS website. Other sources of dissemination include community gatherings, the use of loud-hailer via car or van around the village.

The Dissemination and Communication Strategy

The process of dissemination of drought information is conceptualized in Figure 5 and has been described by 19 out of 25 KII. Once the warning information has been generated, it is transmitted to the District Agricultural Development Office (DADO), the District Civil Protection Committee (DCPC), and district meteorological offices. Stakeholders from these organizations then gather in a district coordination meeting to adapt the climate information to their districts, and agree upon the strategy to disseminate information at the local level. National level structures also provide backstopping support to these dissemination strategy meetings at district level. We identified two channels through which information is disseminated: the agricultural advisory channel and the disaster risk management advisory channel ( Figure 5). In the agricultural advisory channel, information is passed on to the agricultural extension officers, who then pass it on to lead farmers and communities. In the disaster risk management advisory branch, DCPC has the role of disseminating information to the Area Civil Protection Committee (ACPC) and Village Civil Protection Committee (VCPC), which then provide the information to communities. As one government stakeholder explains; "(...) after that we communicate with communities through the structures from district level up to community level. [There are] civil protection committees responsible for all disaster related issues (...). At TA level, there is an area civil community and at village level a community civil committee. Those committees: disseminate the climate information and any weather related information. At TA and village they disseminate what the district gives. But then it depends, sometimes they meet and plan together as a community and combine the guidance given by district and adapt it with communities."

In Malawi, humanitarian agencies are extensively involved in disaster response related matters and in the dissemination of information. As described by 16 out of 25 KII, NGOs are involved mainly in the implementation of plans at the area and local administrative levels. Their role varies depending on the aim of each NGO. In contrast, UN agencies like UNDP and WFP are more directly involved in the production of climate information at national and district level, rather than at area and local level (apart from supporting the local disseminators, where necessary). For drought preparedness and warning communication, the main support provided by humanitarian agencies and NGOs is to release funds that these organization have received from donors to support food security measures. These funds help the drought warning development through enabling stakeholders meetings, the production of seasonal forecast posters, capacity building on the understanding and interpreting seasonal forecast, and increased access to information by reaching areas where extension officers cannot go. " In DRR, we work with local government structures: district counsels (with CPC), ACPC and VCPC). We provide support to those structures through capacity building." (NGO). "We provide financial support to contingency plans for certain districts, training of committees and governmental staff." (NGO).

Our finding from the FGD show that the main channels used for the communication of drought warnings were in order of usage frequency community gatherings, extension officers, NGOs, certain radio programmes, and text-messages. Of these, in all focus group discussions, farmers preferred as channels, extension officers, and radio. Extension officers facilitate communication amongst farmers during community gatherings, while the Farm Trust Radio (and other local radio broadcasters) has a greater reach to farmers and communities. The contribution of Farm Trust Radio is greatly appreciated, as shared during FGD: " We want any communication about weather changes to be through radio [as] it's very easy for us to know the information" and " the best mode of communication is the radio because it [is] easy and faster." NGOs were found to coordinate with extension officers and use similar channels to help spread warning information. However, the presence of NGOs is sporadic, as lead farmers have to rely on other channels more readily available. " NGOs come and go, they appear and disappear (...) NGOs don't have EPA on the ground, they use DADO extension officers and they only support when they have money. The dissemination of information is mainly done by extension officers, NGOs are sometimes part of it but not systematically." (Governmental authority). As a whole, it was found that a clear communication strategy to the farmers does not exist. As highlighted in FGDs, climate information is disseminated by multiple means to ensure maximum accessibility. However, the type of information, its provider and its timing are not defined a-priori as pointed out by a humanitarian agency: " The dissemination is the main challenge institutions need to work with, it needs to be clear with the different procedures, need to come up with a strategy to disseminate those information. There is no dissemination in place for drought, it is done but there is a need for a proper strategy, rather than people talking about it from place to place."

Furthermore, based on discussions with extension officers, the preference of farmers for extension services has increased since the introduction of Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) and the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) training and provision of participatory tools. " The training permits farmers to understand how weather works and make decisions with the current forecast. (...) for the training, lead farmers were very happy and understand better rainfall patterns. "(Governmental authority). The PICSA training under WFP is relatively recent in the Mangochi and Salima districts (last 2 years) and 11 out of 25 KII (8 being extension officers) expressed that it has increased the ability of extension officers-and hence also farmers-to get a better understanding of how weather information relates to farming activities. In addition, through the participatory tools provided, advice on farming practices that is adapted to the individual can be generated. These services are primarily provided during community gatherings and are the main strategy in place to contextualize information and engage communities in the development of the drought early warning. Based on feedback obtained from extension officers and farmers, the output of these services is promising as it provides understandable advice that has increased farmers trust, favoring the uptake of drought warning information. " There is a difference since the PICSA training. We used to transmit the information as it is and it was based on assumption. Now there is more information, and there is a higher understanding. Now farmers are better trained but not yet they are able to adapt to the weather forecast. They use the advice that is being given." (Governmental authority).

Feedback mechanisms were found at the Area-Local administrative level ( Figure 5) and mentioned by 4 KII involved at these administrative levels. For farmers the first contact with mandated authorities is during community gatherings with the extension officers or VCPC members. At the area stakeholder panel and village agriculture committee, farmers are also present and can give feedback. As explained by governmental officials "[the area stakeholder panel] is a forum where all agricultural staff and small-scale farmers and medium farmers, commercial farmers and NGOs representatives collaborate and talk to each other" and " VCPC go to communities with issues to discuss." Farm Radio Trust has also developed a call center aimed mainly at supporting farmers by answering their requests and getting their feedback. No information was provided on whether these feedbacks are discussed during the National Warning Content Committee.

Warning Uptake and Decision-Making Dynamics

Table 2 shows the decision-making processes described by FGDs. Highlighted in gray are farming activities associated with measures taken to mitigate drought impacts. Criteria correspond to the conditions necessary to take the decision to carry out a farming activity. Cues correspond to the environmental and social indicators and to the advices provided with the seasonal forecast, that are used to inform if criteria are met ( Doksæter Sivle and Kolstø, 2016).

Overall, the decision-making process follows the cropping cycle, with decisions being made on either what activity should be done, or when to carry out an activity. Decisions made were related due to the interdependence of farming activities. For example, farmers replant when the first-planted crops fail. Another criterion for replanting could be good soil health after harvesting, allowing for an additional crop. Decisions such as the type of ridging, seed selection, pitting, manure application, and dimba (gardening for personal food provision) are conservation agriculture activities that are carried out when the amount of rainfall is forecasted to be below normal rainfall and a subsequent development of droughts is envisaged (criteria).

Criteria and cues were found to be very similar from one farmer group to another. To further analyze the decision-making dynamics, information from the different FGD were combined on the basis of the farming activity. This analysis permitted to distill how farmers respond to the information. The results from the farming calendars ( Table 2) show that the decision making by farmers consists of two types of decision "what to do" and "when to do it" ( Table 2), as explained previously. To decide upon how to carry out these activities farmers use various cues that come from either the guidance in the form of advisories or weather information based on local observations (environmental cues) ( Table 2). To assess how the warning information, primarily in the form of advisories, is used we analyzed which sources of information were used for the decisions to carry out farm activities. To do this, we calculated the number of correlations between the types of decision (when/what) and the associated source of information (environmental cues/advice) used to take this decision. Results were plotted on Figure 7, and show a clear correlation between "What to do-Advice" and "When to do it-Environmental cues." Social cues were not mentioned by farmers. These results could be explained by the fact that farmers respond well to the guidance provided in comparison to the weather updates. According to farmers, the uptake of the weather updates is low because of a lack of access. This analysis thus demonstrates that farmers respond to drought warning information when it is provided as advice on agricultural practices, rather than weather-related information.

Discussion

The shift toward people-centered systems has been promoted as a key mechanism to enhance trust and improve uptake of warning information for the end-users to take appropriate disaster preparedness measures ( Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014; WMO, 2015, 2018). Malawi has adopted this new approach in the development of its early warning communication and dissemination systems ( Government of Malawi, 2018). Focusing on end users trust in, and uptake of, early warning information as key measures of success of this dissemination and communication, we identify four characteristics of effective people-centered EWS: (i) a sectoral system focusing on agriculture and farmers' needs, (ii) the provision of several dissemination channels, (iii) the provision of local dissemination services, and (iv) the timely provision of relevant information.

However, we also recognize that there is more work to be done in the monitoring and evaluation of EWS communication and dissemination. Here, we adopt trust and uptake as metrics of the effectiveness and rely heavily on stakeholder perceptions and recall as approaches for capturing these metrics. Efforts to better conceptualize the multidimensional nature of trust and action at the science-policy-practice interface ( Stern and Coleman, 2014), can help to guide such efforts. Similarly the purposeful design of EWS implementation for evaluation, and the use of longitudinal and action-research methodologies that can directly observe, monitor and attribute changes in behavior associated with EWS, can help build a more robust evidence base around what works ( Tall et al., 2018).

Sectoral System Focusing on Agriculture and Farmers' Needs

Dissemination Channels, Accessibility, and Trust

The accessibility of information-which encompasses a consideration of the channels through which information is provided and whether or not end users have the means (technology, contact with extension officers, etc.) to receive information-is critical for effective EWS. However, if accessibility is to be adequately understood and evaluated, it is important that there is a focus on both the means of information provision and the ways in which these are accessed (or not accessed) by end users.

The MHEWS framework ( WMO, 2018) emphasizes the need to develop multiple channels to reach as many people as possible. This may increase the likelihood that information is received, in one form or another, and help to add greater perceived credibility to that information, providing that the multiple channels offer information that is consistent (the opposite affect may be true if information is inconsistent). However, a simple counting of the number of information channels, does not pay adequate attention to questions of what information is being received, through which channels, and by whom.

A variety of channels were found to be operational in Malawi. However, not all provide messages that are specific to the geographic context and the farming activities and decision-making needs of the farmers. Our results suggest that this has a significant bearing on the extent to which farmers are able to utilize that information.

Whilst the number of active information channels might provide a useful indicator of the extent to which information reaches end users, effectively evaluating EWS requires a more nuanced analysis of both accessibility and trust in information.

