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In an effort to contain the virus, China's central and local governments have placed huge areas on lockdown, meaning people cannot come or go, nor can vehicles freely pass between counties and provinces.

While animal feed production resumed on February 10, the Ministry of Agriculture said, the logistics network is understaffed and faced with travel restrictions. This means farmers are struggling to feed their livestock, while many of the live and wet markets where they sell their animals or the slaughtered meat remain shut.

On Wednesday, the Ministry of Commerce warned that China's agriculture and food industries will be "heavily impacted" if the coronavirus crisis persists. On the same day, Premier Li Keqiang told local governments to make sure farmers do not miss the grain planting season, despite the virus, because it "will have an impact on the economic foundation and social stability for the whole year".

"Animal farms have big problems," said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agricultural data provider JCI China. "There has been a shortage of feed getting to regions due to transport and logistics issues. Farmers are feeding their animals cheaper corn and [distiller grains] just to keep them alive as they cannot get soybean meal. They also cannot sell their produce at the markets."

"Even if a company can restart [trading], they're dealing with upstream and downstream logistics," said Darin Friedrichs, a grain and oilseed analyst in Beijing. "[Imports] are happening, but there's a shortage of drivers."

It was reported earlier this week that thousands of containers of frozen meat are piling up at Chinese ports because the trucking network has effectively collapsed. Ports are running out of power points to keep the meat frozen, further stoking fears of damage to the food supply chain.

"This is obviously not good for our business, but I am more concerned about some of our customers, who appear to be in real trouble," said the company director, who because of the sensitivity of the situation, preferred not to be named.

In the poultry sector, it is these hatcheries - where layer birds and eggs are cultivated - that could be at most risk, said Chenjun Pan, protein analyst at Rabobank.

"I believe hatcheries are threatened. If farms want to slow down, they could destroy eggs instead of destroying breeders," she said, with the impact being that the population of chickens in China could be reduced over the coming months.

Pan said that food prices in China will probably spike again during the first quarter and possibly into next, following an eight-year high consumer inflation reading in January of 5.4 per cent.

Wang at JCI China, meanwhile, predicts a 2 million to 3 million metric tonne supply gap of soybeans in March, with crushers in the country slowly returning to operation, but still suffering from logistical problems.

This confluence of issues has persuaded Beijing to loosen the barriers to entry to its agricultural market. This week, it announced a process through which importers could apply for waivers on trade war tariffs on

including pork and soybeans. This is viewed as a way of both satisfying its purchase commitments in the

and filling holes in its food supply.

"According to our contacts within the Chinese government, the likelihood of success on granting a request under this new process would be very high. We understand this is the basic approach adopted by China to meet its purchase commitment without formally repealing the retaliatory tariffs," said Frank Pan, partner at Xin Bai Law in Shanghai.

Already, Bloomberg reported that Chinese buyers have bought at least two cargoes of sorghum and inquired about soybean purchases.

US food giant Tyson Foods said recently that its pork exports had been disrupted due to the virus, but said that its chicken exports remain on target.

"We have not redirected any of our current export chicken products from their intended destinations. We're closely monitoring news of the coronavirus," said Tyson spokeswoman Yang Hli. "In China, we have been working with the government and we have successfully restarted all of our operations."
Additional reporting by Cissy Zhou

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China's farmers braced for impact of coronavirus, further inflation ahead

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Farmers are unable to access feed due to lockdowns aimed at halting the spread of the coronavirus, some of which have been loosened amid fears of a spike in food prices.

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Chinese farmers see livelihoods threatened by coronavirus pandemic and related economic slump

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Average prices for meat (beef) worldwide from 2014 to 2024 | Statista

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This statistic depicts the average annual prices for meat (beef) from 2014 through 2024*.

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Meat and poultry consumption is becoming more important in the Japanese diet. Some studies report that Japanese diets have become increasingly Westernized: as per capita income increases, Japanese people consume more meats and poultry than grain products.

There are many studies on United States and Canadian meat and poultry consumption. Eales and Unnevehr (1993) conducted a survey of meats and poultry demand elasticity studies in Canada. Table 5.2 shows excerpts from their results. In their survey, the estimates of own-price elasticity are considerably lower in absolute value than those from Hayami's study, particularly for beef and pork. Using the AIDS model estimated with United States data, Chen and Veeman (1991) reported own-price elasticities for beef, pork and poultry to be -0.77, -0.87 and -0.95, respectively. The Chen and Veeman study on United States meat demand yields estimates that are far closer to those obtained from Canadian data. The studies' comparisons between Western countries and Japan indicate that the own-price elasticities of meats and poultry are higher in Japan than in the United States and Canada.

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The first thing to note is that if the price increases are caused by supply shocks ( as is almost certainly the case), higher beef prices are unambiguously bad news for consumers. So, even if consumers are today eating "healthier", they aren't happier. If people really wanted to be eating more veggies or chicken, they could have voluntarily chose to do so five years ago without a beef price spike forcing them into that outcome.

The core of the question relates to substitutability. When the price of beef rises, what do people substitute toward? This is the so-called cross-price elasticitiy of demand. There is an enormous academic literature in agricultural economics estimating the cross-price elasticity of demand for beef and other types of food.

The problem with a lot of this literature is that, due to data limitations, all beef is lumped together as an aggregate category and the researchers study how consumers substitute aggregate beef for aggregate pork and aggregate poultry. Most of the studies I've seen put the cross-price elasticities between aggregate beef and aggregate pork/poultry at something less than 0.3 and often much smaller than that. So, a 1% increase in the price of beef causes a less than 0.3% increase in pork and poultry. A 100% increase in the price of beef (something like what we've seen over the last 5 years) causes a less than 30% increase in quantity of pork an poultry demanded.

There are a few studies that look at how demand food categories is affected by aggregate meat (lumping together beef, pork, and poultry). This study, for example, estimates that a 1% increase in the price of meat would cause a 1% increase in quantity demanded for eggs, a 0.32% increase in demand for fruits and vegetables, a 0.24% increase in alcoholic beverages, and smaller effects on other categories of foods.

But, most of these types of studies only study the inter-related demands for different aggregate meats and do not include effects on fruits and vegetables or other foods. In so doing, the researchers are assuming beef demand is "separable" from demand for other foods. Separability is a bit of a complicated concept but it basically means that my demand for one good is not directly affected by the price of another good (though it may well be indirectly affected as I have to re-allocated my budget to different categories in light of the price increase).

There are some studies that have relaxed this separability assumption to look how consumers substitute among different types of meat. For example, when the price of steak rises, are consumers more likely to substitute toward another beef product (like roast or ground beef) or similar product from a different species like a pork chop or chicken breast? This older paper suggests in fact suggests that the latter is the case:

In any event, one of the big challenges with answering these sorts of questions is that we simply don't have good data. We can get aggregate "disappearance" data from the USDA which lumps all beef together. We can get grocery store scanner data, but most of that is of limited use for fresh meat products or fresh veggies because these are "random weight" items and the datasets don't have information on product weights (it's tough to estimate demand when you don't know exactly how much people are buying). That's one of the reasons I've been running the Food Demand Survey (FooDS) survey for over two years now, to provide better data to answer these questions. My colleague Glynn Tonsor (whose written a lot on the very issues I mention here) from K-State and I are polishing up a paper now that uses the FooDS data to look at substitution patters among different types of meat and non-meat items in this period of high beef prices, but it's not quite ready for preview yet.

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What do consumers do when the price of beef rises? - Jayson Lusk

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A reader recently sent me an interesting set of questions that I've actually been thinking about for a while. The context is the rising price of beef. As I've written about several times in the past, beef prices have increased steadily for the past two years. Here i

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3.3 Livestock commodities

3.3.1 Past and present

Livestock, a major factor in the growth of world agriculture. The world food economy is being increasingly driven by the shift of diets and food consumption patterns towards livestock products. Some use the term"food revolution" to refer to these trends (Delgado et al., 1999). In the developing countries, where almost all world population increases take place, consumption of meat has been growing at 5-6 percent p.a. and that of milk and dairy products at 3.4-3.8 percent p.a. in the last few decades. Aggregate agricultural output is being affected by these trends, not only through the growth of livestock production proper, but also through the linkages of livestock production to the crop sector which supplies the feeding stuffs (mainly cereals and oilseeds), and benefits from the important crop-livestock synergies prevailing in mixed farming systems (de Haan et al., 1998).

