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Table 3 compares both geometric and exponential projection methods for the county in 2030 and 2050 using the 2010 census population data as the base population and the 2010-2020 rate of change as the predicting variable. The geometric projection for 2030 shows a population that is around 97 thousand more than what was recorded in 2010 and 55 thousand more people than in 2020. These values are large but seem realistic based of the growth from 2010 to 2020. On the other hand, the exponential projection for 2030 was only moderately higher, calculating around 116 thousand more people compared to 2010 and around 74 thousand more people compared to 2020.  However, when projecting into 2050, the difference between geometric and exponential projections was much higher, with the exponential population calculating around 68 thousand more people. This means that when projecting far into the future, using 2010 as a base population might exacerbate the trend of higher exponential projections due to compounding growth.

Table 4 depicts the population predictions for 2030 and 2050 using the 2020 census population data as the base population and the 2010-2020 rate of change as the predicting variable. Geometric projections for 2030 and 2050 were the same as in Table 3, when 2010 was used as the base population. This reveals these numbers represent a stable lower bound in which the current Utah population could realistically grow to if it kept up its current growth. On the other hand, the exponential projections were lower than in Table 3 by a range of 10 to 20 thousand people. This suggests that when using 2020 as the base population, you get a lower and thus more realistic exponential projection as the upper bounds of the future Washington County population.

Overall Washington Couty, Utah seems that it will continue to have a growing population due to its favorable conditions. Historically, it has been a town with many booms and busts, with the exceptionally large growth and fall of silver mining, cotton and grape farming, and dam resilience. Since white settlers it has been a place for American economic experimentation, and eventually became directed by the Church of Latter-day Saints. Today, its strong Mormon Community maintains the high number of young families, while its ecotourism and famous golf courses invite increasingly more seasonal residents (Utah Historical Society 2025). Even though Utah is one of the youngest states (in terms of population age) in county, the growth projections for 2050 tell us they might need to start investing resources in a bigger aging population (Miller 2023).

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Figure 1. Map of Utah highlighting Washington County. Adapted from Washington County by Utah Division of State History (n.d.), I Love History. Retrieved April 30, 2025, from https://ilovehistory.utah.gov/washington-county/

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The formulas used to find rates of change and percentage rates of change across the census data populations of each geographic area are defined by:

r = (Pt2/Pt1 – 1)

r = (Pt2/Pt1 – 1) X 100%

Where Pt1 is the first time period and Pt2 is the second time period. In this case, each time period represents a decennial census year, and this equation divides the later census year by the earlier one. This equation assumes that rate of change over 10 years is equally divided across those years.

Geometric projection is defined by the equation:

Pt+n = Pt (1 + r)n

Where Pt+n is the population of the year being projected to, Pt is the population of the year of which the rate of change is computed from, r is the rate of change, and n indicates the number of time periods (in this case census years) being projected forward. Geometric projection is a conservative estimate, meaning that it assumes that the population will change by a set rate between time periods and divided equally by each year, which is a quite linear estimate.

Exponential projection is defined by the equation:

Pt+n = Pt er*n

Where Pt+n, Pt, n, and r hold the same definitions as in geometric projection, and “e” is a constant derived from the base of the natural logarithm and exponential functions, with an approximate value of 2.71828. Exponential projection assumes that growth is compounded across each year, the growth rate is applied continuously, and assumes no upper limit as a result of unlimited resources and no external constraints on population growth.

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Figure 2. Sightseers in Zion National Park, date unknown. From Utah Division of State History (n.d.), I Love History. Retrieved April 30, 2025, from https://ilovehistory.utah.gov/washington-county/

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Figure 3. Golfer at Green Spring Golf Course, Washington, Utah. From Tripadvisor (n.d.). Green Spring Golf Course. Retrieved April 30, 2025, from https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Attraction_Review-g57161-d207590-Reviews-Green_Spring_Golf_Course-Washington_Utah.html

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Figure 3.1  Now deserted Silver mine at Silver Reef, Utah, circa 1885. From Western Mining History (n.d.), Silver Reef, Utah. Retrieved April 30, 2025, from https://westernmininghistory.com/towns/utah/silver-reef/

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Figure 3.2  Rendering of the Second LDS Temple in Washington County. From T. Walch (2020, July 14), Washington County temple renamed Red Cliffs Utah Temple, Deseret News. Retrieved April 30, 2025, from https://www.deseret.com/faith/2020/7/14/21324316/washington-county-temple-renamed-red-cliffs-utah-temple-mormon-lds/

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Figure 3.3 St. George Experimental Farm in St. George, Utah, circa 1900. From Utah State University, Merrill-Cazier Library, Special Collections & Archives (n.d.). USU Historical Photos Collection. Retrieved April 30, 2025, from https://digital.lib.usu.edu/digital/collection/USU_Photos/id/56/

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S0101 | 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables

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Miller, Saige. 2023. “Aging Utahns Are Dissatisfied with How Utah Is Getting Ready for an Older Future.” KUER, August 29, 2023. https://www.kuer.org/business-economy/2023-08-29/aging-utahns-are-dissatisfied-with-how-utah-is-getting-ready-for-an-older-future.