Provision of Local Dissemination Services

Similar to Kenya and Zimbabwe, the development and empowerment of local services through PICSA and PSP, agricultural extension services, local radio, and lead farmers were found to be highly appreciated as a communication and dissemination strategy in Malawi. These were identified as a key mechanism in establishing trust in the drought information ( Sivakumar, 2006; Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014; Andersson et al., 2019). The uptake in Malawi has improved since localized and downscaled climate information is provided. The sense of proximity to the information-by communication coming from sources known to end-users, or through the contextualization of warning content to the local situation-creates a sense of ownership and trust that results in a higher uptake of drought warning information ( Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014; Andersson et al., 2019). The affinity to local services improved since the development of the PICSA program as this has provided higher competencies to extension officers to communicate and interpret the information. This in turn enables farmers to better understand and use the climate information provided. This study reveals, however, that challenges remain in enabling an effective communication and contextualizing information at the local level. For instance Kniveton et al. (2015) argue for the integration of climate information with local knowledge systems, but also acknowledge the challenges given the inherent uncertainty of weather and climate information. Local knowledge varies from one place to another and is poorly documented, making the co-production of EWS with farmers difficult from the national stakeholder perspective. Furthermore, with regards to the understanding of the nature of drought, this study found disparities in drought perception between the producer of climate information and the farmers. Droughts are mainly described by mandated authorities, UN and NGOs as a prolonged lack of rainfall following the planting season for a duration of 2-3 weeks or more. Perceptions of the farmers coincide with this definition. However, additional hazards such as fall army worms and even floods are considered as elements causing drought to farmers in Mangochi district though this was not found to be the case in Salima district. This disparity in drought perception clearly shows a need to actively engage farmers to avoid inadequate early farming actions when a drought warning is issued. In addition, these differences in drought perceptions highlight the need to clearly characterize what constitute a drought in the context Malawi, and re-adjust the communication strategy for the farmers and communities.

Timely Provision of Relevant Information

This study shows that the uptake of drought warnings is associated with the downscaling of weather information to the district and area administrative level and the provision of the seasonal forecast in a timely manner. The drought warnings delivered are characterized as impact-based information, complemented by advisory information on farming practices, the location and the timeline for farming practices to mitigate droughts. Though only scarcely relevant impact information was included, contextualization to the local situation is believed to increase the understanding and trigger the taking of early actions by end-users ( Choo, 2009; Potter et al., 2018). However, our results show that the element that is considered most relevant is the guidance provided on (drought) mitigation measures such as conservation agriculture or farming practices. The drought warning is not used by farmers for decision-making related to timing of their activities. Daily or weekly weather updates are not often used as cues because farmers are not able to access them via the channels through which they are communicated, or because there is a lack of trust in those updates that are received. Weather updates contain weather-only information and are provided uniformly across all sectors, without the sector-specific guidance considered most relevant in drought warnings. However, discussions at Cape Maclear with fishermen, pointed out that there the weather updates are closely paid attention to. This may be because they will go out on the lake to fish only when the weather conditions are adequate, and the information is therefore considered as highly relevant to them. The direct relevance of the information to the risk assessment of the end users, in this case, is well-understood and explains the high use of weather updates to decide upon fishing or not. For farmers, the relationship between forecast information and the outcomes of their responses (i.e., their decisions about land management) are less straightforward. Daily weather updates are not translated into farming information and advice, which can explain a lack of uptake by farmers. Data from FRT showed that few requests (6%) were made for the weather updates and thus supports the fact that this information is not widely used to cue the carrying out of most farming activities. Only following the planting season, the weather updates are considered relevant and important, and are therefore requested more frequently.

We point out that the MHEWS framework ( WMO, 2018) does not include a way to assess this important component of understanding. Molinari and Handmer (2011) propose a behavioral model to quantify warning effectiveness. The MHEWS framework does assess understanding indirectly via the ability of tailor-made impact-based information to prompt the taking of action. In Malawi, the actions we found to have been taken show that, indeed, drought warning mitigation guidance is used in the decision-making process of farming activities. However, this does not necessarily imply that drought warnings are understood; it just shows that advice on improving farming practices as a whole is used in the decision-making. Clear links between drought warnings and understanding may be difficult to establish by looking only at the action taken by farmers, particularly given that the perception of drought may differ.

The Dependency on Humanitarian and NGO Assistance

Overall, the timely provision of relevant drought warning information has triggered the uptake of early action by farmers. However, the accessibility to these services is limited to areas where there is NGO and humanitarian support. We found that these organizations provide extensive financial support to enable the development of these services. For instance, the PICSA training is supported by WFP or UNDP, while other projects provide funds that enable extension officers to access remote regions and to have more capacities to meet communities needs. The high financial dependency on humanitarian and NGO assistance tends to be, however, project-oriented and implemented for a certain period, jeopardizing the long-term development and provision of warning information to farmers ( Harvey et al., 2019). This support is sporadic in time and space, thus bringing into question the sustainability and effectiveness of the drought early warning communication and dissemination at the country level. While the dissemination and communication process tends to align mostly to the guidelines in the MHEWS framework ( WMO, 2018) when supported by donors, the question this raises to the sustainability due to this specific dependency is not elaborated in the framework.

Conclusion

The timely provision of downscaled information, complemented with tailored advice has been shown to improve the uptake of warning information as witnessed by our analysis in the districts of Mangochi and Salima in Malawi. A people-centered approach is useful for enhancing trust and enabling an effective uptake of drought warning information. Focus group discussions and interviews supported by literature permitted us to identify that trust in, and uptake of, drought EWS in Malawi is enhanced by proximity. Relevance of information is achieved through the inclusion of local context and communication through locally recognized channels such as well-trained and trusted agricultural extension officers, lead farmers, and Farm Radio Trust.

The MHEWS framework supports a people-centered approach to the generation, communication, and dissemination of EWS, but it has some limitations as an evaluation tool for the effectiveness of EWS. Drawing on our findings, we argue that further disentangling the dissemination and communication processes within EWS, and observing participation, behavioral change and trust by stakeholders across these distinct processes can contribute to understanding what works, where and why in people-centered EWS approaches.

From the data collected, the adoption of a people-centered approach to early warning shows that this has improved the tailoring of drought Early Warning Systems to farmers' needs, and contributed to the perception by farmers interviewed in Malawi that the information provided is useful. Information provided that contained advisories on what actions farmers should take are of most use as farmers requested and responded to that information more readily than advisories on when to take actions. While improvements toward a people-centered-approach for drought EWS were identified, a high dependency on financial support from donors and lack of available funds at local levels for such initiatives was found. Although further introduction of digital communication methods could help reduce costs, other key elements such as training of agricultural extension officers and logistics also depend on donor funding. This is problematic for the further development and sustainability of these systems. Financial sustainability is currently not strongly embedded in the MHEWS framework. This should, however, be included as they may well jeopardize the effectiveness of the approach.

Data Availability Statement

The datasets presented in this article are not readily available because all data available are qualitative and confidential. Participants are identifiable and therefore data cannot be shared. Requests to access the datasets should be directed to Alexia Calvel, alexia.calvel@gmail.com.

Ethics Statement

Ethical review and approval was not required for the study on human participants in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements. Written informed consent for participation was not required for this study in accordance with the national legislation and the institutional requirements.

Author Contributions

AC: main writer of the article based on M.Sc. Thesis. MW, MH, and ACF supervised and contributed to the writing of the article. IS, NM, SW, CB, and CL helped to improve the conceptualization of the field work and research work and contributed to the writing.

Funding

This study was partly funded by the UK Research and Innovation as part of the NERC Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Relief programme, NE/S005900/1.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

The reviewer CF declared a past co-authorship with one of the authors MW to the handling editor.

Supplementary Material

The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2020.578327/full#supplementary-material

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Communication Structures and Decision Making Cues and Criteria to Support Effective Drought Warning in Central Malawi

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Early warning systems trigger early action and enable better disaster preparedness. People-centered dissemination and communication are pivotal for the effective uptake of early warnings. Current research predominantly focuses on sudden-onset hazards, such as floods, ignoring considerable differences with slow-onset hazards, such as droughts.

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MECHANISMS FOR RAPID DECISION MAKING - Drought preparedness and response in the arid and semi-arid lands of Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, and in the East Africa Region

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MECHANISMS FOR RAPID DECISION MAKING - Drought preparedness and response in the arid and semi-arid lands of Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, and in the East Africa Region

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Developing user-centric climate services to enhance drought resilience in Africa

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Developing user-centric climate services to enhance drought resilience in Africa

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CCAFS: CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

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Climate services play a key role in supporting the resilience of communities but continue to be inaccessible to large numbers of climate-vulnerable people.

"A portfolio of user co-designed and co-developed online climate information 'Maprooms' will help decision makers better manage drought risk in three priority areas in East Africa: disaster risk reduction, agriculture and food security, and public health." This was the key conclusion from the workshop ' Existing and New Tools for Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in Eastern Africa' hosted by the IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC).

From 23 to 25 August, seventy participants from national meteorological services, international partners, as well as expert practitioners, policymakers, and researchers from agriculture, health, disaster risk reduction, water resource management, education and finance reviewed current tools and offered recommendations for new climate tools for drought risk management in Eastern Africa. The workshop, which took immediately after the Forty Seventh Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF47), was designed to address two main objectives: make decision-makers in target sectors more aware of the online climate information that is available or under development; and give these decision-makers a voice in the information that national meteorological services provide in the near future.

The climate change challenge - the perfect storm

"Drought is a slow creeping hazard; how can we predict then prepare for this? We acknowledge that tools and information are available; however, the challenge is awareness among users and also skills on how to use the tools," stated Dr. Ladislaus Chang'a of the Tanzania Meteorological Agency. This was also emphasized by Dr. Guleid Artan, the director of ICPAC, who pointed out that over 27 million people in the region have been affected by drought over the last 4 years.

Even though episodic droughts have always been present in East Africa, studies show they have become more frequent in recent decades. There is growing evidence suggesting that the impacts of current and recent droughts in East Africa are likely to have been aggravated by climate change. Poverty, chronic malnutrition, weak governance, conflict, drought and climate change have combined to create a perfect storm.

During the panel session on 'policy and operational needs for drought-related disasters,' panellists from agriculture, livestock, health and disaster risk management sectors agreed that pastoralists and smallholder farmers are most at risk. They lack the skills and resources to cope with the inherent risks of farming, live on harsher lands, and rarely have access to economic safety nets when crops fail and livestock die. More frequent droughts are making it harder for people to recover between shocks, making them more vulnerable. As such, there is an increasing need and demand for tailored climate information products and services for agriculture and food security, pastoral systems, health, water, and energy resources in Eastern Africa.

Tools for developing sector specific responses

To respond to the challenges caused by climate change, research institutions have partnered with regional and national meteorological service providers to create online "Maproom" tools that can be used to inform decision making across sectors. During the workshop, the following Maproom were shown:

This was followed by practical session where participants had the opportunity to use the different tools and give recommendations on improving their usefulness for sector-specific drought management needs.

