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https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1mC0F8k0GZPZEXMHCeNFyeDaY0KiyrAfnpPolNYNYYe4/edit#slide=id.gf54e8bd2f4_0_126

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https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/10bbQGCdFNMq7HfEsHclRD6Ux9MoSwvgAMqO9A58868o/edit?usp=sharing

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(By the time this article is published, Hurricane Ida will have made landfall and the aftermath will be already under assessment. One hopes, as always, that the damage is minimal in terms of lives and property, but the same nature which we so readily associate with beauty and balance has a brutal, indiscriminate side. My thoughts go out to the people in Ida's path.)

Of the many industries which have been strained to the limit of their capacity over the last eighteen months, few have struggled as mightily, and "quietly," as the resins and plastics sector. In part, the low-profile nature of their adversity has mostly to do with the obscure nature of what is otherwise a ubiquitous business.

Demand gone skyward

The Covid pandemic struck producers of commodity polymers (relatively weak, cheap to manufacture, disposable plastics) hard from the very beginning. Among the first products to see a huge upsurge in demand were rubber gloves, face masks, and the plastic material used in packaging those and numerous other medical supplies.

There is an almost endless list of medical applications for plastics. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) can be found in approximately 40% of all disposable medical devices, including flexible fluid bags, tubing, oxygen, masks, surgical gloves, etc. Polycarbonate (PC) is the material of choice for medical devices and equipment, replacing glass applications in items such as blood oxygenators, hemodialyzers, intravenous connectors, and high pressure syringes, in addition to safety glasses and face shields. Given its clarity and ease of sterilization, polystyrene (PS) is used for a wide range of applications, including tissue culture trays, test tubes, petri dishes, diagnostic components, and housings for tests.

In May 2020, the launch of the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed added mightily to that strain. By jump-starting a massive, parallel drug development program calling for hundreds of millions of vaccine doses, the need for plastic liners and wrapping were understandably immense. (The need for masks and gear during the associated clinical trials was similarly demanding.)

But none of that includes the incredible demand driven by millions upon millions of people confined to their homes worldwide and the commensurate explosion in retail consumption. Amazon, Walmart, and other retailers filled record numbers of orders, each of which required adhesive tape, bubble wrap, and clear packaging seal.
US Producer Price Index, Plastic Resins and Materials (2011 - present)
The industry shifted into overdrive to meet the exploding demand. In late March, workers at polypropylene plants in West Virginia and Pennsylvania volunteered to live at their workplace for 28 days in order to continue working and not violate lockdown and quarantine rules. Shortly thereafter the US Department of Homeland Security designated workers at chemical manufacturers as "essential," but not before the effects of some 60,000 being sent home under the original pandemic restrictions had severely reduced output.

From the perspective that the need for plastic-containing medical and healthcare equipment was critical, the cancellation of other orders-for automobiles, construction, and so on-was in a sense fortuitous.

The Producer Price Index of Plastic Resins and Materials (100 = 1982) began 2020 at roughly 215; by the end of the year, it was up roughly 7% to 230, although standard caveats about indices and averages apply. Producers of the raw materials of plastics, including monoethylene, polyethylene, polypropylene, and others struggled to stay abreast of rapidly accelerating consumption, but by the end of 2020 market forces were responding. An example of three end-of-2020 letters sent by plastic and resin producers to wholesalers and retailers warning of imminent price increases can be seen here.

Subsequent obstacles

Like every other shortage of late, the abrupt, colossal increase in demand was a fundamental but not singular factor in the rising prices and plummeting availability of plastic products. Early in 2021, the first of several subsequent impediments appeared.

The Texas power crisis, which took place between February 10th and 20th 2021, saw nearly 5 million homes and businesses lose power. Plastic production was impacted directly and with particular severity. The freeze

had [a] devastating impact on the plastics industry, shutting down major production facilities for polyethylene and polypropylene and decimating the power grid. The winter storm also halted production in the world's largest petrochemical complex, causing a sudden shortage in almost 100 essential chemicals and derivatives used in much of Texas' industry functions...the freeze alone cause an estimated 12% reduction in US polyethylene production, with Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Westlake Chemical Corp., and Dow Chemical Co...struggling to maintain Gulf Coast operations.

The effect can be seen below. The Houston PVC Suspension Polymers FAS Price tracks weekly dollar-per-metric tonne (USD/MT) prices of various chemical polymers manufactured in the Houston area. After being flat (productionless) for most of February 2021, the price rose 12% from the already-elevated price of $1,410 (the average 2020 price was $805 USD/MT) to $1,600 in the subsequent month. While these changes may seem small, it bears mentioning that much of plastic use is in retail goods, which tend to have exceptionally small margins (0.5% to 4.5% is typically estimated; Amazon's margins are thought to be about 2%).
Houston PVC Suspension Polymers FAS Price, USD/MT (weekly, 2020 - present)
At least, it might be ventured, resins and plastics had been shipped uninterrupted up until the ice storms swept through the southern United States. But that view, too, would shortly be undermined. One month after the southern deep freeze, seven thousand miles east of Houston, TX,

[a] skyscraper-sized container ship [became] wedged across Egypt's Suez Canal and blocked all traffic in the vital waterway...disrupt[ing] a global shipping system already strained by the coronavirus pandemic. The MV Ever Given, a Panama-flagged ship that carries cargo between Asia and Europe, ran aground...in the narrow, man-made canal dividing continental Africa from the Sinai Peninsula. Images showed the ship's bow...touching the eastern wall, while its stern looked lodged against the western wall - an extraordinary event that experts said they had never heard of happening before in the canal's 150-year history.

And so, as Harvard Business Review put it:

[T]he blocking of the Suez Canal by a container ship...[is contributing to] the supply disruption of another critical category of materials: plastics. Constraints on the supplies of their raw materials - especially polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and monoethylene (MEG) - are leading to factory shutdowns, sharp price increases, and production delays across a range of industries.

The delay of over 400 ships for almost one week accounts, in no small part, for the subsequent surge in the Houston price index, which rose an additional 12% from 1600 to 1808 between the ends of May and April 2021. Between the start of 2021 and the end of May, the PPI covering plastics and resins rose some 20%, with export prices of PVC tubing nearly doubling in the space of a year.

It was at this point that the plastic shortages became apparent more broadly. It was estimated that some 16,000 restaurants went out of business by July 2020 under the scourge of heavy-handed Covid mitigation policies; the actual number, by now, is assuredly higher. But the survivors have faced considerable new challenges, one of which is that

[p]astic cups and takeout containers are in short supply...[S]mall, non-chain restaurants are in an especially difficult position, competing for supplies with big franchises that have much greater buying power...Shortages have been ongoing, and some specific availability changes week to week, [one restaurant owner] said. When the supplies she needs are in stock, sometimes they're just too expensive, or the only distributor with the product is selling for double the regular price..."Some of our cups, lids, and other packaging have increased 30-50% in the past year, and if this continues to rise in price then we will have to bump prices to reflect the increase in costs," said [another].

