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Afghans migrating away from their homes  

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Migration of out Afghanistan is an example of forced migration because they are moving for their safety.

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After over 40 years of conflict, natural disasters, chronic poverty, food insecurity, COVID-19 pandemic and most recently a changeover in government authorities in Afghanistan, millions of Afghans have been forced to migrate. People are moving to find safety and security away from the Taliban. Some are moving out of the country as refugees and trying to find new homes. Others have been internally displaced within the country, with very few resources.

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Transcript

Shelly Culbertson, Senior Policy Researcher

Afghanistan has a multigenerational refugee problem, dating from 1979 and then continuing with multiple wars and conflicts since. There are three million refugees from Afghanistan living in Pakistan and Iran, three or four million people who are displaced in Afghanistan inside their own country, and then we all saw the tens of thousands of desperate people at the airport seeking to get asylum in the United States or Europe.

These new circumstances in Afghanistan mean that the three million refugees from Afghanistan who are already in Pakistan and Iran are likely not going home any time soon. Most of them have been there for decades. And after the takeover of the Taliban, they're even more unlikely to return.

Our recent RAND study found that ten years after the end of a conflict, only thirty percent of refugees have returned. In the host countries, the refugees live in very difficult circumstances. The host countries are under strain and there's a lot of resentment of the refugees' presence. There are limits on their ability to work and access full public services such as education and health care. And no amount of aid to refugees can support them indefinitely. And the best solution would be to improve their ability to earn a livelihood.

RAND's work with Syrian refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon also recommended improving their ability to work. Allowing refugees to work creates a win-win solution, both for the refugees and for their host countries. For the three or four million people who are internally displaced inside Afghanistan, a lot of humanitarian aid has been cut off because of the rise of the Taliban. If the UN, United States and European countries want to help, one way is to find ways to enable humanitarian aid to flow while not having it diverted through the Taliban. In addition, they could use whatever available leverage they have with the Taliban to honor its commitments to innocent civilians.

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Report

There are 30 million refugees around the globe. These people are living in limbo without full citizenship rights. And their host countries are experiencing ever-greater political and economic strains. The need to find both durable and interim solutions is critical.

Louay Constant, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson, et al.

Commentary

The more than 100,000 civilians recently evacuated from Afghanistan are a small fraction of those who have lost their homes and livelihoods due to war. To avoid worsening the existing humanitarian crisis, the global community should take swift action, including close coordination with regional and national players.

Louay Constant, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson

Commentary

The United States' war in Afghanistan may be over, but the debate over the legacy of America's longest war has just begun. The U.S. defeat raises many questions. For the future of American defense strategy, one big question perhaps stands out above all: Does the United States still have the grit necessary to fight and win long wars?
Raphael S. Cohen

Research Brief

Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan have generously received the majority of Syrian refugees. Many are working, but their sheer numbers have strained local labor markets, public services, and social harmony. Which policies might help create new economic opportunities for both the refugees and host-nation workers?

Krishna B. Kumar @kbkumar_, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson, et al.

Researcher Spotlight

Associate Director, Disaster Management & Resilience Program, RAND Homeland Security Research Division

Shelly Culbertson is the associate director of the Disaster Management & Resilience Program (DMR), part of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division. She is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Culbertson focuses on disaster recovery and post-conflict recovery, forced...

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Afghanistan's Refugee Crisis: Forty Years in the Making

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RAND senior policy researcher Shelly Culbertson discusses the history and current state of Afghanistan's refugee crisis. She describes what life is like for refugees who are internally displaced, as well as those living in Pakistan and Iran, and suggests ways in which the United States and other countries could help to improve refugees' lives.

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1. Every migration flow generates a return/counter migration

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1. Every migration flow generates a return/counter migration

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This does not relate to what is happening in Afghanistan. Many of the Afghans that left decades ago to find safety in another country have not returned, and have tried to start over in that country. Most of the people leaving are not returning.

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2. The majority of migrants move a short distance:

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2. The majority of migrants move a short distance:

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This does not relate to the migration out of Afghanistan because most refugees are moving out of the country in order to find safety. Many have gone to Pakistan and Iran in order to find more secure living.

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3. Migrants who move longer distances tend to choose big city destinations:

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3. Migrants who move longer distances tend to choose big city destinations:

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This relates to some of the migrants from Afghanistan. Most Afghans are traveling to countries like Pakistan, Iran, Germany, Turkey, and France. These Afghans are looking for safety and end up as refugees in cities.

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4. City residents are less migratory than people living in rural areas:

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4. City residents are less migratory than people living in rural areas:

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This does not relate to the Afghanistan migration because people are going to want to get out of cities because they are larger targets for terrorists. People are going to want to move to safer places.

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5. Families are less likely to make international moves than young adults:

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5. Families are less likely to make international moves than young adults:

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This does not apply to the immigration out of Afghanistan because people are going to try to find safety for themselves and their children, so most are moving out of Afghanistan.

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With migrations from Afghanistan, there is a lot of international migrations. People move across different country boarders, for a number of reasons.

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There is also internal migration. People may move around Afghanistan in order to find safer areas for periods of time, but most are trying to escape across boarders.

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There are many push factors that may cause people to migrate. These include warfare, food insecurity, change in government, and more. These factors have caused many people to migrate out of Afghanistan.

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Pull factors such a safety and security, food, and more are all factors that draw refugees to different countries.

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When the Taliban overtook Afghanistan there was an immigration wave. Meaning, many countries were swarmed with refugees trying to escape their country.