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Instructions:  View instructions on the section padlet.

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Instructions:  View instructions on the section padlet.

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Team:  Students will do one chapter per section.  View your assigned padlet at this link.

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Team:  Students will do one chapter per section.  View your assigned padlet at this link.

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Why The Price Of Coca-Cola Didn't Change For 70 Years | Planet Money | NPR

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-Graph that plots the quantity of a specific item a business intends to sell at a given price.
-Summary of a business' selling plans.
-They hold other things constant.

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-Tendency for the quantity supplied to be higher when the price is higher.
-Means supply curves slope in an upwards motion since the higher the price, the higher the quantity supplied.

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I found this article to be pretty interesting! Not only does it talk about why the supply is low, such as shipping issues and the human factor of things, but also what the changes are on the large-scale chain.

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Everything was about supply shortages in 2021. COVID vaccine shortages at the start of the year were replaced by fears that we would struggle to buy turkeys, toys or electronics for the holidays. For most of the year, retailers' shelves, car showrooms, and even petrol stations were emptier than usual. Some shortages were resolved quickly, others linger. So, are we facing another year of shortages or will the supply chain crisis abate in 2022?

It is worth acknowledging that the shortages have happened for many reasons. During the early 2020 lockdowns, a sudden run on essentials, such as toilet paper and pasta, left shelves around the world bare. Singapore ran out of eggs as consumers hoarded them, for example, and retailers ordered more eggs, desperate to satisfy demand. But once the demand had been satisfied, there was suddenly an oversupply. In June of that year, distributors threw away 250,000 eggs.

This is what happens when demand temporarily changes. The effect magnifies with each tier of the supply chain as every supplier adds an extra buffer to their order to be on the safe side. Minute changes in customer demand can, therefore, result in huge extra demand for raw materials, giving rise to what is called the bullwhip effect. As with a whip, a small flick of the wrist can lead to a big crack at the other end.

The bullwhip effect can result from demand suddenly falling, as well as rising, and during the pandemic these forces have sometimes combined. For instance, a combination of the crash in demand for new cars and higher demand for devices like laptops and games consoles for lockdown entertainment contributed to the semiconductor-chip shortage.

With modern cars that sometimes contain 3,000 chips, car makers are major customers for chips, but as car sales plummeted in 2020, supplies of chips were redirected to manufacturers of smaller electronic goods. When demand for cars picked up again a few months later, there were not enough chips to go around. Carmakers were forced to stop production lines and could not make enough cars to satisfy demand. They also started hoarding chips, making the shortages worse.

Shipping shenanigans

Other imbalances in today's supply chains are larger than competing companies or industries. Shipping containers move some 1.9 billion tons per year by sea. alone, including virtually all imported fruits, gadgets and appliances. Normally containers are continually loaded, shipped, unloaded, and loaded again, but severe trade disruptions resulting from lockdowns and border closures broke that cycle. Containers were left in wrong locations as trade shifted, shipping capacity was reduced and vessels could not land where and when they intended. Coupled with congested ports and problems with timely unloading and onward transportation, a typical container now spends 20 percent longer in transit than before the pandemic.

Unsurprisingly, shipping rates ( and prices more generally) have soared in this environment. Prices on major east-west trade routes have increased by 80 percent year on year, which is bad news for economic recovery. Even a 10 percent increase in container freight rates can reduce industrial production by around 1 percent.

The human factor

Technological advancement may have reshaped manufacturing, but production and delivery still rely heavily on people. Waves of layoffs in production due to lockdowns resulted in labor shortages when demand picked up. To give one example, Vietnam - which is a major home for garment manufacturing, with factories in the country counting brands like Zara, Ralph Lauren, North Face, Lacoste and Nike as customers - saw a mass exodus of workers from industrial hubs to rural areas, which could not easily be reversed.

Worker shortages were also particularly evident with lorry drivers in the United Kingdom and other countries. The sector already struggled to recruit and retain drivers because of pressures of rising demand, an aging workforce and worsening working conditions. Meanwhile, Brexit has made it harder for migrant drivers to work in the UK.