U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2010 Census of Population and Housing. www.data.census.gov

U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2020 Census of Population and Housing. www.data.census.gov

Utah Historical Society. 2025. “Washington County.” I Love History. Accessed May 11, 2025. https://ilovehistory.utah.gov/washington-county/.

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The table shows the population of Washington County, Utah, in 2010 and 2020. Washington County, Utah, experienced noticeable population growth from 2010 to 2020, with the total population increasing from 138,115 to 180,279. According to the Urban and Rural Decennial Census, most of the population lived in urban areas, which increased from 117,103 in 2010 to 153,479 in 2020, and even the rural population saw a slight increase from 21,012 to 26,800. This is reflective of the county's ongoing urbanization in cities like St. George, which has expanded due to increased housing, employment, health care, and education. The county's attractive natural environment, including red rock landscapes, desert scenery, and nearby Zion National Park, along with its warm climate and outdoor lifestyle, has made it a popular destination for retirees and new residents, contributing to a growth in both urban and total population.

Cite:

U.S. Census Bureau. "TOTAL POPULATION." Decennial Census, DEC Demographic and Housing Characteristics, Table P1, 2020, https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALDHC2020.P1?q=population&g=050XX00US49053&y=2020&d=DEC+Demographic+and+Housing+Characteristics. Accessed on May 11, 2025.

U.S. Census Bureau. "TOTAL POPULATION." Decennial Census, DEC Summary File 1, Table P1, 2010, https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALSF12010.P1?q=population&g=050XX00US49053&y=2010&d=DEC+Summary+File+1. Accessed on May 11, 2025.

U.S. Census Bureau. "URBAN AND RURAL." Decennial Census, DEC Summary File 1, Table P2, 2010, https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALSF12010.P2?q=URBAN+AND+RURAL&g=050XX00US49053&y=2010. Accessed on May 11, 2025.

U.S. Census Bureau. "URBAN AND RURAL." Decennial Census, DEC Demographic and Housing Characteristics, Table P2, 2020, https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALDHC2020.P2?q=URBAN+AND+RURAL&g=050XX00US49053&y=2020. Accessed on May 11, 2025.

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The shape of Washington County's population pyramid is closer to that of a rectangle, where there is a relatively fair distribution of population throughout each age cohort. This indicates a relatively stable population in Washington County, where the aging population will be replaced by about the same size ones. The sex distribution seems to be about evenly split between female and male. This can be explained by the attractions of couples who move to Washington County, Utah. It is said that young couples are more inclined to start a family here due to the lower cost of living and proximity to schools and higher education for their children. Utah, in general, is an attractive state for vacations, especially for snowbirds. St. George in Washington County, Utah, is home to Utah Tech University and is also advertised as a great place for snowbirds to come vacation during the winter due to its geography and proximity to Las Vegas, which is a 3-hour trip by car. It is also home to half, if not the majority, of Washington County's population.

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Figure 6.1 Advertisement

https://www.amatravel.ca/articles/why-utah-is-a-great-snowbird-destination

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Figure 5.2 Located in St. George, previously known as Dixie State University, but changed due to the aftermath of George Floyd and the Black Lives Matter Movement.

https://shorelight.com/universities/undergraduate/utah-tech-university/

https://www.sltrib.com/news/education/2023/01/30/name-dixie-lives-st-george/#:~:text=Dixie%20State%20University's%20name%20became,the%20Confederacy%20and%20white%20supremacy.

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Figure 5.3 Well-designed website that makes booking a rental easy

https://www.vrbo.com/vacation-rentals/usa/utah/washington-county

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Washington County, Utah has quite high youth dependency ratios, considering that this measurement for youth dependency ratio only accounts for children between the ages 0-14, nearly 45 is quite a high youth dependency ratio in 2010. Washington County has a low cost of living, so it is expected for the county to have a large number of children. Additionally, Washington County also holds a large Mormon population of a culture which values larger families. Interestingly, the youth dependency ratio has seen a sharp decline within the 10-year period, while the aged dependency ratio has risen significantly. The decrease in youth dependency could suggest that the population is having less children, but a fertility rate calculation would be needed to come to that conclusion. The increase in the aged dependency ratio could mean either a larger rate of in-migration of senior citizens into the county or it is a consequence of families growing smaller over time.

