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IN6021 Module Reading in Relation to Research Topic

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IN6021 Module Reading in Relation to Research Topic

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Reasons for Using a Mixed Methods Design 

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Reasons for Using a Mixed Methods Design 

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Methodological Choice - quantitative, qualitative or both
Focus of Research - exploratory, descriptive, explanatory, evaluative or a combination
Research Strategies - survey archival and documentary research, case study, ethnography, action research, grounded theory and narrative inquiry.

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Ontology refers to assumptions about the nature of reality. These shape the way in which you see and study your research objects.

Epistemology refers to assumptions about knowledge, what constitutes acceptable, valid and legitimate knowledge, and how we can communicate knowledge to others.

Axiology refers to the role of values and ethics.One of the key axiological choices that you will face as a researcher is the extent to which you wish to view the impact of your own values and beliefs on your research as a positive thing.

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Quantitative research – refers to research that is concerned with quantities and measurements - answers the how questions

Qualitative research - is linked to in-depth exploratory studies - answers the why questions

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Historical Research: based on past events - look at events that have occurred as a result of climate change

Action Research: a particular problem the researcher wants to solve or understand better - can public/private risk management mechanisms be used to make flood risk insurable

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Uncertainties and their interaction in flood hazard assessment with climate change

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Uncertainties and their interaction in flood hazard assessment with climate change

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Flood severity across Europe: How a changing climate impacts on regions

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Flood severity across Europe: How a changing climate impacts on regions

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Dr Conor Murphy has collaborated with a multinational research team in the largest-scale study of its kind that has demonstrated the impact of climate change on the severity of flooding across Europe.

The largest-scale study of its kind by a multinational research team has demonstrated the impact of climate change on the severity of flooding across Europe.

The study - published in the journal Nature - was led by the Vienna University of Technology and involved research institutions and academics in 24 European countries, including Dr Conor Murphy, of the Department of Geography and ICARUS at Maynooth University.

The study, which looked at river flow data from thousands of locations over a 50-year period, found that flood events are becoming increasingly severe in north-western Europe, including Ireland, but decreasing in size in southern and eastern Europe.

This ranges from an 11% increase in flood levels in northern England and southern Scotland to a 23% reduction in parts of Russia and eastern Europe, with the researchers saying their findings provide the clearest evidence yet, at the European scale, of the link between climate change and flooding.

Link to climate change

It had long been suspected that human-induced climate change was having an impact on the magnitude of floods because a warmer atmosphere can store more water, though this is not the only factor leading to flood changes in a warming world.

However, until now, the extent to which climate change affects the severity of floods across Europe had not been clear because previous studies have been on a smaller scale due to a lack of access to data from parts of the continent.
But, thanks to a large-scale European collaboration involving almost 50 scientists from 35 institutions in 24 countries, the new study has been able to draw upon a huge amount of data, with the researchers analysing records from 3,738 flood measurement stations across Europe from the period 1960 to 2010.

Dr Conor Murphy of Maynooth University's Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), said: "This timely study adds to a growing body of evidence which shows that flood magnitude has increased in northwest Europe, including Ireland, over the last five decades.

"We show this is part of a continent-wide pattern of changes in flooding which is in line with what we may expect in a warming world. This highlights the importance of long-term hydrological monitoring and the benefits of data sharing and collaboration at a European scale in order to better understand the mechanisms behind observed changes in flooding."

The lead author, Professor Günter Blöschl of the Vienna University of Technology, said: "We already knew that climate change is shifting the timing of floods in a year, but the key question had been, 'Does climate change also control the magnitude of flood events?'. Our study finds there are consistent patterns of flood change across Europe and these are in line with predicted climate change impacts, such as a contrast between increasing flooding in the north and decreases in the south."

Regional differences
The evaluation of data from the measurement stations over the 50-year period studied revealed growing trends in different regions of Europe.

In north-western Europe, floods are increasing because flood generating rainfall (annual maximum seven day rainfall totals), is increasing and soils are becoming wetter. The largest increases are evident for northern England and southern Scotland, but across Britain and Ireland as a whole flood magnitudes have been increasing at a rate of about 5% per decade since the 1960s.

In southern Europe, on the other hand, flood levels tend to decrease, as climate change results in declining precipitation and higher temperatures cause increased evaporation of water in the soil. However, for small Mediterranean rivers, floods may be becoming larger due to more frequent thunderstorms and land management changes such as deforestation.

In Eastern Europe, flood levels are also decreasing, which is due to shallower snow packs in winter associated with the higher temperatures.

