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Region is most vulnerable to climate change and therefore a top priority to most nations in the AOR. Very real chance of continued natural disasters. (I would recommend combining with natural disasters)

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Taiwan holds an important position in the global economy -  it is a top player in the world’s information and communication technology industry (e.g., microchips) and a major supplier of goods across the industrial spectrum. Per the WTO, Taiwan was the 15th largest exporter and 18th largest importer of merchandise in 2020. It’s geographically located along the busiest (and strategically critical) sea and air transportation routes that connect NE Asia (ROK & JPN) with the SCS, Oceania, India, and the Middle East.

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Due to the lack of relatively intangible borders within cyberspace, and since attack vectors are freely available and have a low cost of entry, non-state actors can easily challenge large organizations and nation-states by attacking them for financial, terrorist, or ideological reasons. A nation-state can also employ state or non-state actors against its adversaries for cyber espionage and disrupt critical infrastructures (including C2) with outcomes similar to kinetic attacks.

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Three main categories of U.S. interests in the SCS where successful PRC efforts could have a serious impact. (1) Economic – ^33% of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion; 40% of East Asian trade (incl. ^40% of PRC trade; ^90% of petroleum imports by PRC, JPN, & ROK; ^6% of US trade); vital LOCs for US & allied military transits between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. (2) Defense ties (& credibility) with allies and partners (treaty partners – JPN, ROK, PHL, THA, AUS, & NZ; formal partners – SIN & TWN; formal SCAs – VNM, IDO, & MYS). (3) Implications for the global balance of power/influence and effects upon RBIO in place since WW2.

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US key interests are: defending U.S. sovereignty and the sovereignty of allies; maintaining flexibility for global power projection; ensuring FoN & FoO; and maintaining a rules-based regional order that ensures continued access to the Arctic for legitimate civilian, commercial, and military purposes. The principal threats to US interests are from RUS & PRC. RUS seeks economic growth via the Northern Sea Route and the elevation of its “sovereignty and territorial integrity” via the remilitarization of its Arctic frontier. PRC seeks to develop Artic shipping routes as part of its Polar Silk Road, and expanded “resource exploration and exploitation” in the region (esp. in Greenland & Iceland).

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The NDS/NMS state that one of the ways we will achieve a free and open INDO-Pacific is through a constellation of partners.  Since this is explicit guidance any campaign plan we produce must include a line(s) of effort to strengthen and attract partnerships. 

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The NDS/NMS state that one of the ways we will achieve a free and open INDO-Pacific is through a constellation of partners.  Since this is explicit guidance any campaign plan we produce must include a line(s) of effort to strengthen and attract partnerships. 

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Ultimately there are three possible departures from the (unsustainable?) status quo for the peninsula: 1. Peaceful re-unification, 2. DPRK collapse, 3. War.  The INDOPACOM theater strategy must have contingency plans to account for all three.  Additionally, INDOPACOM actions may accelerate or decelerate that timeline based on approach.   

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Ultimately there are three possible departures from the (unsustainable?) status quo for the peninsula: 1. Peaceful re-unification, 2. DPRK collapse, 3. War.  The INDOPACOM theater strategy must have contingency plans to account for all three.  Additionally, INDOPACOM actions may accelerate or decelerate that timeline based on approach.   

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Chinese invasion of Taiwan represents one of the most dangerous and arguably most likely scenarios we could have to face. As referenced in the scenario, Taiwan is a major economic powerhouse and maintaining the status quo is clearly in the US interest. Failing to protect Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion to force reunification would have significant negative impacts to our allies and partner network in the AOR.

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If the DES/vision is a free and open Indo-Pacific, then SCS expansion is a very likely threat to the DES. Additionally, there is a tangled mess of countries that could become involved over a potential territorial dispute. Though maybe not one of the most dangerous problems, Chinese expansion in SCS remains a thorn in our side, but also provides opportunities to work with likeminded allies/partners to oppose China.

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Per the scenario - Chinese and Indian trade is healthy, but there is an emerging security rivalry between them in the military realm.  This is an opportunity we should exploit to balance against Chinese economic and military power in the region (assuming we share similar interests with the Indians).

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DPRK remains a wild card with their erratic missile tests and expanding nuclear program. I don't see nuclear war as a likely problem, but it clearly has potential for devastating impacts if hostilities ensue and the DPRK regime feels threatened. We need to ensure we don't let DPRK slip out of our cross-check as it is one of the Big 5 security threats in higher level strategic documents.

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I believe coalition management is extremely important in this theater for ensuring access, basing, and overflight (ABO). We should look to work with our State Dept reps and other interagency partners to ensure we maintain good relations. Our plans will be foiled without coalition/ally/partner support and host nation basing agreements.

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If the DES/vision is a free and open Indo-Pacific, then PRC expansion is a very likely threat to the DES.  Additionally, there is a tangled mess of countries that could become involved over a potential territorial dispute.  Though maybe not one of the most dangerous problems, Chinese expansion remains a thorn in our side, but also provides opportunities to work with likeminded allies/partners to oppose China.

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Like the SCS and Taiwan, the ECS is situated along a major global transportation route that links American allies with the rest of Asia, the Indian Ocean, and the Middle East. The Senkaku Islands are at the middle of a three-way territorial dispute among the PRC, JPN, and TWN, where JPN currently has physical and administrative control. PAFMM, CCG, and PLAN have been known to traverse and intrude into the area occasionally, and the PRC recently extended their ADIZ to overlap with JPN’s over the islands. The area possesses large, mostly untapped natural gas deposits and fishery resources. The islands are one of the major factors for JPN’s increasing investments in its defense capabilities.