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All relevant data was taken from Table P12 from the 2010 and 2020 Census data, which provides the population divided between each age group and sex. For these calculations, we will assume the aged population includes anyone ages 65 and above, the children/youth population will be anyone ages 0 to 14 years. The working population will include those between the ages of 15 to 64. The Youth and Aged Dependency Ratios can by calculated using the formula:

Youth Dependency = 100 * (Youth Population/Working Population)

Aged Dependency = 100 * (Aged Population/Working Population)

The Total dependency ratio was calculated by using a similar formula:

Total Dependency = 100 * ((Aged Population+Youth Population)/Working Population)

= Youth Dependency + Aged Dependency

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6- Estimated Ethnic and Racial Changes between 2010 and 2020

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6- Estimated Ethnic and Racial Changes between 2010 and 2020

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To calculate ethnic change in Washington County, Utah, I used data from the 2010 and 2020 U.S. Censuses as provided by the Census Bureau’s website. For 2010 population data I used DEC Summary File 1, Table P3 for broad racial categories, Table PCT5 for Asian subgroups, and Table PCT11 for Hispanic/Latino subgroups. For 2020 population data I used DEC Demographic Profile Table DP1 for broad racial categories and DEC Detailed Demographic and Housing Characteristics File A, Table T01001 for Asian and Hispanic/Latino subgroups.

I calculated the percentage of the total population each broad racial and specific ethnic or national origin represented in both census years using the formula Population of Subgroup/Total Population*100, the subgroups in this case being the various racial categories and ethnicities recognized by the census and the total population being that of Washington County, Utah. I then calculated the percent change for each ethnic subgroup between 2010 and 2020 using the formula [(Population in 2020/Population in 2010)-1]*100.

I am not aware of any weaknesses in the data or these formulas.

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7 - Index of Dissimilarity for 2010 and 2020

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7 - Index of Dissimilarity for 2010 and 2020

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Figure 4.1: St. George Utah Temple, St. George Utah: Longest operating temple of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. From The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (n.d.), Retrieved May 9, 2025, from https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/temples/details/st.-george-utah-temple?lang=eng

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Figure 4.2: Red Cliffs National Conservation Area located in the center of the county. From US Bureau of Land Management (n.d.), Retrieved May 9, 2025, from https://www.blm.gov/programs/national-conservation-lands/utah/red-cliffs-nca

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Washington County, Utah grew in population by in every racial and ethnic category between 2010 and 2020, but it did not change a lot with respect to its racial and ethnic proportions in that decade. According to Table 6, the White population dropped from 89.72% of the total population in 2010 to 84.19% in 2020 while growing in number by a little less than 30,000 people, and the other two racial categories that became proportionately smaller in that period (Black or African American and American Indian and Alaska Native) still grew by more than 17% in total population between 2010 and 2020. The Hispanic or Latino population is the only broad category that grew substantially in proportion in the study period (from 9.76% in 2010 to 11.35% in 2020), and is made up mostly of Mexicans (7.64% of the total population in the county, a proportion higher than that of every non-White broad racial category in both Census years), with Central American and Other Hispanic or Latino ethnicities also making up a larger portion of the population than do every non-White broad racial category in Washington County, Utah.

A population as small as Washington County, Utah is a good example of how raw numbers affect percent change and can make the latter very large when describing small numbers of people. For instance, the Indonesian population grew by a whopping 750% between 2010 and 2020—but that’s because there were only eight Indonesians resident in the county in 2010, and there were 68 in 2020. Neither number is significant, accounting for just 0.01% of the total population in 2010 and 0.04% in 2020. It is notable that every broad racial category and every subcategory had a positive percent change above 17%; Washington County, Utah is growing in absolute numbers in every racial and ethnic category, a fact that is reflected in the percent change column in Table 6.

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Washington County is representative of Utah in recent Ethnic Change

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Washington County is representative of Utah in recent Ethnic Change

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A 2024 article from a Salt Lake City news outlet about the growing Latino population in the state, which is reflected in Washington County.

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Latinos spur growth in Utah, represent growing share of state’s ...