Drinking straws, disposable utensils, and bags are among the other items rapidly disappearing from establishments around the globe. (An inexplicable amount of the Suez blockage coverage focused not upon plastic or any other commodity, but on the sudden paucity of garden gnomes.)

Somewhat more troubling have been the effects upon immunization efforts. The need for plastic bags for bioreactors, filters, pipettes, vials, and stoppers in an attempt to increase vaccination levels is hitting hard limits. Even if, as is the current objective, 11 billion vaccine doses can be produced by the end of 2021, the storage, packaging, and distribution requirements for them may not be met.
US Producer Price Index, Thermoplastic Plastic Resins and Materials (2016 - present)
In the coming weeks

Innovators have, as they tend to, responded. One result has been the introduction of an online marketplace for Covid-specific factor inputs. Elsewhere, polymer scientists and chemical engineers are searching for substitutes, including polysulfone. Production costs and the specific material properties of alternatives, of course, factor into their usability. (The time and costs associated with redesigning or building new plants additionally impact the feasibility of adopting new materials processes as well.)

At this point, attention is being directed back toward the Gulf Coast and Hurricane Ida. Directly in the path of last night's storm were a handful of oil and gas facilities and a number of significant petrochemical plants. If the storm causes considerable damage, already record level resin and plastic prices ( 320.60 on the associated PPI) may be topped, sending additional disruptive ripples through long global manufacturing processes. Life, limb, and property should be the first priority. Once those are safeguarded, a national discussion linking pandemic-related policies with a large and growing cascade of adverse outcomes should be a topic of some urgency.

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Hurricane Ida Threatens Global Plastic Markets

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(By the time this article is published, Hurricane Ida will have made landfall and the aftermath will be already under assessment. One hopes, as always, that the damage is minimal in terms of lives and property, but the same nature which we so readily associate with beauty and balance has a brutal, indiscriminate side.

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The prices of gas soar as the industry fails to meet demand

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The prices of gas soar as the industry fails to meet demand

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https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-gas-prices-soar-industry-struggles-meet-resurgent-demand-kemp-2021-09-09/

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LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Global gas prices have climbed to their highest level for seven years in real terms, as traders anticipate a shortage this winter, with consumption rebounding more quickly than production from the pandemic slump last year.

The global market is experiencing a classic but violent price cycle, with an unprecedented downturn in 2020, caused by the coronavirus epidemic and lockdowns, creating the conditions for a boom in 2021/22.

Last year, volume-weighted global prices fell to their lowest annual level since 1995, after adjusting for inflation, according to the World Bank. ("Commodities price data (the pink sheet)", World Bank, Sept. 2021).

The result was a sharp cutback in drilling and capital investment across the industry, leading to an unprecedented decline in worldwide output, which has remained depressed even as global economic activity has surged back.

In an inevitable reaction, monthly prices have now climbed to their highest in real terms since mid-2014, as traders anticipate there will not be enough production to meet all the demand from consumers by the end of the year.

By August, real prices had risen to the 68th percentile for all months since 1980, up from the 1st percentile in June 2020, with further sharp increases so far this month.

(Chartbook: https://tmsnrt.rs/3hf0qAU)

Rising prices are sending a strong signal to the industry of the need to boost production and are providing the cash flow to finance a major increase in output, which should support strong growth in 2022 and 2023.

PRICE SHOCK

Before the pandemic, both global production and consumption had increased at a compound rate of roughly 3% per year between 2009 to 2019 ("Statistical review of world energy", BP, 2021).

But the pandemic caused consumption to drop by 2.1% last year (the largest decline since the financial crisis in 2009), while production plunged even more sharply by 3.1% (the largest decline since at least the 1970s).

As a result of the aggressive supply response, the emerging oversupply of gas had largely been brought under control by the end of 2020.

A colder-than-normal winter, including the big freeze in Texas in February, then eliminated excess inventories, with stocks falling below the five-year average by March and April 2021.

The first indications that oversupply was being replaced by undersupply emerged at the start of 2021 when LNG prices spiked in Northeast Asia.

Price increases have subsequently become more persistent, spreading first to Europe, then back into the United States as the potential production shortfall has worsened.

In the next few months, with production largely fixed, high prices will have to choke back consumption through conservation, fuel switching (mostly to coal in power generation) and reduced use (mostly by industrial shutdowns).

But over the next year, higher prices will progressively incentivise more drilling and production, which should return the market to balance by the end of 2022, with prices retreating closer to long-term average levels.

In the same way gas production fell much more quickly than consumption in 2020 to whittle down excess inventories, it will have to grow faster than consumption in 2022 to rebuild stocks to a more comfortable level.

Rebalancing the market will therefore require a period of unusually high prices in the short term before they revert closer to long-term average levels late in the second half of 2022 and into 2023.
John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
Related columns:

- Record Chinese coal futures signal need to boost output (Reuters, Sept. 7)

- U.S. gas prices at multi-year highs will protect stocks (Reuters, July 22)

- Rising U.S. gas prices will encourage more coal burning (Reuters, May 14)

- Big freeze exposes Asia's underlying energy crisis (Reuters, Jan. 14)

Editing by Elaine Hardcastle

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Column: Global gas prices soar as industry struggles to meet resurgent demand

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LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Global gas prices have climbed to their highest level for seven years in real terms, as traders anticipate a shortage this winter, with consumption rebounding more quickly than production from the pandemic slump last year.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/09/business/ford-india-production/index.html

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Ford is ending production in India and taking a $2 billion hit in the process | CNN Business

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Ford is ending production in India and taking a hit of $2 billion as it retrenches from a market that has been almost impossible for American automakers to break into.

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https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-seeks-to-move-coal-to-areas-of-shortage-as-power-demand-rises/articleshow/85927863.cms

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Agencies
Singh said India's electricity demand is likely to continue increasing and also asked utilities to consider blending imported coal with local fuel to address shortages.

India's power minister on Saturday asked officials to consider diverting coal to power plants with extremely depleted stocks as shortages at some plants push several utilities to the verge of running out of fuel.

Power minister R.K. Singh asked officials to "streamline the stock and supply of coal", including a reduction in inventory targets to 10 days from 14 days, to allow coal to be moved to areas of greatest shortage as energy demand rises.