On the negative side, and in association with policy distortions or market failures, there are environmental implications associated with the expansion of livestock production. For example, through the expansion of land for livestock development, livestock sector growth has been a prime force in deforestation in some countries such as Brazil, and in overgrazing in other countries. Intensive livestock operations on an industrial scale, mostly in the industrial countries but increasingly in the developing ones, are a major source of environmental problems through the production of point-source pollution (effluents, etc.).20 In parallel, growth in the ruminant sector contributes to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through methane emissions and nitrous oxide from the waste of grazing animals (see Chapters 12 and 13).

Important exceptions and qualifications. The strength of the livestock sector as the major driving force of global agriculture can be easily exaggerated. Many developing countries and regions, where the need to increase protein consumption is the greatest, are not participating in the process. In 40 developing countries, among those covered individually in this study, per capita consumption of meat was lower in the mid-1990s than ten years earlier. In this category are the regions of sub-Saharan Africa, with very low consumption per capita reflecting quasi-perennial economic stagnation. Also the Near East/North Africa, where the rapid progress of the period to the late 1980s (oil boom) was interrupted and slightly reversed in the subsequent years, helped by the collapse of consumption in Iraq. Similar considerations apply to developments in per capita consumption of milk and dairy products (Table 3.9). In the great majority of countries failing to participate in the upsurge of the livestock products consumption, the reason has simply been lack of development and income growth (including failures to develop agriculture and production of these products) that would translate their considerable latent demand for what are still luxury items into effective demand. Cultural and religious factors have also stood in the way of wider diffusion of consumption of meat in general in some countries (such as India) or of particular meats (such as beef in India and pork in Muslim countries).

Table 3.9: Milk and dairy products, production and use: past and projected

1964/66

1974/76

1984/86

1994/96

1997/99

2015

2030

Memo item

'000 tonnes

Growth rates, % p.a.

1997/99

1969-99

1979-99

1989-99

1992-99

1997/99-2015

2015-30

Memo item

Production (whole milk equivalent)

Memo item

The second major factor limiting the growth of world meat consumption is the fact that such consumption is heavily and disproportionately concentrated in the industrial countries. They account for 15 percent of world population but for 37 percent of world meat consumption and 40 percent of that of milk. Their average per capita consumption is fairly high - that of meat is 88 kg compared with 25 kg in developing countries. This leaves rather limited scope for further increases in their per capita consumption, while their population grows very slowly at 0.6 percent p.a. currently and 0.4 percent p.a. in the coming two decades. These characteristics of the industrial countries have meant that a good part of world demand has been growing only slowly. The aggregate meat consumption of the industrial countries grew at 1.3 percent p.a. in the last ten years (0.3 percent p.a. for milk), compared with 6.1 percent (3.8 percent for milk) in developing countries. This slow growth in the industrial countries has partly offset the accelerating growth in several developing countries that have been rapidly emerging as major meat consumers, such as China, Brazil and the Republic of Korea. The net effect of these contrasting trends has been a deceleration in the growth of world average per capita consumption of meat, going from 24 kg in the mid-1960s to 36 kg at present (Table 3.10). This deceleration is clearly seen in the growth rates of world aggregate consumption of meat (Table 3.11). The deceleration has been even more pronounced in the case of milk (Table 3.9), mostly because of developments in the transition economies (see below).

World averages conceal as much as they reveal. In the case of meat the strong growth in production and implied apparent consumption of pig meat in China in the 1980s and 1990s (which many observers believe to be grossly overstated in the country's statistics),21 has shifted world meat consumption averages upwards rather significantly, from 30.7 kg in the mid-1980s to 36.4 kg at present. Without China, the average for the rest of the world would have actually stagnated in the same period (see memo item in Table 3.10). Again, this stagnation reflects the other extraordinary event of the 1990s, the collapse of consumption in the transition economies which went from 73 kg in the pre-reform period (late 1980s, when it had been boosted by heavy subsidies) to an estimated 46 kg in 1997/99. Excluding also the transition economies and the downward bias they impart to world totals, the per capita meat consumption in the rest of the world has been growing at a much slower, but always decelerating, pace: by 2.5 kg in the first decade (mid-1960s to mid-1970s), and by 1.6 kg in the second and third decades (see memo item in Table 3.10). Meat sector trends in the developing countries as a whole have been decisively influenced not only by China's rapid growth in the last two decades, but also by a similar performance in Brazil (from 32 kg in the mid-1970s to 71 kg at present). Including these two countries, the per capita meat consumption in the developing countries went over the same period from 11.4 to 25.5 kg. Excluding them, it went from 11 kg to only 15.5 kg (Table 3.10).

Table 3.10: Food consumption of meat

1964/66

1974/76

1984/86

1994/96

1997/99

2015

2030

World

24.2

27.4

30.7

34.6

36.4

41.3

45.3

Memo item

Meat consumption by type (kg per capita, carcass weight equivalent)

World

Developing countries

For milk and dairy products, there has been no"China effect" on world totals (given the small weight of these products in China's food consumption), but a very strong negative one on account of the transition economies, leading to a sharp slowdown in the growth rate of world production and consumption. Without them, there has been no deceleration in world production and consumption (Table 3.9, memo items).

In conclusion, the modest and decelerating growth in world per capita consumption of meat has been taking place for a wide variety of reasons. For the high-income countries, the reasons include the near saturation of consumption (e.g. in the EU and Australia), policies of high domestic meat prices and/or preference for fish (Japan and Norway), and health and food safety reasons everywhere. However, by far the most important reasons have been the above-mentioned failure of many low-income countries to raise incomes and create effective demand, as well as the cultural and religious factors affecting the growth of meat consumption in some major countries.

Rapid growth of the poultry sector. Perhaps the perception of revolutionary change in the meat sector reflects the extraordinary performance of world production and consumption of poultry meat. Its share in world meat production increased from 13 percent in the mid-1960s to 28 percent currently. Per capita consumption increased more than threefold over the same period. That of pork also increased from 9.1 kg to 14.6 kg (China's statistics helping, but from 9.7 kg to only 10.3 kg for the world without China, Table 3.10). In contrast, per capita consumption of ruminant meat (from cattle, sheep and goats) actually declined a little. The most radical shifts in consumption in favour of poultry meat took place in countries that were the traditional producers, and often major exporters, of bovine meat: Latin America, North America and Oceania (accompanied in the latter two by deep cuts in the consumption of beef), as well as in the mutton-eating region of the Near East/North Africa. Significant increases in beef consumption were rare. They occurred in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Taiwan Province of China (all of them somehow linked to increased beef imports, often the result of more liberal trade policies), while Brazil is an example of fast growth in both production and consumption of beef.

Table 3.11: Meat, aggregate production and demand: past and projected

Production

Consumption

1997/99

1997/99

'000 tonnes

Growth rates, % p.a.

'000 tonnes

Growth rates, % p.a.

World livestock production (meat, milk, eggs) ¹

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.5

¹ Growth rates from aggregate production derived by valuing all products at 1989/91 international prices.

Buoyancy of meat trade in recent years. The rapid growth in consumption of several countries was supported by even faster growth in trade. Some drastic changes occurred in the sources of exports and destination of imports, particularly in the last ten years or so. For example, Japan increased per capita meat consumption from 32.6 kg in 1984/86 to 41.5 kg in 1997/99, while its net imports quadrupled and self-sufficiency fell from 84 to 56 percent. At the global level, trade (world exports, including the meat equivalent of live animal exports) increased from 9.4 percent of world consumption in the mid-1980s to 12.7 percent in 1997/99, with poultry increasing from 12.2 to 16.4 percent and beef from 6.3 to 13.9 percent (Table 3.12). The major actors in this expansion of the meat trade are shown in Table 3.13. Japan tops the list of importers. Recent surges in the poultry meat (and to a lesser extent pig meat) imports of the countries of the former Soviet Union (overwhelmingly the Russian Federation), put this group of countries second in the league of importers, with its net imports rivalling those of Japan. On the export side, the combined exports of beef and mutton of Australia and New Zealand put them at the top of world meat exporters. However, the really extraordinary development of the 1990s has been the turnaround of the United States from a sizeable net importer of meat to a sizeable net exporter, a result reflecting its declining net imports of beef and pig meat and skyrocketing exports of poultry meat. In a sense, although the policies are different, the United States is replicating the earlier experience of the EU, which turned from a big net importer of meat up to the late 1970s to a large and growing net exporter.

