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Based on information found on the eighth district one can determine that the candidate elected into office will be Pete Stauber.

First, the estimated outcome of the election can be authenticated by public opinion poll results. One of three credible public opinion polls lean in favor of Stauber winning the election. With the other two saying that it will be a toss-up. This supports our estimated outcome because the majority of sources believe that Pete Stauber will win the election correspondingly, because the two that say it is a toss up where taken a lot farther out then the pull that show that Pete Stauber has a family substantial lead over Radinovich. Therefore showing that while it was closer earlier Pete Stauber has pulled ahead of Joe Radinovich. Second, our estimate is backed up by the popularity of Stauber.  Stauber was endorsed by Donald Trump which can increase his popularity in the rural areas and because he was talked about by Donald Trump on his tweets and on television Stauber is a well-known name. Because people know his name and who he is they are more likely to vote for him. Last, Jennifer Carnahan (who is the chairwoman for the Republican party of Minnesota) said, "We're not interested in putting bike lanes in everywhere, trying to do $15 per hour minimum wage that's going to wipe out every small business owner, being so far to the left on health care—that doesn't work anywhere in the 8th Congressional District.” This demonstrates how the common Democratic planks do not work as well in smaller cities. This will be a disadvantage to Radinovich in the election which supports our estimated outcome of the election.

Some could say that District 8 voted democratic in the 2016 election and therefore would most likely stick to voting democratic but over the years district, eight has moved from a solidly Democratic district to a more mixed district over the years. DFL candidates are winning the eight district by a narrow count in the past few years. This election could be the election that district eight moves to the Republican party.

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DFL Narrowly Winning District 8 In The Past

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DFL Narrowly Winning District 8 In The Past

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It's been a hard-fought and costly election battleground, with the DFL winning with razor-thin margins the past few elections, while both sides spent in the tens of millions during their campaigns.

During a sit-down Tuesday, April 24, Minnesota Republican Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan characterized the race as one of the most consequential in the nation and GOP candidate Pete Stauber-a St. Louis County commissioner and former Duluth police officer-as a political hopeful that doesn't fit the mold of previous Republican candidates, or the mold of a career politician and a typical political insider for that matter.

"It's one of the two biggest pick-up opportunities for national Republicans," Carnahan said. "Pete Stauber is such a great candidate all around. He fits this district. He's been traveling around. We think this year we'll flip this district from Democrat to Republican."

Stauber-touted as a "golden child" by Republicans on Capitol Hill, Carnahan added-runs a race standing in stark contrast to his DFL peers. The district's GOP convention, May 5 in Park Rapids, is largely a formality, Carnahan said. Stauber has been the presumptive Republican candidate since the beginning, before Rep. Rick Nolan, D-Crosby, made his stunning reversal and announced his retirement in February.

The DFL field, in comparison, was a fractured five-way race until Leah Phifer-the winner of every ballot during the District 8 DFL Convention-dropped out of the race when she was unable to reach the vote threshold necessary for the party endorsement, triggering a race to the primaries. Now it's a four-way race between Phifer's runners-up-former state Rep. Joe Radinovich of Crosby, state Rep. Jason Metsa, DFL-Virginia, North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy and former Duluth TV news anchor Michelle Lee. None of them have Nolan's political clout, Carnahan said.

Nolan-along with Tim Walz of District 1 and Collin Peterson of District 7-formed a unique trifecta of DFL representatives filling seats in distinctly red, Republican-leaning districts. Now, with Nolan's retirement and Walz's decision to join the governor race, there's an opportunity to win these seats, Carnahan said.

Even disregarding the divided nature of the 8th District DFL, the candidates are too progressive and reminiscent of the Twin Cities metro area, Carnahan said. Their message doesn't sit well with rural, blue-collar voters prevalent within District 8, and while Nolan may have had political influence and name recognition to successfully go against the grain, none of his potential DFL successors do, Carnahan said.

"The 8th Congressional District is not downtown Minneapolis," Carnahan said. "We're not interested in putting bike lanes in everywhere, trying to do $15 per hour minimum wage that's going to wipe out every small business owner, being so far to the left on health care-that doesn't work anywhere in the 8th Congressional District."

So where does that leave Stauber-a relatively new and inexperienced arrival to a political arena of this size and, by his own admission, someone who doesn't fit the Washington, D.C., stereotype?

"To me it's a positive. Don't people keep telling us to drain the swamp?" Carnahan said of Stauber. "We don't want to keep electing career politicians; we want to elect people that understand our values, that have gone through life as we have."

