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Candidates of the Florida 15th Congressional District

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Candidates of the Florida 15th Congressional District

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Kristen Carlson (D)
Ross Spano (R)
No incumbents in this election, Republican, Dennis Ross is not seeking reelection for this seat.
Carlson is an attorney with experience in the private and public sector. She has worked as a prosecutor in Pasco County, general counsel for the Florida Department of Citrus, and chief counsel for the Florida Department of Transportation in Bartow.
She's a moderate democrat in the democratic party, she claims she is liberal on social issues and is a fiscal conservative.
Spano is a member of the Florida House of Representatives representing District 59. He was first elected there in 2012. He has held the position for 5 years. He owns a law firm, Christmas Spano & Owen. Served as Vice Chair on the Judiciary Committee in the Florida legislature.
Spano is a Conservative.

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In the 2016 Florida 15th Congressional District Election, incumbent Dennis Ross (Republican)  received 182,999 votes, 57.5% of the votes. His opponent, Democrat Jim Lange received 135,475 votes, and 42.5% of the votes.
In the 2016 Presidential Election Donald Trump won the district gaining 52.54% of the votes compared to Hillary Clinton's 43.85%
To vote in Florida, you must register by 29 days before the election, you must have proof of identification, you can send votes by mail. Early voting is offered to all registered voters.

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A poll from the New York Times taken from October 16-19, found that 43% of people supported Spano, 43% of people supported Carlson and 14% are undecided. They received data from 499 people. The margin of error was 4.7.
A Remington Research Poll conducted from October 17-18, found that 47% of voters will vote for Spano while 41% will vote for Carlson. The sample was taken from 1,369 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.64.
A Survey USA poll conducted October 9-14 found that Spano and Carlson are tied at 45% each. The sample was 591 likely voters and a margin of error is 4.6.

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Carlson Has Raised $1,297,512 the top contributors include:
Peace River Citrus Products | $20,500.00
University of California | $13,790.00
Bain & Co | $12,901.00
Bain Capital | $10,800.00
Citrus World | $9,100.00
Lowercase Capital | $8,100.00
Paul, Weiss et al | $7,700.00
Facebook Inc | $7,435.00
Stanford University | $6,783.00
Barnes, Richardson et al | $6,500.00
(Most of Carlson's funding has come from out of state)

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Spano has raised about $660,000 the top contributors include:
Club For Growth | $34,710
Vacation Innovations LLC | $13,500
Fanjul Corp | $10,800
Credit Union National Assn | $10,000
Mahority Cmte PAC | $10,000
Reclaim America PAC | $10,000
Alternative Energy Applications | $8,100
Amscot Financial | $8,100
CFS Consulting | $8,100
Carlton Fields | $7,900
Peregrine Defense Solutions LLC | $7,705
Associated Builders & Contractors | $7,500
US Sugar | $7,000
Faith Based Counselor | $5,400
Holtec International | $5,400
International Ship Repair | $5,400
KLH Capital | $5,400

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Gender: 47.9% Male, 52.1% Female
Race: 77.2% White, 17.4% Hispanic, 13.7% Black, 2.5% Asian, 0.5% Native American
Unemployment: 11.8%
Median Household Income: $47,117
High School Graduation Rate: 85.8%
College Graduation Rate: 24.1%

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Healthcare- Carlson believes that the Affordable Care Act is positive for Floridians and that repealing the act is just based on partisan opinion and would be a disaster for Florida. Spano believes that "Obamacare" causes premiums to skyrocket, causes lower care quality, and that he will vote to repeal and replace it.
Agriculture- Spano says he will make sure farmers get good deals on labor and trade. Carlson cites her experience as a food lawyer, how she already has fought to protect ranchers and farmers. She wants to keep the food supply safe and affordable. Specifically Carlson wants to get funding for pest and disease research. She wants to make sure farm products are accessible to foreign markets and that a safe food supply is protected.
Immigration- Both candidates believe the immigration system needs to be reformed so that illegal immigrants are kept out. However Carlson believes some undocumented immigrants need to be offered a path to citizenship, especially those who are law abiding and hardworking. She also believes Trump needs to stop separating children from parents and that it is unconscionable. Spano wants to secure American borders and at the same time encourage those with skills and work ethic to come to America.