Singh said India's electricity demand is likely to continue increasing and also asked utilities to consider blending imported coal with local fuel to address shortages.

India's electricity generation rose by 16.1% in August compared with a year earlier, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, lifted by a 23.7% jump in coal-fired power generation that has led to shortages at utilities.

Data from the Central Electricity Authority showed more than a half of India's 135 coal-fired power plants had less than a week's supply of coal left, of which 50 had fewer than three days left. Six plants had run out of coal.

India is the world's second-largest importer of coal despite having the fourth-largest reserves, and coal burning generates nearly three-quarters of the country's electricity demand.

Coal shortages occur periodically in India, with the last such shortage occurring in 2017. Production of coal typically slows during India's annual monsoon in June through September.

India has also urged utilities to import coal to meet the shortage. The country mainly imports coal from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa.

(Catch all the Business News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.)

Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.

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India seeks to move coal to areas of shortage as power demand rises

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Power minister R.K. Singh asked officials to "streamline the stock and supply of coal", including a reduction in inventory targets to 10 days from 14 days, to allow coal to be moved to areas of greatest shortage as energy demand rises.

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Good example of non price determinant rightward shift

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Good example of non price determinant rightward shift

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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/concrete-and-cement-industries-brace-for-demand-boom-from-1-trillion-infrastructure-plan.html

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Concrete is the foundation of just about everything. It's used to construct buildings, highways, bridges, roads and more.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, concrete fell victim to the same phenomena impacting other essential materials and goods: snarled supply chains and labor shortages. And demand for concrete - and its essential ingredient, cement - appears to have only increased, after the Senate passed the $1 trillion infrastructure package to upgrade America's roads, bridges and tunnels.

"In the short-term, we continue to have the supply chain difficulties, particularly in certain markets, and so prices are rising," Anirban Basu, chief economist for the national construction industry trade association Associated Builders and Contractors, told CNBC. "So right now, apparently, supply is not rising up to meet demand."

The industry also faces labor shortages of skilled workers and truck drivers. And the recent housing boom means more demand for concrete and cement, putting more pressure on the industry to increase capacity.

On top of all of this, there's also a push to reduce the amount of carbon emissions that come from the industry. A study published by the National Academy of Sciences in 2019 estimates that global cement production accounts for 8% of global carbon emissions, making it the largest single industrial emitter of carbon dioxide.
Watch the video above to learn more about the cement-concrete supply chain and whether the U.S. industry can handle the coming demand from the new $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan.

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Concrete and cement industries brace for demand boom from $1 trillion infrastructure plan

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Concrete is the foundation of just about everything. It's used to construct buildings, highways, bridges, roads and more. During the Covid-19 pandemic, concrete fell victim to the same phenomena impacting other essential materials and goods: snarled supply chains and labor shortages.

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Uranium prices soar as investors scoop up nuclear power fuel

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Uranium prices soar as investors scoop up nuclear power fuel

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https://www.ft.com/content/624e3ac6-ffb0-49ee-959f-e59c27e96c80

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Sign up to myFT Daily Digest to be the first to know about Uranium news.

Nuclear power companies are facing competition for supplies of uranium from financial investors, who are betting on sharply higher prices and demand for the radioactive material used to fuel reactors.

The price of raw uranium, known as yellowcake, has risen to its highest level since 2014, driven by a newly launched investment trust run by Canadian asset manager Sprott.

Investors are betting that nuclear power will be a key part of the move away from fossil fuels and that a lack of new uranium mines will mean the price has to move higher.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has snapped up around 6m pounds of physical uranium, worth around $240m, since launching on July 19, helping to push uranium prices to over $40 per pound, up from $30 at the start of the year. Global mine supply is expected to be around 125m pounds in 2021.

Its aggressive buying will put pressure on utilities who need to secure supplies of the commodity for electricity generation. It also comes as China is planning a big increase to its nuclear power capacity over the next decade. Added to the holdings of a fund it acquired, Sprott currently holds 24m pounds of uranium, worth around $1bn, in the form of yellowcake.

Other financial players have also been buying the commodity in a bet that its price will rise. Yellow Cake Plc, a vehicle listed in London in 2018, holds around 16m pounds of uranium.

"This has been a key driver of the 30 per cent increase in the price of the metal in 2021," Nick Lawson, chief executive at brokerage Ocean Wall, said.

Demand for uranium is expected to climb from around 162m pounds this year to 206m pounds in 2030 - and even further to 292m pounds in 2040 - according to the World Nuclear Association, largely driven by increased power generation in China as Beijing seeks to cut emissions.

At the same time, the supply of uranium is set to fall 15 per cent by 2025 and by 50 per cent by 2030 due to a lack of investment in new mines.

"Financial players are clearly accelerating price discovery, but this would not be occurring if there was not a fundamental and substantial deficit," analysts at Canaccord Genuity said.

Recommended

The pandemic has also disrupted supply from some of the largest mining operations in Canada and Kazakhstan. In December, Canada's Cameco temporarily suspended production at its Cigar Lake mine due to a shortage of workers, before restarting it in April.

"This is against a backdrop of growing energy demand as the economy recovery and a focus on carbon free generation with nuclear being a key element of non-fossil fuel baseload generation," said Jonathan Guy, analyst at Berenberg.

Shares in Cameco have risen by 70 per cent year-to-date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Overnight, shares in Japanese utility companies rose sharply after Fumio Kishida, a leading contender to become the country's next prime minister, said restarting nuclear power plants was necessary to achieve the country's net zero goals. Nuclear power was shut down in Japan after the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in 2011 and has only slowly been restored.

Last month, the Sprott fund announced it would issue $300m worth of new shares, which would be backed by new purchases of physical uranium.

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Currently listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the Sprott uranium trust is also looking to list on the New York Stock Exchange next year, which could spur further purchases, according to Canaccord.

The Sprott trust buys uranium through WMC Energy, which stores it in Canada, the US, and France. Sprott receives a management fee of 0.35 per cent, as well as a commission of 1 per cent on the gross value or any purchases or sales of uranium.

If investors keep buying uranium, analysts expect utility companies will come under pressure to replace long-term supply agreements before they expire.

At the moment, long-term contracts cover 98 per cent of the uranium needed by US utility companies. But that figure drops to 84 per cent next year, and 55 per cent by 2025, according to Yellow Cake.

"There are now no meaningful volumes available," said Nick Clarke, founder at Curzon Uranium. "Utilities will be forced to re-evaluate their procurement strategies."

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Uranium prices soar as investors scoop up nuclear power fuel

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Sign up to myFT Daily Digest to be the first to know about Uranium news. Nuclear power companies are facing competition for supplies of uranium from financial investors, who are betting on sharply higher prices and demand for the radioactive material used to fuel reactors.