Future trends
If the trends in changing severity of flooding continue into the future, major increases in flood risk can be expected in many regions of Europe. With the total annual bill from flood damage - estimated to be $100 billion worldwide - continuing to rise, along with the devastating impact on communities, the researchers advised policymakers to include their findings in their flood management strategies.

Increasing flood discharges imply that, five decades ago the 100-year flood discharge - often used to design flood defences and critical infrastructure, is now likely to be exceeded on average more often than once in 100 years. In north-western Europe, what was the 100-year flood discharge in 1960 has now typically become a 50- to 80-year flood discharge, potentially making levels of protection offered by existing flood defense structures less safe.

Dr Murphy said: "Flood management must adapt to the realities of our changing climate and associated flood risk over the coming decades. Incorporating the evidence of increasing flood risk into engineering design and general flood management would ensure we are better prepared for future changes".

The Nature publication will be available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1495-6 which will go live after the embargo expires.
ENDS

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Flood severity across Europe: How a changing climate impacts on

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Dr Conor Murphy has collaborated with a multinational research team in the largest-scale study of its kind that has demonstrated the impact of climate change on the severity of flooding across Europe. The largest-scale study of its kind by a multinational research team has demonstrated the impact of climate change on the severity of flooding across Europe.

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While on a study break I went into my kitchen to make a cup of tea. My mam was watching the Today Show and I heard flooding in Ireland being mentioned. I listened to the remainder of the discussion which showed shocking images of parts of Ireland that could be under water by 2030. This was a very interesting discussion and a similar topic to my proposed research question. I listened for the speakers name, Dr Rowan Fealy and found him on Maynooth University's website. At a quick glance his research looks very interesting and could be very beneficial in my search for literature. This accidental encounter may be a case of the right place at the right time and I hope to spend more time looking for more information that could be of benefit to me.

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[ARCHIVED CONTENT] UK Government Web Archive - The National Archives

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This Page is [ARCHIVED CONTENT] and shows what the site page https://ukcop26.org/ looked like on 1 Apr 2023 at 05:49:04

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Thoughts After Completing My Supervisor Proposal

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Thoughts After Completing My Supervisor Proposal

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Thoughts After Completing Supervisor Proposal

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https://www.artemis.bm/deal-directory/

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Artemis.bm - The Catastrophe Bond, Insurance Linked Securities & Investment, Reinsurance Capital, Alternative Risk Transfer and Weather Risk Management site

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Catastrophe Bond & Insurance-Linked Securities Deal Directory - Artemis.bm

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ARTEMIS Catastrophe Bond Deal Directory; details of insurance-linked security and catastrophe bond transactions.

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- Identify
- Evaluate
- Explore
- Formulate

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- It lays out what research has been done by others relevant to your research aim/objectives.
- It presents the work of others in a clear, interesting and progressive manner.
- It provides evidence of of in-depth critical evaluation.
- It highlights pertinent/emerging issues.
- It cites a variety of relevant sources properly.

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Issue: Flood risk in Ireland as a consequence of climate change.

Question: Can the creation of a public private risk transfer mechanism help to alleviate flood risk in Ireland as a consequence of climate change

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1. Make doing a literature review an ongoing process.
2. Read quite a few good relevant reviews.
3. Begin to compile citations with abstracts.
4. Read abstracts and cull all irrelevant articles.
5. Assess whether you need to dig deeper or broaden your review.
6. Systematically log, sort, organise and annotate each relevant articles.
7. Develop the arguments that will drive your literature review.
8. Write purposefully and use the literature to back up your arguments.
9. Adopt an appropriate style and tone.
10.  Get plenty of feedback.

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Flood Insurance Regimes and Climate Change

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Flood Insurance Regimes and Climate Change

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The robustness of flood insurance regimes given changing riskresulting from climate change

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Flood insurance schemes and climate adaptation in developing countries

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Flood insurance schemes and climate adaptation in developing countries

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The impact of climate change on the UK insurance sector

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The impact of climate change on the UK insurance sector

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How insurance companies can prepare for risk from climate change

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How insurance companies can prepare for risk from climate change

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Climate change = insurance risk

The escalating frequency and severity of extreme weather-related events-from wildfires in the US, to record heat waves in Europe, to floods in Japan-have shone a brighter regulatory spotlight on insurance risk and climate change. One federal regulator in the US went so far as to suggest that the potential damage from climate change could end up being as severe as the fallout from the mortgage crisis triggering the 2008 financial crisis.