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Works Cited

“2016 Legislative Scorecard Overview.” 2016 Legislative Scorecard, www.fhca.org/advocacy/2016_house_scorecard.

“2016 Report Card.” Fund Education Now, fundeducationnow.org/2016-report-card/.

“Florida District 15 Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=FL15&spec=N.

“Florida's 15th Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_15th_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

Google Search, Google, www.google.com/search?q=Campaign%2Bad%2BFor%2BKristen%2BCarlson&safe=strict&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS811US820&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiRxYvlmrbeAhWjoYMKHSwKBUkQ_AUIFSgD&biw=1366&bih=657#imgrc=bpMdjNM6vnMfVM:

Google Search, Google, www.google.com/search?safe=strict&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS811US820&biw=1366&bih=608&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=WpbcW53GMYnZjwTj7rPoBg&q=Ross%2BSpano%2Bfor%2BCongressCampaign%2Bad&oq=Ross%2BSpano%2Bfor%2BCongressCampaign%2Bad&gs_l=img.3...49699.53119..53361...0.0..0.80.817.12......1....1..gws-wiz-img.HYfFhuRAlbk#imgrc=cksTPJLtiNd6TM:

Https://Projects.fivethirtyeight.com/Polls/20181022_FL15.Pdf.

March, William. “Outside Money Pushes Carlson Past Spano in U.S. House 15.” Tampa Bay Times, www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/31/outside-money-pushes-carlson-past-spano-in-u-s-house-15/.

“Midterm Election Poll: Florida's 15th District, Spano vs. Carlson.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 16 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-fl15-3.html.

NateSilver538. “Florida 15th - 2018 House Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/florida/15/.

“Ross Spano.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Ross_Spano.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #24445, www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=db034a88-6665-4a19-acde-057b71069b31.

“Voter Registration in Florida.” DMV.ORG, www.dmv.org/fl-florida/voter-registration.php.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/campaign-finance/182273/kristen-carlson#.W9yXVUtKjIU.

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I predict that the republican candidate Ross Spano will win the election over the democratic Kristen Carlson for the Florida 15th District Congressional seat because of the district's past voting record as well as the demographics in the district.
In the past elections for this specific seat in the district, the republican candidate has won with a strong majority. Each election going back to 2000 before the district was even realigned, the republican candidate gathered about sixty percent of the votes to win. This leads me to believe that the republican candidate Ross Spano will win given the trend. Another reason is the demographics in the district. It is a common trend that whites vote for republican candidates in elections. The Florida 15th district's population is 77.2 percent white. With this strong majority of whites in the population, it explains why republican candidates are continually elected, and will likely lead to Ross Spano being elected on November 6th.
Some may argue that Kristen Carlson may win because she has received almost twice the amount of funding and support than Ross Spano. Carlson has raised about 1.3 million dollars to Spano's 660,00 dollars. It can be argued that Carlson would win the election based on this evidence. There is a known trend that in elections, candidates receiving more donations and money often end up winning the elections they are running in.
However, the amount of money Carlson is receiving does not indicate  that she is going to receive more votes. Carlson's donations and money are actually coming from sources that are outside the state of Florida. She has received large amounts of money from other states and the democratic party, where Spano has received a lot of support from within the state of Florida. I believe that money cannot be a good indicator or a valid argument to determine who will win the election because of the amount of money Carlson is acquiring from outside the state of Florida.

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(Incumbent) Ted Cruz (R)
Beto O'Rourke (D)

Ted Cruz is an incumbent, junior senator that was previously an attorney. He was previously a Texas Solicitor General until in 2013 he became a senator. Ted Cruz is a traditional conservative with all matters and is a devout Christian.

Beto O'Rourke is a U.S. Representative for the Texas 16th Congressional district. Mr. O'Rourke is also a businessman from El Paso. Beto O'Rourke is a liberal, democrat.

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In the 2016 Presidential election, Texas had 59.4% of the registered voters vote. Trump decisively beat Clinton in Texas by a margin of slightly less than 10% ,or
52.2% compared to 43.2%.