Table 3.12: World exports of livestock products and percentage of world consumption

1964/66

1974/76

1984/86

1997/99

Note: Meat exports include meat equivalent of live animal exports.

Table 3.13: Net trade positions of the major importers and exporters of livestock products
('000 tonnes)

Major meat importers

Major meat exporters

1964/66

1974/76

1984/86

1997/99

1964/66

1974/76

1984/86

1997/99

Japan

United States

Total meat

-91

-350

-643

-2430

Milk/dairy products ¹

2547

-2040

-719

-2909

Milk/dairy products ¹

-847

-1351

-2129

-2137

EU-15

Former Soviet Union

Beef

-879

-220

552

504

Milk/dairy products ¹

-79

70

-502

529

Milk/dairy products ¹

-396

5846

11821

10408

Mexico

Australia and New Zealand

Total meat

105

41

7

-586

Milk/dairy products ¹

4729

5584

7764

13302

Milk/dairy products ¹

-254

-684

-1951

-2231

Brazil

Milk/dairy products ¹

-68

-30

-67

-205

Milk/dairy products ¹

-230

-224

-1044

-1913

Saudi Arabia

Argentina

Poultry meat

-3

-47

-169

-292

Milk/dairy products ¹

59

444

36

1217

Total meat

-12

-62

-286

-433

Eastern Europe

Milk/dairy products ¹

-62

-213

-1169

-877

Beef

217

327

310

78

Mutton

17

51

74

24

Note: Data include the meat equivalent of trade in live animals.
¹ In liquid milk equivalent (excludes butter).

The developing countries did not participate as much as the developed countries in this buoyancy of the world meat trade, although there have been some notable exceptions on both the import and the export side. In poultry meat, Brazil and Thailand became significant exporters, while Mexico became a large importer together with the more traditional importers of the Near East region (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates) and Hong Kong SAR. In pig meat, the largest developing net exporter continued to be China (mainland, including trade in live animals), although this has declined in recent years. China was rivalled in recent years by growing net exports from Brazil. Taiwan Province of China became a major exporter (mostly to Japan) in the decade to the mid-1990s before turning into a net importer after 199722 following the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (Fuller, Fabiosa and Premakumar, 1997).

On the import side, Hong Kong SAR has continued to be the predominant developing importer, while Mexico and Argentina became fast-growing net importers of pig meat in recent years. Overall, the pig meat trade has not been buoyant in the developing countries, an outcome that has partly reflected the lack of consumption in the major meat importers of the Near East/North Africa region. In bovine meat, India joined the more traditional developing exporters of South America as a significant exporter (mostly buffalo meat). The Republic of Korea became the largest developing net importer, surpassing Egypt. Several other developing countries became significant importers of bovine meat in recent years, including some countries of Southeast Asia (the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia) as well as Chile. Most recently, Mexico turned from net exporter to net importer of beef (including the meat equivalent of trade in live animals - on this latter point, see USDA, 2001a). Finally, only a few of the traditional importers of the Near East/North Africa region (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait) continued to be significant net importers of mutton (including live animals), but the imports of other countries collapsed (the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya) so that net imports of the region as a whole declined.

Slow growth in the dairy trade. In contrast to the buoyancy of the meat trade in recent years, trade in dairy products virtually stagnated. There was no growth in net imports of the developing countries. Increases in East Asia and modest ones in Latin America just compensated for declines in the other regions. There was no boost from increased imports on the part of the transition economies as was the case with meat. On the contrary, the former Soviet Union turned from net importer to net exporter. The decline of production of subsidized surpluses and the associated decline in food aid shipments on the side of the major exporters were an integral part of these trade outcomes.

Growth of livestock output achieved with modest increases in the feed use of cereals. We referred earlier to the importance of the livestock sector in creating demand for grains and oilseeds. Feed demand for cereals is often considered as the dynamic element that conditions the growth of the cereal sector. Occasionally, such use of cereals is viewed as a threat to food security, allegedly because it"subtracts" cereal supplies (or the resources going into their production) that would otherwise be available to food-insecure countries and population groups. We have argued elsewhere that this way of viewing things is not entirely appropriate, although, where economies are closed to trade, negative effects on food supplies available to food-insecure population groups can be produced (Alexandratos, 1995).
continued
Estimates put the total feed use of cereals at 657 million tonnes, or 35 percent of world total cereal use. Demand for feed in recent years has been a much less dynamic component of aggregate demand for cereals than commonly believed. The main reasons for these developments in the 1990s were discussed in the preceding section on cereals: the collapse of the livestock sector in the transition economies and high policy prices for cereals in the EU that favoured use of non-cereal feedstuffs (see also the discussion on cassava in Section 3.5 below). An additional factor that slowed down the growth of cereal use as feed has been the shift of meat production away from beef and towards poultry meat and pork, particularly in the industrial countries, the major users of cereals for feed. Pigs and poultry are much more efficient converters of feed to meat than cattle (see Smil, 2000, Chapter 5). World totals have been decisively influenced by developments in the United States where the shift was most pronounced (poultry now accounts for 44 percent of total meat output, up from 30 percent in the mid-1980s, with the share of beef declining from 43 to 33 percent). Given the predominance of the feedlot system in the United States for producing bovine meat with high feedgrain conversion rates (5-7 kg of grain per kg of beef are the numbers usually given in the literature), it is easy to see why the shift to poultry has had such a pronounced impact on the average meat/grain ratios. Finally, productivity increases (reduction of the amount of feed required to produce 1 kg of meat), resulting from animal genetic improvements and better management, also played a role, at least in the major industrial countries.

20 A recent study puts the problem as follows:"In 1964, half of all beef cows in the United States were on lots of fewer than 50 animals. By 1996, nearly 90 percent of direct cattle feeding was occurring on lots of 1 000 head or more, with some 300 lots averaging 16 000-20 000 head and nearly 100 lots in excess of 30 thousand head. These feedlots represent waste management challenges equal to small cities, and most are regulated as point-source pollution sites under the authority of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)" (Commission for Environmental Cooperation-NAFTA, 1999, p. 202).
21 According to its production and trade statistics, China's per capita meat consumption, resulting from the food balance sheets, was 45 kg in 1997/99. Independent consumption statistics show per capita consumption of"pork, beef, mutton" for 1997 of 19.04 kg for urban residents and 12.72 kg for the rural ones (UNDP, 2000a). The food balance sheet data we use here show for 1997/99 36.5 kg for the same meats plus another 8.5 kg for poultry meat. For a discussion of discrepancies see Feng Lu (1998); Fuller, Hayes and Smith (2000); and Colby, Zhong and Giordano (1998). It is indicative of the reservations with which the official production (and implied consumption) statistics are received by those concerned with world trade in livestock products, feedgrains and soybeans, that in FAPRI's latest projection study the data for per capita consumption of meat in China have been revised downwards drastically, to 31.5 kg in 1997/99 (FAPRI, 2002, livestock tables).
22 In the latest FAPRI projections, the net, and growing, net importer status of Taiwan Province of China continues to 2011 (FAPRI, 2002).

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World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 - An FAO perspective

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Livestock, a major factor in the growth of world agriculture. The world food economy is being increasingly driven by the shift of diets and food consumption patterns towards livestock products. Some use the term"food revolution" to refer to these trends (Delgado et al., 1999).

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Australian consumers are likely to cut the amount of meat they eat as its retail price increases, a new study of consumer demand has found.

The Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation has looked closely at the foods consumers are willing to pay more for in order to keep them as a part of their diet.

The study looked at 'demand elasticities' in Australia for 15 food categories and is the most comprehensive ever done in the field. The degree to which a product's demand or supply reacts to a change in price is known as its 'elasticity'.