There were at least early signs of the driver problems easing in the run-up to Christmas as more recruits came through the system, which will have been one reason why goods shortages were not as bad as they might have been. Equally, however, we should not expect a swift end to the supply chain crisis in 2022, as the omicron variant is leading to more staff shortages as people take time off sick and suppliers navigate new restrictions. China's zero-COVID strategy is likely to continue to disrupt both production and transportation of goods, possibly for the entire year.

Large-scale supply chain changes

Yet, we might also see problems in the opposite direction, via another crack of the bullwhip. Back-orders in many sectors will have been filled, but consumer demand may well be cooling now that furloughs have ended, and interest rates are beginning to rise. So, some companies (including those in the apparel and footwear industries) might find they end up with an over-supply of goods. To avoid this, they will have to level their production rates with demand, but demand may still be difficult to forecast - and not only because of omicron and China. A new variant of concern leading to a new wave of lockdowns could easily result in people once again spending money on things rather than holidays and nights out.

Supply chains with good visibility of actual demand and clear communication across supply chain tiers will be at a considerable advantage. In sum, it is likely that different industries will experience both shortages and over-supply problems throughout 2022.

A longer-term issue is to what extent supply chains change. The pandemic has raised new doubts about outsourcing production to far-away countries with lower labor costs. Equally, problems were aggravated by strategies to maximize supply-chain efficiency such as just-in-time manufacturing, where companies keep inventories to a bare minimum to reduce costs.

A major theme of 2021 was how to make supply chains more resilient. But building additional capacity, holding inventory, and safeguarding against disruptions is not cheap. As shipping logjams ease and recruitment rises, the talk of reform could peter out. Some companies will probably continue to improve their just-in-time with a sprinkle of just-in-case. Others will bring production of some products closer to home markets while also keeping offshore production facilities to serve local markets. It also remains to be seen to what extent COVID reverses globalization.

Ultimately, supply chains are driven by people, and 2021 showed the limitations of the system. As companies and consumers adapt, current knots will untangle somewhat. But as the pandemic wears on and the realities of keeping businesses profitable come back to the fore, you probably should not expect a resolution in 2022.
Sarah Schiffling is a Senior Lecturer in Supply Chain Management at Liverpool John Moores University. Nikolaos Valantasis Kanellos is a Lecturer in Logistics at the Technological University of Dublin. (This article was initially published by The Conversation.)

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Supply Shortages Will Continue in 2022, But So Will the Issue of Excess Stock - The Fashion Law

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Everything was about supply shortages in 2021. COVID vaccine shortages at the start of the year were replaced by fears that we would struggle to buy turkeys, toys or electronics for the holidays. For most of the year, retailers' shelves, car showrooms, and even petrol stations were emptier than usual.

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This video is short and pretty interesting! It talks about how supply has changed from the start of the pandemic and now.

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Will Supply Chain Issues Get Any Better In 2022?

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Here's a link to a video explaining the supply curve in case you're like me and more of a visual learner!

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Individual Supply Curve and The Rational Rule for Sellers

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Individual Supply Curve and The Rational Rule for Sellers

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Sell one more item if the price is greater than or equal to the marginal cost
-To maximize profits, keep applying the Rational Rule for Sellers until price = marginal cost

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This article gives a few reasons why you might see some empty shelves in the grocery store.

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Grocery store shortages are back. Here are some of the reasons why

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Bare shelves at supermarkets are attributed to omicron, a labor shortage, climate change and other reasons. “We’re really seeing the perfect storm,” one industry expert told NPR.

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Movement and Shifts Along the Supply Curve

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Movement and Shifts Along the Supply Curve

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Shifts versus Movements along the Supply curve

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Fun video for a deeper understanding of supply curves

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Demand and Supply Explained Part 2 - Macro Topic 1.5 (Micro Topic 2.2)

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Even the Girl Scouts are impacted by supply issues!

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Even the Girl Scouts are impacted by supply issues!

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The newest Girl Scout cookie is feeling pain from the supply chain

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Adventurefuls, a brownie-inspired treat that features a caramel-flavored crème and a dash of sea salt, has fallen victim to some supply chain and labor disruptions as part of a “nationwide shortage.”