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Agencies

NEW DELHI: Equity, currency and derivatives markets will be closed for trading on Friday, September 10, as the Dalal Street and the nation celebrate Ganesh Chaturthi. Commodity markets will be closed for the morning session but will open in the evening.

The bourses will reopen for trading on September 13, Monday.

On Thursday, the benchmark equity indices closed flat for another day after a lacklustre trading session. Media stocks were in demand, while bank and financial stocks saw selling pressure. Global cues were also mixed.

The 30-share Sensex rose 54.81 points or 0.09 per cent to close at 58,305. The index traded in a range of 250 points. Its broader peer NSE Nifty climbed 15.75 points or 0.09 per cent to 17,369.

Market breadth was in favour of the gainers as 1,844 stocks ended in the green, while 1,345 settled with cuts. As many as 196 stocks hit 52-week highs, mostly from the smallcap space. Meanwhile, 23 others hit 52-week lows, mostly from the microcap space. About 365 stocks hit upper circuit limits and 170 lower circuit limits.

European markets were trading lower in the early hours on Thursday. London-based FTSE was down 1.19 per cent while Paris and Frankfurt declined 0.19 per cent and 0.20 per cent, respectively. In Asia, Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia and China ended in the green while others registered losses.

(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips and expert advice on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds.)

Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.

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NEW DELHI: Equity, currency and derivatives markets will be closed for trading on Friday, September 10, as the Dalal Street and the nation celebrate Ganesh Chaturthi. Commodity markets will be closed for the morning session but will open in the evening. The bourses will reopen for trading on September 13, Monday.

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A coup in Guinea is one of many factors potentially increasing the price of Aluminum

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A coup in Guinea is one of many factors potentially increasing the price of Aluminum

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https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/a-coup-in-guinea-adds-fuel-to-aluminiums-red-hot-rally/21804363

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F EW MIGHT have guessed that Guinea, a west African country of 13m people, played a big role in global commodity markets. In recent years the country has ramped up its production of bauxite, a dirty-red ore that is processed to make aluminium, thanks to hefty investment from China. In 2020 Guinea produced around 90m tonnes of the stuff, about a quarter of the global total, up from 21m in 2015. It now supplies more than half the bauxite used in Chinese refineries. And those refineries, in turn, produce more than half the world's aluminium.

Small wonder then that the military coup that threw Guinea into turmoil on September 5th was felt in commodity markets. Events in the country helped push the price of aluminium, already on a tear, to its highest level in ten years. (Guinea is also home to Simandou, one of the world's richest untapped deposits of iron ore. Share prices in China Hongqiao and Rio Tinto, two investors in Simandou, briefly dipped when news of the coup broke.)

Guinea is only the latest factor behind the surging aluminium price. So far this year it has shot up by around 40% (see chart), faster than that of any other highly traded metal. One reason for the rally is growing demand. Locked-down consumers drank more at home, boosting demand for aluminium cans. As economies have recovered from the deep covid-induced downturns of 2020, demand for aluminium for construction has picked up; plans to spend generously on infrastructure in America, China and Europe should further bolster that demand. And sales of electric vehicles, which tend to contain a bit more aluminium than conventional cars, have pushed up demand for the metal, too.

Supply constraints, however, have been more important. In August a fire put a large refinery in Jamaica out of action. Rio Tinto is trying to resolve a workers' strike at a smelter in Canada. Other disruptions stem from China. Making aluminium uses a huge amount of energy (some traders refer to the metal as "congealed electricity"). New energy-consumption targets have led some provincial authorities, such as those in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, to scale back production. A drought in Yunnan, meanwhile, has hit the supply of hydropower. Together these could lower Chinese annualised aluminium output by about 5%, estimates Gregory Shearer of JPMorgan Chase, a bank.

Whether the coup in Guinea will limit supply further is unclear. So far, mines in the country are still running, ships are still being loaded with bauxite and warehouses in Chinese ports are well stocked. But some analysts worry that other countries will impose sanctions on the new government, or that the new regime itself will tax miners. Either would disrupt the flow of bauxite out of Guinea.

Even then, however, bauxite is abundant enough for Chinese refineries to have other options. This suggests that a bigger concern for the aluminium market is where Chinese regulations go next. Authorities are already worried about soaring metals prices hurting Chinese manufacturers. They have released some aluminium, along with other metals, from their strategic reserves to try to curb inflation.

This objective bumps up against others. One is the energy-consumption targets. Another is a limit on China's aluminium output, set in 2017, when authorities thought the country was producing too much. If Chinese refineries start to restrict production as they approach the threshold, prices may rise until new capacity is built elsewhere.

One possibility is that China starts to move aluminium production abroad, to places where labour is cheap-Indonesia, for instance. Some nickel production has already shifted to the country and China Hongqiao, which is also the world's largest aluminium producer, recently said it would expand its refinery operations there. Guinea's new rulers may end up selling their bauxite to Indonesian firms-with China's help, of course. ■
For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, business and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly newsletter.

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A coup in Guinea adds fuel to aluminium's red-hot rally

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F EW MIGHT have guessed that Guinea, a west African country of 13m people, played a big role in global commodity markets. In recent years the country has ramped up its production of bauxite, a dirty-red ore that is processed to make aluminium, thanks to hefty investment from China.

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Signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes fell 1.8% in July from June, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Sky-high home prices have caused affordability to drop dramatically in the last several months. The median price of an existing home was up 18% in July, according to the Realtors. Much of that was due to the fact that there was far more activity on the higher end of the market, which skewed that median higher.

Pending sales are a forward-looking indicator of sales that close in one to two months.

"The market may be starting to cool slightly, but at the moment there is not enough supply to match the demand from would-be buyers," Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a release. "That said, inventory is slowly increasing and home shoppers should begin to see more options in the coming months."

Mortgage rates fell sharply during July, with the average on the popular 30-year fixed starting the month at 3.18% and ending at 2.84%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That drop gave buyers more purchasing power, which likely helped those on the edge of affording today's high home prices. The lower rates, however, were not enough to really juice the market.

Pending sales were down 8.5% compared with July last year. That annual comparison, though, is an unusual one, because sales spiked so dramatically last summer after the initial shutdown due to the pandemic.

Regionally, the Realtors' pending sales index fell 6.6% in Northeast month to month and was down 16.9% year over year. In the Midwest it dropped 3.3% for the month and 8.5% from July 2020.

In the South, sales fell 0.9% for the month and were down 6.7% annually. In the West, sales rose 1.9% monthly and were down 5.7% annually.