Unlike "out of touch" DFL candidates, or even some prior GOP hopefuls, Stauber fits into the communal fabric of District 8, Carnahan said-a Second Amendment championing, adamantly pro-mining, card-carrying conservative who advocates "common sense" as a fix for a "broken" national government.

In response to concerns of a "blue wave" or "blue midterms"-essentially, a backlash or surge of Democratic fervor in the face of President Donald Trump's election in 2016-Carnahan characterized these prognostications as the outlook of a vocal minority, just a few loud voices versus any real consensus among voters.

"It's always a smaller group of people that are the loudest," she said. "It happens with everything-it happens in protests, it happens in marches."

While Republicans have ceded districts to Democrats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that overwhelmingly voted for Trump in 2016, this trend has not borne out in Minnesota. The state's GOP has held strong in recent special elections and, Carnahan said, with the political landscape of Minnesota in a state of flux, Republicans look to capitalize.

"I don't anticipate a blue wave in Minnesota at all. In fact, what I think is going to happen is that we've got three out of eight congressional seats for Republicans," Carnahan said. "I see, in November, Republicans having five or six of those eight seats."

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Minnesota GOP sees land of opportunity in 8th District

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DULUTH-The 8th Congressional District might be Democratic-Farmer-Labor country, but don't tell that to Minnesota Republicans. Banking on a number of favorable signs, the GOP is looking at a district that's been a DFL stronghold for all but one term since 1947 and they're seeing red.It's been a hard-fought...

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3 Major Issues Pete Stauber and Joe Radinovich are debating 

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3 Major Issues Pete Stauber and Joe Radinovich are debating 

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Gun Control:
Stauber: He believes that the government should be protecting peoples right to the 2nd amendment. But also he says that their should a national data base for people that shouldn't own guns, based on if they have a mental illness or a history of domestic abuse.
Radinovich: He believes that we should raise the minimum age to own a gun, and to have universal background checks, and that we should eliminate bump stocks to help curb gun violence in the U.S.
Health Care:
Stauber: He believes that we should apply free market principles to health care, and that it should be, "patient-driven and physician guided".
Radinovich: He believes that we should have a single payer, universal health care, because to him it is a human right. Also he said that with our current system too much money goes to middlemen and special interests.
Immigration:
Stauber: He believes that we need to secure our border and that their should be walls in some places. Additionally he called the Trump administration's desicon of separating children from parents at the Mexican border, "heartbreaking and an unfortunate consequence of when parents disregard the law".
Radinovich: He believes that the priority should be creating a path to citizenship for those already here illegally. Also he says he does not support president Trump's plan to build a wall at the border.
Both of the candidates stances on the issues agree with what the party's they belong to stances are on those issues.

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Minnesota District 8 is a open seat because the incumbent who held the office, Rick Nolan who's a democrat decided not to run for election.

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“MN08 Poll Memo - Radinovich Campaign Victoria Research.” Scribd, Scribd, www.scribd.com/document/389913133/MN08-Poll-Memo-Radinovich-Campaign-Victoria-Research.

“Midterm Election Poll: Minnesota's 8th District, Stauber vs. Radinovich.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 6 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn08-1.html

Porter, Sara. “Minnesota Voter Guide: Where the 8th District Candidates Stand on the Issues.” Minnesota Public Radio News, 10 Oct. 2018, www.mprnews.org/story/2018/10/10/voter-guide-minnesota-8th-district-candidates-on-issues.

“Get Involved.” Pete Stauber for Congress, petestauberforcongress.com/.

“Joe Radinovich for Congress | Minnesota 8th District.” Joe Radinovich for Congress | Minnesota 8th District, www.joeradinovich.com/.

Smith, Kelly. “Joe Radinovich, Pete Stauber Face off in Lively Debate over Northeastern Minnesota Seat in Congress.” Star Tribune, Star Tribune, 27 Oct. 2018, www.startribune.com/joe-radinovich-pete-stauber-face-off-in-lively-debate-over-northeastern-minnesota-seat-in-congress/498689411/.

“Skip Sandman for U.S. House of Representatives.” Skip Sandman for U.S House, skipsandman.com/.

“Minnesota's 8th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Minnesota%27s_8th_Congressional_District.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/140958/joe-radinovich#.W9yCxmhKieE.

Pathé, Simone. “Why Is Trump Headed to Duluth and Who Is Pete Stauber?” Roll Call, 20 June 2018, www.rollcall.com/news/trump-headed-duluth-pete-stauber.

