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Ryan Ang, Woo Siting, Klemen sutatio, Nigel Ng, Qian Hui

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Ryan Ang, Woo Siting, Klment sutatio, Nigel Ng, Qian Hui

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Through the implementation of body scan check-ups at high human traffic area such as airports, hospitals, hotels and shopping centres , we are able to identify and isolate those who are infected. Hence, this allows a lower chance of being in contact with an infected person and in return, reduces chances of an outbreak.At the same time,  the promotion of better hygiene regime reduces chances of  spreading MERS. As our research stated that only 175 out of 67 million people contracted MERS, the number can be easily contained and monitored. Thus, this reduces the chances of having an outbreak. Despite being more deadly,  MERS has a lower transmission rate. Therefore, as the situation is already under controlled, there will be a lesser chance of an outbreak in Thailand. When there is no outbreak, the country economy will not be affected at all. 

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Through the implementation of body scan check-ups at high human traffic area such as airports, hospitals, hotels and shopping centres , we are able to identify and isolate those who are infected. Hence, this allows a lower chance of being in contact with an infected person and in return, reduces chances of an outbreak.At the same time,  the promotion of better hygiene regime reduces chances of  spreading MERS. As our research stated that only 175 out of 67 million people contracted MERS, the number can be easily contained and monitored. Thus, this reduces the chances of having an outbreak. Despite being more deadly,  MERS has a lower transmission rate. Therefore, as the situation is already under controlled, there will be a lesser chance of an outbreak in Thailand. When there is no outbreak, the country economy will not be affected at all. 

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Upon reading this article, we feel that it is highly impossible for MERS to have no impact on Thailand's Economy at all. Firstly, MERS or Middle East Respiratory syndrome is a deadly virus. It will affect a country economy if it breaks out. This is because it reduces the amount of tourist influx, leading to a decrease in tourist consumption and hence, weakening the tourism sector. This is return causes it to affect Thailand's Economy as 17.1% of Thailand's GDP is contributed by the tourism sector. Hence, when the tourism sector of the country is greatly affect, this will result in a lower GDP and hence a weaker economy. So why will there be a lower tourist influx? This is because tourist are afraid of contracting the deadly disease as well as an outbreak. Travel Agents, World Organizations such as the WHO or World Health Organization will also greatly discourage the visitation to an affected country. Hence, we feel that it is greatly impossible for MERS or any disease to have no impact on Thailand's Economy be it short-term or long-term.

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Upon reading this article, we feel that it is highly impossible for MERS to have no impact on Thailand's Economy at all. Firstly, MERS or Middle East Respiratory syndrome is a deadly virus. It will affect a country economy if it breaks out. This is because it reduces the amount of tourist influx, leading to a decrease in tourist consumption and hence, weakening the tourism sector. This is return causes it to affect Thailand's Economy as 17.1% of Thailand's GDP is contributed by the tourism sector. Hence, when the tourism sector of the country is greatly affect, this will result in a lower GDP and hence a weaker economy. So why will there be a lower tourist influx? This is because tourist are afraid of contracting the deadly disease as well as an outbreak. Travel Agents, World Organizations such as the WHO or World Health Organization will also greatly discourage the visitation to an affected country. Hence, we feel that it is greatly impossible for MERS or any disease to have no impact on Thailand's Economy be it short-term or long-term.

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Why did Thai Baht sinks to such a low? Here are some reasons we think might be the cause of it.

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Why did Thai Baht sinks to such a low? Here are some reasons we think might be the cause of it.

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From the article,"Thai economic fundamentals are much weaker than neighbouring countries","The central bank’s interest-rate cut and the dollar’s strong outlook have also added to the baht’s weakness." From this article, it mainly cited that due to the fact that Thailand's economic fundamental are much weaker than neighbouring countries and hence, causing it to be in such a bad position. So, what are the fundamentals that we think are the factors that affected it? Well, firstly poor policies. Thailand has very few monetary policies that are actually successful. The prolonged effect of such weak policies led to a very weak consumer confidence and hence, lower GDP. As we learnt from MacroEconomics, the consumption function of the GDP includes: GDP= C+I+G+(X-M) and consumption plays a very important role. Hence. with low consumption, the growth of the country's country will be slow. As a result, this leads to a weaker currency as a currency is usually serve to ''Measure" the size of the economy. Further adding to the problem, political instability is another reason why we think Thai Baht had sunk to such near Six-Year low. With political instability, foreign investors are deterred to invest in Thailand, be it setting up their own companies or investing in Thailand's companies. This causes the country to reduce it's competitiveness in the global markets.Lastly, with the domino effects of a weak currency, this causes even more problems for the country. Investors investing in government bonds and/or stocks will start to withdraw or close their position when a currency weakens to such an extent that it erodes away the profits it had made. As cited from the Article: "The baht’s weakness is also causing concern among some foreign investors” as it reduces the value of their investments in dollar terms, he said." Hence, without more investment in government bonds and/or stocks, this causes the government to have little funding and hence leading to a poorer system and a poorer economy.