"Homes listed for sale are still garnering great interest, but the multiple, frenzied offers - sometimes double-digit bids on one property - have dissipated in most regions," Yun said.

Total housing inventory at the end of July was 1.32 million units, up 7.3% from June's supply and down 12% from one year earlier (1.5 million). There was a 2.6-month supply of unsold inventory at the July sales pace

Closed sales of existing homes in July, which represent contracts signed in May and June, rose for the second straight month.

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Homebuyers sign fewer contracts in July, as high prices chill the summer market

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Signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes fell 1.8% in July from June, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sky-high home prices have caused affordability to drop dramatically in the last several months. The median price of an existing home was up 18% in July, according to the Realtors.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/business/economy/inflation-coronavirus-economy.html

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Inflation has surged across advanced economies. The shared experience underlines that price gains come from temporary drivers - for now.

Shoppers in New York City last month. The current trend in rising prices ties back to disruptions caused by lockdowns and subsequent reopenings. Credit... Brittainy Newman for The New York Times

Price gains are shooting higher across many advanced economies as consumer demand, shortages and other pandemic-related factors combine to fuel a burst of inflation.

The spike has become a source of annoyance among consumers and worry among policymakers who are concerned that rapid price gains might last. It is one of the main factors central bankers are looking at as they decide when - and how quickly - to return monetary policy to normal.

Most policymakers believe that today's rapid inflation will fade. That expectation may be reinforced by the fact that many economies are experiencing a price pop in tandem, even though they used vastly different policies to cushion the blow of pandemic lockdowns.

The shared inflation experience underscores that mismatches between what consumers want to buy and what companies are able to deliver are helping to drive the price increases. While those may be amplified by worldwide stimulus spending, they are not the simple result of nation-specific policy choices - and they should eventually work themselves out.

"There is a lot of stimulus in the system, and it is pushing up demand and that's driving higher inflation," said Kristin Forbes, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist and former external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

"Some of these big global moves do tend to pass through and prove temporary," Ms. Forbes said. "The big question is: How long will these supply chain pressures last?"

The United States Federal Reserve's preferred price index rose 4.2 percent in July from the prior year, more than double the central bank's 2 percent target, which it seeks to hit on average over time. In the eurozone, inflation recently accelerated to the highest level in about a decade. In Britain, Canada, New Zealand, South Korea and Australia, price gains have jumped well above the level central banks set as their goals.

The big increases have come as supply chains have snarled around the world, adding to transportation costs and throwing the delicate balance of corporate globalization badly out of whack. Prices for airline tickets and hotel rooms dipped last year in the depths of the pandemic, and now they're bouncing back to normal levels, making the numbers look higher than they would if compared with a less depressed base. Neither issue should last indefinitely.

There is a danger that the global price surge could last longer - and become more country-specific - if workers in nations experiencing high inflation today bargain for wage increases and are more accepting of steadily higher prices. Bringing entrenched inflation back under control could require painful monetary policy responses, ones that would probably plunge national economies back into recession.

Given those high stakes, the mere possibility of lasting inflation is ramping up pressure on central banks around the world to consider dialing back their still-substantial monetary policy support - even though many are not yet fully recovered and the pandemic has not ended.

Economies around the world are growing quickly this year, partly as a result of enormous government spending that has pumped some $8.7 trillion into the advanced Group of 20 markets since January 2020 and central bank policies that have made money very cheap to borrow and spend. Central banks have been buying bonds to hold down longer-term interest rates and keeping short-term borrowing costs near or even below zero.

It's not just higher prices that advanced economies have in common. Complaints about labor shortages in some fields are also bubbling up around the world. Job vacancy rates have been climbing in Europe's construction, leisure and hospitality, and information technology sectors. In Britain, firms widely complain of labor shortages, and a dearth of truck drivers caused partly by the nation's exit from the European Union has disrupted supply chains and fueled shortages of milkshakes at McDonald's and peri-peri chicken at Nando's, a restaurant chain famous for the dish.

A restaurant in London in June. Job vacancy rates have been climbing in Europe's construction, leisure and hospitality, and information technology sectors. Credit... Andrew Testa for The New York Times

Those widespread trends highlight the oddities of the current economic moment. Commerce came to a sudden stop and then abruptly restarted when government relief payments padded consumers' wallets, making people eager to spend even as manufacturers struggled to get back to full production and restaurants scrambled to staff back up.

Still, some central bankers are growing nervous about their policies in countries where inflation is higher and labor supply issues are beginning to push up wages. They fret that a cocktail of low interest rates and big government bond buying will add fuel to the temporary-inflation fire, helping asset prices and consumer prices to remain higher. Prominent commentators, both in the media and in financial centers from the City of London to Wall Street, have added to the chorus arguing that central bankers are " behind the curve."

In Britain, Michael Saunders, a policymaker, already voted to end the central bank's bond-buying program, predicting that some of the inflation spike would not be temporary. A few European central bankers have indicated that they should start debating slowing down their pandemic-era stimulus purchase program, and at least one has even suggested an immediate slowdown. Some U.S. officials, including the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, have said that today's inflation might not fully fade and that policy ought to be poised to react.

The extreme worriers are in the minority. Most policymakers in advanced economies are betting that price increases will be temporary, and that inflation might even fade back to uncomfortably low levels over the longer term. From Ottawa to Frankfurt, they have warned against overreacting.

"While the underlying global disinflationary factors are likely to evolve over time, there is little reason to think that they have suddenly reversed or abated," Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during a recent speech. "It seems more likely that they will continue to weigh on inflation as the pandemic passes into history."

Before the pandemic, advanced economies had spent years trying to coax inflation higher, trying to stop an economically damaging downward spiral that had begun to take hold.

Slow price gains may sound like good news to people buying gas, baguettes or hot dogs, but inflation counts into interest rates, so its downward trend in the 21st century has left less room for policymakers to cut rates to rescue the economy during times of trouble. That has helped to weaken recoveries, dragging inflation even lower and fueling a cycle of stagnation.

Even amid the reopening, Japan - a notable outlier among advanced economies - continues to fight that long-run war, battling outright price declines. Coronavirus outbreaks have kept shoppers there at home, weighing on prices for Uniqlo attire and snacks alike. Persistent forces like population aging have also put a lid on demand and constrained companies' ability to charge more.

A shopping district in Tokyo last month. Coronavirus outbreaks have kept shoppers there at home. Credit... Franck Robichon/EPA, via Shutterstock

Other economies are expected to return to their trends of slow growth and weak inflation as the pandemic shock fades and population aging becomes a more dominant force, said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.