In a report released last Friday the RIRDC said milk, bread, fresh fruit and fresh vegetables appeared to face an inelastic demand, meaning that consumers are more likely to absorb a price increase to continue purchasing these products.

However, All meat types, rice, margarine and preserved vegetables had elastic demand, meaning consumers aren't as willing to pay an increased price to keep these goods in their fridge or kitchen cupboard.

Normally, sales increase with a drop in prices and decrease with a rise in prices, however elasticity varies among foods because some may be more essential to the consumer.

RIRDC Managing Director, Craig Burns said that in order to calculate the demand elasticities for the 15 key food groups a comprehensive analysis of food prices between 1998/99 and 2003/04 was conducted, and it showed a major increase in food prices over that five year period.

"Across the 15 food categories that were looked at, average food prices in Australia rose by 26 percent, which is well above the 17 percent increase in the CPI over the same five year period. The largest increase in food prices was seen in mutton and lamb, with a 64 percent increase, while the lowest increase in prices was in sugar and jam with a 3.6 percent increase," Mr Burns said.

"The study also found that when compared to other nations our inelastic demand for bread, milk and especially fresh vegetables was close to that seen in the USA, Canada and Japan. Australian meat demand appeared to be uniformly more elastic than that seen in other countries, meaning people overseas are more likely than Aussies to keep buying a particular type of meat if its price rises - Aussies are more likely to reduce the amount of meat purchased or substitute one meat type for another if the price of their preferred choice goes up."

As a result of the research there is now a thorough and well defined reference source that will allow market and policy analysts to make better informed strategic decisions.

"Because food expenditure is such a crucial part of total household expenditure, being able to evaluate a consumer's response to policies that impact on the financial wellbeing of their household is important. This research will help greatly in determining the impact of food-related policies on average Australians," Mr Burns said.

"Up till now this detailed level of information hasn't been available, so those that set R&D priorities, forecast future market conditions and assess proposals for industry or commodity-based levies now have a reliable set of figures to help guide their decision making process."

The study, conducted for RIRDC by Deakin University, used data from the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics Household Expenditure Surveys and involved the latest estimation techniques. Source: http://www.rirdc.gov.au

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Study reveals elastic domestic demand for meat - Beef Central

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Australian consumers are likely to cut the amount of meat they eat as its retail price increases, a new study of consumer demand has found. The Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation has looked closely at the foods consumers are willing to pay more for in order to keep them as a part of their diet.

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Introduction

Meat and poultry consumption is becoming more important in the Japanese diet. Some studies report that Japanese diets have become increasingly Westernized: as per capita income increases, Japanese people consume more meats and poultry than grain products. As there is a limit to total calorie intake, the ratio of meat products to other foods is becoming larger than that of grain commodities. As reported in Chapter 4, fish and meat are moderate substitutes for each other (see Table 4.7). Furthermore, in June 1988, Japan signed the Beef Market Access Agreement (BMAA) with the United States. This agreement may have accelerated the increasing trend of Japanese beef consumption owing to the influx of cheaper beef from abroad. According to Persaud and Chern (1999), Japan's meat production began first to stagnate and then to fall, while meat imports rapidly increased after the agreement.

The main objectives of the following analysis of meat demand are to analyse meat consumption patterns and to conduct an econometric analysis of the meat demand structure in Japan. Cross-sectional household data from the 1997 FIES are used and estimations are based on a total of 94 200 observations. The meat items included are beef, pork, poultry, ground meat, ham, sausage and bacon. Fish is not included in this model because there are many heterogeneous groups of fish and, when the substitution patterns of the aggregate groups of meat and of fish were analysed (see Chapter 4), it was found that fresh meat and fresh fish were mild substitutes. A study by Eales and Wessells (1999) also found that meat and fish have not been weakly separable in recent years. The results of separability tests tend to be highly dependent on a particular database. Eales and Wessells used the time series data generated from the FIES for 1981 to 1995, and did not include high-value processed meats in their study. The results for testing separability may be different for the present report, which uses household-level data and includes other processed meats in the model. In any case, a weak separability between the seven meats and other foods - including fish - is assumed.

Much research has been conducted on the structural change of meat and poultry demand in Japan using time series data (Hayes, Wahl and Williams, 1990; Capps et al., 1994; Eales and Wessells, 1999). After a decade of trade liberalization, it is extremely important to have an accurate estimate of Japanese meat and poultry demand elasticities. This report offers another estimation with cross-sectional data, which (as already noted) yield more reliable estimates of expenditure and income elasticities than time series data do. In this report, own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities are estimated by various single equation models and the almost ideal demand system (AIDS), developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980a; 1980b), as discussed in Chapter 3. These elasticity estimates are utilized to analyse Japanese consumption patterns of meat and its products.

Review of exising information and literature

Meat and poultry consumption in Japan over the last three decades has two main characteristics: an increasing trend in meat and poultry consumption; and a rapid increase of meat imports.

Historically, increases in per capita income in Japan have accelerated meat consumption. Figure 5.1 illustrates annual per capita beef, pork and poultry consumption and shows how per capita consumption of meats and poultry has been steadily increasing since 1960. Pork consumption increased until the early 1980s, but its growth seems to have levelled off thereafter. Over the last 30 years, the average consumption of beef has not increased as rapidly as that of pork and poultry. However, the increase in beef consumption has accelerated since the mid-1980s, and in recent years beef has been increasing more rapidly than pork and poultry consumption. In 1960, per capita consumption of beef, pork and poultry was 1.1, 1.1 and 0.8 kg, respectively. Ten years later, beef consumption had nearly doubled, and pork and poultry consumption had increased fourfold. By 1980, beef consumption had tripled, and pork and poultry consumption had increased tenfold. By 1995, beef consumption was seven and a half times its 1960 level, and poultry consumption had increased by nearly 14 times.

The Japanese Government protected beef producers with import quotas. Before the 1988 BMAA, all beef imports, except a small portion under the private quota, were monopolized by the Livestock Industries Promotion Corporation (LIPC) (see Hayami, 1979; Alston et al., 1990). Under the BMAA, quotas were raised by 60 000 tonnes each year from April 1988 to April 1991 (Persaud and Chern, 1999). Thereafter, the quota restriction was replaced by an import tariff. This agreement significantly curtailed LIPC's intervention in the beef market. Consequently, the Japanese beef market became freer; the Japanese cattle industry had to adjust its supply and pricing to the market situation, and consumers enjoyed the benefits of increasing competition from foreign countries.

The increases in meat imports since the 1988 agreement have been remarkable.[8] Figure 5.2 illustrates the trends of beef, pork and poultry imports and shows how all meat imports increased rapidly after the mid-1980s, with beef imports surpassing pork imports during most of the 1990s. Poultry imports have been lower than those of beef and pork during the last three decades. As Figure 5.3 shows, domestic beef production has been stagnant since the mid-1980s, and beef imports have grown at an even faster rate than before. These figures clearly show that beef imports have exceeded domestic production since 1992. Given the historical restrictive beef quota and its trade liberalization in 1988, the relatively high growth rates of beef consumption were stimulated by increased imports in the late 1990s. Figure 5.3 also shows how the production of pork and poultry has decreased since the late 1980s. Figure 5.4 shows the yearly percentage change of nominal unit prices for beef, pork and poultry. Beef prices have been more volatile than those of pork and poultry. Since trade liberalization, beef prices have shown a downward trend, although the magnitude of this trend is not as large as might have been expected.

Food prices in Japan have generally been considered high, relative to other developed countries. Hayami (1979) reports the price differentials of food commodities based on 1977 data. Two decades ago, the retail price of beef in Tokyo was seven to nine times higher than in the capitals of other developed countries. In order to have an overview of the price differentials, MAFF regularly issues price comparisons for food items in major cities of the world. As shown on Table 5.1, which is based on 1996 data, beef is still more expensive in Tokyo than it is in other major cities, although the price differential ranges from twice to none. The pork price varies among major cities, and poultry is cheaper in Tokyo than in several other major cities. Combined with Hayami's survey, Table 5.1 shows that the price differentials among large cities in developed countries have decreased significantly over the last 20 years.