Participants recognized that climate information tools need to be accompanied by climate-smart response strategies that are sector specific, but also enhance integration across sectors where possible. "One Health" - an approach which seeks to address challenges that threaten human and animal health, food security and poverty and the environments where diseases flourish - is one such integrative approach, presented by Madeleine Thomson, a senior research scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ( IRI). Read more: Climate mapping tools support resilient development in East Africa

The future outlook

The workshop showcased a rapidly expanding suite of inline climate information tools. New Maproom tools for agricultural and food security decision-makers, some still prototypes or under development, are being rolled out at a national scale in Rwanda, and regionally through ICPAC. CCAFS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) are working with ICPAC to increase its ability to assist the NMHS of member countries in East African to provide online Maprooms that better serve the needs of their farming populations and agricultural sectors. Workshop participants offered several additional recommendations for increasing the use of climate information for managing drought risk:

Expand sector- specific Maprooms beyond agriculture and health, to include disaster, water, energy and tourism.

Integrate sectorial and socio-economic data with climate databases, to better inform decision-making.

Promote sustainability by involving users with national meteorological services in the co-development of tools.

Enhance access through mobile phone applications, and offline access versions where Internet connectivity is unavailable.

Encourage continued collaboration across sectors; and among research institutions, line ministries, private sector, and development and humanitarian organizations working directly with communities.

See the photos from the workshop:
Read more

The workshop was organized jointly by ICPAC, CSRD, IRI, CCAFS and UK Met Office; and hosted by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency.
Financial and in-kind support for the workshop came from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), through the Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Partnership, the Climate Services for Africa project, and the Rwanda Climate Services for Africa project, and from the UK Department for International Development (DfID), through the WISER (Weather and Climate Information Services for Africa)-ENACTS and WISER- SCIPEA (Strengthening Climate Information Partnerships - East Africa) projects.
Catherine Mungai is the Partnerships and policy specialist for CCAFS East Africa.

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Developing user-centric climate services to enhance drought resilience in Africa

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Climate services play a key role in supporting the resilience of communities but continue to be inaccessible to large numbers of climate-vulnerable people. "A portfolio of user co-designed and co-developed online climate information 'Maprooms' will help decision makers better manage drought risk in three priority areas in East Africa: disaster risk reduction, agriculture and food security, and public health."

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Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

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Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

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Abstract

Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all "natural" hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast - it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk) and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

Keywords

International Symposium on Integrated Drought Information Systems (ISIDIS)

Prediction and indicators

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

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Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all "natural" hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia.

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Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project

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Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project

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DOI link for Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project

Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project book

DOI link for Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project

Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project book

By M. Werner, S. Vermooten, A. Iglesias, R. Maia, J. Vogt & G. Naumann

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Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of

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DOI link for Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project book DOI link for Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project book By M.

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Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions

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Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions

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Practical guidelines for Early Warning – Early Action plans on agricultural drought

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Practical guidelines for Early Warning – Early Action plans on agricultural drought

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Drought is a devastating and complex natural hazard that represents a constant risk for most smallholder farmers around the world. Between 2006 and 2016, the agriculture sector absorbed about 83 percent of all damage and loss associated with drought according to a study by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This represents a major threat to food security, especially among the most vulnerable.

This publication aims to guide governments and other relevant actors in the development of early warning - early actions on agricultural drought plans that must be implemented before a drought event has significant impacts and causes damages and losses that could eventually become a disaster. The manual complements other instruments used at global and local levels to develop early warning - early action on agricultural and response plans related to drought.

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Practical guidelines for Early Warning - Early Action plans on agricultural drought

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Drought is a devastating and complex natural hazard that represents a constant risk for most smallholder farmers around the world. Between 2006 and 2016, the agriculture sector absorbed about 83 percent of all damage and loss associated with drought according to a study by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

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Linking Drought Forecast Information to Smallholder Farmer’s Strategies and Local Knowledge in Southern Malawi

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Linking Drought Forecast Information to Smallholder Farmer’s Strategies and Local Knowledge in Southern Malawi

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For the MSc Thesis => https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid:1efd276a-44cf-4e81-a3d7-6eedc801501e?collection=education

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¹Delft University of Technology, Netherlands

²Netherlands Red Cross, 510, Netherlands

³IHE Delft, Netherlands

⁴University of Leeds, United Kingdom

⁵Malawi Red Cross Society, Malawi

Most people of Malawi are dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. This leaves them vulnerable to drought and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. Farmers have adopted local strategies and knowledge which have evolved over time to help in reducing the overall vulnerability to climate variability shocks. One other option to increase the resilience of rainfed farmers to drought, is providing forecast information on the upcoming rainfall season. Forecast information has the potential to inform farmers in their decisions surrounding agricultural strategies. However, significant challenges remain in the provision of forecast information. Often, the forecast information is not tailored to farmers, resulting in limited uptake of forecast information into their agricultural decision-making.

Therefore, this study explores how drought forecast information can be linked to existing farmers strategies and local knowledge on predicting future rainfall patterns. By using participatory approaches, an understanding is created of what requirements drought forecast information should meet to effectively inform farmers in their decision-making. Based on these requirements a sequential threshold model, using meteorological indicators based on farmer's local knowledge was developed to predict drought indicators (e.g. late onset of rains and dry spells). Additionally, using interviews among stakeholders and a visualisation of the current information flow, further insights on the current drought information system was developed.

The results of this research show that local knowledge has a predictive value for forecasting drought indicators. The skill of the forecast differs per location with an increased skill for Southern locations. In addition, the results suggest that local knowledge indicators have an increased predictive value in forecasting the locally relevant drought indicators in comparison the currently used ENSO-related indicators. This research argues that the inclusion of local knowledge could potentially improve the current forecast information by tailoring it to farmer's forecast requirements and context. Therefore, the findings of this research could be insightful and relevant for actors or research fields involved in drought forecasting in relation to user-specific needs.

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1Delft University of Technology, Netherlands 2Netherlands Red Cross, 510, Netherlands 3IHE Delft, Netherlands 4University of Leeds, United Kingdom 5Malawi Red Cross Society, Malawi Most people of Malawi are dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. This leaves them vulnerable to drought and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change.

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Traditional prediction of drought under weather and climate uncertainty: analyzing the challenges and opportunities for small-scale farmers in Gaza province, southern region of Mozambique

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Traditional prediction of drought under weather and climate uncertainty: analyzing the challenges and opportunities for small-scale farmers in Gaza province, southern region of Mozambique

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Abstract

This paper explores the traditional indicators that small-scale farmers in Gaza province in southern Mozambique use to predict drought events on their rain-fed farms. It analyzes the contextual situation regarding the accuracy and reliability of the traditional prediction methods under the current weather and conditions of climate uncertainty and variability, and the opportunities that their prediction methods can bring to reduce their current and future exposure and vulnerabilities to drought. Farmers use a total of 11 traditional environmental indicators to predict drought, either individually or combined, as required to increase their prediction certainty. However, the farmers perceive that current unpredictability, variability, and changes in weather and climate have negatively affected the interpretation, accuracy, and reliability of most of their prediction indicators, and thus their farming activities and their ability to predict and respond to drought. This, associated with the reduced number of elders in the community, is causing a decline in the diversity, and complexity of interpretation of indicators. Nonetheless, these difficulties have not impeded farmers from continuing to use their preferred prediction methods, as on some occasions they continue to be useful for their farming-related decisions and are also the main, or sometimes only, source of forecast. Considering the role these methods play in farmers' activities, and the limited access to meteorological forecasts in most rural areas of Mozambique, and the fact that the weather and climate is expected to continually change, this paper concludes that it is important to enhance the use of traditional prediction methods. However, the increase of the accuracy and reliability, and continued existence of the methods depends on the farmers' own abilities to enhance, preserve, and validate them by tailoring the traditional methods used to work with the new environmental, weather, and climatic conditions, or through the development of new methods.

Introduction

Over the generations, small-scale farmers whose livelihoods depend on rainfall have developed a detailed system for gathering and interpreting signs from the weather, the climate, and the environment in order to predict rain, to interpret its implications, and to make farm-related decisions (IPCC 2007; Speranza et al. 2010). This intricate system has enabled them to become familiarized with and to recognize changes in their surrounding environment and climate (Hyland et al. 2016; Tschakert 2007). They do so without a detailed understanding of the scientific factors that drive the changes or the use of recorded data for understanding weather patterns (Ramnath 1988). The term 'traditional prediction' refers to environmental indicators that are locally used to read its signs and to then interpret the expected weather or climate conditions (Zuma-Netshiukhwi et al. 2013). This paper seeks to develop a comprehensive understanding of traditional methods used by farmers to predict drought, the dynamics of the methods under the current weather and conditions of climate uncertainty and variability, and the opportunities the methods can bring to reduce farmers' current and future exposure and vulnerabilities to drought.

In recent years there has occurred a resurgent interest in traditional prediction methods in relation to disaster risk reduction due to the increased number of natural hazards transforming into disasters because of current climate change. Natural hazards turn into disasters when they destroy people's lives and livelihoods (WMO 2018). On one hand, some scholars feel skeptical about the accuracy and reliability of traditional prediction methods under current weather and climate change and variability (Chinlampianga 2011; Kempton 1997, King et al. 2008). On the other hand, various scholars have acknowledged and emphasized the importance and use of local knowledge for weather and climate prediction (Chand et al. 2014; Roncoli et al. 2002; Speranza et al. 2010), decision making, climate change adaptation (Anik and Khan 2012; Ishaya and Abaje 2008; Leonard et al. 2013) and to complement scientific information (Green et al. 2010; Huntington et al. 2004; King et al. 2008). More recently, scholars have also stressed the need to go beyond that and to acknowledge the importance of validating and documenting this knowledge to enable it to continually exert its multiple use and benefits over generations to come (Chang'a et al. 2010; Kijazi et al. 2013; Lebel 2013).

While these scholars praise the numerous advantages of local knowledge for weather and climate prediction, on the whole they do not see local knowledge as a valid system in its own right. Rather, they concentrate on highlighting it as a tool for documentation, and as a source of input to improve and validate science, which is considered the benchmark of all types of knowledge systems (Agrawal 2002; Klenk et al. 2017; Kronik and Verner 2010, p. 145). However, Huntington ( 2000) and Naess ( 2013) argue that this trivializes and diminishes local knowledge, resulting in the loss of its dynamism and obscuration of its contribution. What is more, to date these studies have mostly analyzed the role of traditional prediction methods from one angle, i.e., the studies looked at the benefits or challenges of the methods without combining them in a context-specific perspective. As the role of the methods may differ from place to place according to socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics (Klenk et al. 2017), thus, such analysis may not reveal the real picture of the traditional prediction methods, thereby obstructing the broad understanding of the methods and leading to misinterpretation of their context-specific role. Drawing on this, this paper aims to analyze both challenges and opportunities of farmers' traditional prediction methods, taking as an example small-scale farmers' living in remote areas in the southern province of Gaza in Mozambique.

