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This section offers examples and/or additional information on each of the Steps to Resilience, in the context of coastal flood risk.

Exploring climate hazards

Coastal areas face the challenge of increasing population (putting more people and more assets in harm's way) compounded by an increased potential for flooding. The stakes are high. More than 50 percent of the American population-about 164 million people-live or work in coastal counties and help generate 58 percent of the nation's gross domestic product. 1 In 2010, almost 2.8 percent of the U.S. population, or more than 8.6 million Americans, lived in coastal areas that have at least a one percent chance of flooding in any one year. 1 Events like Hurricane Sandy in 2012 show how public safety and well-being are jeopardized by the disruption of crucial lifelines, such as water, energy, and evacuation routes.

The following are considerations for exploring hazards for communities in coastal regions:

Choose an appropriate planning period. Select a planning time period over which to evaluate sea level impacts. Most plans use 2100 as the end point, yet not all decisions have the same time horizon over which they must operate.

Determine which factors or adjustments to include in your local sea level projections. Use local data sources and protocols that are easy for citizens to access and review: this transparency will build confidence in your planning.

Account for changes in flood frequency and duration. Because sea level rise will likely increase the extent, frequency, and duration of coastal flooding that is considered "frequent," you must factor in all current flood-producing events.

Consider potential impacts to both natural and built environments. Coastal environmental health is closely linked to sea level. Categories of impacts to consider include infrastructure, loss of land, marsh migration, flooding impacts on land and infrastructure, social and economic impacts, saltwater intrusion, bank and bluff failure, and coastal erosion.

Communicate the impacts. Sea level rise presents serious problems for coastal communities. Unfortunately, the concepts involved can be difficult to understand, and public discourse about them can be politically charged.

Assessing vulnerabilities and risks

Vulnerable Populations: Not everyone living and working on the coast faces the same level of vulnerability. Socioeconomic disparities create uneven exposures and sensitivities to growing coastal risks and limit adaptation options for some communities. About 18 percent of those exposed to high flood risk by the end of this century are those who fall within the "high social vulnerability" category. 1 This means that while many coastal property owners directly on the shorefront tend to be less vulnerable, adjacent populations inland are often considered highly vulnerable.

Economic: Nationally important assets in vulnerable coastal locations-such as ports, tourist attractions, and fishing sites-are increasingly exposed to sea level rise and other flood hazards. Economic activity in coastal counties accounted for approximately 66 million jobs and $3.4 trillion in wages through diverse industries and commerce in 2010. 1 That year, about $6.4 trillion, or 45 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, was generated by coastal communities. Roughly half of our nation's vulnerable property value is located in Florida, and the most vulnerable port cities are Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and the Port of Virginia. 1

Built Environment: Many coastal regions were settled long ago, so that much coastal infrastructure is older than most inland locations. Critical lifelines-such as water supply, energy infrastructure, and evacuation routes-are increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels and storm surges, tsunamis, inland flooding, erosion, and very heavy precipitation events. Climate-related changes are already having profound impacts on coastal built environments. Long-term sea level rise and short-term flooding from storms are threatening infrastructure such as roads, sewers and drainage systems, wastewater treatment plants, and power grids. The inflexibility of some water-dependent infrastructure-such as onshore gas and oil facilities, port facilities, thermal power plants, and bridges-make landward relocation difficult.

Natural Environment: With more than 94,000 miles of coastline, the United States is home to one of the largest and most diverse coastal zones in the world. The coasts contain some of the nation's most prized and varied ecosystems. Our nation depends upon healthy and abundant coastal resources to help drive our economy by providing food, jobs, storm protection, transportation, health benefits, and recreation.

Coastal ecosystems provide a suite of valuable benefits (ecosystem services) on which humans depend, including potentially reducing the impacts from floods, some buffering from storm surge and waves, and providing nursery habitat for important fish and other species, water filtration, carbon storage, and opportunities for recreation and enjoyment. These ecosystems, however, are vulnerable to climate change because many have already been dramatically altered by human stresses. The combined effects of sea level rise and climate change will result in further reduction or loss of the services that these ecosystems provide, including potentially irreversible impacts, unless coastal communities take action to preserve their vital natural resources.

Investigating options

Coastal communities have a variety of options to protect, replace, and redesign existing infrastructure-including flood proofing and flood protection through dikes, berms, pumps, integration of natural landscape features, elevation, more frequent upgrades, or relocation. Technical and financial feasibility may limit how well and how long coastal infrastructure can be protected in place before it needs to be moved, taken down, or abandoned.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Association of State Floodplain Managers recommend cities and communities take a "No Adverse Impact" (NAI) approach to floodplain management. The idea is to "do no harm" while mitigating coastal flood hazards. 2 Here are some ways you can plan for, or prevent, adverse impacts:

Review your city's/community's land use planning and zoning policies, update as needed, and share with local officials, businesses, and residents.