Estimation results on the own-price elasticities of meat demand in Japan, the United States and Canada vary considerably. Hayami (1979) investigated the consequences of Japanese beef trade liberalization and reported the results of own-price elasticities for beef from other studies: the results vary from -1.3 to -1.8. Applying the Rotterdam demand system, Sasaki (1995) estimated various meat demand elasticities in Japan. The own-price elasticities of beef, pork, poultry and meat products are -1.26, -1.53, -0.68 and -0.81, respectively. These results are consistent with Hayami's survey: beef and pork are highly price-elastic, while poultry is relatively inelastic.
Figure 5.1: Annual per capita beef, pork and poultry consumption, 1960-1999

Source: MAFF, 2001.

Figure 5.2: Japanese imports of beef, pork and poultry, 1960-1999

Source: MAFF, 2001.

Figure 5.3: Domestic production of beef, pork and poultry, 1960-1999

Source: MAFF, 2001.

Figure 5.4: Yearly percentage changes of beef, pork and poultry prices, 1970-1997

Source: FIES, various issues.

TABLE 5.1
International price comparison (November 1996)

Note: Price comparison with Tokyo (price in Tokyo = 100).
Source: MAFF, 1997.

There are many studies on United States and Canadian meat and poultry consumption. Eales and Unnevehr (1993) conducted a survey of meats and poultry demand elasticity studies in Canada. Table 5.2 shows excerpts from their results. In their survey, the estimates of own-price elasticity are considerably lower in absolute value than those from Hayami's study, particularly for beef and pork. Using the AIDS model estimated with United States data, Chen and Veeman (1991) reported own-price elasticities for beef, pork and poultry to be -0.77, -0.87 and -0.95, respectively. The Chen and Veeman study on United States meat demand yields estimates that are far closer to those obtained from Canadian data. The studies' comparisons between Western countries and Japan indicate that the own-price elasticities of meats and poultry are higher in Japan than in the United States and Canada.

TABLE 5.2
Canadian meat demand: own-price elasticity estimates (published in the 1990s)

Source: Eales and Unnevehr, 1993, Table 4.

Expenditure elasticity is one of the key determinants of future meat demand, and it is important to have an accurate estimate of expenditure elasticity in order to forecast the medium- to long-term demand for meat. Eales and Unnevehr (1993) surveyed the results of Canadian expenditure elasticity studies. Table 5.3 shows part of their survey results. Using United States data, Moschini and Meilke (1989) reported various expenditure elasticities on meat demand. The estimated expenditure elasticities of beef, pork and poultry were, respectively, 1.39, 0.85 and 0.21 in the post-structural change period of the fourth quarter of 1975 and in the 1967-1987 data set. There are only slight differences between the estimates made from Canadian and those made from United States data. In the Eales and Unnevehr study, expenditure elasticities for beef, pork and poultry are positive, but only the beef expenditure elasticity exceeds one in the Moschini and Meilke study.

TABLE 5.3
Canadian meat demand: expenditure elasticity estimates (published in the 1990s)

Source: Eales and Unnevehr, 1993, Table 4.

Sasaki (1995) reported the income elasticities of meats and poultry in Japan, and found elasticities for beef, pork, poultry and other meat products of 0.80, 1.29, 1.42 and 2.10, respectively. It is interesting to note that Sasaki's study shows beef to be a normal good, although pork, poultry and meat products are superior goods. These results are quite different from the findings of the Canadian and United States studies. Sasaki's estimates depend on the specification of the Rotterdam model and the use of time series data. In the present report, the AIDS model with cross-sectional data has been applied, which should yield more reliable estimates of expenditure elasticities.

Empirical results

The survey data used in this report consist of 94 200 observations for seven meat products. Price data are constructed for households with zero consumption (and thus zero budget share) according to their geographic location, the month of the survey and the household's income level, as described in Chapter 3. In order to have a consistent result, OLS, Heckman's two-step and Tobit estimators are compared. For system modelling, the LA/AIDS models with Stone and Laspeyres index is utilized, and the inverse Mills ratio is included to correct for the zero consumption problem. The full version of the AIDS model is also applied, and all results are compared. Both the LA/AIDS and the AIDS are estimated with homogeneity and symmetry conditions imposed.

Table 5.4 reports the comparison of estimated own-price elasticities: excluding sausage, beef has the most inelastic own-price elasticity among the seven meat commodities in the single equation models. These results indicate that Japanese consumers are insensitive to changes in the beef price. If beef were price-inelastic, the recent increases in beef consumption would not have been caused by price decreases, but either by per capita income increases or by substitution with other meat products. Table 5.5 reports the (Hicksian) compensated price elasticities obtained from the AIDS model with inverse Mills ratios for all seven variables. Most products are net substitutes. Only beef and ground meat show a negative Hicksian cross-price elasticity, which is caused by a net complementarity.

The estimates of expenditure elasticity are compared in Table 5.6. Among all meat products, only beef has an expenditure elasticity that exceeds one - those of other commodities are all less than one. This result is very similar to that found in the United States and Canadian studies reported by Eales and Unnevehr, and Moschini and Meilke. Sasaki's study, based on existing Japanese data, shows nearly the opposite results. From this study, it can be concluded that the Japanese meat consumption pattern has been Westernized in that expenditure elasticities have become similar to those estimated in North American countries. This preference change might have been caused by the increases in imported beef. The comparison of expenditure elasticities from various models reveals that results are robust. In addition, a high expenditure elasticity for beef indicates that beef consumption will not decrease dramatically as long as Japanese consumers maintain their high per capita income.

It is interesting to compare these estimates with those obtained by Eales and Wessells (1999) using the quarterly time series data for 1981 to 1995. Eales and Wessells tested the separability between meats and fish and estimated two models: one non-separable and one separable, including only meats (beef, pork and poultry). In fact, the estimated own-price and expenditure elasticities for beef, pork and poultry (Tables 5.4 to 5.6) estimated in this report are closer to the other estimates for the non-separable than for the separable model. For example, estimates of the own-price elasticities for beef range from -0.549 to -0.605, while Eales and Wessells obtained an estimate of -0.516 from their non-separable model and -0.166 from their separable model. There are other notable differences, including estimates of price elasticities in absolute value that are higher than those estimated by Eales and Wessells from their non-separable model, especially for pork and poultry. Expenditure elasticities are not strictly comparable because the models used by Eales and Wessells include other items in addition to beef, pork and poultry: the present report includes ground meat, ham, sausage and bacon, while Eales and Wessells include three categories of fish. Despite this difference, the estimates of expenditure elasticities are higher than those estimated by Eales and Wessells (1999).

Table 5.7 shows the estimation results of selected demographic variables obtained from the AIDS model. Considering the high expenditure elasticity for beef, it is reasonable to expect that the age of the household head and the number of wage earners in the household should have a positive impact on beef's budget share, while the expenditure on beef tends to decrease as the number of household members increases. The number of children shows negative impacts on the expenditure shares of beef, pork and poultry.

Concluding remarks

This report estimates the Japanese demand for beef, pork, poultry and processed meat products. The own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities of seven meat products are estimated, and some selected demographic variables are analysed. The results indicate that recent Japanese consumption behaviour is similar to that of United States and Canadian consumers, as measured by elasticity estimates.

This study is based on 1997 cross-sectional household survey data. A decade has passed since the beef trade was liberalized. Beef is inelastic to price, and the expenditure elasticity of beef exceeds one. As it is a cross-sectional analysis, this report does not make it clear whether a structural change has occurred. Estimation results from time series data will reveal further information about structural changes to consumer preferences. This report uses expenditure elasticity to show that beef is the only superior good among seven meat commodities. In this regard, as with other reported estimates, Japanese preference in the late 1990s had become closer to that of Western nations.
TABLE 5.4 - Comparison of own-price elasticities

Note: The numbers in parentheses underneeath the elasticity estimates are standard errors.

TABLE 5.5 - Hicksian compensated price elasticities of the AIDS model with inverse Mills ratio TABLE 5.6 - Comparison of expenditure elasticities for meat products

Note: The numbers in parentheses underneath the elasticity estimates are standard errors.

TABLE 5.7 - Coefficients of demographic variables from the AIDS model

Note: An asterisk denotes statistically significance at the 5 percent level.