Slater, Brady. “Radinovich Outpaces Stauber in 8th Funding.” Duluth News Tribune, 16 Oct. 2018, www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/government-and-politics/4514296-radinovich-outpaces-stauber-8th-funding.

“Ray ‘Skip’ Sandman.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Ray_%22Skip%22_Sandman. Accessed 5 Nov. 2018.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ray_%22Skip%22_Sandman

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Outside Interest groups Supporting Joe Radinovich 

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Outside Interest groups Supporting Joe Radinovich 

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The interest groups supporting Joe Radinovich from outside the state are: American Federation of State/Cnty/Munic Employees

-501c-$2,426, Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte

-PAC-$1,265,223,
bHouse Majority PAC-SuperPAC-$279,676, Duluth for Clean Water-501c-$282, Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party-PAC-$51,000,
Moveon.org-Carey-$13,970 and Progress Tomorrow-SuperPAC -$150,613, Progressive Turnout Project-PAC-$20,710

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Minnesota Interest Groups Supporting Joe Radinovich 

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Minnesota Interest Groups Supporting Joe Radinovich 

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The a a lot of interest groups that are supporting Joe Radinovich in this election. The ones from Minnesota are:

Heartland Realty Investors-$16,200, Pohlad Companies-$16,200, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers-$10,000, Alumiplate Inc-$5,400, Doran Companies-$5,400, Kaplan, Strangis & Kaplan-$5,400, QBE Insurance Group-$5,400, State of Minnesota-$3,594, University of Minnesota-$3,500, Lockridge Grindal Nauen PLLP-$3,450, Danaher-$3,400, American Mortgage-$2,700, Araz Group-$2,700, Askov Finlayson-$2,700, Capital Strategies-$2,700, Charoen Pokphand Foods-$2,700, dpHUE Inc-$2,700, Hylden Advocacy & Law-$2,700, Jeff Anderson & Assoc-$2,700, North Corp-$2,700, Optum United Health Group-$2,700, Patchwerk Studios-$2,700, Realogy Corp-$2,700, Rice Lake Construction Group-$2,700 and Rothschild North America-$2,700

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Outside Interest Groups Supporting Pete Stauber

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Outside Interest Groups Supporting Pete Stauber

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The interest groups that are supporting Pete stabber from out of stare are: America First Action-SuperPAC -$1,974,876, Congressional Leadership Fund-SuperPAC-$3,908,655,
National Federation of Independent Business-PAC-$39,296, National Rifle Assn- PAC-$188,012, Supporting Electing American Leaders-PAC-$25,375,

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 Minnesota Interest Groups Supporting Pete Stauber 

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 Minnesota Interest Groups Supporting Pete Stauber 

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Their are a multitude of interest groups that are supporting Pete Stauber in this election. The interest groups supporting Pete Stauber that are in the state are:  Hubbard broadcasting-$13,500, Rachel Contracting-$11,050, Davisco Foods International-$10,800, Miners Inc-$10,800, Primera Technology-$10,800, Eye of the Tiger PAC-$10,000, Freedom & Security PAC-$10,000, Freedom Club of America-$10,000, Great America Cmte-$10,000. Ice PAC-$10,000. Majority Cmte PAC-$10,000,More Conservatives PAC-$10,000, Prosperity Action-$10,000

Koch Industries-$7,500,

New Pioneers PAC-$7,500,

Support to Ensure Victory, Everywhere PAC-$7,500,

Ames Construction-$7,400,

Cargill Inc-$6,765,

Commodity Specialists Co-$6,000 and Marathon Petroleum-$6,000

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Joe Radinovich wants to help fix our healthcare system, support the middle class, and protect Social Security and Medicare. He wants transparency in the political process and reduce the corrupt power special interests have over the government elected officials. His stances agree with the stances that the Democratic party as a whole believes in.

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Pete Stauber is committed to protecting the second amendment or the right to bear arms. He is against abortion, and is in favor of putting individuals in charge of acquiring there own health care instead of the government.  Also like Roe Radinovich, Pete Stauber's stances agree with the stances of the Republican party.

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District eight is in northeastern MN. They have a small population of 662,354 and are 38.47% urban 61.53% rural. In the 2016 election majority of district eight voted for Trump.

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The voter registration laws for the 8th congressional district in Minnesota are: You must be a U.S citizen, you have to be at least 18 on the day of the election. You can not vote if you have had any of your voting rights denied by the law.

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In the 2016 Presidential election,  74.70% of Minnesotans voted  In the 2014 Midterm Elections, 50.5% of Minnesotans voted. This election for house will be open seat.

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In 2016 the 8th district of Minnesota mostly voted for the democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Additionally as a whole the state of Minnesota voted for Hillary Clinton.