Review your building standards, update as needed, and share with local officials, businesses, and residents.

Examine your local drainage system's readiness to handle large volumes of water.

Use "natural or nature-based infrastructure" instead of built infrastructure where possible.

Invest in restoration projects to preserve coastal lands or convert them from built environments to natural or nature-based environments, such as dunes, wetlands, sea grass beds, and oyster reefs.

Relocate people, buildings, and/or infrastructure that face significant risk and that are willing and able to be moved.

Reinforce critical lands, buildings, and/or infrastructure if they must remain where they are.

Elevate buildings and/or infrastructure that must remain where they are.

Build protective barriers and buffer zones.

Prioritizing Actions

Changes in climate threaten to disrupt economic activity within coastal areas and the regions they serve, and may result in significant costs to protect or move infrastructure. Events like Hurricane Sandy in 2012 show how public safety and human well-being are jeopardized by the disruption of crucial lifelines, such as water, energy, and evacuation routes.

More than 5,790 square miles and more than $1 trillion of property and structures in the U.S. are at risk of inundation from sea level rise of two feet above current sea level, which could be reached by 2050. 1 Investing approximately $50 billion in adaptation strategies (risk reduction/management strategies) over the next 20 years could lead to approximately $135 billion in averted losses over the lifetime of adaptive measures. 1

Leaders and residents in coastal regions are increasingly aware of their high vulnerability to sea level rise and other climate-related changes, and are developing plans to prepare for potential impacts. And they're beginning take actions to adapt and build resilience. Still, there remain significant institutional, political, social, and economic obstacles to implementing adaptation actions. People often cite economic uncertainties as reasons for inaction, but a review of various studies shows that the costs of inaction are 4 to 10 times greater than the cost of investing in hazard mitigation. 1

Investments in coastal adaptation and restoration projects offer win-win opportunities for low-income coastal communities that yield financial returns on investments, create jobs, stimulate local economies, and revitalize the health of ecosystems. 3 The occupations associated with ecosystem restoration can provide pathways out of poverty for low-income coastal communities. Areas where restoration activities are most needed also tend to be areas with high rates of poverty. In these regions, the influx of coastal restoration jobs with wages that exceed the national average are a positive economic driver, and provide environmental benefits that can help sustain the physical infrastructure needed to maintain communities' new economic viability.

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Building Resilience in Coastal Communities

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This section offers examples and/or additional information on each of the Steps to Resilience, in the context of coastal flood risk. Coastal areas face the challenge of increasing population (putting more people and more assets in harm's way) compounded by an increased potential for flooding. The stakes are high.

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By 2050, 800 million people will live in cities where sea levels could rise by more than half a metre

Many coastal communities around the world already live with the threat from sea level rise and coastal flooding; where climate impacts can drown neighbourhoods, put people's lives at risk and wreak economic havoc. But, if the world fails to commit to the Paris Agreement's goal of reducing carbon emissions and limit global average temperature rise to 1.5 oC, many of the world's cities will face an extraordinary threat from rising seas and coastal flooding by mid-century. According to the new The Future We Don't Want analysis, the total urban population at risk from sea level rise, if emissions don't go down, could number over 800 million people, living in 570 cities, by 2050. It is therefore crucial that Paris Agreement pledges are honoured if the social and economic impacts of catastrophic climate change are to be avoided.

Estimates suggest that the global economic costs to cities, from rising seas and inland flooding, could amount to $1 trillion by mid-century. As with other climate hazards, local factors mean that cities will experience sea level rise at different paces. Cities on the east coast of the U.S., including New York City and Miami, are particularly vulnerable, along with major cities in South East Asia, such as Bangkok and Shanghai. In the U.S., east coast cities are witnessing sea level rise that is two to three times faster than the global average while cities along China's Yellow River Delta are experiencing sea level rise of more than 22 cm (9 inches) per year. According to a 2016 report by Christian Aid; Miami, Guangzhou, and New York are the top three cities in terms of the value of assets exposed to coastal flooding between 2010 and 2070; between 2 and 3.5 trillion dollars. But it's Kolkata, Mumbai and Dhaka that have the highest number of people at risk from coastal inundation; between 11 and 14 million.

"Hurricane Sandy had a devastating impact across the city ... 44 New Yorkers lost their lives, close to 90,000 buildings were in the inundation zone, 2 million people lost power and the city sustained close to $19 billion in damages." - Jainey Bavishi, Director of Recovery and Resiliency

Figure 1 - Cities a risk from sea level rise of 0.5 metres by 2050s [Cities projected to receive at least 0.5 metres of sea level rise by the 2050s under RCP8.5.]
Cities are at risk of coastal flooding and storm surges

Even though variations in geography leave certain cities acutely exposed to sea level rise and coastal flooding, such as low-lying delta cities in typhoon and hurricane zones, a city's level of climate risk is intensified by socio-economic circumstances and the built environment's shape and form. In New York City, some of the most valuable properties in the world are located in flood-prone areas at the southern tip of Manhattan and real estate valued at an estimated $129 billion lies within the city's floodplains.