"It's like going up a step," Mr. Bryson said. "Once you get to the next step, the rate of increase drops off. It's a one-time price level adjustment because of the pandemic."

If inflation does fade as policymakers expect, the current burst could actually offer benefits: In the United States, it has helped to nudge inflation expectations back out of the dangerously low zone, to levels that are historically consistent with healthy price gains. It has proved harder for central bankers to move prices up than it is for them to cool them off, so that opportunistic inflation could help the Fed to nail its price goals in the longer run.

But if it takes too long to go away, the consequences could be more serious.

"If I'm wrong and inflation does get out of hand, that would lead to slower economic growth in a longer-run sense," Mr. Bryson said, explaining that high inflation tends to bounce around a lot, making it tough for companies to plan and invest.

But he said that even if higher prices lasted, they might settle in at 2.5 percent or 3 percent - which would not cause meaningful problems. By contrast, inflation in the United States popped to double digits during the Great Inflation of the 1970s.

"I don't think we're talking about 1970s-style inflation," agreed Mark Gertler, an economist at New York University. Policymakers around the world have committed to fighting inflation and will not allow it to run out of control. "Central banks can always make inflation transitory by raising interest rates enough."

Eshe Nelson and Ben Dooley contributed reporting.

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Inflation Is Popping From Sydney to San Francisco. It May Be a Good Sign.

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Inflation has surged across advanced economies. The shared experience underlines that price gains come from temporary drivers - for now. Price gains are shooting higher across many advanced economies as consumer demand, shortages and other pandemic-related factors combine to fuel a burst of inflation.

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"The authorised officers will be able to take steps to provide essential food items at concessionary rate to the public by purchasing stocks of essential food items," the president of the island nation, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, said in a statement.

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Covid: Sri Lanka in economic emergency as food prices soar

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"The authorised officers will be able to take steps to provide essential food items at concessionary rate to the public by purchasing stocks of essential food items," the president of the island nation, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, said in a statement.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/09/china-property-market-evergrande-300bn-debt-share-slump?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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Shares in the embattled Chinese property giant Evergrande have slumped again after two credit downgrades in as many days amid concerns that it will default on parts of its massive $300bn debt pile.

Evergrande, which is one of the world's most indebted companies, has seen its shares tumble 75% this year. They fell by almost 10% on Thursday morning before recovering on reports that the authorities may allow the company to reset its debt terms.

Trading in one of the company's bonds was suspended by the Shenzhen stock exchange after the price dropped 20%. After resuming trade, Evergrande's January 2023 bond fell more than 30%, triggering a second trading freeze.

The online market trading platform IG said Evergrande posed "a risk of contagion" after Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse and Citibank were no longer accepting the bonds of another highly indebted Chinese property developer, Fantasia, as collateral.

There were also reports from China on Wednesday of employees protesting outside the company's offices about salaries not being paid. Evergrande claims to employ 200,000 people and indirectly generate 3.8 million jobs in China.

The company has run up liabilities totalling more than $300bn, after years of borrowing to fund rapid growth and a string of real estate acquisitions as well as other assets including a Chinese football team.

But the firm has struggled to service its debts and a crackdown on the property sector by Beijing has made it even harder to raise cash, fuelling concerns it will go bankrupt.

The value of new home sales has fallen 20% in China since the peak in the first three months of this year, and the value of land sales are also sharply down. Along with Beijing's tougher regulation, these factors have made it much harder for Evergrande to dispose of unsold properties even with huge discounts.

Investors questioned how Evergrande was going to dispose of assets in order to repay debts without a clear plan.

"There is a lack of confidence and lots of rumours, the key is that we still don't see a clear [debt resolution] plan," a stock exchange trader told Reuters.

On Tuesday, a stock exchange filing showed that Evergrande had outstanding liabilities worth 562m yuan ($87m) to a supplier called Skshu Paint and repaid some of the money in the form of apartments in three unfinished property projects.

Xi Jinping, China's president, has targeted "unsustainable" economic growth in recent months, along with his drive against the country's increasingly powerful tech billionaires. The assault intensified on Thursday, after Chinese authorities told gaming firms to curb "incorrect tendencies" such as focusing "only on money" and "only on traffic", sending the Hong Kong stock market down 2.3%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since July.

But whether the president would allow Evergrande to go bust if it fails to meet key repayment deadlines on 21 September remains unclear.

Many analysts warn such an event could have a serious impact on the world's number two economy because the firm would go under, leaving hundreds of firms out of pocket.

Evergrande is China's second biggest property developer and has interests in hundreds of cities, specialising in the vast apartment complexes that have sprung up across China in the past 25 years.

Its debts to all manner of companies throughout China means that any default could trigger a knock-on effect for the country's real estate sector, which has been pumped up by ultra-cheap money since the global financial crisis in 2008-09. Investors fear that if Evergrande is allowed to go under, indebted rivals such as Fantasia could quickly follow.

Those worries were increased on Wednesday when Fitch cut its rating on Evergrande to CC, reflecting its view that "a default of some kind appears probable".

"We believe credit risk is high given tight liquidity, declining contracted sales, pressure to address delayed payments to suppliers and contractors, and limited progress on asset disposals," said a Fitch Ratings statement.

The move came a day after Moody's slashed its rating, indicating it is "likely in, or very near, default", while Goldman Sachs has cut the stock from neutral to sell.

Last week, the group said its total liabilities had swelled to 1.97tn yuan ($305bn) and warned of risks of defaults on borrowings.

It issued a profit warning at the end of August in which it admitted that it could default on debt payments. The warning came days after Xu Jiayin, the billionaire founder of Evergrande Group and the third richest person in China, resigned as chairman of its real estate arm.

In the latest indication of the company's funding challenges, financial information provider REDD reported on Wednesday that the company would suspend interest payments due on loans to two banks on 21 September.

James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute, said Evergrande could be forced into a fire sale but cautioned that the sheer size of the business meant that the situation might not be as dire as some imagined.

"It's always important when talking about debts to remember that the company also has assets. When you compare the two, the scale of the risk and the possibility of things spinning out of control are moderated.

"I'd be surprised if Xi allows a full-scale bailout, but you have to see it in the context of a $14tn economy."

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China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts

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Shares in the embattled Chinese property giant Evergrande have slumped again after two credit downgrades in as many days amid concerns that it will default on parts of its massive $300bn debt pile. Evergrande, which is one of the world's most indebted companies, has seen its shares tumble 75% this year.

