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Ability for decisions to be made with uncertain data

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Ability for decisions to be made with uncertain data

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Some of these events can be forecast using ensemble weather prediction models. However, they may only have a 10-20% probability with forecast lead time of a few hours or a day. Low probability but very high impact events. How to integrate these into decision making?

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The impact is high so it would be good to be able to warn the population if this might be happening.

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The impact is high so it would be good to be able to warn the population if this might be happening.

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More organised and systemic systems that are driven locally to protect themselves from the risk. Often we see AA as driven by government and/or agencies but, in these cases (and it should also be better woven into AA in general) having SOPs in place and have agreements on the warnings and to act on them locally can be the most empowering move - and sometimes the only option that can be taken.

# data[].attributes.subject
More organised and systemic systems that are driven locally to protect themselves from the risk. Often we see AA as driven by government and/or agencies but, in these cases (and it should also be better woven into AA in general) having SOPs in place and have agreements on the warnings and to act on them locally can be the most empowering move - and sometimes the only option that can be taken.

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Shared examples of how to consider other hazard EWS beyond floods - what are the similarities, differences? Examples of EAPs for different hazard types at different temporal scales for different stakeholders. Examples of localised governance mechanism options

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Shared examples of how to consider other hazard EWS beyond floods - what are the similarities, differences? Examples of EAPs for different hazard types at different temporal scales for different stakeholders. Examples of localised governance mechanism options

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Landslides follow heavy rainfall in some parts of Eastern Africa, so useful to develop AA with this multi-hazard perspective

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Landslides follow heavy rainfall in some parts of Eastern Africa, so useful to develop AA with this multi-hazard perspective

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Better communication of warnings and what to do linked to them. Encourage local leadership and think about groups such as women coordination bodies, church groups or youth groups who could potentially champion the approach. Understand with the community as well where their risk appetite lies and what they are trying to protect/avoid in the future

# data[].attributes.subject
Better communication of warnings and what to do linked to them. Encourage local leadership and think about groups such as women coordination bodies, church groups or youth groups who could potentially champion the approach. Understand with the community as well where their risk appetite lies and what they are trying to protect/avoid in the future

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With these short lead times we may have to focus on just saving lives as with livelihoods and assets it needs to be weighed up what could be done and also in a safe way so people’s lives don’t be at risk.

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With these short lead times we may have to focus on just saving lives as with livelihoods and assets it needs to be weighed up what could be done and also in a safe way so people’s lives don’t be at risk.

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Monitoring equipment should be installed to better understand hazard drivers, interrogate forecast models, and provide early warning at very short lead times

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Climate informed probabilistic risk assessment to understand likely exceedance probabilities and impacts of weather/flood events. To aid trigger definition, local communication of risk,  identification of mitigation measures, financial risk transfer, etc.

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Very accurately able to forecast although lead times are short and  observation s missing

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Very accurately able to forecast although lead times are short and  observation s missing

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Limited data and definitions (e.g. flash floods often appear as "flooding" in historical databases)

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Limited data and definitions (e.g. flash floods often appear as "flooding" in historical databases)

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Coverage of rainradars over the entire world

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While early action might not be possible due to lead time, AA could release automatic funding for rapid response?

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Climate change is having an impact on high mountain environments, how is this changing risk? We can't rely on past events as an indicator of what could happen in future.

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Might not be able to anticipate the sudden local event but anticipate and have AA plans for the secondary impacts like displacement and disease outbreaks etc

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agreed actions for very short lead times (9-12hrs)

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agreed actions for very short lead times (9-12hrs)

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How to use better Satellite science and data for these kind of event but depends on Sat location and visibility

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Sat data could be used to identify historic data for hot spot risk maps

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Diffucult to exclusively work on sudden onset events
Capacity needed for local stakeholders to be able to do work for AA on ground

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Challenges -1) funding takes time to reach at the local level- low cost actions needed without global funds ;

2) lack of administrative processes to facilitate local community engagement for AA response

3) community needs to organize earlier on but if no champions or leaders then difficult for AA

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Using crisis modifier type of funding

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Germany, Argentina, India, South Sudan  - 1) listen more to the scientists and not the politicians about EWS
2) better monitoring to ensure where the funds are going
3) identify local champions to teach awareness

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Who are the actors?
Are the capacity of local actors enough to address those challenges?

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Big demand for better early warning and AA for flash floods in urban areas (especially where people are not aware of the risk) but don’t know if it’s feasible to provide the forecast

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Local communities are mostly the first to respond to event. And they experience firsthand the consequences of sudden onset events and they probably won’t be used to it because of the scarcity of the event. How can we sensibilize local communities and develop protocole jointly for an event that may never occur ?