When Hurricane Sandy struck New York in 2012, coastal floods impacted an estimated 90,000 buildings in New York City alone, while 2 million people lost power, which caused extensive damage, disrupted commercial activity and costed the city over $19 billion. "The hurricane exacerbated the challenges across the city," said Jainey Bavishi, New York City's Director of Recovery and Resiliency, "whether it would be inadequate infrastructure, lack of affordable housing, or existing environmental hazards". When the waters seeped in over Manhattan, metro stations were flooded and electrical substations submerged, which impacted critical services such as hospitals; several of which had to be evacuated.

While the financial scale of a storm surge impact may be unique in New York, considering the city's property values and status as a global financial centre, many other cities are dealing with a common problem: How can a city increase its resilience to climate change while simultaneously meeting the housing demands of a rapidly growing, low-income population?

Such is the situation in Dar es Salaam, the largest city in Tanzania. An estimated 8 percent of the city already lies below sea level, which puts over 143,000 people at risk from coastal inundation. But an extremely rapid population growth of 5.3 percent a year means that unplanned informal settlements are expanding into flood-prone areas, where poor residents are highly susceptible to climate impacts. There, the residents' vulnerability is heightened by inadequate storm water drainage, sewage and piping systems that result in public health hazards during floods.

Neighbourhoods and road infrastructure in Dar es Salaam is frequently inundated, along with river valleys that traverse the city. When it floods, transport systems are disrupted and it can take two to three hours to reach your destination, while the city centre often becomes inaccessible to public transport. Storms and heavy rainfalls furthermore damage electricity poles, which cause regular blackouts, and consequent economic knock-on effects, according to Grace Mbena, Principle Town Planner in Dar es Salaam.

The Indonesian capital Jakarta, meanwhile, flooded in 1976, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2007 and 2012 and is facing similar issues as Dar es Salaam - but at a megacity scale. In northern Jakarta, close to 90 percent of the metropolitan region already lies below sea level, and more than 60 percent of the city's 10,6 million residents, and particularly the people who live in Kampungs - poor, informal, high-density settlements - are vulnerable to flooding. Based on the experiences and prediction, "every five or six years there are larger floods," said Aisa Tobing, Senior Adviser, Jakarta Research Council. Jakarta is especially susceptible to sea level rise and high tides since it's also experiencing one of the fastest land subsidence rates in the world. The digging of illegal wells is deflating the city from below, while the crushing weight of urban sprawl adds additional pressure, causing land to sink by 20 to 25 cm a year; especially in certain areas in North Jakarta.

"Based on climate adaptation research, in 2025, without improving adaptive capacity, more Kampungs will become very vulnerable to climate change." - Aisa Tobing, Senior Adviser, Jakarta Research Council

In Jakarta, climate change, along with urban development patterns and the geographic condition of being a low-lying delta city, reinforce each other in a troublesome spiral. The result is inundated homes and a paralysed metropolitan infrastructure; along with increased health hazards due to the spread of garbage-laden and highly polluted water. Even without the runaway global warming that would occur by 2050, in the absence of emissions reductions in line with the Paris Agreement, a recent New York Times article points out that hydrologists' estimation is that Jakarta has 10 years at hand to halt its submergence. If not, millions of residents will be displaced, much of the city's infrastructure will be wiped out and the country's economy severely impacted.

Keeping the waters at bay

Reducing emissions in line with the Paris Agreement would mean that the worst climate scenarios won't come to pass, but even with limited global warming sea level rise and coastal flooding is bound to get worse.

For all the destruction that Hurricane Sandy brought with it, the climate hazard served as a poignant reminder about the city's vulnerability - along with the economic importance of keeping New York safe. In the hurricane's wake, the city government called upon academic experts, the private sector, and regional agencies to strengthen urban policies and plans to reduce climate risk; including impacts from sea level rise and floods. "We're very lucky in NYC to work with an independent panel of scientists called the New York City on Climate Change (NPCC). They release projections on how climate change may impact New York City every few years and this is mandated by local law," said Ms. Bavishi. Based on expert advice, New York City has developed a resilience strategy that aims to strengthen costal protection, safeguard critical services and infrastructure, upgrade buildings to withstand future climate impacts, and ensure neighbourhoods are safe and prepared. There was also a new city task force, that worked together with community organisations to better understand the role these organsations played in Sandy recovery efforts. According to Ms. Bavishi, the task force recommended improving coordination among government and community organisations, providing government support for local capacity building of community organizations, and increasing coordination of financial resources for organizations both in advance of, and after a disaster.