To explain another point cited in the article, the article mentioned this sentence:" The central Bank's interest-rate cut and the dollar's strong outlook have also added to the baht's weakness" Firstly, this has caused a decrease in the currency strength because when there is a interest rate cut, this results in higher inflation and hence, weaker currency. Secondly, as a currency is always compared in a pair, the strong dollar outlook has caused Thai Baht to further weaken and hence, reducing it strength. In fact, USD was so strong such that the currency pair "USDJPY" had resulted in a 12-year-high.

Last but not least, Inflation. Inflation is known to be the main "Destroyer" for currency strength because it literally erodes away the currency's purchasing power. To give a clearer picture of what we think inflation does, we created a linkage to how inflation weakens the currency.

High inflation rate--> high interest rate --> less people borrowing --> more people saving than spending -->lower consumption rate-->less demand --> less business --> higher unemployment rate --> weakening GDP -->weakening of currency strength -->hence causing a Six-Years low Thai baht

or

High Inflation rate---> Erodes Currency Strength---> Causing 6 years low Thai Baht

Hence, this can be another reason why the currency strength has weaken. But based on research, it seems that Inflation was not the main reason in causing the weakening of it as inflation has been in the negative zone.

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Thai Baht Sinks to Near Six-Year Low as Stocks Erase 2015 Gains

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Thai Baht Sinks to Near Six-Year Low as Stocks Erase 2015 Gains

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The Thai baht sank to the weakest level since September 2009 and shares erased this year's gains as global funds sold the nation's assets amid concern growth will weaken in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

The benchmark SET Index dropped 1 percent to 1,485.72, the lowest close since Jan. 6. The gauge has declined 0.8 percent this year. The baht fell 0.3 percent to 33.805 per dollar, extending its loss in the past month to 3.7 percent, Asia's worst-performing currency during the period.

Overseas investors have sold a net $112.2 million of Thai shares and withdrawn $786 million from local notes since the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly lowered benchmark interest rates on April 29. The Finance Ministry cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.7 percent from 3.9 percent on the same day, citing a slump in exports and domestic consumption.

"Thai economic fundamentals are much weaker than neighboring countries," Poramet Tongbua, an investment strategist at Bualuang Securities Pcl, said by phone from Bangkok. "The baht's weakness is also causing concern among some foreign investors" as it reduces the value of their investments in dollar terms, he said.

A Bloomberg gauge of dollar strength climbed 0.4 percent Monday as investors bet the Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates this year while global peers retain unprecedented easing.

Quick Decline

Thailand's central bank last month cut its one-day bond repurchase rate for a second straight meeting, reducing it by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.5 percent. Only two economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the decision, while 18 forecast no change.

"Some foreign investors are probably reducing their positions on Thai bonds on concern about the baht's quick decline," Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank Pcl, said by phone from Bangkok. "The central bank's interest-rate cut and the dollar's strong outlook have also added to the baht's weakness."

PTT Pcl slid 2.5 percent, the biggest drag on the benchmark stock index on Tuesday. Siam Cement Pcl dropped 2.2 percent, Bangkok Bank declined 1.1 percent and Kasikornbank Pcl fell 1.4 percent.

The MAI Index, a gauge of small-cap companies, sank 2.5 percent, taking its decline from this year's peak to 21 percent and meeting the common definition of a bear market.

"Most investors prefer to stay on the sidelines at the time of share-price declines," Prapan Charoenprawatt, the president of Market for Alternative Investment, or so-called MAI market, said by phone from Bangkok. "The lower trading volume has added to the weak sentiment in the MAI market."

Ten-year sovereign bonds fell for the first time in three days, pushing the yield up 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 2.92 percent. The one-year interest-rate swap declined three basis points to 1.435 percent.

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Thai Baht Sinks to Near Six-Year Low as Stocks Erase 2015 Gains

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The Thai baht sank to the weakest level since September 2009 and shares erased this year's gains as global funds sold the nation's assets amid concern growth will weaken in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. The benchmark SET Index dropped 1 percent to 1,485.72, the lowest close since Jan. 6.