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Pete Stauber is a member of the St. Louis County Commission, a retired police lieutenant and a former professional hockey player who played for a Detroit Red Wings minor league affiliate. He is also very conservative based on his platform and opinions on how things should be done.

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Joe Radinovich is a 32-year-old former state representative, first elected to the Minnesota House at 26. He was the campaign manager of the current representative. Joe Randinovich is liberal but is not as far to the left in the way that Stauber is far to the right.

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He is a former Green Party candidate who turned to the independence party for the 2018 election. Ray Sandman is a moderate but leans more to the liberal side on his views rather than to the right. Because he used to be in the Green Party which is situated on the right we can also see he has more liberal views. Ray Sandman has run in previous elections as a Green Party candidate.

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The president repeatedly endorsed House candidate Pete Stauber

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The link below goes to a poll prediction from the New York Times. That believes that the race will be close and is a toss up. For the poll they called 18,682 people but only 504 people spoke to them. Finally their poll margin of error is 4.6%

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Our poll shows a close race.

Our poll result is about what was expected. But remember: It's just one poll, and we talked to only 504 people. Each candidate's total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.

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Midterm Election Poll: Minnesota's 8th District, Stauber vs. Radinovich

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Our poll result is about what was expected. But remember: It's just one poll, and we talked to only 504 people. Each candidate's total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.

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The link below goes to a poll prediction from Victoria Research that believes that race in the 8th Minnesota district will be close and is a toss up. For the poll live interviewers talked to 400 people in 10-minute interviews(55% cells). Finally their margin of error for the poll was 4.9%.

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MN08 Poll Memo - Radinovich Campaign Victoria Research

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Polling conducted by the firm Victoria Research shows former State Legislator Joe Radinovich (DFL - Crosby) continues to run ahead of his Republican opponent Pete Stauber in Minnesota's 8th Congres... by FluenceMedia in Browse > Politics & Current Affairs > Politics > United States Government

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Public Opinion Poll in Favor of Pete Stauber 

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Public Opinion Poll in Favor of Pete Stauber 

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The link below is to a public opinion poll made by the New York Times. For their poll they called 19.641 people, but only 507 people actually spoke to them. Additionally, they have a 4.6% percent margin of error, and from their poll they have predicted Pete Stauber as the winner.

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Pete Stauber, the Republican candidate, leads our poll.

Our poll is a good result for Republicans. It's just one poll, though.

About the race

is a 32-year-old former state representative, first elected to the Minnesota House at 26. He was the campaign manager of the current representative. 37% favorable rating; 34% unfavorable; 29% don't know

is a member of the St. Louis County Commission, a retired police lieutenant and a former college hockey star. He played for a Detroit Red Wings minor league affiliate. 47% favorable rating; 23% unfavorable; 30% don't know

This union-heavy and mostly white working-class district covers one of the most reliably Democratic areas of the 20th century.

No battleground district swung more from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Republicans, on the defensive in so much of the country, have one of their best pick-up opportunities here.

We polled this district Sept. 6-9, showing a close race.

Just 23 percent of adults have a college degree, and 94 percent of eligible voters are white.

It's generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:

How our poll result changed

As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.

One reason we're doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.

But sampling error is not the only type of error in a poll.

Our turnout model

There's a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It's a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.

To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.

Our poll under different turnout scenarios

Just because one candidate leads in all of these different turnout scenarios doesn't mean much by itself. They don't represent the full range of possible turnout scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.

The types of people we reached

Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn't capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.

People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.

How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters

Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

Here, we're weighting by age, estimated party, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.

But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn't weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton's standing as a result.

Here are other common ways to weight a poll:

Our poll under different weighting schemes

Our poll result

Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls

Don't weight by education, like many polls in 2016

Don't weight by estimated party, like most public polls

Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn't mean much by itself. They don't represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.

Undecided voters

About 13 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Democrats.

They are not numerous enough to change the lead in our poll by themselves. But they - and others - could change their minds. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative.)

What different types of voters said

Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don't overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.

Other districts where we've completed polls

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Midterm Election Poll: Minnesota's 8th District, Stauber vs. Radinovich

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This union-heavy and mostly white working-class district covers one of the most reliably Democratic areas of the 20th century.

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Ray Sandman, the Independence Party candidate, wants to increase taxes on the wealthy, and use that money to fund college and healthcare for everyone. Ray wants to ban assault rifles in the U.S.. Aligning   with his Green Party beliefs, he also wants to increase environmental law to protect our land.