New York City is working on protecting its 520 miles of coastline, through a multi-layered approach, focusing on the most vulnerable areas first. The city has completed the Rockaway Boardwalk, which integrates costal protection as a feature, and authorities are currently advancing the final design of a project on the east side of Manhattan, where an elevated park will include a floodwall so that New Yorkers don't lose waterfront access in one of the city's most densely populated areas. Other broad measures include an updated building code that accounts for new flood maps and raises elevation requirements for future structures along with a novel zoning designation called " special coastal risk districts ", which limits density in areas that are most at risk.

In Dar es Salaam, the response to sea level rise and flooding has been focused on restricting construction in flood-risk areas to reduce the spread of vulnerable informal settlements. To do so, property rights in less vulnerable areas have been formalised to incentivise families to evacuate flood-prone neighbourhoods. Through regularisations, the city can provide basic infrastructure services such as water supply, storm water drainage, public toilets, waste collection points and transport links. Ensuring that communities become more resilient can be a moving target, though. Relocated households in Dar es Salaam sometimes sell their formalised properties in the upgraded, climate safe areas, and move back to their neighbourhoods of origin. Since the older neighbourhoods may be riskier but have other benefits, such as being located closer to the city centre where connections to markets, hospitals and businesses are better, explained Ms. Mbena.

And when Dar es Salaam attempted to upgrade certain at-risk areas with better storm water drainage, road infrastructure, public toilets and lighting as well as a better police presence for security, through the Community Infrastructure Upgrading Project, property values went up. This rise, in turn, fuelled urban gentrification. The experience in Dar es Salaam shows that finding solutions to climate impacts and pressing housing needs isn't easy. It requires a continuous conversation with affected communities to better understand and meet the residents' expressed needs.

In Jakarta, the city has sketched on metropolitan responses as well as neighbourhood measures. "We have short term plans on building a sea wall. For the long run, there are plans to relocate residents at risk" said Ms. Tobing. With assistance from the Dutch government, Jakarta has developed a city-wide climate adaptation strategy that includes a Sea Defense Wall Master Plan. Furthermore, city officials have launched the Socially Inclusive Climate Adaptation for Urban Resilience Project, a five-year effort, that costs $1.3 billion and aims to relocate close to 400,000 people from riverbanks and reservoirs through a participatory process.

"We have short term plans on building a sea wall. For the long run, there are plans to relocate residents at risk." - Aisa Tobing, Senior Adviser, Jakarta Research Council

Other initiatives prevent the digging of illegal wells, to halt land subsistence, as well as support community-level adaptation in Kampungs. The idea is to integrate community knowledge into city-level adaptation plans, which allows Jakarta to capitalise on residents' existing knowledge and experience of flood impacts, without having to spend additional government funds on external expertise and costly risk assessments. Through the programme Kampung Climate, Jakarta also encourages competitions between local community leaders to upgrade their green spaces in order to make their communities more resilient. The goal is for green space to make up 30 percent of the city's land area, a share is on the rise from a low-point of 9 percent. Flooding is still commonplace, but "the time it takes for water to be absorbed and recede is much faster. Before it would take three days but now it takes a few hours," said Ms. Tobing.

As the varying experiences and challenges in New York City, Dar es Salaam and Jakarta show, climate change and resultant sea level rise and flooding will have diverse impacts based on a city's geography, urban development pattern, economic makeup and social structure. Despite these variations, however, the broader experience of sea level rise and flooding under business-as-usual climate scenarios will be shared by over 570 cities throughout the world, from Miami to Guangzhou to Mumbai. In cities rich and poor, dense and sprawling, hot and cold, The Future We Don't Want research shows that unabated climate change will expose 800 million people and trillions of dollars in assets to ever harsher and more frequent climate hazards.
This content is from 2018. View the full "The Future We Don't Want" report.

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Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - C40 Cities

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Many coastal communities around the world already live with the threat from sea level rise and coastal flooding; where climate impacts can drown neighbourhoods, put people's lives at risk and wreak economic havoc.

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Sea level rise - fact & fiction: John Englander at TEDxBocaRaton

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Google Forms - create and analyze surveys, for free.

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Create a new survey on your own or with others at the same time. Choose from a variety of survey types and analyze results in Google Forms. Free from Google.

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Google Forms - create and analyze surveys, for free.

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Create a new survey on your own or with others at the same time. Choose from a variety of survey types and analyze results in Google Forms. Free from Google.

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Sea Level Rise is getting Worse Youtube Video

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Sea Level Rise is getting Worse Youtube Video

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Sea level rise is getting worse. Here's what you need to know.

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Urban resiliency in response to projected sea level rise