To do so, the paper starts by first unpacking farmers' definitions of drought in order to obtain a clear understanding of what farmers are predicting. It shows how farmers' conceptualization of drought is driven by the impacts on their activities and well-being, and how such conceptualization differs from the one used by the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC), and how the timing of occurrence of drought relative to farmers' activities influences their perception of drought risks. Second, it explores the diverse (traditional and meteorological) forecast methods used by farmers. Then, the paper focuses on traditional prediction methods to discuss the contextual situation regarding the accuracy and reliability of the methods under the current scenario of weather and climate variability. Here the paper shows through farmers' perceptions and viewpoints the links between the current changes in the weather, climate, and environment, and the methods their use to predict drought, and the consequences of that. It also shows how independently of the outcomes, farmers value their traditional forecast methods and use them as their primary forecast for farm-related decision making, even when they are provided with seasonal meteorological forecasts.

Following that, the paper discusses the contextual importance of enhancing, safeguarding, and validating traditional drought prediction methods for the less privileged groups of farmers who live in places where there is no location-specific meteorological station to timely monitor and communicate drought, or who have limited access to scientific forecasts, as is the case for most rural farmers in Mozambique. Although the paper recognizes the high importance of traditional prediction methods in such places for the timely prediction of drought, and other natural hazards, it also acknowledges the role of meteorological forecasting in farmers' decision making and responses to drought. Thus, combining both scientific and traditional methods would be crucial to strengthen the success of the forecast, and thus to reduce farmers' vulnerability. However, the paper reinforces that a successful combination of forecast methods imply first the understanding of the nature of farmers' traditional methods as this will further facilitate the communication of scientific forecasts to farmers in a way that is meaningful and relevant to their decision-making.

Perspectives on traditional prediction methods

Traditional prediction methods are important to farming communities around the world that lack, or have limited access to, scientific forecasts. Such communities commonly use a combination of biological, celestial, and climatic indicators to predict the weather and climate, including the behavior of plants and animals; the strength and directions of winds; the color of the sky; and the appearance of the clouds, the sun, and the stars (Chang'a et al. 2010; Green et al. 2010; Lefale 2010). However, the way communities observe, read, and interpret the indicators may vary according to their culture and the surrounding environment. For instance, while Mengistu ( 2011) found that farmers in Adiha, Ethiopia, interpret winds blowing in one direction close to the time of land preparation as a sign of drought, Santha et al. ( 2010) found that farmers in India consider windy periods which occur near to the agricultural season as a sign of good rains coming. Moreover, farmers in Tlaxcala, Mexico, reported that the inclined angle of the moon is an indication that rain will fall within 5 days (Eakin 1999), while Tanzanian farmers view this as a sign of erratic rainfall to come (Chang'a et al. 2010). All of these are examples of farmers relying on single indicators. Yet, communities' abilities to combine multiple types of indicators are also considered valuable as the practice is believed to increase confidence in the accuracy of their predictions, and to reduce their vulnerability to weather and long-term climate change (Garay-Barayazarra and Puri 2011; Huntington et al. 2004).

Nonetheless, despite their abilities, nowadays, farmers worldwide are increasingly exposed to unpredictable and more frequent, severe and lengthier drought events that are impacting their yields, production, food security, and livelihoods. This is the result of several interlinked climatic and non-climatic factors, such as extreme weather and climate variability, and soil type or management (IPCC 2007; Mishra and Desai 2006). As a result, farmers have been conducting their prediction activities in increasingly unpredictable and challenging conditions, which has affected the performance of some of the indicators routinely used to predict the weather and climate, and causing adverse consequences to farmers who are unprepared for an incorrect prediction. For this reason, the accuracy of farmers' traditional prediction methods has been questioned by some scholars (e.g., Ayal et al. 2015; Chinlampianga 2011; Egeru 2012; King et al. 2008; Orlove et al. 2010). For instance, Ayal et al. ( 2015) and Egeru ( 2012) argue that the accelerated weather and climate change and variability are causing a change in the usual behavior and the disappearance of some plants and animals used to predict the weather. They gave examples of acacia trees and hartebeest, which are disappearing, and African teak trees, a yielding timber scientifically known as Milicia excels, changing their shading patterns, i.e., dropping off and growing new leaves in unusual periods of the year, and hornets nesting at the ground level instead of hollow trees. Adding to that, Lebel ( 2013) found that the traditional prediction knowledge holders in India claimed a reduction of 25-40% of the accuracy of a set of bio-indicators they have monitored. Egeru ( 2012) also reported Eastern Uganda farmers' perceptions of changes in wind direction and intensity as a result of climate change.

Because of this decline in the accuracy and reliability of some indicators, it is argued that farmers are no longer able to predict when the rain is going to start and when they will be able to start planting their crops, or if the rain will be good enough for the forthcoming agricultural season. Consequently, some farmers who prepare their land and plant their crops based on traditional prediction techniques are forced to replant them due to an unexpected dry spell after the early rains (Egeru 2012; Tambo and Abdoulaye 2012). In most cases, farmers are forced to reschedule their activities (Chand et al. 2014; Chinlampianga 2011) or choose to plant short-circle varieties to reduce the risks (Ishaya and Abaje 2008; Orlove et al. 2010). Regardless of that, farmers still use and rely on their methods as, for them, the challenges they face do not mean, under the current circumstances, that their predictions are not always going to be reliable and accurate (Eakin 1999). Indeed, even science has issues to accurately predict some parameters, such as the duration and coverage of drought (Roncoli et al. 2009), which in some places is aggravated by the fact that the forecasts are not location-specific (Kogan 1997). As both traditional prediction and scientific forecast methods have uncertainties of their own, Eakin ( 1999) and Ebhuoma and Simatele ( 2017) suggest that it may lead farmers not to trust and have the willingness to use the scientific forecasts. While Roncoli et al. ( 2002) and Speranza et al. ( 2010) contend that it may, in fact, create an environment for farmers to be interested in and accept scientific forecasts to increase the confidence of the forecasts, thus reinforcing the need and importance of making scientific forecasting information accessible to farmers to minimize risks and agricultural losses.

Conversely, some studies have registered a decline in the use of traditional prediction methods due to an increase in modernization and cultural homogenization, a reduction in the number of elders using such techniques, and a lack, or poor documentation of them (Boven and Morohashi 2002; Chang'a et al. 2010; Muyambo et al. 2017). Additionally, some researchers have registered a decline in the richness of, and some contradiction in, the interpretation of diverse traditional indicators by farmers (Manyanhaire 2015; Mengistu 2011; Santha et al. 2010). Notwithstanding this, Ziervogel ( 2001) argued that as the interpretation of environmental indicators is a part of personal knowledge and experience, inconsistencies are expected, even within the same community. This stresses the urgent need to safeguard traditional knowledge which, despite the current challenges faced, continues to be the primary source of farmers' forecasts for farm-related decisions, especially considering that access to, and utilization of, scientific forecasting remains very limited in most rural areas (Chisadza et al. 2013). Thus, although several factors might increase farmers' vulnerability to drought, Wongbusarakum and Loper ( 2011) contend that the lack of drought-related information and early warning systems are making farmers more vulnerable to its impact.

Therefore, there is growing recognition among researchers (e.g., Green et al. 2010; Kalanda-Joshua et al. 2011; Mahoo et al. 2015; Manyanhaire 2015) of the importance of making forecasts as location-specific as possible, and some scholars have suggested combining traditional prediction and scientific forecast methods with the aim of increasing their accuracy and reliability, and thereby reducing farmers' vulnerability to weather and climate change. These scholars argue that traditional knowledge may provide an informal record of communities' observations of local changes in the environment and climate over time, thus offering useful insights to fill the paucity of scientific data about changing trends and patterns of local seasons and weather, and other phenological observations made over several generations. These local measurements will aid historical climate reconstructions that will be useful to analyze and understand the weather and climate trends, and so further increase the confidence and accuracy in the projection of possible future scenarios. Many studies explored this and found good agreement on some aspects and poor agreement on others such as rainfall trends. For instance, Ayal et al. ( 2015), Huntington et al. ( 2004) and Roncoli et al. ( 2002) agree that the local measurement may aid in the location-specific historical analysis of the trends in onset, duration, and distribution of seasonal rainfall or environmental changes. While Lebel ( 2013), Mackinson ( 2001) and Speranza et al. ( 2010) contend that because local measurement focuses on timing, not the quantity of rainfall, it may fail in aiding the analysis of the quantification of trends in rainfall. Additionally, they argued that because local measurement uses different parameters and scales, it may be incompatible with science, thereby would make the analysis challenging. The following section builds on this discussion by exploring the relevance of traditional prediction methods in the context of Mozambique.

Study setting and methods

Mozambique provides a highly relevant context to explore the use and importance of traditional drought prediction methods by small-scale farmers in rain-fed areas. Agriculture remains the primary economic activity of the country, practiced by approximately 80% of the population, of which 95% practice the activity under rain-fed conditions. The majority of these farmers practicing rain-fed agriculture live in rural areas (Uaiene 2008), which continue to have limited, or no, access to scientific forecasts. Due to several years of independence (1964-1974) and civil war (1977-1992), Mozambique continues to have a highly reduced number of functional meteorological stations, so that most rural communities, including the study sites, do not have one. The country has only 27 synoptic weather stations, each station providing coverage for 29,000 km ²; thus, there are significant amounts of missing data (INGC 2009). Moreover, the Mozambican National Meteorological Institute (INAM) is limited in its capacity to adequately monitor, forecast, and communicate the current weather and climate, or to analyze the past and present trends to help predict future drought situation, location, extent, or magnitude (INGC 2009). The country also lacks a comprehensive system to adequately manage drought (Muller 2014). The fact that the country is one of the most vulnerable in the world to natural disasters and climate change, ranking third among the African countries, adds extra weight to the problem (Venton et al. 2013; World Bank 2014). Thus, traditional methods to predict rainfall and timely make farm-related decisions are highly relevant and continue to be the most widely used methods in most rural communities. The selected study site, Gaza, is one of the provinces with significant geographical gaps in meteorological station coverage and is one of the most affected by drought, which occurs in seven out of every 10 years (Uaiene 2008).