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Provides a substitute to a primary commodity

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Provides a substitute to a primary commodity

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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/12/business/perfect-day-dairy-protein-hnk-intl-spc/index.html

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Story by Rebecca Cairns; Video by Milly Chan, CNN Business

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This startup is creating 'real' dairy, without cows

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California startup Perfect Day uses fungi to make dairy protein it says is "molecularly identical" to the protein in cow's milk, and can be used to make dairy products such as cheese and yogurt.

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Future price expectations: Apple could raise the price of their new Iphone 13s -- Implications for demand?

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Future price expectations: Apple could raise the price of their new Iphone 13s -- Implications for demand?

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This story is part of Apple Event, our full coverage of the latest news from Apple headquarters.

Apple's new iPhone, expected to be called the , is set to debut on Sept. 14 at the tech giant's next 2021 event, but how much will it cost? When looking at what phone to buy, price will likely have a big impact on your decision. Although it isn't the most exciting detail about the upcoming iPhone, it can help you choose if it's the right smartphone for you, or whether you should opt for last year's , the or the rumored iPhone SE 3 --especially since rumors say the iPhone 13 could be more expensive than its predecessors.

Read more: How to watch Apple's Sept. 14 event live and everything we expect

We have a few thoughts on whether to buy an iPhone 12 now or wait. That decision, however, could be swayed by your color preferences. The iPhone 12 now comes in purple, and the iPhone 13 could come in bubble gum pink. But we won't know exactly how the two iPhones compare until Apple reveals the official iPhone 13 specs.

Meanwhile, rumors about the iPhone 14 are already starting up, with reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicting that the iPhone 14 Pro Max (or whatever the largest model in Apple's 2022 lineup is called) will have a $900 price tag, "the lowest price ever for a large (6.7-inch) iPhone."

We've kept an eye out for more rumors, leaks and clues about the price of Apple's next flagship phone, but so far there isn't much news. We've also gathered the rumors swirling around the iPhone 13's camera specs, design and colors and the phone's rumored features. And don't miss our iPhone 13 wish list. We won't know the final price structure until Apple reveals new phones next week. But in the meantime, we can make some educated guesses on the iPhone 13's price.

Read more: iPhone 13 vs. iPhone 12: All the rumored upgrades

The iPhone 13 may be pricier than the iPhone 12. According to an August report from DigiTimes, the tech giant is considering increasing the costs for the iPhone 13 to compensate for the escalating price of chip production from its supplier, TSMC. Apple's supplier is looking to increase the cost by as much as 20% for "advanced and mature process technologies" by January 2022, the report says. It's unclear, based on the report, how much the iPhone price could increase.

Since the iPhone isn't expected to be a major technical upgrade from the iPhone 12, which was the first to include 5G support, analysts previously predicted that the new iPhone will cost about the same as the iPhone 12, the base version of which starts at $799 (£799, AU$1,349). Since the iPhone 12 led to the largest revenue and profit quarter in Apple's history, the company may be incentivized to follow a similar pricing structure.

Here's the iPhone 12's US pricing, for reference:

It's also possible that Apple may lower the price of the iPhone 13, as other models like Samsung's Galaxy S20 FE and Google's Pixel 5 did in 2020. The Samsung Galaxy S21, released in January, also boasted a lower price tag, starting at $200 less than its predecessor.

For more, check out our review of the iPhone 12 and the best ways to sell or trade in your old iPhone.

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How much will the iPhone 13 cost? We'll find out next week

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This story is part of Apple Event, our full coverage of the latest news from Apple headquarters. Apple's new iPhone, expected to be called the , is set to debut on Sept. 14 at the tech giant's next 2021 event, but how much will it cost?

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-did-all-the-shipping-containers-go-11628104583

shortage of shipping containers

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The shipping container that has been the building block of global trade growth is turning into the latest source of frustration for importers and exporters coping with world-wide supply-chain disruptions.

The steel boxes are harder than ever to find as surging demand to restock inventories and a series of shipping disruptions has left many thousands of containers stranded at sea on ships anchored near jammed-up ports. Still more are stacking up at inland freight hubs in the U.S., Europe and Asia as companies struggle to cope with the cargo flows that at times have overwhelmed their operations.

The result is what Tim Boyle, chief executive of Columbia Sportswear Co., on a recent earnings conference call said is a "container dislocation" that has contributed to skyrocketing costs and complicated efforts to meet resurgent consumer demand.

Containers are essential equipment for global trade, providing the ability to efficiently handle large volumes of consumer goods, apparel, manufacturing parts and other materials across today's long supply chains.

The boxes are in short supply even though much of the world seems awash in shipping containers and as production of the boxes is expected to hit record levels this year.

Container factories, concentrated almost solely in China, are expected to produce a record 5.4 million 20-foot-equivalent units, or TEUs, of the steel boxes this year, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. The production has grown rapidly since 2.8 million TEUs were produced in 2019, part of a yearslong decline in orders amid economic uncertainty and slowing global trade growth.

John Fossey, head of container equipment and leasing research for London-based Drewry, said that in principle there are more than enough containers to handle global trading volumes. In practice, he said, availability in several parts of the world has become incredibly tight because large volumes of containers are stuck in the wrong place.

Mr. Fossey said the pullback in production in recent years may have contributed to today's shortages, but the disruption triggered by the pandemic has been the main factor hampering availability.

Lars Jensen of Denmark-based shipping consultants Vespucci Maritime, traces the beginning of the container shortage to the early months of the pandemic, in the spring of 2020, when consumer demand slumped and shipping lines canceled many of their routes between Asia and North America. As consumer demand snapped back during the summer of 2020, thousands of empty containers were stuck in the U.S. and exporters in China faced long waits for boxes to ship their goods.

Events such as a grounded container ship's blockage of the Suez Canal in March, the shutdown of a key port in southern China in May and June that left some 350,000 containers idle and big backups at ports in the U.S. and Europe have added to the strains.

Now, some U.S. exporters say shipping lines are refusing to send boxes inland to pick up their cargo because they are trying to get empty containers back to factories in Asia as quickly as possible to take advantage of historically high shipping prices for exports from the continent.

Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, said a survey of members in the fall showed that 22% of sales are lost because they can't get cargo overseas.

For the loaded containers that are sent inland, congestion on rail networks and a shortage of truck chassis, drivers and warehouse workers has led to big backups at cargo facilities as companies struggle to unpack the boxes and get them back into circulation.

Freight railroads Union Pacific Corp. and BNSF Railway recently restricted transport of shipping containers from the West Coast ports to Chicago to give them time to clear the stacks of containers that had grown at the Midwestern shipping hub.

Truckload carrier Schneider National Inc. said the "average unload dwell time" for its customers using containers was up 70% in the second quarter over the same period in 2019 because of a shortage of workers to handle the boxes. The company has added about 1,000 containers to its network and Chief Executive Mark Rourke said in an earnings conference call July 29 that it would "bend our network to give priority to those shippers and consignees who most efficiently and effectively" unload and return containers and truck chassis.