In fact, the Insurance Regulator State of Climate Risks Survey, conducted by the Deloitte Center for Financial Services, found:

A majority of US state insurance regulators expect all types of insurance companies' climate change risks to increase over the medium to long term-including physical risks, liability risks, and transition risks.

More than half of the regulators surveyed also indicated that climate change was likely to have a high impact or an extremely high impact on coverage availability and underwriting assumptions.

US state regulators and lawmakers are watching the implications of climate-related risks very carefully and are becoming increasingly concerned about the insurance industry's response to climate change.

With losses mounting, insurers can no longer avoid or postpone addressing the impact of changing climate on their underwriting, pricing, and investment decisions, as well as their bottom lines.

There's no doubt that more information-through more effective disclosure-would help regulators assess the effectiveness of insurer actions to mitigate insurance risk due to climate change. And that could very well be the starting point of increased climate risk regulations.

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Insurance Companies Prepare for Risk from Climate Change

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The escalating frequency and severity of extreme weather-related events-from wildfires in the US, to record heat waves in Europe, to floods in Japan-have shone a brighter regulatory spotlight on insurance risk and climate change.

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1. Identifying issues/opportunities
2. Exploring what is known and what needs to be known
3. Knowledge through literature

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Wildfires - California, Australia
Flooding =Ireland, UK, Louisiana
Hurricanes = Florida
Melting Ice Caps
Rising Sea Levels

Question - how do these events impact the insurance industry?

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- What the study is about
- Why it's original
- Why it's important
- How you will undertake the research

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The effects of climate change are here. Stronger and more frequent natural disasters, for example, are destroying homes and businesses at record-breaking rates and putting entire food systems at risk. Hurricane Harvey caused $125 billion in economic damage in 2017. The 2019-20 Australian bushfires killed more than a billion animals and caused more than $4.4 billion in damage. Climate-linked issues, such as extreme heat, natural disasters, and biodiversity loss-and the failure to respond to these challenges in time-dominate reports issued by organizations such as the World Economic Forum. Further changes in the global climate are locked in for at least the next ten years, and insurers' concerns are no longer individual catastrophic events but the interactions between the global climate and human systems.

At first glance, the effects of climate change may not seem detrimental to property and casualty (P&C) insurers. They can use the annual policy cycle and their sophisticated understanding of evolving risks to reprice and rearrange portfolios to avoid long-term exposure to climate events. And the growth in the value at risk-and possibly volatility-should increase the demand for new and different insurance solutions and services, which, in turn, could expand the industry's opportunities.

Insurers, however, must be careful not to underestimate the true threat of climate change. Because its effects are systemic, climate risk is likely to stress local economies and-more grimly-cause market failures that affect both consumers and insurers. More frequent catastrophic events, in combination with the need to meet evolving regulatory requirements, can threaten company business models-and make insuring some risk unaffordable for customers or unfeasible for insurers.

Stakeholders -such as customers, shareholders, and regulators-are therefore likely to demand that insurance solutions go beyond traditional risk transfer to explicitly address risk mitigation. These risks can be either physical, directly affecting the insurance business, or transitional, affecting insurers' portfolios as assets are repriced. Insurers should seize this moment to stress-test their exposure to climate risk and rebalance their portfolios. Perhaps more importantly, insurers should use their understanding of risk to help organizations mitigate and adapt-and thus protect a greater share of the global economy. In particular, the industry should develop products that cover climate-related risk specifically and should revisit its (potentially carbon-intensive) investment strategies. The effects of climate change are already here, and efforts to respond at scale will take time. With the long-term viability of the industry at stake, insurers should act now.

Pervasive risk requires new responses

Evidence is mounting that the P&C insurance industry will soon need to reshape its business models, but only a few stakeholders have taken meaningful action: several insurers are incorporating climate-risk considerations in their new-product launches and underwriting processes. Some others have publicly committed to reducing their exposure to carbon-intensive industries by 2030 or 2040. In recent interactions with industry executives, more than half have said that the industry's response so far has been underwhelming and inadequate-even though the vast majority said that responding to climate risk is either "very important" or "a top priority." The industry has an opportunity to develop a response that reacts to the shifts driven by climate change while broadening the relevance of the industry from risk mitigation via risk transfer.