Within Gaza province, the specific study locations were the districts of Chibuto (Gomba and Magondzwene communities) and Guija (Mbala-Vala and Chimbembe communities), both located in the south-west. As in the rest of the country, small-scale rain-fed agriculture is the primary economic activity in Gaza, practiced in an average area of around 1 ha. Women constitute the majority of farmers and inhabitants of the province (around 60%). The province also registers a low number of people who are over 45 years old (less than 20%) (MAE 2005). For instance, in Gomba, Chibuto, where I had access to a more detailed list of the inhabitants, which included age, people over 45 years old constituted only 1.63% of them. These demographics are attributed to several reasons, such as labor migration to South Africa, or to other locations within the country, and early death of men between 15 and 49 years old due to HIV-Aids, and tuberculosis (Gawaya 2008). Agriculture is also characterized by the use of traditional cultivation techniques, such as hoe (100%), animal traction (38.2%), and low-level use of chemical fertilizers (1.6%) and pesticides (1.4%) (MINAG 2012). The main cultivated crops are cassava, maize, and beans (butter and cowpea). Although there is considerable variation in level and distribution between and throughout the years, two typical seasons characterize the climate of the districts, regions and the country in general: a cool and dry 'winter' season from May to September (average temperatures of around 20 °C); and a warm and rainy 'summer' season from October or November to April, with December and January being the hottest months (with average temperatures exceeding 28-30 °C), and February the rainiest (Hulme et al. 2001).

However, rainfall is very low, varying between 400 and 600 mm per annum, and normally occurring on a series of isolated rain days and locations, barely exceeding 50 rain days per year. A mid-season dry spell often occurs during the rainy period, causing significant effects on crop yields. Therefore, agricultural activities start in November and are divided into four periods: early rains (November-January); rains, which can be used for a second planting (February-April); harvest of the first planting (May-July); and harvest of the second planting (August-October) (Cunguara et al. 2011). Livestock rearing is also commonly undertaken in both districts, the main livestock being cattle and goats, followed by sheep, pigs, and poultry (chicken and ducks). Livestock is rarely used for commercial purposes unless there is a major financial need. Cattle ownership is prestigious, and some animals are used as traction or drought for farming activities, while others are consumed on special occasions, such as family visits. The main off-farm activities are the production and commercialization of wood, charcoal, traditional alcoholic drink, and artisanal fishing (GDG 2012).

The study was conducted between April and September 2017, the first 3 months of which were spent in Chibuto and the remaining months in Guija. A total of 25 focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted to explore participants' conceptualizations of drought, their memories of past drought events and why those events were memorable to them, the diverse traditional methods they use to predict drought, access to other sources of forecasting, and viewpoints of the reliability and accuracy of all forecast types accessed and used. Each FGD comprised six to eight participants and were organized according to participants' gender and age group (three age groups per gender: 16-24; 25-44; and over 45 years old). Participants were randomly selected based on a list of habitants of the communities supplied by the leaders. A snowball sampling was also used to replace the absent participants selected randomly. These groupings were intended to make the participants feel more comfortable with one another and therefore more likely to express their knowledge and viewpoints in front of each other. The FGDs were useful as they facilitated comparison between respondents of the amount and type of knowledge they have of traditional prediction methods.

Twelve interviews with key informants (community leaders, governmental bodies, and NGOs) were also conducted to explore the kinds of drought-related information that they provide to farmers and to investigate the nature of drought adaptation strategies being carried out at the study sites and their outcomes. Additionally, the study made use of official documents and reports from the government and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)‚ journal articles, online newspapers, handbooks, and field reports related to the areas under study. All the interviews were audio recorded to ensure a complete transcript as possible of each discussion could be produced. Photographs and field notes of participants' behaviors, activities, interactions, and settings complemented the data collection by allowing a more rigorous capture and subsequent description of the context of the study sites. NVivo was used to analyze the data, collected and organized through a coding scheme, to establish similarities and differences in group responses.

Results

Before this section explores how farmers in the study site traditionally predict the occurrence of drought events, the current contextual situation, and relevance of their traditional prediction methods in terms of the accuracy and reliability, it is essential to understand what farmers identify or define as drought to further have a better understanding of what farmers are predicting. In this section, the paper draws on the empirical data to demonstrate how farmers conceptualize drought and compare it with the concept of agricultural drought, which is adopted by the INGC. It then explores the diverse methods farmers use to forecast drought based or not on their definition, and how farmers perceive the links between the current changes in the weather, climate, and environment, and the methods their use to predict drought.

Farmers' conceptualization of drought

Results show that farmers define drought based on its negative impacts on their farming activities and livelihoods. Similar findings among Tanzanian and Spanish farmers were reported by Slegers ( 2008) and Urquijo and De Stefano ( 2016)‚ respectively. Based on the most cited definitions of drought by participants, the information was combined to conceptualize drought as a lack of rain that makes rain-fed crop production difficult or impossible, dries up water sources and grass, causes thirst and hunger for people and livestock, and results in livestock death. Livestock, especially cattle, were always mentioned by farmers because of the crucial social and economic role these animals play in their lives. Clearly, what farmers actually consider drought is the lack of rain. However, the concept of agricultural drought accounts for a shortfall in rainfall over an extended period that leads to suboptimal availability of water and soil moisture for their adequate farming activities (Wilhite et al. 2014). Therefore, some farmers argued that they feel affected by drought when it happens before planting and not after, since following planting they can always get some production for household consumption, such as 'green leaves' from a plant known as cacana ( Momordica balsamina). Slegers ( 2008) also noted similar perception among Tanzanian farmers who perceive drought as complete crop failure, not a reduced crop production due to rainfall deficiency; thus, they believe have never experienced a drought.

Farmers' methods used to predict drought

Access to meteorological forecasts

Only regarding the recent drought occurring in the country, have 62.5% of farmers in the study site begun to gain access to seasonal meteorological drought forecasts, although this is not location specific. Their main sources of information are through local authorities (57.6%), radio (32%), and family and friends (10.4%). The information provided concerns the possibility of drought occurrence during the season and advice about what to do to make timely preparations for the upcoming event to reduce its negative impacts. Such preparations include: storing seeds for planting when the rain starts; selling livestock; or finding other sources of income (e.g., production and sale of traditional mats, charcoal, or wood) to provide money for food. Most participants stated that they use the seasonal meteorological drought forecast because their personal experiences of diverse hazards, such as floods and strong winds, meant they could confirm that the information provided was accurate. Additionally, they perceive local authorities as reliable because they are seen to be at the top of the hierarchy of the social structure, and thus respected and their advice followed. In fact, in their framework to diagnose barriers to adapt to the changing climate, Moser and Ekstrom ( 2010) argue that people give enormous consideration to the source of information provided. The perception, or evidence, that they have not been wrong in the past constitutes the basis on which to build trust, although this is something that can easily be undermined (Patt and Gwata 2002). Therefore, although some farmers have argued to the contrary, most consider the meteorological information useful for them to make timely preparations for the expected adversity.

Traditional prediction methods

All farmers in FGDs reported that their main sources of the seasonal drought forecast for farm-related decisions are their traditional prediction methods. A total of 11 traditional prediction methods were identified in the study sites (see Table 1) and grouped into four categories of indicators: celestial bodies (3); weather and climate (5); physical environmental (2); and biological (1). As shown in Table 1, the indicators serve to predict, near the rainy season, the imminent possibility of no rain during the following day or night. However, when these indicators become recurrent for long periods of time, then they become signs of possible drought for upcoming agricultural season.

Table 1 Small-scale farmers' short-term traditional drought prediction indicators (n = 25 FGD)

The celestial body indicators farmers have been observing around the rainy season to predict drought include the moon's appearance and position (92% of the FGDs), the sun's appearance (8% of the FGDs) and the stars' appearance and quantity (44% of the FGDs). According to these farmers, the main signs from the moon of upcoming drought are: when it rises 'the other way around,' i.e., turned to the top with its back turned to earth; when it rises in a perpendicular or inclined position; or, when it is clear, without a circle which gives the appearance of rain or heavy clouds. Similar findings were reported by Eakin ( 1999) in relation to the moon's appearance and backward position, but not concerning the inclined position. Also, signs of no rain soon include when the sun is clearly visible, without clouds around or a circle that looks to have water on it; or when the stars are numerous and radiant in the sky and brighten up the earth, or when the stars are dispersed in the sky.

Regarding weather and climate, despite farmers having mentioned using indicators such as very hot temperatures throughout the year, and the occurrence of thunder and lightning without rain, to predict drought, signs from wind (72% of the FGDs) and clouds (88% of the FGDs) were the most cited. According to these farmers, the main signs of forthcoming drought are: when there are no clouds; or when the clouds are clear and dispersed in the sky during the rainy season; or when they have been showing this behavior over a long period during the year; or when during the morning the clouds are dark and showing signs of rain, but then they start to clear during the day until the sky becomes completely clear and no rain falls. The appearance of the clouds was also reported as being used in different parts of the world as a short-time predictor of rainfall, such as in India and Mexico (Eakin 1999; Santha et al. 2010).

However, the farmers' interpretation of the signs of drought from the wind around the rainy season were contradictory within the communities. Even though, in both study locations, 36% of the FGDs argued that it is a sign of drought when the wind blows in one direction only (e.g., from the West), 20% of farmers in FGDs in Guija district argued to the contrary. These farmers contended that the wind blowing in two opposite directions is a sign of drought. However, in Chibuto, 12% of the groups rejected both views with the justification that, independent of the direction, the fact that it is windy means drought will occur because there is no rain with wind. Nonetheless, even in other parts of the world, the interpretation of the wind is still quite diverse. Some examples are the similar findings from Mengistu ( 2011) of the interpretation of the wind blowing in one direction as a sign of drought, and the opposing findings from Santha et al. ( 2010). Nonetheless, much of this confusion related to the interpretation of the direction, presence, or absence of the wind as a sign of drought came from those under 45 years old.

The use of physical environmental indicators such as dew and fog to predict drought was only reported in Magondzwene community in Chibuto. According to farmers, signs of upcoming drought occur when there is no dew on the field early in the morning, or when the fog disappears by around 7 a.m., rather than persisting until around 10 a.m. as is usual when the rainy season is approaching or underway. In fact, several times during the fieldwork I faced intense fog on the morning trips to the communities in Chibuto, and indeed it disappeared before 8 a.m. with the intensity of the sun. Despite animal behavior being frequently reported as a biological indicator to predict the weather in different parts of Africa (e.g., Ayal et al. 2015; Chang'a et al. 2010; Speranza et al. 2010), it was not so common in the study sites, even though livestock rearing is commonplace. Only one group discussion of males over 45 years old in Gomba, Chibuto, mentioned this, explaining that they predict drought when their animals change their behavior, becoming quieter and not running or playing as much as usual.

