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Have you always wanted a home to call your own?!

Do you dream of signing the last mortgage bill with a smile?!

Can you imagine the feeling of raising a family on grass that you protect?!

Well think again because Ontario's average home costs $873,207 so unless you are a pro at investing, GET BACK TO WORK!

Have some hope though since housing prices are going down relative to 2023 👍

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Housing Market Effecting Buyer's Mental Health.

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Housing Market Effecting Buyer's Mental Health.

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Since around 90,000 immigrants have come to Toronto every year since 2019, the housing market demand is inevitably increasing. I feel for these people, as well as the others looking to buy because it is humbling to have your expectations smashed. People who own homes with family members looking to buy, for example, a condo and move out may have confusing feelings towards the immigrants looking for a better life. It is depressing for families to have to rent the basement of a family they do not know. It's sad to see that even though the Canadian government is investing millions in mortgage bonds to help interest rates, the housing market still struggles.

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Jon Flynn Broker of Record, Flynn Real Estate Inc.

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The Market is STILL CRAP! 2024 Canadian Real Estate Market

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As new housing development continues, used homes for sale become a risk to people wanting to comfortably afford. With the increase in wages for labour, cost of materials, and cost of land when building a new home, the expectation to sell for profit increases which increases the prices of the housing market. If people cannot afford the pre-owned houses, new home builders cannot sell for what it costs to make a new home causing them to make fewer, cheaply made houses. Unfortunately, this will cause the housing market to rise once again as the supply will go down and demand up.

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Toronto Pre-Construction Condo Buyers Forced to Sell at $150,000 LOSS

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If you purchased a home for $800000 and put down the minimum required /5%=$40000, that leaves you with a 760000 dollar mortgage. Now if you bought at the height of the market eg: you purchased for $800000 and the now the market declined by 18%, your house is now worth 656000 dollars. You now have lost 144000 dollars. Now you owe the bank $104000 and have to pay that if you want to keep your house. Obviously, the market may change and you may not have to pay but it causes stress and panic amongst home owners.

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This article is the second in Global News' Spring Housing Buzz series, where we will investigate a number of different areas related to the spring real estate market in Ontario. You can read Part 1 here.
First-time homebuyers Onairy and Joseph Baiya love their three-bedroom townhouse in Whitby, Ont., since it has what they need at a six-figure price range they could afford.

Despite Joseph adding a daily commute to Toronto for work, he got the basement he wanted, while Onairy got the extra space to entertain friends and prepare for a bigger family.

The accountant and the office supervisor, who've been married three years now, had been renting a condo in Etobicoke until last year when, like many in Ontario, they decided paying rent was a waste of money.

"It was too much. We were paying for that small one-bedroom, like, $2,500 per month," said Onairy, who's originally from the Dominican Republic and arrived in Canada a few years ago via Orlando, Fla.

"So we thought, I think it's the right time to get into buying a house, putting that money towards our mortgage."

Expectations had to be lowered quickly as getting the four-bedroom detached home close to Toronto that they dreamed of was simply not a reality cost-wise.

"We were expecting to get a detached somewhere closer to the city," Onairy recalled.

"Like, three or four bedrooms and big backyard. That's what we thought."

The pair, who had some experience with the U.S. real estate market, assumed it wouldn't be much more expensive when they moved to Canada, having a "bias" that prices would be similar considering how big and spacious the country is.

"What we were seeing was not something that was encouraging, and it was actually very frustrating and humbling," Joseph said.

"But then ... we found the right Realtor, we found the right location, and then the timing was just perfect because the pricing was coming down."

In the early stages of their search, the couple say one Whitby home that had "everything" they needed was snatched away in the last half-hour of bidding when an offer around 30 per cent higher was registered.

"So it definitely was very discouraging," Onairy said.

"I think maybe we stopped looking for houses for like two weeks because we felt like we were mourning."

The pair would eventually settle in a townhouse, but it put them almost 70 kilometres from where they once were in Etobicoke, sacrificing location to afford a home in the $750,000 price range.

It's the reality many other first-timers will have to endure as the average detached or semi-detached home in the Greater Toronto Area soared past the $1 million mark years ago.

Recent data seems to be pointing to a spring market starting early in 2024, with the Ontario Real Estate Association's January sales activity report disclosing "sizable gains" in sales during the opening month, up 21.4 per cent compared with January 2023.