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Rightward shift- increase in supply
Leftward shift- decrease in supply

Factors that shift the supply curve:
1. Input prices
2. Productivity and technology
3. Prices related to outputs
4. Expectations
5. The number of sellers and type

1-4: Shift individual and market supply
5: Only shifts market supply

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The global semiconductor shortage, sparked by pandemic-influenced demand spikes, reportedly led to a near-sellout of 2022 chip supply before the year even started, but investors and analysts are concerned the end of the party is already within sight.

While demand remains strong, the semiconductor industry faces a high bar in terms of stock performance after a boom in prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a surge in demand for cars, electronics and other products that need chips. Chip makers have moved to increase manufacturing of chips, but that has sparked concerns that the rush to build supply may overshoot demand, which happened in the boom-then-bust year of 2018 and is making analysts somewhat cautious going into 2022, despite reporting that the annual chip supply has already been claimed.

Since the pandemic caused demand for chips to surge, silicon-wafer fabricators have been rushing to build out their manufacturing capacity. For instance, Intel Corp. INTC, said in October it expected to spend $25 billion to $28 billion to build out its capacity in 2022, up from $20 billion in 2021, then announced on Friday plans to spend more than $20 billion in Ohio to start building out what it claims will be the "one of the largest semiconductor manufacturing sites in the world" at a total investment of $100 billion over the next decade.

That build-out, however, was criticized by analysts last earnings report as they expressed concern that Intel's aggressive capital expenditure plan would hurt profit margins, and the stock dropped nearly 12% the next trading day.
Don't miss: The semiconductor shortage is here to stay, but it will affect chip companies differently
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon outlines the debate among analysts on whether the chip sector is now in its "peak cycle" or whether it is "stronger for longer." While "demand remains off the charts" because of shortages and "company sentiment is among the most positive we have ever heard," Rasgon said he's "a touch nervous for what 2022 might hold."

"For example, auto semis are overshipping normal content trends by over 40% at the moment, and some end markets that showed substantial overship (PC notebook CPUs for example) are beginning to show correction," Rasgon said.

"For all the talk of lean channels, distributors appear to be actively building substantial inventories," Rasgon said. "And there has been incremental talk of supply chains, while still tight, beginning to show signs of normalization, normally a signal of a turn."

For a glimpse of what may be in store, ASML Holding NV recently reported what Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse called a "very mixed" quarter with a revenue forecast of a 20% or more gain in 2022, but along with some revenue recognition issues in the first quarter and higher-than-expected operating expenses.

Still Muse said that "issues in the Q are transitory in our view, and demand continues to well outpace supply for ASML - supporting the view that 2022 is DONE and that backlog is building for 2023."

Read: The pandemic PC boom gave personal computers their biggest year in nearly a decade

Speaking of 2022 being "done," the big reason silicon-wafer fabricators are building out their capacity is that they still have monthslong waiting lists for chip makers seeking to meet demand.

Recently, third-party fab Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. in its most recent earnings report, doubled down from last year on how much it was going to spend in 2022 on fab capacity, budgeting $40 billion to $44 billion.

Samsung Electronics Co. shied away from providing an outlook for 2021 in October but said it had spent 30 trillion won, or about $26 billion at the exchange rate at the time, nine months into 2021 on building out capacity for semiconductor customers. That follows Samsung's pledge in August to spend up to $205 billion in capital expenditures over the next three years. Samsung is scheduled to report earnings on Jan. 27.

Fear that the surge in semiconductor demand could end in the near future is the main reason why chip companies' outlooks for the first quarter and year this earnings season will be crucial for setting expectations. Citi Research analyst Christopher Danley expects outlooks will keep rising, but expressed some caution that the chip "upturn is in the late innings."

"We expect consensus estimates to go up again during 4Q21 earnings season, driven by healthy end demand, extended lead times and higher pricing," Danley said. "We are seeing the higher pricing flowing through the supply chain, and we believe it will continue to drive the next leg up."