Perceptions of changes affecting drought indicators

Farmers have recognized diverse changes in their surrounding environment (trees, grass, fog, water levels, and soil) and in the weather and climate (wind, temperature, and rainfall) over the years. They also recognized that some of these changes have affected the accuracy and reliability of their predictions. For instance, 52% of the FGDs in both study locations noticed a significant reduction in the quantity of stars compared to the past and stated that this has affected their interpretation of the signs from this indicator. In the past, a reduced number of stars meant rainfall would come in a few hours, but now such a sign is almost meaningless.

A similar decline in the use of fog and dew as a sign of drought was also registered as farmers noticed that now fog does not last as long as it used to, and often it has already disappeared when they wake up due to intense heat, even during the winter. The intense heat during the evening also affected the formation of dew, as it is now barely seen in the morning and its absence is felt by the crops. Additionally, the intense heat throughout the year that has been verified in the country over the past decades has affected farmers' interpretation of hot temperatures which endure for extended periods in a year as a sign of drought. Farmers have explained that now summer periods are warmer and longer, and winters are much shorter and not so cold. Indeed, records show that since 1960 the temperature in the country has increased between 1 and 1.6 °C, which was accompanied by an increase in the number of hot days (INAM 2013). Lastly, farmers have lost confidence in the use of the start of the rainfall as an indicator of drought as they have noticed that, nowadays, it starts late and is irregular, thus while in the past they would plant from September to December, now they no longer know the exact months they will plant. Some farmers even contend that they no longer plant during the summer season. In fact, records also indicate a later start of the rainfall season since the 60s (INGC 2009), and inter-annual variability regarding rainfall beginning and cessation, which makes it challenging to determine the official start of the agricultural season (MICOA 2013).

I witnessed some other reliability issues related to the clouds, during the fieldwork since there were some days that the sky was cloudy as described by participants as indicating rain in the past, but it did not rain. There were also some days where there were no signals from any traditional indicators, but it rained. However, on these occasions, the rain was of such light intensity that participants considered it only useful to dampen the dust on the roads and in their yards, not for planting. Similar reliability issues, but with the moon's position, were also found by Eakin ( 1999) when interviewing farmers in Tlaxcala, Mexico. Therefore, in cases when farmers fail to predict the occurrence of drought, they start observing visible signs that drought is already occurring through plant behavior (52% of the FGDs); delays in rainfall beginning (12% of the FGDs) or reduction in water levels in the lake (8% of the FGDs). They explained that they can observe the occurrence of drought when the trees, crops, woods, and grasses start to dry up, they look brown as if they have been burned, and they lose their leaves. They can also notice that drought is already happening when they observe the stunted development of their crops and the dryness of the soils (Fig. 1) and perceive delays in rainfall beginning (not raining between September and December).

The stunted development of maize crops as a result of the occurrence of dry spell. The photograph in the left side is from Chibuto district and in the right side is from Guija district

Notwithstanding, farmers' difficulties with their prediction indicators have not impeded them from using their methods to make farm-related decisions since there are also occasions when the methods still appear to be useful to them. Even when they are provided with meteorological forecasts, and despite the trust they have in this source of information, farmers continue to value traditional prediction methods and always make use of them for confirmation of other sources. They ask the elders to use their knowledge, wisdom, complexity and diversity of forecast methods to traditionally predict the weather and to certify or deny the scientific forecasts given by the local authorities to the community. The elders' predictions are then what primarily influences farmers' motivations to use the scientific forecasts or not. One such example was found during this study when farmers explained that, although the last drought has ended recently, they became aware, through the local authorities and radio, of the possibility of occurrence of another drought in the upcoming season, and they believed in the information, and have been preparing for the event because the elders followed-up and positively confirmed it.

Discussion and conclusion

This paper uses a case study of small-scale farmers in rain-fed areas in Gaza province in southern Mozambique to understand how farmers predict drought and the contextual situation regarding the accuracy and reliability of the traditional prediction methods under the current weather and conditions of climate uncertainty and variability. The paper also assesses the opportunities that farmers' predictions may bring to their activities and daily lives. Due to their dependence on the natural environment for their livelihood activities, farmers often observe, monitor and use traditional indicators to predict the weather and climate. These methods have acted as important tools to help them analyze the implications of the prediction and make farm-related decisions, such as the type of crops to plant each season, when to start planting and precautionary measures to take to avoid losses or prevent hardship (Chand et al. 2014, Green et al. 2010). The methods have been fundamental in helping farmers to reduce their exposure and vulnerability to weather and environmental changes (Nyong et al. 2007; Roncoli et al. 2009).

Farmers have been using a total of 11 traditional drought prediction indicators, either individually or combined, as required to increase their prediction certainty. However, results show that the most used indicators are the moon's appearance and position (92% of the FGDs), clouds' appearance (88%), wind direction (72% of the FGDs), star quantity and appearance (44% of the FGDs) and plant behavior (40% of the FGDs). They not only use their traditional prediction methods because of being poor and highly illiterate, as stated by Muyambo et al. ( 2017), but also because it is part of their cultural knowledge and inheritance which they believe should be passed from generation to generation. They have learned these methods from their grandparents and parents during their story-telling moments around the fire, and they also transmit them on to their descendants. Additionally, due to the very sparse or non-existent weather stations in most rural areas in the country, which makes drought monitoring and early warning a daunting task, on many occasions, farmers' traditional drought prediction methods are the main, or only, source of information for them.

Despite increased efforts by government to diffuse the regional seasonal meteorological forecasts through the local authorities or radio, farmers do not always have access to the forecasts, for which there are several reasons. Some examples are: non-participation in their community meetings, lack of radio ownership, or in other cases, the information is simply not transmitted to farmers. Even though radio constitutes the only medium through which farmers have access to information due to the lack of electrification, less than 3% of the farmers owned one. Moreover, despite the presence of NGOs in the study sites, and the existence of the INGC in the country, farmers reported they did not receive drought forecasts from them, but only information related to predictions of cyclones, floods, strong winds, and storms. They explained that the Red Cross and INGC have even formed a committee of those specially trained to disseminate these kinds of forecasts through the use of flags, where, for instance, a blue flag means to prepare for the occurrence of heavy winds within 24 or 48 h, a red flag means the wind will come within a few hours or is already blowing, or a yellow flag indicates heavy winds and rainfall within 24 h. These are the same colors used by INAM as part of their cyclone alert system. Nonetheless, lessons could be taken from these mechanisms of communications to incorporate in early warning systems for drought.

Nevertheless, results show that farmers are aware of, and acknowledge that, the current unpredictability, variability, and changes in weather and climate negatively affect the reading, interpretation, accuracy, and reliability of most of their prediction indicators, and thus their farming activities. Thus, like other findings (Chinlampianga 2011; Kempton 1997; King et al. 2008; Tambo and Abdoulaye 2012), farmers now face some difficulties in their ability to predict when the rain will start, so they can start to plant their crops, or if the rain will be good enough for their agricultural season, as they did in the past. As a result of the difficulties with the predictions, on some occasions, farmers do not obtain the expected yields as unexpected dry spells occur during plant development. What is more, because of their difficulties in predicting drought, farmers explained that nowadays every raindrop represents an opportunity to plant their crops that cannot be missed, as they cannot be sure that rain will come again at another time in the year. This is the reason farmers have started planting during the winter season (April-August), not a traditional practice in their communities since by doing so they can guarantee their harvest and their families' subsistence.

Adding to that, although farmers have not recognized that some other changes in their indicators affect their prediction methods, the fact that only one FGD of over 45 years old mentioned the use of some traditional prediction indicators, such as animal behavior and dew, suggests a decline in the use of these methods when compared to other indicators, which were mentioned by people from different age groups. However, it is not clear whether or not this reduction in the use of such indicators, and in their interpretations, were caused by the reduction of their accuracy or availability as, for instance, farmers continue to own livestock, although in much reduced quantities when compared to the past. On the other hand, even though the few existing elders continue to transmit their prediction knowledge to their descendants, similar to findings from Kalanda-Joshua et al. ( 2011), a decrease was also registered in the diversity and complexity of traditional prediction methods among younger people. According to Chang'a et al. ( 2010), traditionally it has been the elderly who have the local knowledge and who subsequently pass this knowledge on to the next generations. Thus, results showed that while people older than 45 years old would give more diverse and detailed information about their reading and interpretation of signs from the celestial bodies, weather and climate, younger people's (from 16 to 24 years old) knowledge of those signs was shown to be much reduced. This latter group mostly gave examples of biological and physical environmental indicators, which were not predictions but visible signs that drought was already occurring, such as when the crops and grasses start drying up, or when water levels in the lake reduce.

The reduced number of elders and reduced knowledge and recognition of local prediction methods is threatening not only the richness and complexity but also the endurance of those methods and farmers' ability to make a timely response to drought. Ensor and Berger ( 2009) argue that the fact that education has become more available to younger people means that they learn what is taught at school, and their unique community knowledge is not transmitted to them. In addition, it is argued that as the younger generation spend less time in direct contact with the environment and, as agriculture is no longer their only livelihood activity, they gain a little experience in reading and interpreting drought indicators through long-term observation of their environment and climate (Speranza et al. 2010). In fact, most of the younger participants in the study, mainly males, had more than one livelihood activity, and they often referred to off-farm activities as their main ones, as their wives were responsible for the on-farm activities.

Notwithstanding, as the natural climate variability associated with climate change is expected to lead to never before experienced extreme weather and climate events (IPCC 2012), and specifically with the expected stronger influence of future El Niño events, and the increase in frequency of extreme drought in Mozambique by 2060 (INAM 2012), farmers will increasingly require timely drought forecasts for their farming-related decisions. Since the climatic projections and early warning systems to provide better information to vulnerable people in the country are still non-satisfactory (Governo de Mocambique 2017), farmers will continue to rely on their traditional prediction as their main, or some cases only, methods to predict drought. The fact that farmers have themselves made their own judgement about the accuracy and reliability of certain methods they use, made them more aware of the risks they may face and which type of methods they can partially or entirely rely on, such as the moon's appearance and position. Nevertheless, as the moon is only visible for part of the month this may force the farmers to revert to the use of the others available indicators, which were reported to have become less reliable. Tailored and robust traditional prediction methods would be of great benefit to farmers and for scientific research into drought adaptation.