That somewhat bucks "slow activity and softer price" predictions from RBC's recent annual market outlook, which submits that the Bank of Canada's (BoC) current benchmark interest rate will keep the housing market somewhat muted through the first half of the year.

Whether the spring market has arrived or not, several Ontario Realtors and mortgage brokers agree that before a buyer knocks on their door, they want to see a solid financial picture.

These days, the first and biggest hurdle for a typical first-timer is coming up with the down payment, a task that's a lot tougher these days than it was eight years ago before the federal government introduced the mortgage stress test.

Under the rules, first-timers have to come up with at least five per cent for any home costing under $500,000.

As the price increases, a buyer is looking at an additional 10 per cent in costs for a home between $500,000 and $1 million and 20 per cent for each buck after $1 million.

Ratesdotca broker Victor Tran says even with a forecast of lower interest rates from the BoC this year compared with last, it's still going to be challenging for first-timers with tough qualifying rules from lenders and continuing stress tests.

"Most people, especially first-time homebuyers in their 20s, late 20s or even 30s, they don't have that money saved up," Tran said.

"If they do, that's fantastic, they can get into a home. But because of the high-interest-rate environment, the payments are going to be very high."

For most of his 20 years in the business, Ajax Realtor Doug Gordon says he's never seen the financial end of a home purchase as turbulent as it has become in the last few years, putting affordability for some clients into question.

Skyrocketing home prices and a generally low supply of dwellings across Ontario have forced some first-timers to rely on family members for financial gifts or loans to get their start.

"They're pulling equity out, in some cases, from their own properties to help their kids be able to afford things," Gordon said.

"We're also seeing a massive transfer of wealth from the boomer generation that's going to be passing over the next 10 to 15 years as well. So that'll carve away, I think, at some affordability issues."

A Canada-wide poll last year suggested coming up with a down payment caused significant pressure for most first-time buyers, with some 70 per cent of Ontarians "anxious" about missing out and fearing they might not have it.

Around 35 per cent of first-time homebuyers nationwide said they received some sort of financial assistance in the form of a lump sum payment from parents or relatives, with almost half of those saying it was gifted to them.

"That first transaction is the most difficult, and in today's environment, first-time buyers are faced with large price tags, high carrying costs and the added challenge of qualifying for lending at higher rates due to the stress test," Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, said about the Environics study.

Those financial barriers are pushing up the average age of Canadians entering the housing market, with the largest share of first-timers, 43 per cent, aged 35 or older, according to the 2023 study. Just two years prior in 2021, the largest share of first-time homebuyers were aged 30 to 34, at 38 per cent.

James Laird, co-CEO of Ratehub.ca, says a "lot of people" sat on the sidelines last year amid high interest rates but he suspects things will look a "little bit better" with the prospect of rates coming down.

However, with a lack of supply in many markets, competition for more affordable homes may be high.

"Those more entry-level homes that a first-time homebuyer might be able to get into within their budget should expect a bunch of other people in that exact same boat and a lot of competition for that house," Laird said.

A Royal LePage report based on Leger polling released last week suggests 51 per cent of Canadians who put home-buying plans on hold over the last two years will return to the market when the BoC reduces the key lending rate.

Since the key lending rate was raised in March of 2022, more than half (56 per cent) of the 27 per cent of the country's adult population active in the market reportedly were "forced to postpone" their property search as a result of affordability issues.

With the rate of inflation moving to 2.9 per cent in January and edging closer to a desired two per cent federal target, many Realtors expect the BoC to make a cut in the lending rate at some point this year.

Hamilton Realtor Phil Golfi is characterizing the coming spring market as "transitional" due to the everpresent speculation that rate will decrease, which will affect not only home sales but also a staggering number of mortgage renewals coming up in the next year.

Data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimates that some 2.2 million COVID-19-era mortgages, signed with low-interest rates, will come due over the next two years. The number represents almost half of outstanding mortgages in the country.

"There's a ton of speculation out there that our market's going to take off again, and housing prices are going to rise rapidly again, which is very scary if you're a first-time homebuyer that hasn't bought anything and that's waiting on the sidelines," Golfi said.

Those seeking a home in Ontario will face some of the highest home prices in Canada, particularly if looking in areas around Toronto.

OREA says the average price of resale residential homes across the province in January was $821,624, up about 2.9 per cent from the same month last year.

However, in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), you're looking at over $1 million for a detached or semi-detached home, about $900,000 for a townhome and $700,000 for the average condo.