In the 2012 Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz beat the democratic opponent, Paul Sanders, by a margin of slightly less than 20% ,or 56.5% to 40.6%.

In Texas the voting requirements are:
-U.S. Citizen
-Resident of Texas
-at least 18 years of age
- must register 30 days before the election
- Photo ID

Voting is allowed by mail, but only under certain circumstances; Early voting is allowed for all registered voters.

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The University of Texas at Tyler, predicts that Ted Cruz will win by a margin of 3.6%. They surveyed 1033 voters from October 15 to October 28, and they have a margin of error os 3.26%.

A poll at Emerson University shows that Ted Cruz will win by a margin of 3% with a margin of error of 3.7%

Another poll surveyed by Quinnipiac University shows that Cruz up by 5%. The poll surveyed 1078 people from October 22 to October 28

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Money Raised: $40,118,701

Top Contributors:

Woodforest Financial Group  $107,951
Senate Conservatives Fund  $95,761
NorPAC  $66,050
Sullivan & Cromwell  $61,450
Lockheed Martin  $59,033

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Beto O`Rourke does not take PAC money, however, most of his money has come from out of state contributions.

Money Raised: $69,099,703

Top Contributors:
University of Texas   $365,312
Alphabet Inc  $227,024
J Street $139,734
University of California  $131,404
AT&T Inc $117,104

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Texas had a population of 25.26 million people in 2010, the year of the census.

White 70.4%
African American 11.8%
Asian American 3.8%
Female: 50.4%
Male: 49.6%
Unemployment Rate: 4.0%
Median Household Income: $67,025
High School Graduation Rate: 89.1%
College Graduation Rate: 59.1%

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Energy
Beto O'Rourke believes strongly in climate change, so Beto O`Rourke believes in higher taxes on oil to discriminate the usage of oil. He believes in stronger regulation on the energy sector through the work of the EPA. Ted Cruz is a traditional conservative who does not believe in climate change, so he is opposed to stronger regulation to the energy sector.
Immigration
Beto O`Rourke does not believe in open borders but rather in stronger control on the ports of entry. Mr. O`Rourke believes in abolishing ICE and is in favor of sanctuary  cities. Along with this, he believes in granting citizenship to illegal immigrants. Mr. Cruz sides with Trump on building a wall. He believes that the only immigration into this country should be legally; he wants to add protection to the border and is a supporter of ICE.
Guns
Mr.O`Rourke believes in universal background checks. He wants to ban Assault- Rifles. Beto has gotten a rating an "F" rating from the NRA compared to Ted Cruz`s "A+". Ted Cruz wants no background checks and is a strong supporter of the Second Amendment, not wanting to limit guns.

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Works Cited
“Splash Page.” Ted Cruz for Senate, www.tedcruz.org/.
“Beto for Texas.” Beto for Senate, betofortexas.com/.
Caralle, Katelyn. “Beto O'Rourke Surges to within Margin of Error against Cruz in New Texas Poll.” Washington Examiner, 2 Nov. 2018, www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/beto-orourke-inches-closer-to-cruz-in-new-texas-poll.
“Loading...” College Completion, collegecompletion.chronicle.com/state/#state=tx§or=public_four.
Google Search, Google, www.google.com/search?q=demographics%2Babout%2Btexas&oq=demographics%2Babout%2Btexas&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.3604j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8.

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In the 2018 Texas Senate election between Ted Cruz and Beto O`Rourke. I predict Ted Cruz to win by a narrow margin. Texas sided with the Republican party in the election with a very decisive win for Trump, 53%, over Clinton ,43%, which I believe the voters for Trump will side with Ted Cruz and the Clinton Supporters will take Beto. The last time Texas had a a democratic senator was 1988 , and Texas is a red state. Another reason why I expect Ted Cruz to be the victor is that the state is primarily white, about 70%,with a higher than average median income, around $67,000, which both indicators prove to side with the republican party. On the other hand, Beto has more raised money by about 50%, but most of this money is coming out of state, proving a lack of support from inside Texas unlike Ted Cruz. Money is typically an indicator, but in this sense, it is not a deciding factor because incumbents do not usually need as much money because of already known name recognition. While it is not a factoring factor, it is a correlation and correlations are not always true.