The future of traditional prediction methods and the potential increase in their accuracy and reliability depends on the farmers' own abilities to enhance, preserve, and validate the methods by tailoring them to fit the new environmental, weather, and climatic conditions, or by the development of new methods based on that. This is because most of the traditional prediction methods they use were created by continually observing the indicators in different environmental, weather, and climatic conditions as registered today; as they have changed over years, so have the indicators (Ayal et al. 2015; Egeru 2012; Speranza et al. 2010). Thus, the indicators should not be interpreted in the same way as they were in the past. Since farmers have a long history of adaptation to the changing environment through adjustments to their farming practices (Adger et al. 2013; Lebel 2013; Nyong et al. 2007), their traditional prediction methods should also be part of the process to endure. Indeed, Speranza et al. ( 2010) contend that with the gradual changes that are occurring, local knowledge may not remain static as local communities may progressively identify new indicators. However, the paper acknowledges that it will take time for people to identify and share the new indicators that work under the changing conditions.

The paper emphasizes that the adjustments in the farmers' prediction methods must be accompanied by the transmission of this knowledge to the younger generations. Even though the younger generation currently has more access to education, there are off-school opportunities to transmit the knowledge to them. However, as the younger generation is more interested in the scientific forecasts (Ayal et al. 2015), to ensure that the taught knowledge will be put into practice, the teaching should be accompanied by efforts to revitalize their interest in their traditional prediction methods as well as increase awareness of the importance of the methods. Thus, there is a need for communities to find locally appropriate mechanisms in order to achieve the above revitalization. This will help to safeguard the continued existence of their local knowledge, as this is, and will continue to be, their main source of forecast information, as well as a powerful tool for their farm-related decisions and adaptation to drought. For example, as the younger generation enjoys socializing with friends after school, perhaps gathering them together as a group for collective learning can, to some extent, be attractive to them and create a 'positive competitive and cooperative learning environment' during and after the sessions that will contribute to maximizing their learning. This strategy may result in them frequently observing their environment and climate in order to read and interpret signs and exhibit their skills to each other. The strategy might also provide opportunities to transmit the knowledge to more people, including those who do not have elders in their families.

On the other hand, despite not location-specific, the paper also recognizes the role of meteorological forecasting in farmers' decision making and adaptation to drought, and believes that the short-term meteorological forecasting in poor countries such as Mozambique will improve with time with the creation of more observation sites and better tools to predict and monitor the weather. Since farmers showed trust and acceptance of meteorological forecasts and taking into consideration the nonsatisfactory early warning systems that predominate in most rural communities in Mozambique, combining both scientific and traditional methods would also be crucial to strengthen the success of the forecast, and thus to reduce farmers' vulnerability. One potential way of combining these methods could be through Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) for seasonal climate forecasts and decision making, which has been increasingly researched and implemented in parts of the world such as sub-Saharan Africa. During PSP both traditional and scientific climate forecasts are shared and interpreted by community members and the relevant governmental and development bodies. Such an approach can also constitute a powerful way to revitalize the value of the traditional prediction methods among the community members as well as among the governmental and development bodies.

PSP would enhance the governmental and development actors' awareness of the methods and the unique roles the methods have played, currently play, and will continue to play in helping farmers to make timely predictions of drought, and other natural hazards, and reduce their vulnerability to these events, in spite of the current difficulties faced. As supported by Kalanda-Joshua et al. ( 2011), the awareness and understanding of the nature of traditional prediction methods will further facilitate the communication of scientific forecasts in a way that is meaningful and relevant to farmers' decision-making. This may facilitate the interpretation of the forecasts and the successful combination of both forecast methods, as well as the development of context-specific and feasible strategies for timely responses to drought. This may represent a win-win opportunity for the farmers, the government and their development partners, as by reducing farmers' vulnerability to drought it may also reduce their dependence on food aid.

Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission (CSC) (Grant No. MZCS-2015-372) in the UK, as part of a PhD Scholarship.

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School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Whiteknights Campus, Reading, RG6 6AR, UK

Daniela Salite

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Correspondence to Daniela Salite.

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An ethical clearance of the study was requested from and granted by the University Research Ethics Committee. I also confirm that the selected people voluntarily participated in the study, they were aware that they could discontinue their participation from the research at any time if they wish so, and that the study was not using information in a way that could directly or indirectly affect them adversely. Moreover, all participants were informed that their participation was anonymous, and to further maintain their privacy and anonymity, the filled forms and results would be coded rather than named, unless they agreed to be identified.

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Salite, D. Traditional prediction of drought under weather and climate uncertainty: analyzing the challenges and opportunities for small-scale farmers in Gaza province, southern region of Mozambique. Nat Hazards 96, 1289-1309 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03613-4
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Keywords

Drought

Traditional prediction

Local knowledge

Adaptation

Weather uncertainty

Climate uncertainty

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Traditional prediction of drought under weather and climate uncertainty: analyzing the challenges and opportunities for small-scale farmers in Gaza province, southern region of Mozambique - Natural Hazards

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
This paper explores the traditional indicators that small-scale farmers in Gaza province in southern Mozambique use to predict drought events on their rain-fed farms. It analyzes the contextual situation regarding the accuracy and reliability of the traditional prediction methods under the current weather and conditions of climate uncertainty and variability, and the opportunities that their prediction methods can bring to reduce their current and future exposure and vulnerabilities to drought.

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Dealing with uncertainty: integrating local and scientific knowledge of the climate and weather

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Dealing with uncertainty: integrating local and scientific knowledge of the climate and weather

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Emma Visman ,

Corresponding Author

Members of the Humanitarian Futures Programme, King's College London

Correspondence: Emma Visman, Department of Geography, King's College London, 138-142 The Strand, Strand Bridge House, London WC2 R1HH, United Kingdom. Telephone: +44 (0)1303840309; mobile: +44 (0)7905620794. E-mail: emma.1.visman@kcl.ac.uk Search for more papers by this author

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Abstract

While climate science has made great progress in the projection of weather and climate information, its uptake by local communities remains largely elusive. This paper describes two innovative approaches that strengthen understanding between the providers and users of weather and climate information and support-appropriate application: (1) knowledge timelines, which compare different sources and levels of certainty in community and scientific weather and climate information; and (2) participatory downscaling, which supports users to translate national and regional information into a range of outcomes at the local level. Results from piloting these approaches among flood-prone communities in Senegal and drought-prone farmers in Kenya highlight the importance of co-producing 'user-useful' climate information. Recognising that disaster risk management actions draw on a wide range of knowledge sources, climate information that can effectively support community-based decision-making needs to be integrated with local knowledge systems and based on an appreciation of the inherent uncertainty of weather and climate information.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Dealing with uncertainty: integrating local and scientific knowledge of the climate and weather

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Emma Visman , Corresponding Author Members of the Humanitarian Futures Programme, King's College London Correspondence: Emma Visman, Department of Geography, King's College London, 138-142 The Strand, Strand Bridge House, London WC2 R1HH, United Kingdom. Telephone: +44 (0)1303840309; mobile: +44 (0)7905620794.

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Climate services in Africa: Re-imagining an inclusive, robust and sustainable service

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Climate services in Africa: Re-imagining an inclusive, robust and sustainable service

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Abstract

Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change because of its heightened sensitivity to climate variability and inadequate institutional adaptive capacity. Notwithstanding these challenges, Africa, and its inhabitants, have been confronting the vagaries of climate for centuries, including severe droughts and floods. Given this context, this paper provides a commentary on the efforts to ensure and enable climate services on the continent as well as a critical, reflexive assessment of activities in this varied landscape. A special focus on the institutional frameworks and the underlying knowledge systems that support and interface with climate services will be examined. A central question underpinning the paper is: to what extent is the expanding landscape of climate services being endogenously driven in Africa? Finally, some recommendations for future efforts to enhance effective institutions and knowledge brokering and facilitate better climate services in Africa are suggested.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Climate services in Africa: Re-imagining an inclusive, robust and sustainable service

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change because of its heightened sensitivity to climate variability and inadequate institutional adaptive capacity. Notwithstanding these challenges, Africa, and its inhabitants, have been confronting the vagaries of climate for centuries, including severe droughts and floods.

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Stakeholders’ perceptions of the overall effectiveness of early warning systems and risk assessments for weather-related hazards in Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia

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Stakeholders’ perceptions of the overall effectiveness of early warning systems and risk assessments for weather-related hazards in Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia

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Stakeholders' perceptions of the overall effectiveness of early warning systems and risk assessments for weather-related hazards in Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia - Natural Hazards

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Low-income countries are significantly more vulnerable than high-income countries to the risks posed by natural hazards. This paper describes the findings of research into stakeholders' perceptions of the overall effectiveness of early warnings and risk assessments for weather-related hazards (i.e. cyclones, floods, droughts and landslides), for humanitarian and development purposes in low-income countries in Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia.

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An Overview of Drought Monitoring and Prediction Systems at Regional and Global Scales

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An Overview of Drought Monitoring and Prediction Systems at Regional and Global Scales

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Indigenous knowledge and early warning systems in the Lower Shire Valley inMalawi 

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Indigenous knowledge and early warning systems in the Lower Shire Valley inMalawi 

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What Climate Services Do Farmers and Pastoralists Need in Malawi?

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What Climate Services Do Farmers and Pastoralists Need in Malawi?

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CCAFS: CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

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This report presents final findings from the baseline data collection exercise conducted for the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Adaptation Programme in Africa. The GFCS programme seeks to improve climate services for agriculture, food security, heath and disaster risk reduction in Tanzania and Malawi. Under the auspices of this GFCS project, the CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is responsible to support baseline data collection and monitoring and evaluation to evaluate climate services for farmers and pastoralists in both countries. The purpose of this report is to inform national partners on farmers' current needs and access to climate information services. Households interviewed in Malawi are mostly crop farmers, and have access to conventional climate information. However, they rely more on indigenous knowledge, personal experience and traditional cropping calendar than on climate information for their farm decision-making. Respondents would like to receive more advice about improved cropping practices, and better communication of climate information through village meetings and in their local languages. The climate information farmers would like to receive includes forecasts of extreme events, onset of the rains, seasonal rainfall, daily weather, and pest and diseases. These forecasts should be timely. Seasonal forecasts should be available preferably months before the start of the season to allow farmers to integrate them in their farm management decisions. The preferred communication channels were visits from extension agents, radio messages and SMS in cell phones. Farmers trust information from government extension agents, radio presenters and NGOs. Women particularly trust NGO workers.