More optimistic is Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsay who said he expects "solid and broad" fourth-quarter beats and upside to margins and profitability because of high demand from auto makers, industrial customers, mobile device customers, as well as from gaming and PC customers.

"While multiples have compressed to start the year, we see no changes to the sector's long-term prospects with secular trends outweighing cyclical concerns," Ramsay said. "While it has been a tumultuous start to the year, perspective is warranted as most names in our coverage universe are coming off all-time highs with this selloff providing investors opportunity for profit-taking or the ability to re-enter/build positions at more favorable valuations."
Read: The pandemic boom in videogames is expected to disappear in 2022
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya said he remained "bullish on semis - the new 'oil' of the rapidly digitizing global economy."

Following 2021's growth, Arya expects 13% growth in chip sales of $619 billion total in 2022, with memory sales rising 21%, and 10% growth in non-memory chips. Interest rate increases from the Fed, however, "are the biggest risk to semi industry valuation for CY22 in our view, leading to a potentially weak Q1," Arya said.

Underscoring the high bar chip companies are facing, the PHLX Semiconductor Index that tracks major chip stocks soared 60% in 2019, 51% in 2020, and 41% in 2021. By comparison, the S&P 500 index gained 29% in 2019, 16% in 2020, and 27% in 2021. Year-to-date, the SOX index is down more than 10%, while the S&P 500 is off 7%.

The outlooks will begin rolling in next week, as U.S. chip makers and suppliers begin to report earnings. Texas Instruments Inc. is scheduled to report on Tuesday, after the bell, a day ahead of Intel, which just a few weeks earlier announced it poached Micron Technology Inc.'s CFO David Zinsner and named Michelle Holthaus to head its largest business unit, client computing, better known as the PC business.

Suppliers of chip manufacturing equipment will join them: Lam Research Corp. is scheduled for Wednesday and KLA Corp. on Thursday. Earnings and outlooks from those companies are key in gauging the speed of the industry's increase of manufacturing capacity.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. , with a new line of gaming cards, is scheduled to report earnings of Feb. 1. Recently, Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar downgraded AMD on concerns that a slowdown in the PC market, and NXP Semiconductors NV on a slowdown in auto chip sales when supply normalizes.

Qualcomm Inc. is scheduled to report Feb. 2, and eyes will be on the company's 5G sales forecast as AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. postpone rollouts of 5G service near airports as airlines alter flight schedules in a continuing debate on how the technology's signal affects aircraft.

After that, GlobalFoundries Inc. reports on Feb. 8; Nvidia Corp. , which recently showcased its new gaming cards, is estimated to report on Feb. 17. Recently, Nvidia experienced a big setback when the U.S. sued to block the company's acquisition of chip designer Arm Ltd.

After that, Marvell Technology Inc. is forecast to report around March 10, while Broadcom Inc. is estimated to report around March 17, and Micron, which reported last in late December, is expected to report its earnings around March 30.

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Chips may be sold out for 2022 thanks to shortage, but investors are worried about the end of the party

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The global semiconductor shortage, sparked by pandemic-influenced demand spikes, reportedly led to a near-sellout of 2022 chip supply before the year even started, but investors and analysts are concerned the end of the party is already within sight.

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-A graph plotting the the total quantity of an item supplied by the entire market, at each price
-Market supply curves are built from individual supply curves. Arrivals and exits from businesses to the market must be considered.
- Because market supply curves are built from individual supply curves, factors that shape individual supply curves, like rising marginal cost, also shape market supply
-Market supply curves follow the law of supply, therefore it is upward-sloping

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-Alternative uses for resources. Supply of a good will decrease if the price of a substitute-in-production rises.
-A distillery may produce less vodka if the price for hand sanitizer rises. Alcohol would be the original good an the hand sanitizer would be the substitute-in-production
-In contrast to complements-in-production

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-Goods that are made together. Supply of a good will increase if the price of a complement-in-production rises.
-Molasses is a byproduct of sugar refining. If the price of molasses were to rise, sugar refineries would be more profitable and production of sugar and molasses would increase.
-In contrast to substitutes-in-production

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The relationship between individual & market supplies and estimating market supply 

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The relationship between individual & market supplies and estimating market supply 

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How the pandemic has affected the economy, from empty shelves to higher prices

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COVID supply disruptions, evident in product shortages at the retail level, were an important driver of inflation a year after the start of the crisis.