[8] On the other hand, there are virtually no beef exports.

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Meat and poultry consumption is becoming more important in the Japanese diet. Some studies report that Japanese diets have become increasingly Westernized: as per capita income increases, Japanese people consume more meats and poultry than grain products. As there is a limit to total calorie intake, the ratio of meat products to other foods is becoming larger than that of grain commodities.

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Consumer demand for meat alternatives has grown over the past years as consumers have been on a journey of realization regarding how their lifestyle choices and purchases have an impact on our planet. An increased number of consumers are switching to plant-based diets for many reasons, including: protecting animals, preserving the environment, general health concerns or changing taste preferences. As more consumers seek these alternatives, the market for plant-based proteins is rapidly growing and extending beyond North America and to sources beyond soy and wheat protein.

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Perspectives On Consumer Demands And Future Directions 

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Perspectives On Consumer Demands And Future Directions 

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Price competition - substitutes and changes in taste and preference

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Plant-Based Meat
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Consumer demands for plant-based products have increased in the past few years. According to reports published by the Plant Based Food Association (PBFA) sales from plant based food was higher than 3 billion in 2018. The high numbers reported shows a promising trend for plant-based meat companies. However the trend begs question are we in a meatless revolution? In this article, executives leading plant-based companies share insights on consumer demands over the past few years and future projections.

"Consumer demand for meat alternatives has grown over the past years as consumers have been on a journey of realization regarding how their lifestyle choices and purchases have an impact on our planet. An increased number of consumers are switching to plant-based diets for many reasons, including: protecting animals, preserving the environment, general health concerns or changing taste preferences. As more consumers seek these alternatives, the market for plant-based proteins is rapidly growing and extending beyond North America and to sources beyond soy and wheat protein. The global market for non-soy, gluten-free plant-based proteins is projected to be $1.5 billion by 2022. As a result, manufacturers are looking at plant-based proteins that offer functional, sustainable and nutritional attributes, inclusive of non-GMO and certified organic options. The combination of consumer concerns with an updated approach from the food industry to develop and deliver meat alternatives with excellent flavor, texture and mouthfeel properties has contributed to the large growth in the meat alternatives market. Meat alternatives from early to mid-1900's were developed to replace the center of plate meat products primarily targeting vegans and vegetarians; however, they were not necessarily designed to have an appearance, flavor, or texture matching meat products. Some of these early market products include: tofu, tempeh, seitan and vegetable/rice based burgers and patties. Over time more formats were launched into the marketplace: plant-based sausages, deli slices, crumbles, and chicken nugget formats to name a few. These products contain protein from plants, and were formulated to provide an option for non-meat consumers. As flexitarians, those actively working to reduce meat consumption in their diet, emerge as a larger consumer segment, there is a greater need to produce meat alternatives that closely match the eating experience of beef, chicken and other animal based products. In North America, meat alternatives sales have grown 37% from 2017 to 2019. This represents a growth in dollar sales from $584 M to $800M from April 2017 through April 2019 (per SPINS Natural and Specialty Channel Data, 52 week period ending April 2019). All market and consumer data, as well as technological and financial investments, indicates this market will continue to develop, grow, and improve with additional product formats, flavors through emerging brands. Additionally, the flavors, textures, mouthfeel and consumer experience will continue to become more sophisticated as ingredients, technologies and process innovation develops over the next 10 years. Consumers desire 'meat-identical', meat alternatives and the food industry is working hard to deliver top-notch options." - Julie Emsing Mann, Global Protein Strategy and Innovation, Plant Based Proteins at Ingredion

"We have seen that consumer demand has increased significantly in the past few years for both plant based dairy and meats although the alt-dairy section is much more mature and has higher penetration as can be evidenced just by walking into a grocery store. Younger millennials as well as GenZs are continuing to grow demand and are often driven by topics such as health, climate change and animal welfare. While still relatively small, plant based meats are rapidly growing. The issue I see currently is that there are many "first wave" brands whose products don't meet the needs of consumers (lacking taste and mostly based on proteins from known allergens) and newer products that are primarily focused on beef. There is such a large demand and opportunity for options that are not beef and not in the burger format. From our product voting initiative that we are currently conducting, we see clearly that the consumer do not only want beef. I project that there will be a plant-based meat aisle and deli case in grocery stores with a wide representation of products that are free from meat. I do not believe that the general population will stop eating meat that comes from animals since it's so deeply engrained into many food cultures. The shift away from meat will take generations, and I believe that companies that are able to make a diversity of products that prioritize taste, nutrition, and other consumer needs will lead the way. Given that women drive around 80% of purchasing decisions, it is very problematic that the current plant-based meat companies have such few women on their leadership teams. From my perspective, for products to meet the needs of consumers, they need to be made by the people who make the decisions for those in a household."- Kimberlie Le, Co-founder and CEO Prime Roots

"We observe that consumers outside of traditional vegetarians and vegans are seeking plant based meat alternatives for different reasons. The Good Food Institute reports that 11.9% of U.S. households currently purchase plant-based meat, up from 10.5% a year ago. Another ongoing trend is clean ingredient labels featuring whole vegetables and grains. It's becoming increasingly important for health-conscious shoppers to see recognizable ingredients on product labels. Consumers are also seeking out trusted third-party certifications on packages. Recognizable symbols that indicate Non-GMO, Gluten Free, Vegan, Kosher and others allow shoppers, especially those with special dietary needs, to feel confidence in what they're buying. We foresee that plant-based meat-alternatives that attempt to look and taste like meat will continue to receive attention from consumers, media and businesses. We expect this product category to continue to grow as more consumers and food service operators seek out these products. " -Larry Praeger, CEO Dr. Praeger's

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Plant-based Meat Alternatives: Perspectives On Consumer Demands And Future Directions.

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Consumer demands for plant-based products have increased in the past few years. According to reports published by the Plant Based Food Association (PBFA) sales from plant based food was higher than 3 billion in 2018. The high numbers reported shows a promising trend for plant-based meat companies.

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Amber Waves

Growth in Meat Consumption for Developing and Emerging Economies Surpasses That for the Developed World

Finding: Agricultural Baseline Projections

Per capita meat consumption for beef and veal, pork, and poultry has grown around 3 percent annually in developing and emerging economies (DEE) since the mid-1990s, while growth has been only about 0.4 percent for developed countries. The greatest increase in per capita meat consumption is in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), followed by Southeast Asia and South America. For the MENA region, per capita meat consumption has doubled since the mid-1990s, from 12 to 24 kilograms (kg), mainly reflecting gains in poultry. In Southeast Asia and South America, meat consumption per capita has increased from 10 to 18 kg, and from 55 to 85 kg, respectively. In contrast, per capita meat consumption in developed countries, while higher than in the DEE, has increased by a smaller amount, from 86 to 92 kg.

The various regions of the DEE are the main sources of projected growth for meat and feed demand, leading to projected increases in global trade for these commodities. Important factors for such growth are increasing incomes and urbanization along with an expanding middle class, implying that a greater percentage of the population can afford to consume meat and gain access to meat markets. These factors can change consumption patterns and preferences away from traditional food sources and staples toward greater diet diversification and higher quality protein from meat.

To meet the growing meat and feed products demand, the DEE is projected to both increase meat production and import more feed products and meat. Producing more meat requires expansion of feed grain production, and hence, the amount of cropland would likely be expanded. If projected increases in meat production are unable to meet future demand, countries will likely either import more feed to expand meat production or import more meat products. The increased import demands for feed and meat could increase global prices.

Given that two-thirds of the world's population lives in the DEE, with its relatively faster population and income growth, potential opportunities to increase exports exist for major meat and feed producing countries such as the United States.

This article is drawn from...

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 , by Paul Westcott and James Hansen, USDA, Economic Research Service, February 2015

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Growth in Meat Consumption for Developing and Emerging Economies Surpasses That for the Developed World

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Home Amber Waves Growth in Meat Consumption for Developing and Emerging Economies Surpasses That for the Developed World Finding: Agricultural Baseline Projections Per capita meat consumption for beef and veal, pork, and poultry has grown around 3 percent annually in developing and emerging economies (DEE) since the mid-1990s, while growth has been only about 0.4 percent for developed countries.