The strains on equipment availability are drawing the attention of regulators. Carl Bentzel, a member of the Federal Maritime Commission, recently raised concerns about the reliance by U.S. exporters on containers and truck chassis that are made in China.

Congestion and delays have increased the time it takes a container to get from Beijing to Chicago to more than 70 days from about 30 days, Mr. Bentzel said.

There doesn't appear to be much that regulators can do in the near term to make more containers available, however, and industry executives and experts say the strains on supply chains are likely to last through the end of the year, providing little hope of relief for shippers.

Ken O'Brien, president of Gemini Shippers Group, a New York City-based cooperative that represents more than 250 companies who buy space on ships, said it is strange there isn't a pile of containers waiting to be picked from. "You just always thought they were there, and now it's very much a hand to mouth operation," he said.

Write to Paul Berger at Paul.Berger@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Where Did All the Shipping Containers Go?

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
The shipping container that has been the building block of global trade growth is turning into the latest source of frustration for importers and exporters coping with world-wide supply-chain disruptions. The steel boxes are harder than ever to find as surging demand to restock inventories and a series of shipping disruptions has left many thousands of containers stranded at sea on ships anchored near jammed-up ports.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58419842

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Mat Stringer used to hand out 250 business cards a year.

"I would take a batch of 50 with me wherever I would go," says the UK-based operations manager. "It is just a quick and easy way to remind people of your details."

Then coronavirus arrived in March of last year, and over the past 18 months Mr Stringer hasn't handed out a single one. "All of my work has been online," he says.

Before the pandemic a vast amount of business cards were being printed around the world. One estimate put it at 27 million per day, or more than seven billion each year.

But Covid-19 has made many of us more nervous about spreading germs. Even as we return to workplaces, or get back to networking face-to-face, will the habit, or for some - the ritual - of handing over a paper business card become a thing of the past? And what technology could fill the gap?

Edward Senju appears on the computer by video link from Singapore. On the screen above his left shoulder is a QR (quick response) code. Amid the pandemic, these black, barcode-like squares have become increasingly common, and can be scanned to open up a webpage, such as restaurant's menu.

"If you can, scan the code shown here," instructs Mr Senju.

After hovering a smart phone over the code, a web-link opens with his contact details and an option to save them.

"If we can have these QR codes that show who you are, and what kind of role you have, the conversation goes much easier," he says.

Mr Senju is regional chief executive for a Japanese tech firm called Sansan Global, which supplies database software to help businesses to manage and share customer and supplier contact details internally.

The pandemic meant its clients were suddenly no longer getting the physical business cards that they could scan and add to the system, so Sansan adapted and launched its virtual business cards in June of last year.

Since then around 4,300 companies are now paying a subscription to use its QR-code based system.

In addition to being able to add the code to your video call, it also works in person via your smart phone - the person you meet just has to scan the code on your screen for your details to appear on their handset.

Jason Alvarez-Cohen argues that traditional business cards are old-fashioned and ripe for replacement.

"[Physical] business cards get forgotten, they get mixed up in your wallet," he says. "And you still have to manually enter that information [if you want to keep it digitally], which is time consuming and not efficient."

Mr Alvarez-Cohen is the co-founder of Popl, a California-based contact-sharing app. It uses NFC (near-field communication) technology, via a small round tag that you stick to the back of your mobile phone, to beam your details to another person's handset.

"All I have to do is hover my Popl next to your phone and it sends the information." The other person doesn't need to have either the firm's app or tag installed.

Popl launched in February 2020, just before the start of the global pandemic, and it says that it now has more than 10,000 business customers.

"Now we're in this more contactless world I think these kind of systems will stay in place, even after we get out of this pandemic," says Mr Alvarez-Cohen.

One company that has switched to digital business cards is Capital International Group, an investment firm on the Isle of Man.

"They [the old paper cards] were just gathering dust in a drawer," says its chief executive Greg Ellison.

Staff now carry a single, reusable NFC-based card, made of bamboo, to transfer their details to a recipient's smart phone.

"It's literally a tap as if you're paying for goods at a shop," says Mr Ellison.

New Tech Economy is a series exploring how technological innovation is set to shape the new emerging economic landscape.

At the firm - where the management have electric cars - the shift to digital was driven by efforts to be more sustainable.

"Obviously it saves lots of paper being wasted," says Mr Ellison.

Global firm Vistaprint is one of the world's largest printers of traditional paper-based business cards. It has more than 17 million customers, and business cards account for roughly a quarter of its sales.

Florian Baumgartner, its international president, admits that Covid-19 hit sales very hard.

"Second half of March 2020 and early April, we saw some really severe impacts." says Mr Baumgartner.

"Business cards sales were down 70% globally during that time. If you don't meet, you don't share business cards with your customers. At least not in the traditional way."

However, he says that sales have since recovered, especially in North America, as lockdown restrictions have lifted. Although orders are not yet back up to pre-pandemic levels.

Mr Baumgartner adds that its customers are now increasingly embracing QR codes printed on its paper business cards, which link to their contact details in digital form.

And it will soon be launching contactless plastic business cards, based on NFC-technology.

"Business cards are definitely not dead," he says.

This is likely to be particularly the case in some Asian countries, where the exchange of physical business cards carries great significance.

"There is a lot of importance to it, especially in countries like South Korea, China and Japan," says Singapore-based etiquette and networking coach, Shireena Shroff Manchharam.

"I think that in southeast Asia, it's definitely almost ceremonial. It's a ritual. It's really a chance to see the hierarchy, the position of somebody. It sets the tone for a meeting."

Yet Ms Shroff Manchcharam believes that's changing, and the pandemic has been instrumental.

"It was the first thing that you did when you met somebody new," she says. "[But] as people return to offices here... I don't think people would expect it anymore."

Yeong Lai Lai, who works in media relations in Singapore, says she will continue to hand out business cards. "It still represents good business etiquette and professionalism."

Yet she adds that she has noticed that others now reciprocate less often, because they don't carry them.

Back in the UK, Mat Stringer is keen to start handing out his business card again. In fact, he has just ordered a new batch of 500.

As a personal touch his new cards are claret and blue in colour, to represent his favourite football team, Aston Villa. " It can be a little conversation starter," he says.

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Has Covid killed off business cards for good?

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Mat Stringer used to hand out 250 business cards a year. "I would take a batch of 50 with me wherever I would go," says the UK-based operations manager. "It is just a quick and easy way to remind people of your details."