McKinsey research shows that the value at stake from climate-induced hazards could, conservatively, increase from about 2 percent of global GDP to more than 4 percent of global GDP in 2050. And the risks associated with climate change are multiplying. They vary by locale, evolve, and have nonlinear systemic effects that tend to be regressive. In short, a small physical shift can change entire systems irreversibly-and, vulnerable populations could be affected disproportionately (for more on physical climate risk, see sidebar "Seven crucial traits of physical climate risk").

The projected escalation of climate risk, such as the occurrence of more floods and wildfires, may lead to underinsurance-or to no insurance at all. The result, substantial market dislocation will include premium loss, higher rates of self-insurance, and an increased demand for disaster relief from the public sector (for more on market dislocation, see sidebar "Florida flooding and insurance market failures").

Some insurers may feel protected from the escalating effects so far. However, this is a false sense of safety: while climate risk can change quickly, revisions to policies that are based only on historical data may not reflect the full cost of climate risk. Indeed, common catastrophe models, which are mostly based on historical data, are unlikely to accurately project risk because the climate now behaves differently. These models may end up hiding the true extent of the risk for both the insurers and the insured. As a result, the two parties' interests are consistently misaligned. And for insurers, changes in the climate-and therefore the market-will only increase their exposure. Consider the following:

As the frequency and severity of tail events-formerly thought to be low probability-increase, so do changes to the balance sheet, including higher capital requirements for reinsurance consumption.

Financial markets can rapidly reprice assets that are exposed to climate risk, affecting insurers' investment portfolios and their own market valuations negatively.

Investors, regulators, and society will increase pressure on the industry to respond to climate risk as large portions of the economy and society continue to be affected.

Some historically stable premium and profit pools will shrink, and possibly disappear, in places and industries that are exposed to climate risk while assets will become harder to insure.

A lack of responsiveness can damage the industry's reputation and its credibility as a global economic citizen.

Ignoring these considerations will be untenable in the long term.

Revised business models help support customers

The insurance industry can create economic security by offering reliable protection. Insurers must therefore make climate risk a part of their management decisions. In particular, they should use their understanding of risk and climate science to mitigate the systemic effects of physical climate risk for themselves and their customers. Accomplishing these tasks involves five simultaneous actions.

Stress-test total exposure against projected climate hazards

Interconnected global systems mean that the concentration of risk will likely increase as climate-related losses spread across different types of coverage-flood, property damage, and business interruption. Aggregation risk-the risk of multiple claims filed in connection to a single event-will also extend beyond geographic bounds as climate change elevates the risk of systemic disruption. For instance, an increase in average global temperatures increases the probability of floods and wildfires-regardless of location.

Moreover, insurers' current models may not account for the growing number, types, and interconnectivity of risk-particularly in locations that have low penetration of property insurance, such as countries with developing economies. Preliminary findings from the Bank of England suggest that the industry is failing to capture the full spectrum of potential losses, such as a flood after a hurricane, and that it uses low-quality data.

To understand their risk exposure to climate change, insurers may consider adopting climate-specific stress-testing, beyond traditional catastrophe models, to understand the impact of climate-related risk on their portfolios. Insurers can accomplish this task by using advanced-analytics techniques to project how various acute and chronic hazards are likely to affect them over time. Insurers should combine detailed climate data, down to the risk of a flood or fire for a single address, with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of climate change to inform pricing and portfolio adjustments.

Build resilience and rebalance portfolios

With such a detailed analysis, insurers can build greater resilience by considering low-probability catastrophic events, diversifying their portfolio, and planning to evolve exposure over time. Risk models that assume nonstationary risk and de-emphasize historical data will be especially valuable.

As "traders of climate risk," insurance companies fare better in understanding and measuring the impact of climate risk on their financial resilience when compared with other sectors. However, the industry's current loss estimates are incomplete because of insufficient consideration of secondary perils. In the broader financial services industry, many institutions, from banks to asset managers, that have historically been less exposed-and therefore less-sophisticated assessors of climate risk-have begun to incorporate climate risk into their considerations of investment allocations, credit risk, and financial resilience.

Help organizations mitigate climate risk

Insurers have long helped customers mitigate risk. They should now also focus on mitigating and even preventing physical climate risk. This commitment requires shifting business models away from transactional risk transfers and indemnity payments and toward scaling existing incentives-such as rebates for using resilient construction materials-toward direct partnerships with end customers. These relationships should focus on risk engineering (managing and avoiding risk) and risk mitigation. A major part of this shift will be focused on preventing customers from incurring damage and having to make claims. For example, one North American insurer gives its homeowners insurance customers access to wildfire-defense services to help them with prevention and mitigation measures. Services include relocating valuables and deploying certified fire professionals to homes if a wildfire is approaching. Adjusting premiums to individual behaviors may also become more common.