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One of the strongest determinants of how much meat people eat is how rich they are. This is at least true when we make cross-country comparisons.

In the scatterplot we see the relationship between per capita meat supply (on the y-axis) and average GDP per capita (on the x-axis). What we see is a strong positive relationship: the richer a country is, the more meat the average person typically eats.

If you press ‘play’ on the interactive chart you can see the trajectory of each country over time. Overall, countries tend to shift upwards and to the right: getting richer and eating more meat.

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Average meat consumption per capita, measured in kilograms per year versus gross domestic product (GDP) per capita measured in 2011 international-$. International-$ corrects for price differences across countries. Figures do not include fish or seafood.

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Meat consumption is related to living standards, diet, livestock production and consumer prices, as well as macroeconomic uncertainty and shocks to GDP. Compared to other commodities, meat is characterised by high production costs and high output prices. Meat demand is associated with higher incomes and a shift - due to urbanisation - to food consumption changes that favour increased proteins from animal sources in diets. While the global meat industry provides food and a livelihood for billions of people, it also has significant environmental and health consequences for the planet. This indicator is presented for beef and veal, pig, poultry, and sheep. Meat consumption is measured in thousand tonnes of carcass weight (except for poultry expressed as ready to cook weight) and in kilograms of retail weight per capita. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors are: 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat, and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.

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we can link this to changing tastes and increasing GDP

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we can link this to changing tastes and increasing GDP

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Global meat production has increased rapidly over the past 50 years – as we see, total production has more than quadrupled since 1961. The chart shows global meat production by region, measured in tonnes.

Regionally, Asia is the largest meat producer, accounting for around 40-45 percent of total meat production. This regional distribution has changed significantly in recent decades. In 1961, Europe and North America were the dominant meat producers, accounting for 42 and 25 percent, respectively. In 1961, Asia produced only 12 percent. By 2013, Europe and North America’s share had fallen to 19 and 15 percent, respectively.

This reduction in production share was despite a large increase in production in absolute terms: Europe’s meat output has approximately doubled over this period, whilst North American output has increased 2.5-fold. Production increases in Asia, however, have been staggering: meat production has increased 15-fold since 1961.

Absolute increases in production in other regions have also been substantial, with output in all regions (with exception to the Caribbean which approximately tripled) growing more than 5-fold over this period.

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Poultry production ranges from small family systems, supporting livelihoods and supplying local or niche markets, to large-scale industrialized enterprises. The latter generally feed into integrated value chains, while the former, often characterized by low output, sell their produce through informal trading networks.

Poultry market prices can vary significantly, influenced by seasonal patterns (e.g. higher prices during festivities), production costs and competition from other products. Production costs are very volatile and can vary significantly from one region to another. They are largely based on the characteristics of the final product (e.g. high-quality meat takes longer to produce, which means higher costs) as well as on feed prices (mainly grain), climatic conditions and the genetic lines used. Poultry tends to be cheaper than other meats because they are efficient feed converters.

In most countries, poultry production is mainly for domestic consumption, but international trade is increasing. Most of the poultry meat available on the global market comes from large-scale, specialized commercial producers. The main importers of poultry meat are developing countries, where cheap, low-quality cuts such as wings, lower legs, necks and giblets sold by the piece make chicken meat more accessible to the average consumer. In contrast, consumers in developed countries tend to buy chicken breasts and thigh meat and, to a lesser extent, drumsticks.

Poultry meat products are usually exported frozen. International trade in eggs is relatively small compared to poultry meat, mainly because it is impossible to freeze them for transport over long distances. The three categories of egg exports are: (i) in-shell table eggs; (ii) in-shell eggs for hatching; and (iii) egg products (in liquid, frozen or dried form).

The evolution and dynamics of world poultry markets are mostly driven by animal disease outbreaks and trade policies. In recent decades, avian influenza and Newcastle disease have profoundly affected poultry meat trade, as has the implementation of trade agreements. Sanitary requirements ultimately determine international poultry trade.

Between 1980 and 2017, the volume of total poultry meat exports increased by a factor of more than 12. Exports of eggs tripled.

The proportion of total poultry meat production traded on the international market doubled between 1993 and 2013.

Meat from indigenous breeds sells at a premium, often 50-100 percent more than broiler meat for whole birds.

In Africa, local chicken meat is often the main poultry product sold in markets. But in Asia and South America, eggs are generally the best-selling items.

Brazil is the major poultry meat exporter, followed by the United States and the Netherlands. The largest importers are China, Japan, Mexico and the United Kingdom.

Only around 3 percent of the global egg production is exported and imported.

Least developed countries are increasingly dependent on imports of poultry meat. Their level of imports increased from 3 percent in 1961 to around 30 percent in 2013.

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Poultry production ranges from small family systems, supporting livelihoods and supplying local or niche markets, to large-scale industrialized enterprises. The latter generally feed into integrated value chains, while the former, often characterized by low output, sell their produce through informal trading networks. Poultry market prices can vary significantly, influenced by seasonal patterns (e.g.

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Feeding the world in a sustainable way is one of our most pressing challenges in the coming decades. Meat plays a pivotal role in this.

Meat is an important source of nutrition for many people around the world. Global demand for meat is growing: over the past 50 years, meat production has more than tripled. The world now produces more than 340 million tonnes each year.

But the production of meat has large environmental impacts - increasing greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural land and freshwater use. One of the world's most pressing challenges is to produce and consume meat, dairy and other protein products in a way that reduces its environmental impacts.

All our charts on Meat and Dairy Production

Related research entries
Seafood production - fish and seafood is another key source of protein and nutrition for populations across the world. How much fish do people eat, and what are the environmental impacts?

Diet compositions - varied diets are essential for good health and nutrition. But the quality and diversity of diets varies significantly across the world. What do people eat?

Micronutrient deficiency - poor dietary diversity means many people lack the essential vitamins and minerals they need for good health. How common is micronutrient deficiency and who is most at risk?

Land use - half of the world's habitable land is used for agriculture, and more than three-quarters of this is used for livestock. In this entry we look in detail at land use across the world.

Global meat production

Global meat production has increased rapidly over the past 50 years - as we see, total production has more than quadrupled since 1961. The chart shows global meat production by region, measured in tonnes.

Regionally, Asia is the largest meat producer, accounting for around 40-45 percent of total meat production. This regional distribution has changed significantly in recent decades. In 1961, Europe and North America were the dominant meat producers, accounting for 42 and 25 percent, respectively. In 1961, Asia produced only 12 percent. By 2013, Europe and North America's share had fallen to 19 and 15 percent, respectively.

This reduction in production share was despite a large increase in production in absolute terms: Europe's meat output has approximately doubled over this period, whilst North American output has increased 2.5-fold. Production increases in Asia, however, have been staggering: meat production has increased 15-fold since 1961.

Absolute increases in production in other regions have also been substantial, with output in all regions (with exception to the Caribbean which approximately tripled) growing more than 5-fold over this period.

Meat production by animal

In the chart we see how meat production has changed by livestock type since 1961.

At a global level we see that the dominant livestock types are poultry, cattle (which includes beef and buffalo meat), pig, and sheep & goat to a lesser extent. However, the distribution of meat types varies significantly across the world; in some countries, other meat types such as wild game, horse, and duck can account for a significant share of total production.

Although production of all major meat types have been increasing in absolute terms, in relative terms the share of global meat types have changed significantly over the last 50 years. In 1961, poultry meat accounted for only 12 percent of global meat production; by 2013 its share has approximately tripled to around 35 percent. In comparison, beef and buffalo meat as a share of total meat production has nearly halved, now accounting for around 22 percent. Pigmeat's share has remained more constant at approximately 35-40 percent.

In the chart we see the global production of cattle (beef and buffalo) meat. Globally, cattle meat production has more than doubled since 1961 - increasing from 28 million tonnes per year to 68 million tonnes in 2014.

The United States is the world's largest beef and buffalo meat producer, producing 11-12 million tonnes in 2014. Other major producers are Brazil and China, followed by Argentina, Australia and India.

Global production of poultry meat has increased rapidly over the last 50 years, growing more than 12-fold between 1961-2014. Global trends in poultry production are shown in the chart.