Citation

Coulibaly YJ, Kundhlande G, Tall A, Kaur H, Hansen J. 2015. Which climate services do farmers and pastoralists need in Malawi? Baseline Study for the GFCS Adaptation Program in Africa. CCAFS Working Paper no. 112. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Which climate services do farmers and pastoralists need in Malawi?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
This report presents final findings from the baseline data collection exercise conducted for the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Adaptation Programme in Africa. The GFCS programme seeks to improve climate services for agriculture, food security, heath and disaster risk reduction in Tanzania and Malawi.

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Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information

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Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information

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Author information

Affiliations

1. USAID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Washington, DC, 20523-8602, USA

Maxx Dilley

2. Disaster Management Center, University of Wisconsin, 432 North Lake Street, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

Maxx Dilley

About this article

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Dilley, M. Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information. Climatic Change 45, 63-73 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005636932536
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Keywords

Seasonal Climate

Climate Information

Climate Forecast

Regional Food

Drought Risk

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Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA): Field Manual

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Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA): Field Manual

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Dorward P, Clarkson G, Stern R. 2015. Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA): Field Manual. Walker Institute, University of Reading.

Permanent link to cite or share this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68687

ENGLISH Smallholder farmers are key to food security in sub-Saharan Africa where two thirds of the population depend on small-scale, rain-fed farming as their main source of food and income. Critical farming and household decisions depend upon the weather, for example, how much rain falls, the length and start date of the rainfall season and the timing of dry spells. Such aspects of the weather vary considerably from year to year. The Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach aims to facilitate farmers to make informed decisions based on accurate, location specific, climate and weather information; locally relevant crop, livestock and livelihood options; and with the use of participatory tools to aid their decision making. This field manual is a step by step guide to working though the PICSA approach with farmer groups. It is primarily for the use of facilitators (e.g. NGO and extension field staff who have received training in the use of the PICSA approach). The PICSA approach is divided into twelve steps to be carried out with groups of farmers. Due to the location specific nature of PICSA there are a number of preparatory activities that need to be completed before field staff are trained in the approach.

ESPAÑOL Los pequeños agricultores son un elemento clave de la seguridad alimentaria en el África subsahariana, donde la agricultura de secano a pequeña escala es la principal fuente de alimento e ingreso de dos tercios de la población. Las decisiones importantes relacionadas con el hogar y la producción agrícola y pecuaria dependen del clima, por ejemplo, cantidad de lluvia, longitud y fecha de inicio de la estación lluviosa y el momento en que se den épocas de sequía. Tales aspectos del clima varían considerablemente de un año a otro. El enfoque de los Servicios Integrados Participativos de Clima para la Agricultura (PICSA, sus siglas en inglés) busca facilitar que los agricultores tomen decisiones fundamentadas, basándose en información climática y meteorológica precisa y específica por sitio; cultivos pertinentes según su ubicación; alternativas de especies pecuarias y actividades de subsistencia; todo mediante el uso de herramientas participativas. Este manual de campo brinda instrucciones paso a paso para trabajar el enfoque PICSA con grupos de agricultores. Está dirigido principalmente a facilitadores (p. ej. ONG y extensionistas que han recibido capacitación sobre el uso del enfoque PICSA). Este enfoque consta de doce pasos que se llevan a cabo con grupos de agricultores. Dada la naturaleza específica por lugar, hay una serie de actividades de preparación que es necesario realizar antes de la capacitación del personal.

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Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA): Field Manual

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Dorward P, Clarkson G, Stern R. 2015. Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA): Field Manual. Walker Institute, University of Reading. Permanent link to cite or share this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68687 ENGLISH Smallholder farmers are key to food security in sub-Saharan Africa where two thirds of the population depend on small-scale, rain-fed farming as their main source of food and income.

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Agricultural extreme drought assessment at global level using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS)

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Agricultural extreme drought assessment at global level using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS)

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Abstract

Drought is one of the most frequent climate-related disasters occurring across large portions of globe often with devastating consequences for the food security of agricultural households. This study using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) analyse the droughts occurred on the agricultural areas during the last 30 + years. In spite of the climate change's projections that foresee an increase on drought episodes this study reveal not clear trend on the number and/or intensity of droughts at global or continental level. El Niño/La Niña dominance phases show to explain most of the variation on the agricultural areas affected by drought. From the analysis of the most intense of each El Niño, La Niña and Neutral events (1950-2016) the study findings reveal a constant increase of the sea surface temperature (SST) for El Niño 3.4 region in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In addition a distancing between extreme El Niño events was detected and increase on "warm" Neutral events in recent years that could trigger favourable conditions for agricultural droughts in the future.

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Agricultural extreme drought assessment at global level using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS)

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Drought is one of the most frequent climate-related disasters occurring across large portions of globe often with devastating consequences for the food security of agricultural households. This study using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) analyse the droughts occurred on the agricultural areas during the last 30 + years.

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Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options

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Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options

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Abstract

Agriculture and the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are highly sensitive to climatic variability. Drought, in particular, represents one of the most important natural factors contributing to malnutrition and famine in many parts of the region. The overall impact of drought on a given country/region and its ability to recover from the resulting social, economic and environmental impacts depends on several factors. The economic, social and environmental impacts of drought are huge in SSA and the national costs and losses incurred threaten to undermine the wider economic and development gains made in the last few decades in the region. There is an urgent need to reduce the vulnerability of countries to climate variability and to the threats posed by climate change. This paper attempts to highlight the challenges of drought in SSA and reviews the current drought risk management strategies, especially the promising technological and policy options for managing drought risks to protect livelihoods and reduce vulnerability. The review suggests the possibilities of several ex ante and ex post drought management strategies in SSA although their effectiveness depends on agro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Existing technological, policy and institutional risk management measures need to be strengthened and integrated to manage drought ex ante and to minimize the ex post negative effects for vulnerable households and regions. A proactive approach that combines promising technological, institutional and policy solutions to manage the risks within vulnerable communities implemented by institutions operating at different levels (community, sub-national, and national) is considered to be the way forward for managing drought and climate variability.

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Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options

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Agriculture and the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are highly sensitive to climatic variability. Drought, in particular, represents one of the most important natural factors contributing to malnutrition and famine in many parts of the region. The overall impact of drought on a given country/region and its ability to recover from the resulting social, economic and environmental impacts depends on several factors.

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Understanding the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions

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Understanding the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions

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Drought management is inefficient because feedbacks between drought and people are not fully understood. In this human-influenced era, we need to rethink the concept of drought to include the human role in mitigating and enhancing drought.

The current multiyear California drought has severely affected both environment and economy. In this area where water supply is highly artificial, water storage in reservoirs and groundwater abstraction provide water during dry periods, but also increase evaporation and decrease groundwater levels, and thereby exacerbate the drought. In contrast, management responses, such as water transfer and water-saving measures, alleviate drought conditions. The ongoing California drought clearly demonstrates how strongly water and society are intertwined during drought periods.

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Drought in the Anthropocene - Nature Geoscience

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Drought management is inefficient because feedbacks between drought and people are not fully understood. In this human-influenced era, we need to rethink the concept of drought to include the human role in mitigating and enhancing drought. The current multiyear California drought has severely affected both environment and economy.

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Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent-based approach

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Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent-based approach

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The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS)

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The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS)

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Drought early warning systems (DEWS) use networks of federal, tribal, state, local, and academic partners to make climate and drought science accessible and useful for decision makers. These systems improve stakeholders' capacity to monitor, forecast, plan for, and cope with the impacts of drought.

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Stakeholder Coinquiries on Drought Impacts, Monitoring, and Early Warning Systems

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Stakeholder Coinquiries on Drought Impacts, Monitoring, and Early Warning Systems

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Stakeholder Coinquiries on Drought Impacts, Monitoring, and Early Warning Systems

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What: The goal of the Drought Impacts: Vulnerability Thresholds in Monitoring and Early-Warning Research (DrIVER) project is to understand the links between natural (hydrometeorological) drought and ecological response and socioeconomic impacts to aid in developing enhanced drought early warning systems (DEWS).

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Farmers' decision to use drought early warning system in developing countries

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Farmers' decision to use drought early warning system in developing countries

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Highlights

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This study aimed to investigate the decision of farmers to use climate knowledge through the farming activity model

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Results indicated that farm external and physical factors influenced farmers' decision to use climatic information

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Results revealed that farmers' personality traits had an indirect relationship with farmers' decision to use climate information

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Attitude and objective of using climate information had a direct and positive relationship with farmers' decision to use climate information

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The findings can aid policymakers to design early alert programs to minimize the risk of drought

Abstract

Drought is a persistent, sluggish natural disaster in developing countries that has generated a financial burden and an unstable climate. Farmers should adopt early warning systems (EWS) in their strategies for monitoring drought to reduce its serious consequences. However, farmers in developing countries are reluctant to use EWS as their management strategies. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate the decision of farmers to use climate knowledge through the model of farming activity in Kermanshah Township, Iran. A surveyor questionnaire was used to gather data from 370 wheat farmers using random sampling methods in multi-stage clusters. Results revealed that the decision to use climate information is affected by personal factors, attitude towards climate information, objectives of using climate information, and external/physical farming factors. The result of this study has implications for drought management practitioners. To be specific, the results can aid policymakers to design early alert programs to minimize the risk of drought and thus move from conventional to climate smart agriculture.

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Farmers' decision to use drought early warning system in developing countries

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This study aimed to investigate the decision of farmers to use climate knowledge through the farming activity model * Results indicated that farm external and physical factors influenced farmers' decision to use climatic information * Results revealed that farmers' personality traits had an indirect relationship with farmers' decision to use

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Establishing Drought Early Warning Systems	 in	 West Asia and North Africa

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Establishing Drought Early Warning Systems	 in	 West Asia and North Africa

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Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought Management 

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Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought Management 

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Monitoring and evaluation of anticipatory actions for drought Guidance and tools for Forecast-based Financing programmes

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Monitoring and evaluation of anticipatory actions for drought Guidance and tools for Forecast-based Financing programmes

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Monitoring and evaluation of anticipatory actions for drought: Guidance and tools for Forecast-based Financing programmes

In 2021, WFP has developed this guidance which seeks to offer practical guidance and examples for monitoring and evaluating anticipatory actions for drought, helping to answer the overarching question of "Does drought FbF make a difference" to reduce ...
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# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Monitoring and evaluation of anticipatory actions for drought Guidance and tools for Forecast-based Financing programmes

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
In 2021, WFP has developed this guidance which seeks to offer practical guidance and examples for monitoring and evaluating anticipatory actions for drought, helping to answer the overarching question of "Does drought FbF make a difference" to reduce ... Download file