Similarly, insurers could work with the public sector to improve building standards and policies; an analysis of risk models may suggest limits to building in flood-prone areas, for example. Insurers will need to collaborate with governments to provide affordable coverage and adapt to evolving risks-as some insurers, particularly in the United Kingdom, have begun to do (for more on the social role insurance could play, see sidebar "Contributing to the public conversation on climate risk").

Create innovative products to address climate-related risk

Insurers have an opportunity to offer innovative solutions to cover newer and more frequent hazards, both acute (such as wildfires) and chronic (such as reduced crop yields). Solutions could be as straightforward as parametric pricing-insuring policy holders against events of a set magnitude instead of insuring the value of losses. Whatever the details of the solutions, long-standing actuarial approaches to risk modeling will need to evolve as climate risk changes.

To identify new exposures and market opportunities, insurers need to understand the consequences and knock-on effects of specific climate hazards within the context of different sectors and geographic areas. As adviser-partners, insurers might deploy new solutions to protect customers from such events. Insurers should also explore ways to better protect businesses from the effects of systemic catastrophes, such as heat waves that reduce crop yield, kill livestock, or limit outdoor working hours.

In addition, insurers could play a role in matching risk-transfer solutions to alternative capital from investors with more risk appetite. For instance, the World Bank convened multiple investors, including a hedge fund and a reinsurance company, to insure a Uruguayan electric-power company against drought (which would cripple hydroelectric production) and high oil prices (which would make power generation costly). Similarly, some industry stakeholders have explored ways to provide catastrophe-specific coverage without geographic limitation, such as global wildfire coverage.

Revise investment strategies

Insurers should reevaluate their investment-allocation strategies as the economy transitions toward long-term decarbonization, which may cause rapid asset repricing and portfolio volatility, particularly for carbon-intensive investments. Insurers should also systematically evaluate the combined exposure of their investment and underwriting portfolios to physical climate risk, especially where both assets and liabilities could be affected. For instance, the oil and gas industry is exposed to both transitional risk and physical risk. Less-liquid asset classes that were appealing in an environment of sustained low-interest rates, such as real estate, are also exposed to climate risk. Reviewing investment- and underwriting-portfolio exposure simultaneously is currently uncommon for the industry, but it will be increasingly important as climate risk increases.

Insurers should also consider the environmental impact of their investments, just as banks and asset managers are doing, and follow a plan to shift significant portions of their portfolios toward supporting a sustainable, decarbonized economy. In addition to long-term benefits, this shift will help insurers demonstrate their proactive compliance, as regulators may enact policies and incentives that can affect the investments financial-services companies make toward their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) footprint.

The P&C insurance industry should change its business model in response to climate risk. Not only can this proactive response better protect customers in the long term, but it can also help safeguard the interests of society and serve the foundational purpose of the insurance industry. But insurers must act quickly-the window for an effective response is limited.

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Climate change and P&C insurance: The threat and opportunity

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The effects of climate change are here. Stronger and more frequent natural disasters, for example, are destroying homes and businesses at record-breaking rates and putting entire food systems at risk. Hurricane Harvey caused $125 billion in economic damage in 2017. The 2019-20 Australian bushfires killed more than a billion animals and caused more than $4.4 billion in damage.

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- Title
- Background
- Research question(s) - aims and objectives
- Method
- Timescale
- Resources
- References

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- Originality
- Importance
-  Availability of Literature
- Data Access
- Resource Access
- Data Collection
- Analysis Capabilities
- Personal Attraction

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Techniques for Generating and Refining Research Ideas

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Techniques for Generating and Refining Research Ideas

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Criteria to Devise Useful Research Objectives

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Criteria to Devise Useful Research Objectives

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Characteristics of the Traditional Structure

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Characteristics of the Traditional Structure

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1. Abstract
2. Introduction
3. Literature review
4. Method
5. Findings/ Results
6. Discussion
7. Conclusions
8. References
9. Appendices

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- Create a structure for writing
- Set goals and achieve them
- Commence a new writing session by reviewing your previous session
- Keep a backup of work

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Topics I enjoyed studying in past modules

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Topics I enjoyed studying in past modules

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- Evolving/emerging insurance risks
- Climate change
- The use of genetic information in insurance
- Human rights
- Health insurance

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My Thoughts as I Begin My Research Journal

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My Thoughts as I Begin My Research Journal