Like cattle production, the United States is the world's largest producer, producing more than 20 million tonnes in 2014. China and Brazil are also large poultry producers at 18 and 13 million tonnes, respectively. Collectively, Europe is also a major poultry producer with an ouput in 2014 of approximately 19 million tonnes - just below output of the United States.

Since 1961, global pigmeat production has grown 4-5 fold to 112 million tonnes in 2014.

China dominates global output, producing just short of half of total pigmeat in 2014. Increases in Chinese pigmeat production have been rapid, growing around 35-fold from 1.5 million tonnes in 1961 to 54 million tonnes in 2014. The other major producers include the United States, Germany and Spain and Brazil.

Which countries eat the most meat?

Global population has undergone rapid growth, especially in the second half of the 20th century; we may therefore also expect the rapid growth in total meat production as explored in the sections above. But how has meat consumption changed on a per capita basis?

In the chart we see a global map of per capita meat (excluding seafood and fish) consumption, measured in kilograms per person per year. These trends can also be viewed as a time-series in the "chart" tab. As a global average, per capita meat consumption has increased approximately 20 kilograms since 1961; the average person consumed around 43 kilograms of meat in 2014. This increase in per capita meat trends means total meat production has been growing at a much faster than the rate of population growth.

The direction and rate of change across countries has highly variable. Growth in per capita meat consumption has been most marked in countries who have underwent a strong economic transition - per capita consumption in China has grown approximately 15-fold since 1961; rates in Brazil have nearly quadrupled. The major exception to this pattern has been India: dominant lactovegetarian preferences mean per capita meat consumption in 2013 was almost exactly the same as in 1961 at less than 4 kilograms per person.

Meat consumption is highest across high-income countries (with the largest meat-eaters in Australia, consuming around 116 kilograms per person in 2013). The average European and North American consumes nearly 80 kilograms and more than 110 kilograms, respectively. However, changes in consumption in high-income countries have been much slower - with most stagnating or even decreasing over the last 50 years.

Consumption trends across Africa are varied; some countries consume as low as 10 kilograms per person, around half of the continental average. Higher-income nations such as South Africa consume between 60-70 kilograms per person.

Meat consumption tends to rise as we get richer

One of the strongest determinants of how much meat people eat is how rich they are. This is at least true when we make cross-country comparisons.

In the scatterplot we see the relationship between per capita meat supply (on the y-axis) and average GDP per capita (on the x-axis). What we see is a strong positive relationship: the richer a country is, the more meat the average person typically eats.

If you press 'play' on the interactive chart you can see the trajectory of each country over time. Overall, countries tend to shift upwards and to the right: getting richer and eating more meat.

What types of meat do people eat?

What preferences do we have in terms of the types of meat we eat? As a global average, per capita consumption of pigmeat is the highest of meat commodities; in 2013 the average person consumed around 16 kilograms of pigmeat; followed by 15 kilograms of poultry; 9 kilograms of beef/buffalo meat; 2 kilograms of mutton & goat; and only a fraction of other meat types.

Consumption trends vary significantly across the world. In China, pigmeat accounts for around two-thirds of per capita meat consumption. In Argentina, beef and buffalo meat dominates, accounting for more than half of consumption. New Zealanders have a much stronger preference for mutton & goat meat relative to the global average.

In the charts here we see the per capita consumption of different meat types by country.

The visualization details the total number of livestock animals slaughtered for meat in the given year.

This is shown across various types of livestock. Here these figures represent the total number slaughtered for meat production (which does not include those use primarily for dairy or egg production which are not eventually used for meat).

In 2018, an estimated 69 billion chickens; 1.5 billion pigs; 656 million turkeys; 574 million sheep; 479 million goats; and 302 million cattle were killed for meat production.

The figures represent 'livestock counts' - these represent the total number of live animals at a given time in any year. This is not to be confused with figures above which represent the total number of livestock animals slaughtered or used for meat in any given year.

Milk production across the world

Per capita milk consumption

Total egg production

Per capita egg consumption

The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) prepare 'Food Balance Sheets' (FBS) across all food commodities at global, regional and national levels. Food Balance Sheets map the quantity of food commodities (measured as their primary equivalents, for example, "wheat and products" represents the sum of all products derived from wheat) from the production level through to the remaining quantity left for human food. This is measured in mass quantities - such as tonnes or kilograms.

These sheets account for losses and allocations in the food system, including imports, exports, stock variations, seed, animal feed, other (industrial uses), and food losses. The remaining commodities after correction for these diversions is defined as 'food supply'. To derive the average per capita food supply, this total figure is divided by the population size. This figure can be considered to be the average level of food intake however it does not account for food wastage at the consumer level (i.e. in households or restaurants).

Conversion ratios or conversion efficiency are used to measure the ratio of feed inputs (either in the form of food crops, or pasture/grazing land) to output in the form of food product.

Feed conversion ratio (FCR) is used to measure the mass quantity of feed required to produce one kilogram of animal product (e.g. meat). For example, on average, we have to feed cattle 25 kilograms of feed to produce one kilogram of beef or buffalo meat - this would give us an FCR value of 0.04 (calculated as output (1 kilogram) / input (25 kilograms).

Protein and energy efficiency are calculated as the quantity of protein/energy in animal feed which are effectively converted into protein/energy in the resultant animal products. For example, if we feed a chicken 500 grams of protein and only get 100 grams out in chicken meat, we define this protein conversion efficiency as 20 percent (calculated as output (100 grams) / input (500 grams)). The same calculation process applies for energy conversion efficiency using caloric inputs and outputs.

Environmental footprints, such as those defined as land use requirements or greenhouse gas emissions per unit mass, protein or calorie of food products are calculated using a process called life-cycle analysis (LCA). LCA methods are used to try to fully capture all environmental impacts across the value chain, and can include those up and downstream of production.

Standard food footprints - and those referenced in this entry - often set boundary conditions called 'cradle-to-farmgate' which means that all impacts in terms of pre-farm and on-farm activities are included.

This includes food chain inputs such as fertilizer production and application, seed production, energy use on-farm, feed production, manure production (if used as fertilizer), manure management, farm infrastructure construction.

Life-cycle analyses (LCAs) attempt to fully quantity all such inputs necessary for the production of a food production. For example, a greenhouse gas emissions LCA for beef can include: emissions from fertilizer production, and application used for the production of animal feed; on-farm energy use associated with tilling, irrigation (if needed), transport of feed from field to livestock area, and enteric fermentation emissions produced from cattle, and barn/housing energy requirements. By deriving then summing the emissions associated with each stage and dividing by the total output (in kilograms of meat, units of protein or kilocalories), we can calculate the total emissions per unit mass/protein/kilocalorie.

Data: Covers Production-level data in terms of kilograms of meat & seafood by type; livestock numbers and yields; and per capita food supply of animal products

Geographical coverage: Global - by country and world region

Time span: 1961 onwards

Available at: Online at FAOSTAT here.

Data: Livestock counts over the long-term

Geographical coverage: Global, United States, Canada and continental regions

Time span: 1890-1998

Available at: Online https://www.pbl.nl/en/image/links/hyde.

Data: Capture fishery and aquaculture production and consumption data by country and species

Geographical coverage: Global, Regional and by country

Time span: 1961 onwards

Available at: Online here.

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Feeding the world in a sustainable way is one of our most pressing challenges in the coming decades. Meat plays a pivotal role in this. Meat is an important source of nutrition for many people around the world. Global demand for meat is growing: over the past 50 years, meat production has more than tripled.

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- can talk about how some countries make trades when they bring other goods to the table
-can talk about how some DD of some goods have been affected when red meat has been known to be linked to cardiovascular events.
-can talk about how veggies like kale or carrots have been boosted by trends and are used by diets.( taste and preference)
-The prices of these foods also vary depending on the quality, organic or not...etc.
-New alternatives to meat have come about such as crops that are high in protein such as soybeans.
-Meats arent that environmentally friendly to produce, and its due to the methane gas produced when cow farts, this damages the Ozone layer and aids global warming, this is a "negative externality", and not everyone knows this because of imperfect information, and once people are more educated on this subject, sales will decrease.