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Formula and Assumptions for Index of Dissimilarity

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Formula and Assumptions for Index of Dissimilarity

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Understanding segregation is essential for analyzing how racial and ethnic groups are distributed within a geographic area. One way to measure this is the Index of Dissimilarity, which ranges from 0 to 1. A higher value indicates greater segregation, while a lower value means the two groups are more evenly distributed. In this project, we apply the index to examine segregation patterns among White-Black, White-Asian, and Black-Asian populations in Washington County, Utah, using U.S. Census tract data from 2010 and 2020.

The formula for the Index of Dissimilarity is: D= 0.5 S| Pig/Pg-Pih/Ph|. First, the total of each subgroup was found ie. White. Then, we computed what proportion of that total resides in that census tract ie. Whites in tract 1/ Total white population for that census year and borough. After, the absolute values of the difference of W/B, W/A, and B/A were found. Finally, the values of those two groups i.e W/B were added and then multiplied by 0.5, where 0.5 odds that a person is of one group or another. One of the limitations per say that this formula carries is that it only compares two groups at a time. We're not able to compare multiple different racial groups at the same time. Since it focuses on just one racial or ethnic pair at a time, it can miss broader patterns of segregation and overlook more complex group dynamics. In highly diverse places like California, New York City or Miami, the Dissimilarity Index may not be the most effective tool for understanding segregation. In this case, Washington county, Utah, is a relatively small geographical area, with a smaller population, so this index is of better use.

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Interpretation for Index of Dissimilarity

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Interpretation for Index of Dissimilarity

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Overall, Washington County shows relatively low segregation(index is closer to 0), with some small shifts in group distribution. In 2010, we see that the groups that have the highest segregation would be Black-Asian. Then, in 2020, we see that the index lowered by a signification amount to 0.2241, indicating more integration between Black and Asian communities compared to 2010. There was a slight shift for the other racial groups compared in the table. We see that the White-Black comparison had the least change from 2010 to 2020 but it did increase, suggesting a slightly more segregated spatial distribution of these populations between 2010 and 2020. The Hispanics-Non-Hispanics category had a slight increase, suggesting more separation between these 2 groups. The White-Asian category had a larger increase compared to the other two previously mentioned. This notable rise could indicate that as the Asian population grew, it may have concentrated more in specific areas.

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On Table 2, Washington County, Utah experienced a rate of change of 0.305 in population between the 2010 and 2020 U.S. Censuses. This means the population increased by 30.5% over that 10-year period. The main reasons for this increase include: Low cost of living ,Attraction of young families and retirees. Based on the lab instructions, the rate of change (r) is calculated using the formula :r = {Pt2/Pt1-1}x100,where P{t2} is the population in 2020 and P{t1} is the population in 2010.The 30.5% increase over ten years reflects both natural growth and migration, making Washington County a strong example of rapid regional development in the state.

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Figure 2.Greater Zion

https://greaterzion.com/

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8 - Entropy Index for Washington County.

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8 - Entropy Index for Washington County.

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When observing trends in the Entropy Index in Washington County, multiple big ones happen. For the Broad Category, it's 2010 (0.192), which tells me there is low integration within this county. Everything changed, as seen in 2020 (0.433), as it increased by 125.52%, which tells me that overall diversity increased throughout this country over the decade. The Asian population started strong in 2010 with 0.893, suggesting a high diversity within the Asian demographic. As seen in the data, there is an increased ethnic group in the Asian community within the county. However, as the decade went on, there was a drastic change in the landscape in 2020 (0.126). The significant decrease highlights the lack of integration within the community and an increase within certain groups. This contrasts with the Hispanic population, which had a low diversity within the first decade of 2010 (0.278) and a surplus in 2020 (0.570). This indicates that the diversity in the Hispanic population grew over the decade. That makes sense when looking at the data, there is an increase in ethnic groups such as Mexican, Costa Rican, and other Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish.

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The formula I will be using is the diversity formula, which will help us understand diversity. When looking at the index range 0-1, if the value is higher, the index means the ethnic groups are evenly represented; a lower index indicates the one group dominating that county, thus less diversity.

I will be using the Census Bureau population and housing data from 2010 and 2020. The racial groups are broad racial categories of Hispanic, Asian, and other mixed races. The goal is to compare the racial diversity in Washington County.

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The formula I using is rate of change, was calculated using this from the lab instructions:{(Pt2)/(Pt1)}-1}.which mean (Pt2) =population in 2020 and (Pt1）=population in 2010,to express this rate as a percentage multiply by 100.Percentage rate of change={(pt2)/(pt1)-1}x 100.

In this case the result is r=0.305 or 30.5%