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In addition to being a treaty ally w/the US, Japan possess the third largest economy on Earth. It has two major territorial disputes with other IP nations – PRC over the Senkakus and RUS over the Kuriles. As a strategic location for US basing in NE Asia, the DPRK has habitually tested ballistic missiles over, through/into, & near JPN’s airspace and EEZ. PRC & RUS have also recently been conducting combined joint exercises near JPN, and increasing their ADIZ incursions (though not to the same level as w/TWN). JPN is also one of the principal security cooperation providers for SCS states as Tokyo seeks to counter the PRC’s SCS efforts.

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Russian involvement in the IP is broad: “strategic partner” of the PRC; Arctic operations; territorial claims vs. JPN; supplier of mil hardware to several nations in the AOR (e.g., IND, VNM, PAK, etc.); affordable energy supplier to many states; ADIZ and FON incursions against ROK, JPN, and the US; to name a few. Its willingness to resort to military aggression against its neighbors and desire to expand its boundaries and area of influence are well documented. If the Ukraine issue can be closed (hopefully to the benefit of Kiev and the West) and a more friendly regime is in power, RUS can also be a potential opportunity vs. PRC in the IP region - a reverse Nixon goes to China scenario.

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Per the 2022 CMPR, the PRC views US alliances and partnerships in the AOR as "destabilizing and irreconcilable" with the PRC's sovereignty, security, and development and which constrains its rise. Hence, the PRC via diplomacy and informational tools seeks to erode and subvert US-backed alliances/partnerships and to develop an alternative system of "strategic partnerships." Beijing often frames such US alliances disruptive and as threats to regional stability.

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Space-based capabilities impact many day-to-day aspects of the American way of life. These capabilities enable functions that affect our homes, transportation, electric power grids, banking systems, and our global communications. Space systems also enable the United States and our allies to project combat power to areas of conflict and instability and allow our armed forces to collect vital intelligence on foreign threats, to navigate and maneuver rapidly, and to communicate with each other anywhere around the globe to ensure our security and quick response to international military and humanitarian crises. Adversaries have observed more than 30 years of U.S. military operations supported by space systems and are now seeking ways to expand their own capabilities and deny the U.S. a space-enabled advantage. China and Russia, in particular, are developing various means to exploit the perceived U.S. reliance on space-based systems and challenge the U.S. position in the space domain. Through the use of space and counterspace capabilities, they aspire to undercut U.S. global leadership. As China’s and Russia’s space and counterspace capabilities increase, both nations are integrating space scenarios into their military exercises. They continue to develop, test, and proliferate sophisticated antisatellite (ASAT) weapons to hold U.S. and allied space assets at risk.

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I believe Japan is the most important ally in the AOR, especially when viewed in the context of opposing China and DPRK. Japan has a capable military and strategic basing locations for operations in NE Asia. I think we need to ensure this partnership is rock-solid going forward.

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India is the regional balancing power that the US will want to be friends/partners/Allies with versus competitors. As the largest democracy in the world India fights to maintain its autonomy and keep outside influence at bay (to include other democracies) but its Act East Policy(2014) opened several doors to regional opportunities including Australia, Japan, and several ASEAN countries. With the water rights issues at the land borders and the BRI and String of Pearls spanning the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) China has encircled India causing much concern for its security making US relations, among others, more palatable.
-Nuclear-
India is in cooperation with Japanese have advanced its program and technology under their “Special Strategic Global Partnership” status.
-Economic-
80% of global trade passes through the IOR (the  Northern passage drops this somewhat). India in 2022 had become a favored location for manufacturing and labor due to costs and the size of the market.
India is beholden to China as its largest trading partner and roughly 55% of India’s trade ~$5T passes through the SCS.
-Partnerships-
Militarily India was very aligned with Russia as a way to offset U.S. influence in the region (specifically with Pakistan) leading up to the Cold War. From 2018 - 2022 regular exercises with QUAD members took place throughout the SCS and IOR.
Cooperation among regional middle powers (AUS, JPN, KR) will be instrumental.

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Japan’s relationship with India could be the cornerstone of a larger coalition of like-minded countries. Japan is providing advancements in the following: peaceful uses of nuclear energy, industrial development, space, science, agriculture, forestry, transportation, and urban development.

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HADR events gives the US and other countries an opportunity to work together in a non-threatening manner as well as build relations with the nation affected. China has seen this over the years and are starting to see the opportunity to create footholds in places under these auspicious. Could present issues and increased competition in the future.

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HADR events in the Pacific "Rim of Fire" are more numerous in this AOR than anywhere else on earth.  There will absolutely be continuing opportunities to leverage international aid and response to these disasters.  Typhoons, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc. all allow access vectors for various instruments of state and military activities while highlighting active commitment to the governments and populations of the region in a non-threatening manner.

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HADR events in the Pacific "Rim of Fire" are more numerous in this AOR than anywhere else on earth.  There will absolutely be continuing opportunities to leverage international aid and response to these disasters.  Typhoons, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc. all allow access vectors for various instruments of state and military activities while highlighting active commitment to the governments and populations of the region in a non-threatening manner.

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As the PRC expands its alliances/partnerships in the Pacific it erodes US military and diplomatic strength in the region. This undermines our ability to maintain the global commons and potentially cuts off allies because the PRC will control critical islands or points along sea lines of communication. for example- recent PRC diplomatic success with Solomon Islands has the potential to disrupt SLOCs between USA and Australia. 

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As the PRC expands its alliances/partnerships in the Pacific it erodes US military and diplomatic strength in the region. This undermines our ability to maintain the global commons and potentially cuts off allies because the PRC will control critical islands or points along sea lines of communication. for example- recent PRC diplomatic success with Solomon Islands has the potential to disrupt SLOCs between USA and Australia. 