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This article discusses a new way to gauge disruptions within the supply chain using data related to international shipping and manufacturing costs

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A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures - Liberty Street Economics

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Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Factory shutdowns (particularly in Asia) and widespread lockdowns and mobility restrictions have resulted in disruptions across logistics networks, increases in shipping costs, and longer delivery times.

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Marginal Product and Diminishing Marginal Product

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Marginal Product and Diminishing Marginal Product

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MARGINAL PRODUCT: the extra output you obtain from an additional unit of input. For example, hiring one additional worker.

DIMINISHING MARGINAL PRODUCT*: The marginal product of an input declines as you use more of that input.

*It's important to note that diminishing marginal product does not necessarily mean that extra inputs will reduce output (see page 70).

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Perfect Competition in Relation to Setting Prices

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Perfect Competition in Relation to Setting Prices

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PERFECT COMPETITION occurs in a market when...

1. all firms in the market are selling an identical good

2. there are many buyers and sellers who are all very small in relation to the total size of the market.

In perfectly competitive markets, the best price is the market price so the managers do not spend much time determining prices. This is called being a price taker, which is someone who decides to charge the price and whose actions do not affect the price.

For more information, check out page 66.

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Individual Supply Curve: graph showing the quantity that a business plans to sell at each price.

It is upward-sloping and shows at x price, a company will sell y amount of product (pg. 63).

Law of Supply: the tendency for the quantity supplied to be higher when the price is higher (pg. 65).

Setting prices in a competitive market (pg. 66)...

Perfect competition: where all firms are selling an identical good and there are many buyers/sellers

Price-taker: someone who decides to charge the price and whose actions do not affect the price.

Not ALL markets are perfectly competitive...but this chapter focuses on the ones that are.

When selecting the best quantity to supply, follow the 4 core principles (see chart on pg. 67).

The marginal principle and cost-benefit principle are key here.

The opportunity cost principle also plays a role since it helps to compare other alternatives, which leads into...

Variable costs: costs (like labor) that change with the quantity of output produced (pg. 68).

Fixed costs: costs (like land) that don't change when you alter the quantity of output produced (pg. 68).

Rational Rule for Sellers in Competitive Markets: sell one more item if the price is greater than (or equal to) the marginal cost (pg. 68-69).

Combines the marginal, cost-benefit, and opportunity cost principles.

This rule allows sellers to maximize their profits and tells them to continue selling into price = marginal cost.

Because of this, your supply curve is your marginal cost curve and it can reveal your marginal costs.

Diminishing marginal product leads to rising marginal costs (pg. 70).

Marginal product: the increase in output that comes from an additional unit of an input (like labor).

Diminishing marginal product: the marginal product of an input declines are you use more of that input.

Marginal costs can also rise because costs of the inputs may rise (pg. 71).

***Individual supply reflects marginal costs***.

The market supply curve is upward-sloping. Higher price leads to a larger quantity supplied because... (pg. 73):

Higher price leads individual businesses to supply a larger quantity.

Higher price means more businesses are supplying their goods/services and a lower prices means less businesses are supplying their goods/services.

Movement along the supply curve: when a price change causes movement from one point (on a fixed supply curve) to another point on the curve.

Change in the quantity supplied: the change in quantity associated with movement along a fixed supply curve.

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Increase in Supply: a shift of the supply curve to the RIGHT.
Decrease in Supply: a shift of the supply curve to the LEFT.

5 Key Factors that Shift the Supply Curve (pg.75):

1. Input Prices

2. Productivity and technology

3. Prices of related outputs

4. Expectations

^all 4 shift individual supply AND market supply.
5. The type and number of sellers (ONLY shifts market supply)

1. INPUT (pg. 76):

Supply with HIGH input prices = shift to the RIGHT (up)

Supply with LOW input prices = shift to the LEFT (down)

2. PRODUCTIVITY & TECHNOLOGY (pg.   76):

HIGHER productivity = increase in supply (shift to the RIGHT)

LESS productivity = decrease in supply (shift to the LEFT)

3. PRICES OF RELATED OUTPUTS (pg.76-77):

Emphasizes the connections between different markets.