Zoocasa.com public relations director Patti Cosgarea says the good news is home prices didn't "grow quickly" in January due to lower inflation, the steady Bank of Canada interest rate and affordability still keeping some buyers on the sidelines.

Markets with average prices under the $1 million mark include Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo and some parts of the Niagara Region, while London and St. Thomas are averaging around the $600,000 range.

"In terms of the average price ... things are still pretty slow and steady month over month," Cosgarea said.

"But it really depends on what's going to happen with the Bank of Canada. I think that if rates do eventually come down, even as early as the spring, we're going to see prices increase pretty quickly."
We would love to hear your trials, tribulations, thoughts and victories with regards to the real estate market. Please contact us below.

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Search for home in Ontario real estate market 'humbling' for first-time buyers | Globalnews.ca

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An Ontario couple say the search for their first home was a frustrating experience. They're not alone as people consider their options in today's real estate market.

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A real estate crash followed by a time of moderate price appreciation would be very healthy for the Canadian housing market. Housing should be seen as a place to live, not an investment that appreciates faster than inflation. It will cause some pain in the short term but will make Canada more affordable for normal people in the long term. Canada is doing a great thing by inviting immigrants here but a decrease in immigration, until we have more housing built, would be beneficial for our housing market but not for the immigrants, obviously.

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The pace of home sales in Ontario in 2023 hit lows not seen the turn of the century, and with little evidence that mortgage rates will drop significantly any time soon, forecasts are predicting the sluggishness to continue into early 2024.

While prices have dropped somewhat from their pandemic-driven highs, the combination of high-interest rates and buyers waiting for prices to tumble further has created a slow sales market throughout much of the province, according to a range of industry information.

The number of home sales in the Greater Toronto Area in 2023 is on track to be lower than in any year since 2001, when the region's population was roughly 25 per cent smaller than it is today.

The latest figures available show the number of homes sold across Ontario last year to be down nearly 13 per cent from the previous year, described by the Canadian Real Estate Association as a substantial decline.

CBC News interviewed three experts on the real estate market to find out what they expect to happen in 2024.

Expect 'continued stagnation' in sales

There's general consensus among those experts that sales volumes will remain sluggish in the first part of 2024, until or unless mortgage rates come down significantly, or sellers start accepting lower bids.

"The general trend we're probably going to see is one of continued stagnation," said Ron Butler, a broker with Butler Mortgage.

He doubts that mortgage rates will drop quickly enough or low enough to jolt reluctant buyers off the sidelines in the early part of 2024.

John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty Inc., adds that sellers have yet to bring down their asking prices deeply enough to offset the increased borrowing costs that buyers face.

"It's the combination of these high prices and high interest rates that is keeping a lot of buyers out of the market right now," Pasalis said.

WATCH | What to watch for in 2024 and why there's still uncertainty ahead:

TD economist Rishi Sondhi predicts sales volumes to remain relatively low in the coming year, although better than what the numbers were in 2023.

"We think that the bottom has probably been reached," Sondhi said. "Sales levels were just so darn low in Ontario [in 2023]. It's hard to go lower from there."

Where will prices head?

There's not a lot of consensus on what will happen with prices, in part because of supply and demand factors that are expected to have conflicting effects.

For instance, while decade-high mortgage rates are suppressing demand, rapid population growth is pushing it upward and new construction isn't keeping pace.

Real estate firm Royal LePage is forecasting a six per cent rise in the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area by the end of 2024, and a 4.5 per cent rise in Ottawa.

By contrast, real estate firm ReMax is forecasting an average three per cent drop in prices in the GTA for 2024 and a two per cent increase in Ottawa.

Butler says "buyer sentiment" will have a significant impact on prices in 2024.

"If you feel that these prices are really too high and that they will come down, no matter how motivated you are to buy a home, you will have a tendency to wait and see," he said. "It'll turn around eventually, but right now I think that buyer sentiment is entrenched."

New home construction forecast to slow

Premier Doug Ford's government is now entering the third year of its 10-year timeframe for the promised construction of 1.5 million new homes in Ontario, and has yet to achieve the annual pace needed to achieve that target.

Final figures for 2023 aren't in yet but, as of November, the pace of new construction was slower than the 96,000 housing starts in the previous year.

Forecasts are now predicting the pace will slow even further this year. That's because developers are struggling to finance projects because of high interest rates, inflation has pushed up the price of building materials and a labour crunch continues to hamper the construction industry.

"We're expecting housing starts to fall in 2024," said Sondhi. The evidence is based on a drop in sales in the pre-construction market over the past two years after mortgage rates began to climb.

Sondhi is not forecasting a collapse in new home construction, partly because of expected growth in purpose-built rental housing, fuelled by the provincial and federal governments exempting those projects from HST.

Meanwhile, figures show that around 30 of Ontario's largest municipalities will fail to qualify for a share of the government's $1.2 billion Building Faster Fund in 2024 because their housing start numbers in 2023 fell short of the mark.

Uncertainty for the condo sector

Condominiums are the segment of Ontario's housing market that looks to be in the roughest shape in 2024, in part because a large proportion are owned by investors.

"As their mortgages come up for renewal, it's going to be harder to afford those condos," said Pasalis.

"Over the next 12 to 18 months, we'll probably see more investors unloading properties just because they can't afford to have so much debt at today's interest rates," he said.

Butler adds he expects to see many investors trying to sell off small condos in urban centres because their plans to turn them into short-term rentals fell through.

As of the end of November, the Toronto Region Real Estate Board had reported 23,128 condo sales in 2023 - a 44 per cent decline from the same period in 2021.

Sales of new condos in the GTA appear to have fallen even more sharply, dropping by 47 per cent in a year, according to a November report from research firm Urbanation.

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What's in store for the housing market in Ontario in 2024 | CBC News

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The pace of home sales in Ontario in 2023 dropped to lows not seen this century, and with little evidence that mortgage rates will drop significantly any time soon, forecasts are predicting the sluggishness to continue into early 2024.

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I am glad to see in this picture (have to click the link) that inflation of housing prices is predicted to go down. I hope this is true to help out everyone looking to buy. Homelessness is increasing in a lot of places simply because people cannot afford to pay for their homes.

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Rates need to stay high so prices can come down to realistic levels again. The low rates fueled the bubble that needs to pop. Crappy tiny condos should not be selling for what a detached house was less than 10 years ago! Regardless of the rates, everyone who is buying now is getting ripped off. Houses should match local incomes, not something that should be speculated on to the point where everyone is now going homeless in Canada, but that is just a dream. In reality, we have little control over what we pay.

I liked this video because there is some optimism and hope for the future when it has looked so bleak before.

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DISTRESS DOOM: 7 Crazy Predictions for Toronto Real Estate in 2024

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I found a lot of these stats interesting. Particularly the affordability of homes in 2006. After doing a lot of research, and looking at people's predictions, a lot of people believe the housing market will rapidly increase like it did in 2006. I do not believe this will happen since households earn around %40 more income with the rise in wages and again, immigration to Canada will force the government to make cheaper housing.

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Interest rates will continue to dictate the outcome of Canada's housing market in 2024 with the first and second halves showing different pictures. We expect slow activity and softer prices to persist in the early part of the year as the Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at a two-decade high and home ownership stays out of reach for many potential buyers. But, a pivot toward rate cuts mid-year will get the wheels turning faster over the second half or perhaps even sooner. There will be a lot of pent-up demand to satisfy in the market once confidence returns, which could heat things up in a hurry. However, poor affordability conditions will restrain the recovery and make it a gradual liftoff. The larger window of opportunity for buyers is likely to open only after interest rates have dropped materially-something we foresee in the latter stages of 2024 or into 2025. That's especially the case for first-time buyers who may be more financially constrained.

Upside for supply

Improving sales prospects are bound to attract more sellers. Mortgage renewal payment shocks could also prompt more owners to put properties on the market. An influx of sellers would keep supply-demand conditions in balance, and temper any upward pressure on demand. For-sale inventories have been rebuilding over the past couple of years after reaching historical lows earlier in the pandemic.

Market to be a little busier in 2024

We project home resales in Canada to rebound 9.2% year-over-year to 484,400 units in 2024-partially reversing massive declines of 25.1% in 2022 and 11.1% in 2023. That number of transactions would still fall short of the level reached before the pandemic in 2019 (490,900 units). We expect the recovery to strengthen in 2025 to 562,100 units-a gain of 16%.

More ground to recover in B.C. and Ontario

The housing market varies considerably across the country and this is unlikely to change in the year ahead. Crushing home ownership costs have significantly depressed home resales in British Columbia and Ontario. There isn't much more vigour in Quebec. But other provincial markets have been broadly resilient. Activity remains near or above pre-pandemic levels in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and most of Atlantic Canada.

Rebound already taking shape in Alberta and Saskatchewan

We expect lower interest rates in the second half of 2024 to lift activity from coast to coast. A market uptrend is in fact already taking shape in Alberta and Saskatchewan-setting both up for above-average resales growth this year of 13.5% and 9.4%, respectively.

Broader strengthening in second half

Other provinces are likely to turn a corner by the summer. We forecast residential transactions to rebound modestly this year in B.C. (6.4%) and Ontario (7.7%). It will be even more robust east of Ontario with growth rates as high as 15.8% in Prince Edward Island, 15.5% in Nova Scotia and 10.2% in Quebec. We think it will take bigger rate cuts or deeper price drops to make a meaningful difference for buyers in expensive markets.

No quick turnaround for prices

Our outlook for prices calls for the national RPS Home Price Index (HPI) to ease further by 1.0% this year, following a 2.6% decline in 2023. We see the market turnaround having a greater impact in 2025 when the HPI is forecast to rise 3.1%. In this scenario, the national index would remain below its 2022 peak throughout the two-year projection horizon.

Provinces at different points of price cycle

Home prices across the provinces will run the gamut this year. We project gains in Alberta (2.2%), New Brunswick (0.7%), Nova Scotia (0.2%) and Saskatchewan (0.1%). But, there will be losses in Ontario (-2.0%), Manitoba (-1.8%), Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.6%), B.C. (-0.3%) and Quebec (-0.2%). No change is expected for P.E.I.

Next year looks more uniform with moderate price advances projected in every province.

Booming population vs. poor affordability

Major forces are working in opposite directions in the housing market. On one side, booming population growth sustains strong underlying demand for homes (including rentals). On the other end, high housing costs restrict many Canadians' path to homeownership. In 2024, that path is likely to widen once interest rates fall meaningfully. The severe loss of affordability-arising from soaring prices earlier in the pandemic and the run-up in interest rates since March 2022-has been the dominant force in the past two years plunging the market into a deep correction and causing a significant buildup in pent-up demand.

We believe the federal government's recent decision to cap the issuance of study permits to international students for two years will have a marginal impact on overall homebuyer demand in Canada. But pressure on local rental markets near post-secondary institutions in Ontario and B.C. could ease as a result.

Mortgage renewal payment shock

Steep payment increases that await fixed-rate mortgage holders at term renewal will hit many Canadians hard. These increases could be too much for some owners who may have to sell. But we see the risk of a wave of distressed sellers as contained. Most mortgage holders have been stringently stress-tested against a spike in rate-qualifying at a rate at least 2 percentage points above the rate they received-at origination. Indeed, this prudent factor has significantly contributed to maintaining mortgage delinquencies at a historical low in this country to date. In any case, for-sale inventories have plenty of room to rise before they reach problematic levels.

Homebuilding key to longer-term balance

While we don't expect the current booming rate of population growth to be sustained, demographic factors are likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future in Canada. They could easily heat up the housing market to an uncomfortable degree again once the cyclical downturn has run its course. Whether it happens will come down to the supply response. We estimate Canada will need to grow its housing stock by an average of 315,000 units every year between now and 2030 just to keep up with household formation. That's more than a third above the pace of housing completions in the past few years (which ranged between 220,000 and 240,000 units annually). Needless to say it's a tall order, especially considering the labour challenges the construction industry is facing.
Robert Hogue is an Assistant Chief Economist at RBC responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies. He joined RBC in 2008.
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Canada's housing market outlook: A tale of two halves in 2024 - RBC Thought Leadership

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Interest rates will continue to dictate the outcome of Canada's housing market in 2024. We expect slow activity and softening prices in the early part of the year as the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate high.

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I hope to see more people spread out throughout Canada even though Ontario and Quebec are in a bubble when it comes to climate change predictions, but not when it comes to affordable living. Definitely want to get away from the GTA but it sucks because that is where the jobs are. If you are okay with a lower standard of living, the GTA could still work.

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1. What did you learn about your topic that surprised you the most?

That the government is trying to help us afford homes but they just are not doing a good job at it.

2. Provide a real-life example of how this topic is relevant or interesting for you.

As a young adult still living with my parents, I would like to move out into my own space eventually so having knowledge of the housing market is imperative to me.

3. If you could pass on your knowledge to a family member or friend, what do you think is the most important thing to pass on?

It may be worth it to downsize when the market is better.