Substitutes-in-production: alternative uses of your resources. Supply of a good will decrease if the price of a substitute-in-production rises.

Complements-in-production: goods that are made together. Your supply of a good will increase if the price of a complement-in-production rises.

Supply will INCREASE (shift to the RIGHT) when: prices of substitutes-in-production fall OR if prices in complements-in-production rise.

Supply will DECREASE (shift to the LEFT) when: prices of substitutes-in-production rise OR prices in complements-in-production fall.

4. EXPECTATIONS (pg. 77):

Supply will DECREASE (shift to the LEFT) when next year's price is expected to be higher.

Supply will INCREASE (shift to the RIGHT) when next year's price is expected to be lower.

5. TYPE/NUMBER OF SELLERS (pg. 77):

Market with a SMALL amount of sellers = shift to the LEFT.

Market with a LARGE amount of sellers = shift to the RIGHT.

SHIFT vs. MOVEMENT (pg. 78-79):

A supply curve does NOT shift after a price change because it already shows how much a business will change its quantity it supplies if the price changes.

When the PRICE changes, it is a MOVEMENT along the supply curve.

When OTHER FACTORS change, there is a SHIFT in the supply curve.

Parallels between supply and demand curves - bottom of pg. 80.

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Similarities & Differences between Supply & Demand

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Similarities & Differences between Supply & Demand

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While this article is from September 2021, it still discusses relevant issues pertaining to the prices of food, the issues with the supply chain, and how pricing is expected to slightly lessen this year.

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Expect to see higher prices in the last quarter of this year in a number of grocery categories. After that, some relief is likely, experts say.

In this photo taken on Aug. 12, 2021, fruit and vegetables are sold at an area grocery store in Washington, DC. A key U.S. inflation gauge continued to climb in July, as the economy bounces back from last year's downturn, according to Commerce Department data. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)

Before the pandemic, most people may not have thought much about where their food came from, how far it traveled or how it was produced. Certain industry phrases have underscored rising grocery bills over the past 18 months. "Turbulence and volatility." "Unprecedented times." But one of the biggies is "supply chain disruption."
Share with The Post: What's one way you've felt the impact of inflation?
Food producers have struggled with shortages, bottlenecks, and transportation, weather and labor woes, all of which have caused food prices to rise. The end is not in sight: Inflation at the wholesale level climbed 8.3 percent last month from August 2020, the Labor Department reported Friday, the biggest annual gain since the department started calculating the number in 2010. Those prices are passed on to consumers: Meat, poultry, fish and eggs are up 5.9 percent over last year, and up 15.7 percent from prices in August 2019, before the pandemic.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday reported an additional overall food price increase of 0.4 percent in August compared with July, after larger increases in recent months.

Sysco, one of the nation's biggest food distributors, showed food inflation of 10.2 percent on its most recent quarterly report, increases that are passed along to restaurants and to the restaurants' customers in turn.

'We can't take another blow': Some restaurants may not survive renewed mask mandates

"History shows us that price adjustments are more likely to be accepted in the market when industry-wide and broad-based input cost inflation occurs," David Marberger, chief financial officer of Conagra Brands, one of the world's largest food companies, said in the company's third-quarter 2021 earnings call. "And that's the environment we see today."

Translation: They are paying higher prices, they are charging higher prices, higher prices are everywhere.

What to know

Eighteen months into the pandemic, why are there still supply chain problems?

How do packaging problems send grocery prices higher?

Is anyone taking advantage of the pandemic?

Are there bright spots? What foods' prices will not rise steeply?

How long will higher prices continue?

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Here's why your food prices keep going up

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Expect to see higher prices in the last quarter of 2021 across a number of grocery categories. After that, experts expect some relief.

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The Rational Rule for Sellers in Competitive Markets:

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The Rational Rule for Sellers in Competitive Markets: