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Watch dog of the government. The guarantee of free press carries the obligation of providing the audience information upon which base its political decisions. Examples include making sure the school board is functioning properly- not changing policy without notice, and watching inconsistency in spending.

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Through advertising, the press informs the public about products, goods, services in addition to events. Businesses, industrial, and agricultural news also does this.

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People need diversion from the daily news and information. It features stories on performers, video game trends, or a family fun event.

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Source of conversation. It's something in common with strangers. Examples are a wardrobe malfunction or tax kick back story.

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Provides forum in which all sorts of ideas are presented. Includes editorial pages (letters to editors, columns about community or national events, community blogs, etc)

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Determine what we talk about as individuals and address as a nation. "While journalists don't tell us what to do or think, they tell us what to think about."

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Most of these stories are reactionary, so it always need improvement. Watches society's horizons. News Stories include information about technology, youth culture, lifestyles, what is going to happen in the future.

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Media keeps an accurate record of local, national, and world news. Examples include marriages, obituaries, property transfers, sport scores, election results, etc.

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Senate Leaders Agree to Vote on Short-Term Debt Ceiling Increase

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Senate Leaders Agree to Vote on Short-Term Debt Ceiling Increase

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This particular article informs the audience about the decisions on voting for short-term extension which will cause the debt to increase. It discusses how both political parties (republican and democratic) need to compromise on accommodating debt.

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Senate Approves Bill to Raise Debt Ceiling and Avert Default, for Now (Published 2021)

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An agreement struck on Thursday allows the government to cover its expenses through early December, but does little to address the crux of the partisan stalemate.

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The article discusses how Democrats and Republicans are at an odds on raising the country's deficit spending. It includes politics because it involves the two main political parties and their decision.

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Denmark also has a debt limit, but it is set so high that raising it is generally not an issue. Most other countries do not. In Poland, public debt cannot exceed 60 percent of gross domestic product.

For many years, raising the debt ceiling was routine. But as the political environment has become more polarized, brinkmanship over the debt ceiling has increased. The House used to employ the "Gephardt Rule," which required the debt limit to be raised when a budget resolution was passed, but that was for the most part phased out during the 1990s.

During the 2011 debt ceiling battle, some argued that President Barack Obama had the power to unilaterally lift the debt ceiling. Former President Bill Clinton said at the time that if he were still in office he would invoke the 14th Amendment, which says the validity of U.S. debt shall not be questioned, raise the debt ceiling on his own and force the courts to stop him.

Mr. Obama and his lawyers disagreed and opted against that approach. After leaving office, Mr. Obama acknowledged that he and Treasury officials considered several creative contingency plans, such as minting a $1 trillion coin to pay off some of the national debt. In a 2017 interview, he described the idea as "wacky."

Understand the U.S. Debt Ceiling

The What is the debt limit? debt limit is a cap on the total amount of money that the federal government is authorized to borrow via U.S. Treasury bills and savings bonds to fulfill its financial obligations. Because the U.S. runs budget deficits, it must borrow huge sums of money to pay its bills.

Technically, the U.S. hit its debt limit at the end of July. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been using When will the debt limit be breached? "extraordinary measures" since then to delay a default. Yellen warned of "catastrophic" consequences if the debt limit isn't raised before a default, which the Treasury estimates would happen on Oct. 18.

Ms. Yellen What are those consequences? told Congress that inaction could lead to a self-inflicted economic recession and a financial crisis. She also said that Social Security payments could be delayed, soldiers would not know when their paychecks were coming and interest rates on credit cards, car loans and mortgages would rise.

How much debt does the U.S. currently have? The national debt now stands at $28.43 trillion, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation's live tracker. The borrowing cap is set at $28.4 trillion, leaving the government with negligible wiggle room.

Why does the U.S. limit its borrowing? According to the Constitution, Congress must authorize borrowing. The debt limit was instituted in the early 20th century so the Treasury did not need to ask for permission each time it needed to issue bonds to pay bills.

Do other countries do it this way? Denmark also has a debt limit, but it is set so high that raising it is generally not an issue. Most other countries do not. In Poland, public debt cannot exceed 60 percent of gross domestic product.

For many years, raising the debt ceiling was routine. But as the political environment has become more polarized, Congress has been playing an Why is raising the debt limit so difficult? increasingly dangerous political game over the debt ceiling.

It often seems that the risk of an accidental default outweighs any fiscal responsibility that the debt limit encourages. However, it would take an act of Congress to do away with the debt limit, Would it be a good idea to do away with the debt limit? and finding agreement there is never easy.

Ms. Yellen dismissed the idea of minting such a coin to deal with the debt limit at a House Financial Services hearing, arguing that the only way to address the borrowing cap is to for Congress to lift or suspend it.

The lack of a replacement is one of the main reasons the debt ceiling has persisted. The United States could follow the Denmark model and raise the debt limit stratospherically high. Some have also suggested that it could also force the limit to increase in lock step with new funding.

Few lawmakers from either party enjoy a vote on the debt ceiling, and the default that would be caused by a failure to raise it would lead to an economic catastrophe. With political polarization in the United States showing no signs of abating, it often seems that the risk of an accidental default outweighs any fiscal responsibility that the debt limit encourages.

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Explaining the U.S. Debt Limit and Why It Became a Bargaining Tool

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Denmark also has a debt limit, but it is set so high that raising it is generally not an issue. Most other countries do not. In Poland, public debt cannot exceed 60 percent of gross domestic product. For many years, raising the debt ceiling was routine.

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The article focuses on advertising an AI that can do manicures under ten minutes. This correlates to economic function because it focuses on articles advocating and promoting businesses, products, and services.

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Start-ups are using technology to take a robotic approach to manicures, offering a simple way to provide foolproof nail polish.

Credit... James Yang

This article is part of our new series, Currents, which examines how rapid advances in technology are transforming our lives.
Omri Moran was on time for a first date, but the young woman, inexplicably, was late. She finally arrived, but skirted the question of her tardiness, saying "Never mind, you wouldn't get it," Mr. Moran recalled.

Not easily deterred, Mr. Moran, then the head of a geo-tracking start-up, persisted and discovered the reason: His date had ruined, and unsuccessfully tried to remedy, the new manicure she had gotten in anticipation of their meeting.

At the time of the date in 2016, he in fact didn't get it, but the moment also provided an epiphany of sorts. "I'm one of those people when they see things that are bad, I just start thinking of solutions," Mr. Moran said. "And I just wondered why it couldn't be automated. And that's kind of how we got rolling."

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The device made by the start-up Nimble works with artificial intelligence and a robotic arm to offer 10-minute manicures. Credit... Nimble

He envisioned a robotic approach to manicures and began working on his idea that year, which morphed into the company Nimble. The concept, which two other start-ups are separately working on, essentially seeks to offer a simple way to provide foolproof nail polish. The companies, Clockwork and Coral, in addition to Mr. Moran's Nimble, have developed distinct technologies anddifferent business models to offer customers a quick color change.

But don't give up your regular appointment just yet. While all three companies have secured substantial outside financing, the devices are still being tested and altered before their full market debuts. And none of the three are offering a full salon-type manicure with shaping and buffing. Still, they could ultimately upend the growing nail care market.

As a market sector, manicures are a goal worth pursuing. Estimates peg the nail care market at close to $10 billion, and it could reach as high as $11.6 billion by 2027. While the size of the market for color alone has not been teased out, investors find it enticing. As Julie Bornstein, the founder of the shopping app the Yes, who has invested in Clockwork, said, the idea resonated because manicures could be time consuming: "I personally don't like spending 40 minutes going to the nail salon."

The technology incorporates some hardware - such as a robotic arm in some instances - to paint the nails, with software that relies on machine learning to distinguish a fingernail from the surrounding skin. Each company uses a different approach, yet essentially relies on the scanning of thousands of nail shapes to create a database. Cameras within the devices take photos of the nails of the individual user, a process repeated each time a manicure is done even on the same person. During the development, all three have tried to minimize the number of moving parts and rely more on software, because moving parts can break down over time.

Clockwork plans to make its devices available in offices, retail stores and apartment buildings for $10 per polish application. The company opened this store, its first, in San Francisco on Friday. Standing is Renuka Apte, one of the company's founders. Credit... Jessie Meria

Clockwork is the first to hit the market, although in a limited way. Last Friday, the company opened in a storefront space in the Marina District of San Francisco, essentially a pop-up location expected to be open for at least six months. Clients will pay $7.99 to test the device, which is slightly bigger than a microwave. The soft opening follows a 2019 test run in their office of a prior iteration with employees of Dropbox, where the Clockwork founders Renuka Apte and Aaron Feldstein first met. (At the time, the two companies were located blocks away from each other.)

The pop-up is the culmination of four years of work.Ms. Apte and Mr. Feldstein had initially started their company in 2017, Ms. Apte said, sifting through roughly 70 ideas before settling on what they called "minicures."

Their tabletop device, destined for stores, offices and apartment complexes, incorporates a mix of computer vision and artificial intelligence to paint nails. Rather than use a robotic arm, their machine incorporates what's known as a gantry, an older technology that relies on multiaxis movements to apply polish.

They chose the corporate name of Clockwork, which is a play on words addressing the penchant for regular manicures as well as the technical intricacy of a clock. The two had worked without pay until late 2019, when they secured $3.2 million in their first round of funding.

Coral, another company trying to upend the salon industry, obtained $4.3 million in venture funding around the same time. But Bradley Leong, the company's chief executive and co-founder, said that because they could not get the device's price as low as they had hoped in its current iteration, they were making it semirobotic to decrease the cost.

Nimble has incorporated so-called computer vision to work with artificial intelligence and a robotic arm to offer simple, 10-minute manicures in a device also close to the size of a toaster. To build brand awareness, the company, which started in Tel Aviv but is now headquartered in Brooklyn, recently ran a Kickstarter campaign and has secured$10 million inseed financingas well.

As with any robotics, there is the inevitable question of whether jobs will be replaced by the devices. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2019 there were 155,300 jobs; average pay was $27,870 per year or $13.40 per hour (before tips). Without any disruption, a growth rate of 19 percent is expected.

None of the futuristic machines shape nails, so that part of salon service will not be disrupted. Ms. Apte said she did not anticipate any job losses at salons, because her device would function as an extra service. Mr. Leong also said that he did not expect his company's device would put people out of work because it didn't substitute for a full manicure.

The three companies have different business models. Clockwork wants to maintain ownership, withits devices available for a quick change of color in offices, apartment buildings or retail stores for about $10, Ms. Apte said. Nimble's product is geared for home use, and the company plans to sell directly to consumers and in retail outlets, Mr. Moran said, with an intended price of $399. (Those who invested through Kickstarter were eligible for a pre-order price of $249). Coral is also pursuing consumers, but its model is in flux, Mr. Leong said, as it adjusts the device to keep prices below $100.

The process is quick. Nimble, Mr. Moran said,will polish and dry nails within the 10 minutes, using its proprietary formula. Ms. Apte acknowledged that while Clockwork's manicure might take under 10 minutes, drying time is additional.

Nails after polishing at the new Clockwork store. Credit... Jessie Meria

While all the founders said their devices were safe, they were not required to undergo the type of arduous review that, say, certain medical devices would, according to Tricia Kaufman, a health care and life sciences lawyer and partner at the Stinson law firm in Minneapolis.

Mr. Feldstein, the Clockwork co-founder, said that their device has multiple safety features, including a plastic-tipped cartridge that won't pierce a finger. It will not be connected to the internet, so the hacking threat - with polish running amok - is curtailed. Ultimately, the consumer is the last defense because a hand can easily be pulled out.

The founders all seem to be contemplating brand extensions. None of the companies, for example, have yet to offer pedicures.

But one way to expand their reach seems clear. While women traditionally have gotten manicures, men comprise a largely untapped market that may be receptive to the automation. According to Ms. Apte of Clockwork, "We hear that they would rather go get it done by a robot then to sit in a nail salon."

As for Mr. Moran, that first date was worth waiting for. Dar Moran is now his wife. And, he said, "she was customer No. 1."

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Want Your Nails Done? Let a Robot Do It.

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Start-ups are using technology to take a robotic approach to manicures, offering a simple way to provide foolproof nail polish. This article is part of our new series, Currents , which examines how rapid advances in technology are transforming our lives. Omri Moran was on time for a first date, but the young woman, inexplicably, was late.

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The article promotes the book, The Taking of Jemima Boone, as the article depicts the book in a good light by giving them a review it piques the interests of the readers to buy and read the book.

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nonfiction

The kidnapping of Jemima Boone, depicted by the Swiss painter Karl Bodmer, circa 1852. Credit... Karl Bodmer

When you purchase an independently reviewed book through our site, we earn an affiliate commission.

THE TAKING OF JEMIMA BOONE
Colonial Settlers, Tribal Nations, and the Kidnap That Shaped America
By Matthew Pearl

In "The Taking of Jemima Boone," the historical mystery author Matthew Pearl makes his nonfiction debut with a factual thriller about the kidnapping of the famous frontiersman Daniel Boone's daughter Jemima in 1776. Once a popular subject of 19th-century artists and authors, and the inspiration for James Fenimore Cooper's "The Last of the Mohicans," the episode will be less familiar to most 21st-century American readers.

As Pearl's narrative opens, 13-year-old Jemima Boone is canoeing on the Kentucky River on an idyllic summer day, along with the two teenage daughters of a fellow settler, Richard Callaway. The girls were taking a risk by straying from the wooden fortification of Boonesboro that their families - led by Daniel Boone - had carved out of the wilderness only the previous year. Native Americans had already issued a brutal warning against settler incursion into the Kentucky region in a 1773 attack that involved the torture and killing of Boone's son James.

The abduction of the three girls took place 10 days after the signing of the Declaration of Independence and was a continuation of a struggle over lands west of the Appalachians involving settlers and Native American tribes, as well as politicians and armed forces, both British and American. The surprising intimacy of life on the frontier, despite a backdrop of violence and mayhem, is encapsulated in the moment the captives were brought to shore, where the Cherokee leader Hanging Maw awaited them: "The fact that he and Jemima already knew each other could mean salvation or death."

The ensuing rapid trek through the wilderness by Hanging Maw's small band of warriors, pursued by a rescue party from Boonesboro, has become the stuff of frontier romances.

Hanging Maw and the four Shawnee braves in his party knew they had valuable hostages: "We have done pretty well for old Boone this time - got all his young squaws," as Hanging Maw supposedly put it. They aimed for the Shawnee townships, and Boone and his men soon picked up their trail. The several days' chase has all the elements of popular American Indian captivity narratives: The feisty girls took risks as they left signs for their rescuers to follow; the Native warriors adopted ruses to thwart the uncanny pathfinding skills of their white pursuers; conflict broke out among the captors, with some arguing that the girls should be killed for having left clues behind them.

Hanging Maw took the lead in protecting them, and it is at this juncture that Pearl introduces another, romantic thread into the narrative. Might the Cherokee brave have found Jemima attractive? Her long dark hair signaled "spiritual strength" in his tribal tradition, and he began to call her "my squaw." He requested her to comb through his own hair for lice, something Jemima did willingly as she hoped to "conciliate" him and delay the whole party as much as possible.

The notion that Hanging Maw "fell in love with Jemima," and perhaps thought of making her his wife, was propagated in the aftermath of the abduction and was a popular motif in 19th-century renderings of the episode. From a storytelling point of view, it is irresistible; one suspects that the Boone family found it flattering. One of Jemima's cousins composed a poem depicting Hanging Maw as a worthy suitor for Jemima in terms that evoked the "noble savage" trope: "a Chief in Manhood's vigorous prime." In her old age, Jemima continued to thrill younger generations with stories of the moment when she groomed the Indian warrior's black locks.

There is no reason to question that the warriors treated the girls as well as they could under the circumstances, but the rumor that Hanging Maw was besotted with Boone's daughter seems to be entirely a construct of white settler gossip in the published and unpublished sources consulted by Pearl. More revealing are the parallel accounts of captured settlers that Pearl weaves into his narrative to provide historical context, in particular the well-known story of Mary Jemison, abducted with her family in rural Pennsylvania in the mid-18th century and adopted by Seneca Indians. Her biography exposes the inadequacy of the conventional depiction of westward expansion featuring white victors and doomed Native American resisters. Jemison opens a window into a vanished frontier world of blurred family lines and shifting loyalties, as white captives were sometimes adopted by tribesmen in compensation for kinsmen lost in the frontier wars.

Pearl meticulously reconstructs this world of tribes and settlers, caught between British and American military ambitions, interacting in a Kentucky that for a brief moment functioned virtually as a "shared space." "The Taking of Jemima Boone" presents a fascinating picture of frontier Kentucky in which, contemporaneously with incidents of violence and atrocities, Native Americans and settlers intermarried, raised interracial offspring, traded, shared survival skills and changed alliances, as all struggled to survive.

Jemima's rescue takes place less than halfway through the book, and she recedes into the background as the story shifts to conflict between Daniel Boone and two men: the Shawnee leader Blackfish, whose son was killed, possibly by Boone, during the rescue, and Richard Callaway, who competed with Boone for leadership of Boonesboro and who would subsequently accuse him of trying to sell out the struggling fortification to the British. These conflicts are intertwined with the geopolitical ambitions of Britain and the United States in the War of Independence; as the two nations vied for control of Kentucky, the survival of Boonesboro was seen as pivotal to the outcome.

All this is a lot for the reader to take in. Pearl opens "The Taking of Jemima Boone" with a quote to the effect that while a novelist can resort to his imagination, a historian is "fettered down to the record before him." But effective history writing is more than just stringing together facts, and a novelist's techniques can and should be used. In his historical mysteries, Pearl skillfully introduces back story by taking the reader on the emotional journey of a main character, whose private musings seamlessly move between the present and the past. In "The Taking of Jemima Boone," by contrast, he has a tendency to interject essential historical context into the story rather abruptly, diverting us from the characters and events at hand. New characters are introduced frequently, together with their back stories - even in the midst of action scenes, such as those recounting Boone's pursuit of the three girls - with the result that the suspense is punctured and narrative momentum is lost.

Pearl writes that literary and artistic interpretations of Jemima's kidnapping fail to capture the full "verve, excitement and stakes of these original events," telling us, in effect, that fact is often stranger than fiction. This is true, but fact is also usually much more complicated. That is a challenge for historians who wish to tell a compelling story, and their problems are further multiplied if they choose, as Pearl has done, a period and events that have dropped from the realm of common knowledge.

The story of Jemima's abduction, an exciting and revealing episode in the history of America's westward expansion, deserves to be retold. To his credit, Pearl resists oversimplifying a history that has been too often presented as a frontier romance, showing us that it is as much about the women, children and Native Americans who played a part in it as the famous men who ensured it would be remembered.

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What the Kidnapping of Daniel Boone's Daughter Tells Us About Life on the Frontier

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nonfiction When you purchase an independently reviewed book through our site, we earn an affiliate commission. THE TAKING OF JEMIMA BOONE Colonial Settlers, Tribal Nations, and the Kidnap That Shaped America By Matthew Pearl In "The Taking of Jemima Boone," the historical mystery author Matthew Pearl makes his nonfiction debut with a factual thriller about the kidnapping of the famous frontiersman Daniel Boone's daughter Jemima in 1776.

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The article focuses on a singer named Mitski released a new single and the European and North America tour dates. This type of article removes the portrayal of serious news and focuses on music and entertainment.

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Let the Mitski renaissance begin.

The singer-songwriter marked her return on Tuesday with a new single and music video, titled "Working for the Knife," as well as the announcement of a spring 2022 tour in North America and Europe. Though Mitski released a song for horror film "The Turning," collaborated with Allie X and provided the soundtrack for graphic novel "This Is Where We Fall" in 2020, "Working for the Knife" is her first major release since her 2018 album "Be the Cowboy."

Over synth-heavy instrumentation, "Working for the Knife" seems to be a somber reflection on growing up and falling victim to the non-stop culture of work inherent in capitalist societies. The track was produced by Mitski's longtime collaborator Patrick Hyland.

"It's about going from being a kid with a dream, to a grown up with a job, and feeling that somewhere along the way you got left behind," Mitski said of the track in a statement. "It's being confronted with a world that doesn't seem to recognize your humanity, and seeing no way out of it."

The song's cinematic music video, directed by Zia Anger with photography direction by Ashley Conner, was filmed at performance venue The Egg in Albany, N.Y. The video features Mitski licking a railing and frantically dancing on stage, among other things, telling the story of an artist exploiting her deepest emotions for the entertainment of others.

Along with the release of "Working for the Knife," Mitski also announced a North American and European tour, marking her first live shows since her Central Park SummerStage concerts in September 2019. The tour will kick off in February 2022, and tickets go on sale Oct. 8 at noon ET. See Mitski's upcoming tour dates below.

Thu. Feb. 17, 2022 - Asheville, NC @ The Orange Peel

Fri. Feb. 18, 2022 - Raleigh, NC @ The Ritz

Sat. Feb. 19, 2022 - Atlanta, GA @ The Eastern

Mon. Feb. 21, 2022 - Birmingham, AL @ Iron City

Tue. Feb. 22, 2022 - New Orleans, LA @ Civic Theatre

Thu. Feb. 24, 2022 - Houston, TX @ The Lawn at White Oak Music Hall

Fri. Feb. 25, 2022 - Dallas, TX @ The Factory in Deep Ellum

Sat. Feb. 26, 2022 - Austin, TX @ ACL Live at Moody Theater

Mon. Feb. 28, 2022 - Phoenix, AZ @ The Van Buren

Thu. Mar. 3, 2022 - Los Angeles, CA @ Shrine Exposition Hall

Fri. Mar. 4, 2022 - Oakland, CA @ Fox Theater

Mon. Mar. 7, 2022 - Portland, OR @ Arlene Schnitzer Concert Hall

Wed. Mar. 9, 2022 - Seattle, WA @ Moore Theatre

Sat. Mar. 12, 2022 - Denver, CO @ Ogden Theatre

Mon. Mar. 14, 2022 - St. Paul, MN @ Palace Theatre

Tue. Mar. 15, 2022 - Milwaukee, WI @ The Riverside Theater

Thu. Mar. 17, 2022 - Detroit, MI @ Royal Oak Music Theatre

Fri. Mar. 18, 2022 - Toronto, ON @ Massey Hall

Sat. Mar. 19, 2022 - Montreal, QC @ St-Jean-Baptiste Church

Mon. Mar. 21, 2022 - Boston, MA @ TBD

Thu. Mar. 24, 2022 - New York, NY @ Radio City Music Hall

Fri. Mar. 25, 2022 - Philadelphia, PA @ Franklin Music Hall

Sat. Mar. 26, 2022 - Washington, DC @ The Anthem

Tue. Mar. 29, 2022 - Pittsburgh, PA @ Stage AE

Wed. Mar. 30, 2022 - Louisville, KY @ Old Forester's Paristown Hall

Thu. Mar. 31, 2022 - Nashville, TN @ Ryman Auditorium

Thu. April 21, 2022 - Bristol, UK @ Marble Factory

Fri. April 22, 2022 - Leeds, UK @ University Stylus

Sat. April 23, 2022 - Glasgow, UK @ Queen Margaret Union

Mon. April 25, 2022 - Dublin, IE @ Vicar Street

Tue. April 26, 2022 - Manchester, UK @ O2 Ritz

Thu. April 28, 2022 - London, UK @ The Roundhouse

Sat. April 30, 2022 - Brussels, BE @ Botanique

Mon. May 2, 2022 - Tourcoing, FR @ Le Grand Mix

Tue. May 3, 2022 - Paris, FR @ Le Cabaret Sauvage

Wed. May 4, 2022 - Amsterdam, NL @ Paradiso

Fri. May 6, 2022 - Zurich, CH @ Les Docks

Sat. May 7, 2022 - Lausanne, CH @ Les Docks

Mon. May 9, 2022 - Berlin, DE @ Metropol

Tue. May 10, 2022 - Copenhagen, DK @ Vega

Wed. May 11, 2022 - Stockholm, SE @ Nalen

Thu. May 12, 2022 - Oslo, NO @ Rockefeller Music Hall

Sat. May 14, 2022 - Hamburg, DE @ Fabrik

Sun. May 15, 2022 - Cologne, DE @ Stollwerck

Tue. May 17, 2022 - Vienna, AU @ WUK

Wed. May 18, 2022 - Prague, CZ @ Rock Cafe

Thu. May 19, 2022 - Munich, DE @ Strom

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Mitski Returns With New Single and North American, European Tour Dates

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Let the Mitski renaissance begin. The singer-songwriter marked her return on Tuesday with a new single and music video, titled "Working for the Knife," as well as the announcement of a spring 2022 tour in North America and Europe.

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The article focuses on the new latest show that gained popularity among the youth groups. It correlates with entertainments because binge watching TV shows is a time of relaxing.

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Binge-worthy: K-drama Squid Game is a colourful nightmare

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Entertainment News - As a counterpoint to the dark themes, the sets and costumes are bright and vibrant. . Read more at straitstimes.com.

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The article talks about the popularize TV show teens are talking about on social media. This correlates on social function because people who watched the show have similarities.

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Binge-worthy: K-drama Squid Game is a colourful nightmare

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Entertainment News - As a counterpoint to the dark themes, the sets and costumes are bright and vibrant. . Read more at straitstimes.com.

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Protests and Riots Fueled by Grief, Fear, and Anger

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Protests and Riots Fueled by Grief, Fear, and Anger

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The individuals of the BIPOC community speaks for themselves to raise awareness on systematic racism. This article sets the mood and thoughts the writer is trying to convey for the readers, which is to be angry and seek justice.

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In this article, ideas and opinions about using Facebook is presented.

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"Stop using Facebook!" one reader urges. Another admits to a possible addiction but finds it useful. Readers offer varied opinions about the company.

To the Editor:
Re " Facebook Apps Crash, Leaving Billions Cut Off " (front page, Oct. 5):

Count me among those who didn't notice much wrong on Monday. I do have a Facebook account, but the outage must have fallen during one of the 8,760 hours I do not spend on the platform every year (that is, all of them).

I did notice, however, that the air outdoors was fresh and moist, and a local community garden nearby was redolent and presented beauty to the eye.

Michael Bazigos
New York
To the Editor:
Monday's social media power outage got me wondering. Am I a Facebook addict? Perhaps. But, if so, I make no apologies.

To be clear, I recognize all of the negative social effects of this platform, many of which were revealed in the most recent episode of "60 Minutes." In addition, I fully understand that Facebook is motivated as much by making a profit as promoting social good.

Nevertheless, for people like me, who for a variety of legitimate reasons choose not to buy and use a smartphone, I depend on Facebook almost daily to keep in touch with friends, family and literally hundreds of former students.

Moreover, with the decline of newspaper readership, the Facebook platform allows me to share my op-eds and letters with a larger and more diverse audience. And social media is therapeutic, providing me with an effective tool for coping with and gaining insights into the sadness and tragedy of our nation's current political environment.

In short, its destructive impact notwithstanding, I depend on Facebook. If that is addiction, I plead guilty.

Richard Cherwitz
Austin, Texas
The writer is professor emeritus at the Moody College of Communication, University of Texas.
To the Editor:
The Facebook outage undoubtedly caused irreparable harm to many users who had to suffer the hardship of enduring a day without seeing a photo of what their friends had for lunch.

Frances Haugen, a former Facebook product manager, revealed her identity on Sunday and spoke with "60 Minutes." Credit... Robert Fortunato for CBS News/60MINUTES

To the Editor:
Re " Facebook Accused of Putting Profits First " (Business, Oct. 4):

I was "shocked, shocked" when I read this. The inside information and documents provided by a whistle-blower, Frances Haugen, reveal how that company harms children, undermines democracy and lies to cover up what it does. Sadly, coverage of this story does not link Facebook's behavior to the practices of far too many large corporations.

How many people became gravely ill and/or died because the tobacco companies hid the knowledge that their products are deadly? How much of the climate crisis could have been lessened if the fossil fuel industry had been honest about what it knew decades ago? Corporations will almost always put profits above everything else.

We need much stronger regulations, transparency rules and enforcement to make companies act responsibly. If corporations are people (as the Supreme Court has ruled), their officials should face criminal charges when they injure the public.

Marvin Ciporen
Brooklyn
To the Editor:
Let's consider the following: America suffers from an obesity epidemic. Suppose people went to the supermarket and put chocolate, soda, potato chips and other processed food in their carts, and Frances Haugen, a do-gooder, switched out the customer's choices and replaced them with whole grain breads, nuts, and healthy fruit and vegetables, because she knows what is best for America and the world. Would this be tolerated?

Facebook provides a legal, free service that ranges from annoying to interesting to essential. I am a Facebook shareholder, and I expect Facebook and its employees to run Facebook in a legal way to maximize shareholder value.

Ms. Haugen was a Facebook employee who owed a duty of loyalty to her employer. She claims she wants to fix Facebook - by not giving its users what they want? Profit over safety? Safety from what?

Ms. Haugen is not a whistle-blower or a hero. She is a disloyal employee.

Michael G. Brautigam
Tallinn, Estonia
To the Editor:
Facebook is in the news again. As in the past, there is a great deal of talk about the need for government oversight, and the necessity of federal legislation. But it is likely that Congress will not agree on any oversight, or any oversight it does approve will be watered down and not help in the long run.

Rather than waiting for the government to enact rules regarding social media, it is time for people to take action. Stop using Facebook! The only reason that Facebook possesses such power to have an effect on elections, or to divide social groups, is that people give it that power by spending time on the website. So, stop using Facebook, and take its power (and profits) away.

Don't wait for the government to solve this problem - it probably won't.

Michael Dannenberg
Northport, N.Y.

To the Editor:
Re " Facebook Is Weaker Than We Knew," by Kevin Roose (The Shift column, Business, Oct. 5):

It is becoming increasingly clear that Facebook Inc. in its current form is unmanageable and unsustainable, both from a societal and capitalist perspective. The platform's damaging effect on democracy, civil society and mental health is by now well documented, and regulatory pressure to prevent further consolidation of its monopoly will only increase.

The audience for the core facebook.com platform is aging, and it no longer has either engagement or enthusiasm from its younger user demographic. In my opinion, the only reasonable and strategic move is for the company to shut down the core facebook.com platform and become a holding company for the other divisions (Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus). By diversifying away from advertising to other monetization methods such as commerce services, payments processing and gaming, Facebook just might save itself by killing the golden goose.

Monica Varman
Redwood City, Calif.

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Opinion | Just What Is Happening With Facebook?

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"Stop using Facebook!" one reader urges. Another admits to a possible addiction but finds it useful. Readers offer varied opinions about the company. To the Editor: Re " Facebook Apps Crash, Leaving Billions Cut Off " (front page, Oct. 5): Count me among those who didn't notice much wrong on Monday.

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In this article, two sisters do something amazing which can be portrayed as a national event. These two girls make it to the headlines all across the country depicted as two high school students who stood out in a sport dominated by men.

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CHICAGO (WLS) -- Football has always been a sport dominated by guys, but two Chicago sisters are showing the guys a thing or two this season.

De La Salle Institute in the Bronzeville neighborhood is all about girl power these days with not one, but two standout female kickers who are playing high school football.

ABC7's Ryan Chiaverini headed to a practice with the Loza sisters to see how it's done.

De La Salle is the third oldest Catholic school in the city of Chicago, but the Meteors are making history for a different reason this fall.

This is Mia Loza's second season as the Meteors' starting varsity kicker.

"I'd say she's good from anywhere from the 40," said De La Salle Institute Football Coach Mike Boehm.

Coach Boehm's recruiting revelation happened as he watched Loza, who was a seasoned soccer player, at a practice last year.

"I was kicking the soccer ball, like shooting from long range. He saw my foot and he was like, 'let's try a field goal, maybe you could do it,'" Mia recalled.

"Hey, maybe she could help us. So you go over there, you bring your long snapper and your holder and she just starts booming 'em," Boehm said.

"I made it and he was like, 'let's get you on the football team,'" Mia said.

She's racked up more than a dozen extra points this season alone.

At the high school level, when you're dealing with extra points and even field goals, those points are huge," Boehm said. "She's more consistent with PATs than any of the boys we have."

This year, another Loza has joined the De La Salle ranks with Mia's little sister, Sissi, kicking for the JV team.
RELATED: High school sports referees in short supply as seasons start again amid COVID-19 pandemic
"She watched that happen, she quickly wanted to do the same and there was no hesitation," said De La Salle Institute Principal Thomas Schergen.

"I'm up for it, if you want me, too," Sissi said. "Now, we're the kickers for JV and Varsity."

The sisters said they encourage each other.

"You can see when they're working on their stuff at practice, they're helping each other out and coaching each other up," Boehm said.

Their teammates are also big fans.

"I'm like their little sister on the team. They protect me on the field," Mia said.

While the Loza sisters are making history at De La Salle, it's a feeling of history repeating itself for the family. Mia and Sissi's mother was a standout soccer player in high school as well. Back then, her school didn't have a girls team, so she became the first to make the boys squad.
RELATED: Female wrestlers take to the mat at Oak Park and River Forest High School
"Leaving her mark on her high school was something really big for her. She's also in the hall of fame at her high school," Mia said.

"She was like, 'Go for it, don't look back,'" Sissi added.

"I think it's really good for our school, seeing that there's girls who could do something that boys can do -- like girl power," Mia said.

"You see the Facebook and Twitter posts from the parents, just rallying around her, just saying 'girl power." It's pretty cool," Boehm said. "Very cool for them and for the institution."

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'Girl power': Chicago sisters make history as standout kickers for high school football team

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CHICAGO (WLS) -- Football has always been a sport dominated by guys, but two Chicago sisters are showing the guys a thing or two this season. De La Salle Institute in the Bronzeville neighborhood is all about girl power these days with not one, but two standout female kickers who are playing high school football .

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In this article it talks about the big impact COVID brought us. This pandemic affected us all and still is. The article is social function because we still talk about corona and the issues that come along with it.

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Total deaths due to COVID-19 underestimated by 20 percent in U.S. counties, study finds: Deaths caused by indirect effects of the pandemic emphasize the need for policy changes that address widening health and racial inequities

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More than 15 months into the pandemic, the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 is nearing 600,000. But COVID-19 deaths may be underestimated by 20 percent, according to a new study.

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In this article, the reporter reveals how the elections judge drove away with the voting equipment. The writer weakly accuses the judge without any concrete evidence, yet the overall purpose of the article is making the readers to believe that the judge messed up the poll count.

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PITTSBURGH (AP) - Authorities in western Pennsylvania say a local judge of elections was arrested after allegedly failing to show up to the polls Tuesday and instead deciding to work as a jitney driver for the day.

The Allegheny County sheriff's office says 55-year-old Darrin Farmer of North Versailles (Vehr-SAYLES') never came to the North Versailles precinct with voting equipment, delaying poll opening by three hours.

Authorities say his wife said he dropped her off at a store to buy refreshments for volunteers but then left. They allege he decided to spend the day giving rides for money.

Farmer faces charges including tampering with public records and obstructing a government function; a listed number for him couldn't be found and it's unclear whether he has an attorney who could respond to the charges.

Reporter, HuffPost

Darrin Farmer Mug Shots pennsylvania weird weird politics dumb crime

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Elections Judge Ignores Polls So He Can Drive Jitney

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PITTSBURGH (AP) - Authorities in western Pennsylvania say a local judge of elections was arrested after allegedly failing to show up to the polls Tuesday and instead deciding to work as a jitney driver for the day.

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In this article it discusses the impact Marie Wilcox contributed towards to. This article is record keeping because it keeps a record of her death and the impact of her life.

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The subject of a Times Op-Doc, she was, for a time, the last fluent speaker of Wukchumni and spent 20 years producing the first complete dictionary of its vocabulary.

Marie Wilcox in 2014. She spent 20 years writing down words in her Indigenous language, ultimately produced a dictionary of the language and recorded pronunciations. Credit... Vanessa Carr

For many years, Marie Wilcox was the guardian of the Wukchumni language, one of several Indigenous languages that were once common in Central California but have either disappeared or nearly disappeared. She was the only person for a time who could speak it fluently.

She started writing down words in Wukchumni as she remembered them in the late 1990s, scrawling on the backs of envelopes and slips of paper. Then she started typing them into an old boxy computer. Soon she was getting up early to devote her day to gathering words and working into the night.

After 20 years of labor, of hunting and pecking on her keyboard, Ms. Wilcox, who died at 87 on Sept. 25, produced a dictionary, the first known complete compendium of Wukchumni.

"The dictionary was her whole life," Jennifer Malone, one of her daughters, said in a phone interview. "The language was dying, and she brought it back."

In 2014, while Ms. Wilcox was still revising and editing the dictionary, the filmmaker Emmanuel Vaughan-Lee made "Marie's Dictionary," a short documentary video about her achievement for The New York Times Opinion section, in its Op-Docs series.

A short documentary, "Marie's Dictionary," was made in 2014 about Ms. Wilcox, inspiring her family to learn Wukchumni. Credit... Vanessa Carr

When her large extended family held a party and watched the documentary together, they understood for the first time what she had been doing all those years, said Ms. Malone, who, with a handful of others, helped her mother edit and format the dictionary. Until then, she said, they had not fully appreciated her work or valued the connection between their lost language and some of their cultural traditions.

Within short order, many family members started learning Wukchumni. And other Native American tribes were inspired by her story to revitalize their own disappearing languages.

Ms. Wilcox died at a hospital in Visalia, in Central California. She had been attending a birthday party for her 4-year-old great-great grandson when she was stricken by a ruptured aorta as she was getting in a car to leave, Ms. Malone said.

There are an estimated 7,000 languages in the world today, a majority of which originated with Indigenous people. Many of these are only spoken, not written, and they have no dictionaries. Because of forced assimilation, relocation and other factors involving Native people, most of these languages are on the verge of dying out.

Ms. Wilcox's dictionary was copyrighted in 2019 but has yet to be published.

After one of her elderly relatives died about eight years ago, Ms. Wilcox became the only person fluent in Wukchumni, a dialect of Tule-Kaweah, which originated near the Tule and Kaweah Rivers in Central California.

"It seems weird that I am the last one," she told Mr. Vaughan-Lee, the filmmaker. "It'll just be gone one of these days."

But long before she became the only fluent speaker, Ms. Wilcox had become fixated on creating a lasting record of Wukchumni. Her grandmother, who took care of her as a child, had spoken it, and Ms. Wilcox had started out creating her dictionary as a tribute to the grandmother, Ms. Malone said. The dictionary was copyrighted in 2019 but has yet to be published; Ms. Wilcox also recorded the words so that others would know the correct pronunciation.

After the documentary came out, learning the language became a collective effort across four generations of Ms. Wilcox's family. Her 4-year-old great-great grandson, Oliver Treglown, was being raised to speak it from birth. Interest also picked up within the Visalia community, where Ms. Malone teaches the language at the Owens Valley Career Development Center.

"Learning this language has brought the family closer together," Ms. Malone said. "Mom inspired people to want to learn."

Video

This short documentary profiles the last fluent speaker of Wukchumni, a Native American language, and her creation of a comprehensive dictionary.

Marie Desma Wilcox was born on Nov. 24, 1933, on a ranch in Visalia, in the San Joaquin Valley. Her father, Alex Wilcox, was a farm hand. Her mother, Beatrice Arancis, had seven children, of which Marie was the youngest. She often referred to herself as "the end of the trail."

Marie grew up with her grandparents in a one-room house in the Venice Hills mountains near Sequoia National Park. After she finished the eighth grade, she went to work in the fields as a farm hand herself, mostly picking fruit.

She had four daughters and one son with Joe Garcia, and those four sisters married four of the Malone brothers. In addition to her daughter Jennifer Malone, Ms. Wilcox is survived by another daughter, Evelyn Malone; 10 grandchildren; 33 great-grandchildren; and 18 great-great grandchildren.

Among those who helped Ms. Wilcox with her dictionary, particularly with her computer, was Nicholas Luna, 27, an Apache whom Ms. Wilcox brought into her family. Mr. Luna said in an interview that when the family viewed the documentary in 2014, "it gave them a sense of purpose."

"She was training us, and, boy, did she train us well," he said. "She lit a fire under me and others to keep on speaking the language and to keep going at it. Now I dream in the Wukchumni language."

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Marie Wilcox, Who Saved Her Native Language From Extinction, Dies at 87

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The subject of a Times Op-Doc, she was, for a time, the last fluent speaker of Wukchumni and spent 20 years producing the first complete dictionary of its vocabulary. For many years, Marie Wilcox was the guardian of the Wukchumni language, one of several Indigenous languages that were once common in Central California but have either disappeared or nearly disappeared.

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The article gives us the complete results of the 2020 election which is an example of record keeping.

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U.S. Presidential Election Results 2020: Biden wins

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Results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, including electoral votes between Trump and Biden in each state, and who is winning the popular vote.

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In this article, it discusses the advances of technology and how it will affect us in the future. Providing quotes from participants in the article gives us the reactions most readers might have when reading this article. People will become more fascinated in the technological evolution or wary of it.

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The list of new technologies grows every day. Robots, Augmented Reality, algorithms, and machine-to-machine communications help people with a range of different tasks.(1) These technologies are broad-based in their scope and significant in their ability to transform existing businesses and personal lives. They have the potential to ease people's lives and improve their personal and business dealings.(2) Technology is becoming much more sophisticated and this is having a substantial impact on the workforce.(3)

In this paper, I explore the impact of robots, artificial intelligence, and machine learning on the workforce and public policy. If society needs fewer workers due to automation and robotics, and many social benefits are delivered through jobs, how are people outside the workforce for a lengthy period of time going to get health care and pensions? These are profound questions for public policy and we need to figure out how to deliver social benefits in the new digital economy.

Emerging Technologies

Robots

Industrial robots are expanding in magnitude around the developed world. In 2013, for example, there were an estimated 1.2 million robots in use. This total rose to around 1.5 million in 2014 and is projected to increase to about 1.9 million in 2017.(4) Japan has the largest number with 306,700, followed by North America (237,400), China (182,300), South Korea (175,600), and Germany (175,200). Overall, robotics is expected to rise from a $15-billion sector now to $67 billion by 2025.(5)

According to an RBC Global Asset Management study, the costs of robots and automation have fallen substantially. It used to be that the "high costs of industrial robots restricted their use to few high-wage industries like the auto industry. However, in recent years, the average costs of robots have fallen, and in a number of key industries in Asia, the cost of robots and the unit costs of low-wage labor are converging... Robots now represent a viable alternative to labor."(6)

In the contemporary world, there are many robots that perform complex functions. According to a presentation on robots:

The early 21st century saw the first wave of companionable social robots. They were small cute pets like AIBO, Pleo, and Paro. As robotics become more sophisticated, thanks largely to the smart phone, a new wave of social robots has started, with humanoids Pepper and Jimmy and the mirror-like Jibo, as well as Geppetto Avatars' software robot, Sophie. A key factor in a robot's ability to be social is their ability to correctly understand and respond to people's speech and the underlying context or emotion.(7)

These machines are capable of creative actions. Anthropologist Eitan Wilf of Hebrew University of Jerusalem says that sociable robots represent "a cultural resource for negotiating problems of intentionality."(8) He describes a "jazz-improvising humanoid robot marimba player" that can interpret music context and respond creatively to improvisations on the part of other performers. Designers can put it with a jazz band, and the robot will ad lib seamlessly with the rest of the group. If someone were listening to the music, that person could not discern the human from the robot performer.

Amazon has organized a "picking challenge" designed to see if robots can "autonomously grab items from a shelf and place them in a tub." The firm has around 50,000 people working in its warehouses and it wants to see if robots can perform the tasks of selecting items and moving them around the warehouse. During the competition, a Berlin robot successfully completed ten of the twelve tasks. To move goods around the facility, the company already uses 15,000 robots and it expects to purchase additional ones in the future.(9)

In the restaurant industry, firms are using technology to remove humans from parts of food delivery. Some places, for example, are using tablets that allow customers to order directly from the kitchen with no requirement of talking to a waiter or waitress. Others enable people to pay directly, obviating the need for cashiers. Still others tell chefs how much of an ingredient to add to a dish, which cuts down on food expenses.(10) Other experimentalists are using a robot known as Nao to help people deal with stress. In a pilot project called "Stress Game," Thi-Hai-Ha Dang and Adriana Tapus subject people to a board game where they have to collect as many hand objects as they can. During the test, stress is altered through game difficulty and noises when errors are made. The individuals are wired to a heart monitor so that Nao can help people deal with stress. When the robot feels human stress levels increasing, it provides coaching designed to decrease the tension. Depending on the situation, it can respond in empathetic, encouraging, or challenging ways. In this way, the "robot with personality" is able to provide dynamic feedback to the experimental subjects and help them deal with tense activities.(11)

Computerized Algorithms

There are computerized algorithms that have taken the place of human transactions. We see this in the stock exchanges, where high-frequency trading by machines has replaced human decision making. People submit buy and sell orders, and computers match them in the blink of an eye without human intervention. Machines can spot trading inefficiencies or market differentials at a very small scale and execute trades that make money for people.(12)

Some individuals specialize in arbitrage trading, whereby the algorithms see the same stocks having different market values. Humans are not very efficient at spotting price differentials but computers can use complex mathematical formulas to determine where there are trading opportunities. Fortunes have been made by mathematicians who excel in this type of analysis.(13)

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence refers to "machines that respond to stimulation consistent with traditional responses from humans, given the human capacity for contemplation, judgment and intention."(14) It incorporates critical reasoning and judgment into response decisions. Long considered a visionary advance, AI is now here and being incorporated in a variety of different areas. It is being used in finance, transportation, aviation, and telecommunications. Expert systems "make decisions which normally require a human level of expertise."(15) These systems help humans anticipate problems or deal with difficulties as they come up.

There is growing applicability of artificial intelligence in many industries.(16) It is being used to take the place of humans in a variety of areas. For example, it is being used in space exploration, advanced manufacturing, transportation, energy development, and health care. By tapping into the extraordinary processing power of computers, humans can supplement their own skills and improve productivity through artificial intelligence.

Impact on the Workforce

The rapid increase in emerging technologies suggests that they are having a substantial impact on the workforce. Many of the large tech firms have achieved broad economic scale without a large number of employees. For example, Derek Thompson writes: "Google is worth $370 billion but has only about 55,000 employees-less than a tenth the size of AT&T's workforce in its heyday [in the 1960s]."(17) According to economist Andrew McAfee: "We are facing a time when machines will replace people for most of the jobs in the current economy, and I believe it will come not in the crazy distant future."(18)

In a number of fields, technology is substituting for labor, and this has dramatic consequences for middle-class jobs and incomes. Cornell University engineer Hod Lipson argues that "for a long time the common understanding was that technology was destroying jobs but also creating new and better ones. Now the evidence is that technology is destroying jobs and indeed creating new and better ones but also fewer ones."(19)

Martin Ford issues an equally strong warning. In his book, The Lights in the Tunnel, he argues that "as technology accelerates, machine automation may ultimately penetrate the economy to the extent that wages no longer provide the bulk of consumers with adequate discretionary income and confidence in the future. If this issue is not addressed, the result will be a downward economic spiral."(20) Continuing, he warns that "at some point in the future-it might be many years or decades from now-machines will be able to do the jobs of a large percentage of the 'average' people in our population, and these people will not be able to find new jobs."

Firms have discovered that robotics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can replace humans and improve accuracy, productivity, and efficiency of operations. During the Great Recession of 2008-09, many businesses were forced to downsize their workforce for budgetary reasons. They had to find ways to maintain operations through leaner workforces. One business leader I know had five hundred workers for his $100 million business and now has the same size workforce even though the company has grown to $250 million in revenues. He did this by automating certain functions and using robots and advanced manufacturing techniques to operate the firm.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) compiles future employment projections. In its most recent analysis, the agency predicts that 15.6 million new positions will be created between 2012 and 2022. This amounts to growth of about 0.5 percent per year in the labor force.

The health-care and social assistance sector is expected to grow the most with an annual rate of 2.6 percent. This will add around five million new jobs over that decade. That is about one-third of all the new jobs expected to be created.(21) Other areas that are likely to experience growth include professional services (3.5 million), construction (1.6 million), leisure and hospitality (1.3 million), state and local government (929,000), finance (751,000), and education (675,000).

Interestingly, in light of technology advances, the information sector is one of the areas expected to shrink in jobs. BLS projections anticipate that about 65,000 jobs will be lost there over the coming decade. Even though technology is revolutionizing many businesses, it is doing this by transforming operations, not increasing the number of jobs. Technology can boost productivity and improve efficiency, but does so by reducing the number of employees needed to generate the same or even higher levels of production.

Manufacturing is another area thought to lose jobs. The BLS expects the United States to lose 550,000 jobs, while the federal government will shed 407,000 positions, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting will drop 223,000 jobs.(22) These sectors are the ones thought to be least likely to generate new positions in the coming decade.

Since BLS projections make few assumptions about emerging technologies, it is likely that their numbers underestimate the disruptive impact of these developments. It is hard to quantify the way that robots, artificial intelligence, and sensors will affect the workforce because we are in the early stages of the technology revolution. It is hard to be definitive about emerging trends because it is not clear how new technologies will affect various jobs.

But there are estimates of the likely impact of computerization on many occupations. Oxford University researchers Carl Frey and Michael Osborn claim that technology will transform many sectors of life. They studied 702 occupational groupings and found that "forty-seven percent of US workers have a high probability of seeing their jobs automated over the next twenty years."(23) According to their analysis, telemarketers, title examiners, hand sewers, mathematical technicians, insurance underwriters, watch repairers, cargo agents, tax preparers, photographic process workers, new accounts clerks, library technicians, and data entry keyers have a ninety-nine percent of having their jobs computerized. At the other end of the spectrum, recreational therapists, mechanic supervisors, emergency management directors, mental health social workers, audiologists, occupational therapists, health-care social workers, oral surgeons, supervisors of fire fighters, and dieticians have less than a one percent chance of having their tasks computerized. They base their analysis of improving levels of computerization, wage levels, and education required in different fields.(24) In addition, we know that fields such as health care and education have been slow to embrace the technology revolution, but are starting to embrace new models. Innovations in personalized learning and mobile health mean that many schools and hospitals are shifting from traditional to computerized service delivery. Educators are using massive, open, online courses (MOOCs) and tablet-based instruction, while health-care providers are relying on medical sensors, electronic medical records, and machine learning to diagnose and evaluate health treatments.

Hospitals used to be staffed with people who personally delivered the bulk of medical treatment. But health providers now are storing information in electronic medical records and data-sharing networks are connecting lab tests, clinical data, and administration information in order to promote greater efficiency. Patients surf the web for medical information and supplement professional advice with online resources. Both education and health-care sectors are seeing the disruption that previously has transformed other fields.

Given the uncertainties surrounding job projections, it is not surprising that experts disagree over the impact of emerging technologies. For example, in their highly acclaimed book, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies , economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argue that technology is producing major changes in the workforce. According to them:

Technological progress is going to leave behind some people, perhaps even a lot of people, as it races ahead. As we will demonstrate, there has never been a better time to be a worker with special skills or the right education because these people can use technology to create and capture value. However, there has never been a worse time to be a worker with only "ordinary" skills and abilities to offer, because computers, robots, and other digital technologies are acquiring these skills and abilities at an extraordinary rate.(25)

Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers is equally pessimistic about the employment impact. He argues that "if current trends continue, it could well be that a generation from now a quarter of middle-aged men will be out of work at any given moment." From his standpoint, "providing enough work" will be the major economic challenge facing the world. (26)

However, some economists dispute these claims. They recognize that many jobs will be lost through technology improvements, but say that new ones will be created. There may be fewer people sorting items in a warehouse because machines can do that better than humans. But jobs analyzing big data, mining information, and managing data-sharing networks will be created. According to those individuals, the job gains and losses will even out over the long run. In future decades, work will be transformed but humans will still be needed to manage the digital world.

For example, MIT economist David Autor has analyzed data on jobs and technology but "doubts that technology could account for such an abrupt change in total employment [...] The sudden slowdown in job creation is a big puzzle, but there is not a lot of evidence it is linked to computers."(27) In the same vein, Harvard economist Richard Freeman is "skeptical that technology would change a wide range of business sectors fast enough to explain recent job numbers."(28)

Northwestern economist Robert Gordon takes an even stronger stance. He argues that:

Recent progress in computing and automation is less transformative than electrification, cars, and wireless communication, and perhaps even indoor plumbing. Previous advances that enabled people to communicate and travel rapidly over long distances may end up being more significant to society's advancement than anything to come in the twenty-first century.(29)

Based on this reasoning, he does not anticipate dramatic workforce effects from emerging technologies, even though many other experts already see the substitution of technology for labor.

A Pew Research Center study asked 1,896 experts about the impact of emerging technologies. Its researchers found that:

Half of these experts (48%) envision a future in which robots and digital agents have displaced significant numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers-with many expressing concern that this will lead to vast increases in income inequality, masses of people who are effectively unemployable, and breakdowns in the social order.(30)

Implications for Public Policy

In the classic Edward Bellamy book, Looking Backwards, protagonist Julian West wakes up from a 113-year slumber and finds that the United States in 2000 is completely different from 1887. People stop working at age forty-five and devote their lives to mentoring other people and contributing to the overall sense of community.(31) There are shorter work weeks for ordinary people and everyone receives full benefits, food, and housing.

Similar to our time period, new technologies at that time enabled people to be very productive in a short period of time. Society did not need a large number of workers so people could devote much of their lives to education, volunteerism, and community development. In conjunction with these employment trends, public policy shifted to encourage new lifestyles and ways of living.

In flash-forwarding to the current era, we may be on the verge of a similar technology transition. Robotics and machine learning have improved productivity and enhanced the overall economy of developed nations. Countries that have invested in innovation have seen tremendous growth in overall economic performance. In the future, it may be possible that society will not need as many workers as seen today.

Yet unlike Bellamy's utopia, there has been little public discussion regarding the economic or policy impact of emerging technologies. Observers worry that knowledge societies are destroying industrial and manufacturing jobs, and exacerbating social and economic divisions. In its most pointed form, skeptics fear that technology will eliminate jobs, reduce incomes, and create a permanent underclass of unemployable people. As argued by Nicolas Colin and Bruno Palier: "Employment is becoming less routine, less steady, and generally less well remunerated. Social policy will therefore have to cover the needs of not just outside the labor market but even many inside it."(32)

If technology innovation allows businesses to provide goods and services with far fewer employees, what will that mean for workers? A significant increase in the number of people without full-time jobs would exacerbate divisions within society and complicate the distribution of benefits such as pensions, health care, and insurance. Most benefits are tied to employment so if the economy requires fewer workers due to technological advancement, we need to consider how this will affect social benefit delivery.

In this section, I review short- and long-term steps we should consider to deal with emerging technologies. This includes thinking about how to deliver benefits outside of jobs, considering a basic income guarantee, revamping the earned income tax credit, providing activity accounts for lifetime learning and job retraining, encouraging corporate profit-sharing, providing benefit credits for volunteerism, making curricular reforms to assure that students have the skills they need for a twenty-first-century economy, encouraging adult education and continuing learning, expanding arts and culture for leisure time, and avoiding a permanent underclass suffering the ill effects of income inequality.

Benefits Outside of Jobs

If we end up in a situation with many people unemployed or underemployed for significant periods of time, we need a way to provide health care, disability, and pension benefits outside of employment. Called "flexicurity" or flexible security, this idea "separate(s) the provision of benefits from jobs."(33) It offers health care, education, and housing assistance on a universal basis.

Currently, people must work sixty percent of the time (around twenty-four hours a week) in order to qualify for full-time benefits. When they are fully employed, they are eligible for company-sponsored health-care plans and pensions. During the period since World War II, jobs have been a primary distribution system for social benefits. Except for the poor and elderly, this keeps benefits outside of the public sector and places the onus on private companies.

That approach worked well in an era when most of the people who wanted jobs were able to get them. People with limited skills were able to get well-paying jobs with benefits in factories, warehouses, and production facilities. They could educate their children, achieve a reasonable standard of living, and guard against disabling illnesses.

The complication came when the economy shifted, wages stagnated, and technology made it possible for companies to get by with fewer workers. The advent of robotics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and machine-to-machine communications eliminated a number of jobs and put a number of people outside the typical workforce.

For health care, people need access to quality care through plans outside of employment. It is possible through commercial insurers to purchase catastrophic insurance for extraordinary health claims. Or if people are poor or elderly, there are government programs that guarantee access to medical care. The recent expansion of health insurance through the Affordable Care Act has extended insurance to millions of people who previously lacked coverage.

In regard to retirement planning, many employers have moved to 401-style pension plans. Employees contribute to their own funds and sometimes get a match from the employer. But this does not help those outside the workforce who need retirement assistance. Even Social Security is tied to employment. People who have not worked are not eligible for retirement benefits so we need to figure out ways to take care of those people in the newly emerging economy.

Provide Activity Accounts for Lifetime Learning and Job Retraining

We should consider the establishment of activity accounts for lifetime learning and job retraining. In an era of fast technology innovation and job displacement, there needs to be a means for people to gain new skills throughout their adulthood. When people are employed, their companies could contribute a set amount to an individual's fund. This account could be augmented by contributions from the person him or herself as well as the government. Similar to a retirement account, money in the fund could be invested tax-free in investment options including cash reserves, stocks, and bonds. The owner of the account could draw on it to finance lifetime learning and job retraining expenses. It would be portable, meaning that if the person moved or switched jobs, the account would migrate with that individual.

The goal of this account is to provide incentives for continuing education. Under virtually any scenario, people are going to have to continue their education beyond the first twenty years of their lives. Emerging jobs are going to require different skills than what people gain in school. There will be new jobs created that may not exist today. As pointed out by Brookings Institution scholar Kemal Dervis, it will be crucial as technology innovation continues in the future to provide people with a means to upgrade their skills and knowledge levels.(34) He notes that France has established "individual activity accounts" that provide social benefits.

With the expected increase in leisure time, adults need time and financial support for continued learning. We should not envision education merely as a time for young people to learn new skills or pursue areas of interest. Instead, we need to think about education as a continuing activity that broadens people's horizons over the course of their entire lives. Education is an enrichment activity and we need to view it as a general benefit for the individual as well as the society as a whole.

Incentives for Volunteerism

The trends cited in this analysis suggest that we need to consider income supplements or benefit eligibility through vehicles other than full-time jobs. The workforce ramifications of emerging technologies mean that many people in the future may not be able to provide for their families through regular employment.

One possibility comes through volunteer activities. Even if people have limited employment options, many participate in a wide range of public-minded organizations. They help other people, train the next generation, or provide assistance for the less fortunate in society.

A variety of survey evidence demonstrates that young people are particularly interested in volunteerism. In general, they have different attitudes toward work and leisure time, and many say they want time to pursue outside activities. For example, a survey of American students found that they want "a job that focuses on helping others and improving society." In addition, they value quality of life considerations, not just financial well-being.(35)

A number of them value volunteer activities outside of their work experience. They have varied interests and want extra-curricular activities that fulfill them. This may involve tutoring in after-school programs, helping English as a Second Language pupils, stopping domestic violence, protecting the environment, or encouraging entrepreneurship. According to a Deloitte study, "63 percent of Millennials donate to charities and 43 percent actively volunteer or are a member of a community organization."(36)

In a digital world where there may be less work and more leisure time, it makes sense to think about incentives and work credits for volunteerism. This could include credits toward social benefits or public rewards that acknowledge community contributions. In the United Kingdom, for example, volunteers get reimbursed for expenses or earn credits for job training programs through participation in worthy causes. In addition, volunteering counts as "looking for work" so people can use those activities to qualify for national insurance credits.(37)

Going forward, the United States should consider those types of incentives. In the future, people are likely to have more time outside of employment so it makes sense to encourage them toward community engagement and give them incentives to volunteer for nonprofit organizations or charitable causes. This will benefit the overall community and give people purposeful activities in which to engage.

Expanding Arts and Culture for Leisure Time

The so-called "end of work" may create a new kind of economy. According to Harvard economist Lawrence Katz: "It is possible that information technology and robots [will] eliminate traditional jobs and make possible a new artisanal economy [...] an economy geared around self-expression, where people would do artistic things with their time."(38) From his standpoint, this transition would move the world from one of consumption to creativity.

People will use their leisure time to pursue interests in arts and culture, or special areas that they follow. This could include reading, poetry, music, or woodworking. Depending on their background, they could have more time for family and friends. A study of family time found that macroeconomic conditions affect how much time people spend together. When employment problems rise, "fathers spend more time engaging in enriching childcare activities" and "mothers are less likely to work standard hours."(39) As long as there are opportunities for people to pursue broader interests, reduction in work does not have to eliminate chances for cultural pursuits.

Conclusion

To summarize, advanced societies are at a major turning point in terms of how we think about work, leisure, and social benefit delivery. If these economies need fewer workers to complete needed tasks and benefits are delivered mainly through full-time jobs, there is a danger that many people will have difficulties getting health care, pensions, and the income maintenance they need to sustain their lives. This is of particular concern at a time of large income inequality and highly skewed economic distributions.(40)

The contrast between the age of scarcity in which we have lived and the upcoming age of abundance through new technologies means that we need to pay attention to the social contract. We need to rewrite it in keeping with the dramatic shifts in employment and leisure time that are taking place. People have to understand we are witnessing a fundamental interruption of the current cycle where people are paid for their work and spend their money on goods and services. When a considerable portion of human labor is no longer necessary to run the economy, we have to rethink income generation, employment, and public policy. Our emerging economic system means we will not need all the workers that we have. New technologies will make these individuals obsolete and unemployable.

In this situation, it is important to address the policy and leisure time issues raised by persistent unemployment or underemployment. There is a danger of disruptions and unrest from large groups of people who are not working. That creates poverty and social dissatisfaction and runs the risk of instability for the society as a whole. Stability cannot be enforced through a police presence or having wealthy individuals live in gated communities.

There needs to be ways for people to live fulfilling lives even if society needs relatively few workers. We need to think about ways to address these issues before we have a permanent underclass of unemployed individuals. This includes a series of next steps for society. There needs to be continuous learning avenues, opportunities for arts and culture, and mechanisms to supplement incomes and benefits other than through full-time jobs. Policies that encourage volunteerism and reward those who contribute to worthy causes make sense from the standpoint of society as a whole. Adoption of these steps will help people adapt to the new economic realities.
Acknowledgments
I wish to thank Hillary Schaub for outstanding research assistance on this project.

1. James Manyika, Michael Chui, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Peter Bisson, and Alex Marrs, Disruptive Technologies: Advances That Will Transform Life, Business, and the Global Economy (McKinsey Global Institute, May, 2013).

2. Daniela Rus, "How technological breakthroughs will transform everyday life," Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2015.

3. A more extended discussion of these issues can be found in Darrell M. West, What Happens If Robots Take the Jobs? (Brookings Institution Policy Report, October, 2015).

4. James Hagerty, "Meet the new generation of robots for manufacturing," Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2015.

5. Alison Sander and Meldon Wolfgang, "The rise of robotics," The Boston Consulting Group, August 27, 2014. https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/business_unit_strategy_innovation_rise_of_robotics.

6. RBC Global Asset Management, Global Megatrends: Automation in Emerging Markets (2014).

7. Cynthia Breazeal, "The personal side of robots," South by Southwest, March 13, 2015.

8. Eitan Wilf. "Sociable robots, jazz music, and divination: contingency as a cultural resource for negotiating problems of intentionality," American Ethnologist: Journal of the American Ethnological Society, November 6, 2013: 605. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/amet.12041/abstract.

9. Mike Murphy, "Amazon tests out robots that might one day replace warehouse workers," Quartz, June 1, 2015.

10. Lydia DePillis, "Minimum-wage offensive could speed arrival of robot-powered restaurants," Washington Post, August 16, 2015.

11. Thi-Hai-Ha Dang and Adriana Tapus, "Stress game: the role of motivational robotic assistance in reducing user's task stress," International Journal of Social Robotics, April, 2015.

12. Michael Lewis, Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt (New York: Norton, 2015).

13. Andrei A. Kirilenko and Andrew W. Lo, "Moore's Law versus Murphy's Law: algorithmic trading and its discontents," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2013. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23391690.pdf?acceptTC=true.

14. Shukla Shubhendu and Jaiswal Vijay, "Applicability of artificial intelligence in different fields of life," International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Research, September, 2013.

15. Ibid.

16. Ibid.

17. Derek Thompson, "A world without work," The Atlantic, July/August, 2015.

18. Dawn Nakagawa, "The second machine age is approaching," Huffington Post, February 24, 2015.

19. MIT Technology Review, "Who will own the robots," September, 2015.

20. Martin Ford, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology, and the Economy of the Future (CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2009). Also see his more recent book, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future (New York: Basic Books, 2015).

21. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employment projections: 2012-2022 summary," December 19, 2013. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm

22. Ibid.

23. Quoted in Harold Meyerson, "Technology and trade policy is pointing America toward a job apocalypse," Washington Post, March 26, 2014. The original paper is by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, "The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation," Oxford University Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013.

24. Frey and Osborne, "The future of employment," op. cit.: 57-72.

25. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton, 2014), 11.

26. Lawrence Summers, "The economic challenge of the future: jobs," Wall Street Journal, July 7, 2014.

27. Quoted in David Rotman, "How technology is destroying jobs," MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2013. http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

28. Ibid.

29. Quoted in Melissa Kearney, Brad Hershbein, and David Boddy, "The future of work in the age of the machine," Brookings Institution Hamilton Project, February, 2015.

30. Aaron Smith and Janna Anderson, "AI, robotics, and the future of jobs," Pew Research Center, August 6, 2014.

31. Edward Bellamy, Looking Backward 2000-1887 (Boston: Ticknor & Co., 1888).

32. Nicolas Colin and Bruno Palier, "Social policy for a digital age," Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2015.

33. Ibid.

34. Kemal Dervis, "A new birth for social democracy," Brookings Institution Project Syndicate, June 10, 2015.

35. The Griffith Insurance Education Foundation, "Millennial generation attitudes about work and the insurance industry," February 6, 2012.

36. Lindsey Pollack, "Attitudes and attributes of millennials in the workplace," September 12, 2014.

37. Job Centre Plus, "Volunteering while getting benefits," UK Department for Work and Pensions, October, 2010. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/264508/dwp1023.pdf

38. Quoted in Thompson, "A world without work," op. cit.

39. Melinda Sandler Morill and Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, "What effects do macroeconomic conditions have on families' time together?" Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/58561

40. Darrell M. West, Billionaires: Reflections on the Upper Crust (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2014).

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Technological Progress and Potential Future Risks | OpenMind

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Darrell M. West contributes to the book "The Next Step: Exponential Life" with the article "Technological Progress and Potential Future Risks"

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The article delves in what the future may be like after the pandemic scores down. We may either never shy away from the corona virus and it might just become the normality of getting sick like catching the flu. Or we'll get rid of the virus all together. But, we'll never know since it takes place in the future. This article is sentry because it discusses future issues.

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Main

Early in 2020, the world observed a sharp increase in the reported number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The rapid accumulation of cases contrasted not only with the historical numbers of the SARS-CoV outbreak in 2003, but also with the numbers from the pandemic in 2009 caused by influenza H1N1, with the caveat that perhaps cases of an H1N1 infections were underdiagnosed (Fig. 1). The pattern and impact of the pandemic revealed flaws in the worldwide response to the infection-some local of which were in nature, whereas others were more systematic across many different countries.

Towards the end of January 2020, there was an alarming increase in the reported number of SARS-CoV-2 infections (red) that contrasted not only with the growth of historical cases of SARS-CoV in 2003 (purple; counts starting from 19 March 2003), but also with growth curves for the 2009 swine H1N1 infection (blue; counts starting from 24 April 2009). However, each pandemic was probably broader than currently estimated. Data are from Github ( https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) and the World Health Organization.

With the ongoing deployment of several highly effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in many countries, there is an expectation that this virus will disappear. However, two reasons temper our hope in reaching this conclusion: patchy vaccine coverage due to disparities in global access to vaccines and vaccine hesitancy, and vaccines may not always block virus transmission (despite reducing the burden of disease). In addition, although mass vaccine deployment may signal the end of the pandemic, the end of the pandemic does not necessarily equate to the end of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, it is critical to consider what the new equilibrium between humans and this virus and its evolutionary descendants might be. The goal of this Perspective is to discuss the probable transition to a new phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans as an endemic pathogen, perhaps with intermittent epidemic peaks (Box 1). We base our assessment on ongoing data from the COVID-19 pandemic and observations from previous epidemics. We highlight the role of the dynamic interactions between changes in population immunity and ongoing viral evolution and immune escape in shaping the future association of SARS-CoV-2 with humans. We also discuss the possibility that the virus will retain considerable virulence long term. We believe that a thorough understanding of this transition period, and informed guesses about the future of the pandemic are necessary to inform the next steps for public health. It is with that goal in mind that we identify key gaps in our current knowledge and tools with the hope of refining our response as well as guiding scientific initiatives.

Box 1 Definition of terms

Observations from previous pandemics

We believe that it is pertinent to use observations from past infectious disease epidemics to help to predict what the evolutionary future of this pathogen could look like. Key questions include whether COVID-19 will become a familiar but high impact seasonal disease similar to influenza and whether SARS-CoV-2 will become more or less virulent than it is currently. Such comparisons are not as straightforward as they might initially seem. In contrast to the coronaviruses that cause the common cold (HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-OC43), SARS-CoV-2 has a higher virulence, yet it also differs from the even-more-serious coronaviruses severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in that asymptomatic transmission is frequent. Thus, comparisons to other coronaviruses do not enable a definitive prediction of the future behaviour of SARS-CoV-2. At a first glance, SARS-CoV-2 seemingly has a capacity to evolve that outstrips that seen in the other human coronaviruses. We do not know whether this reflects a lack of comparable data for the other viruses that have entered the human population long ago, a recent zoonotic origin that has resulted in a strong selection pressure for adaptation to transmission and/or immune evasion in the human host. Indeed, recent studies have shown that seasonal coronaviruses (such as HCoV-229E) have also experienced antigenic evolution in recent decades1. The overall uncertainty of these parameters makes it difficult to accurately predict the future post-pandemic equilibrium between SARS-CoV-2 and the human population.

A more meaningful comparison can be made with the emergence of new human influenza viruses, particularly the H1N1 influenza A virus that caused the global pandemic of 1918/1919. In the Northern Hemisphere, the 1918/1919 pandemic was associated with a relatively mild wave in the spring followed by a much more severe wave in the autumn. Although an infection fatality rate of around 2% is commonly cited for the devastating autumn wave, the accuracy of this number is difficult to assess2. However, both of these waves fell outside of the usual human influenza season (beginning in March and September, respectively), suggesting that the climatic factors that probably drive seasonality are less important when a new virus enters a very large population of susceptible hosts with little or no pre-existing immunity to the pathogen3,4. The same appears to be true of SARS-CoV-2. Although there have been suggestions of emerging seasonality, the reality is that the current changing patterns of the incidence of COVID-19 could better reflect the differing extent and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing. Major 'summer' (or tropical climate) outbreaks have been reported in such locations as Brazil, India and South Africa.

Although it is possible that SARS-CoV-2 may eventually evolve into a winter seasonal virus such as influenza and the common-cold coronaviruses, this may not occur until there is more widespread population immunity and fewer susceptible hosts in regions that have the optimal climatic conditions for transmission3. If SARS-CoV-2 does not become mostly seasonal, implications for the timing of vaccination and vaccine booster campaigns will be considerable.

Viral evolution, transmission and disease severity

In general, transmission of respiratory viruses is mediated by replication in, and shedding from, the upper respiratory tract, whereas severe disease is associated with the invasion of and replication in the lower respiratory tract. Mutations that increase virus replication in both respiratory sites could be selectively favoured if they not only increase the transmissibility but may also result in higher virulence, causing more-severe disease. Notably, mutations that increase replication only in the upper respiratory tract could be selected based on higher transmissibility but may decrease virulence. Indeed, experiments in ferrets with avian influenza H5N1 virus (which is highly virulent, but poorly transmissible in humans) gave rise to viruses with increased transmissibility and decreased virulence. This is due to changes in the receptor specificity that favour replication in the upper respiratory tract to the detriment of replication in the lower respiratory tract5. However, in the case of SARS-CoV-2, mutations that further optimize the use of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a virus receptor (which is present in both the upper and lower respiratory tract) or alter the capacity of co-receptors to influence tropism and infection are likely to increase both transmission and virulence6,7. By contrast, mutations that increase replication at 33 °C, the temperature of the human upper respiratory tract, while decreasing replication at 37 °C, the temperature of the lower respiratory tract, are expected to increase transmission but decrease virulence. A 'wild card' mutation that-for example-enables the evasion of innate immunity could have profound effects on both transmission and virulence or even the nature of disease. The likelihood that one or all of these changes may occur, or have already occurred, is not possible to predict with certainty given the paucity of data on the status of the virus and disease worldwide.

What about the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic? A reasonable expectation early in the pandemic was that the virus could evolve to develop increased transmissibility, reflecting adaptations to propagation in the new human host. Such a process probably occurred during the large outbreak of Ebola virus in western Africa, resulting in the fixation of mutations that increased affinity of the virus for the human cellular receptor8. It is now clear that the D614G substitution in SARS-CoV-2 increased transmission, leading to its emergence as a dominant strain; in addition, the mutations in the recent B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants have further increased transmission in humans, enabling these variants to successively become dominant in every region in which they have been introduced9. Compared with influenza virus, SARS-CoV-2 has shown an unprecedented capacity to evolve global variants that outcompete regional variants in extremely short time windows and before considerable selective pressure owing to pre-existing immunity. However, whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus will eventually evolve into a more virulent virus is less predictable, as virulence is not necessarily a selectable phenotypic trait that increases the fitness of the virus.

Lessons for understanding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 can again be tentatively drawn from the 1918/1919 influenza pandemic. The autumn wave of the influenza pandemic was associated with far higher virulence than the spring wave. Thereafter, the 1918/1919 virus continued to cause epidemics until the 1950s when it was replaced by a novel zoonotic H2N2 influenza A virus. Importantly, some of these later seasonal epidemics of H1N1 were also associated with relatively high virulence due to ongoing antigenic drift: two of the worst outbreaks of influenza in the twentieth century in terms of excess deaths occurred in 1928-1929 and 1934-1936, respectively, and were due to descendants of the 1918/1919 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus10. Moreover, it is well-documented that bacterial co-infections increase the severity of the disease caused in humans by influenza virus. In this respect, we still do not know well the consequences of co-infections of SARS-CoV-2 with other human pathogens, including influenza virus, the circulation of which was markedly decreased during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, but that is likely to be a prevalent human respiratory pathogen when many of the measures adopted to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in humans are lifted.

The severity of disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 is bound to decrease with increasing population immunity. Even in individuals who are not fully protected from infection by vaccination or previous infection, pre-existing immunity is likely to reduce the severity of symptoms after infection, and to prevent future severe pandemics arising from antigenically related coronaviruses that are circulating in bats and other possible animal reservoirs. Nevertheless, the evolution of the virus to the low level of virulence seen in common-cold coronaviruses may not occur or may take several decades to manifest. More broadly, many years of data and theory have told us that it is probably naive to make strong predictions about the evolution of virulence in any complex system11.

SARS-CoV-2 will evolve and evade immunity

The emergence of new virus variants that imperil the control of the pandemic is a prominent theme in public discourse. These new variants are defined by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as variants of interest, variants of concern or variants of high consequence ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html#Interest). At present, the B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma) and and B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants that are circulating in the USA and worldwide are variants of concern. In the context of the evolving pandemic, there is a need to review the expectation of how SARS-CoV-2 could evolve to a form that might derail the control of the pandemic or alter the nature of an ensuing endemic or combined endemic/epidemic phase.

The Coronaviridae family is characterized by relatively high replication fidelity compared with other RNA viruses, defined by the processivity of their polymerases as required by their exceptionally large genomes12. On this basis, there had been opinions that SARS-CoV-2 evolution would be limited, in turn ensuring the durability of vaccines and therapeutics and supporting optimism that population immunity can end the pandemic. However, although-on average-SARS-CoV-2 evolves (perhaps 3-4 times) more slowly than influenza virus13, the virus is accumulating mutations more rapidly than might be expected given its relative replication fidelity with approximately two mutations fixed per month14 and far higher rates of change are seen in some of the variants of concern. Coronaviruses also have a high rate of viral RNA recombination15; thus, humans who are infected with two variants of SARS-CoV-2 may acquire multiple mutations from both variants at the same time. We also cannot exclude potential recombination events in the future between SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses. In addition, prolonged infections of immunosuppressed individuals who cannot efficiently clear the infection may provide an opportunity for the accumulation of multiple mutations. Furthermore, vaccination may not be effective in individuals with compromised immunity16. Thus, there may be stochastic events in the emergence of future variants based on the infection of a limited number of immunosuppressed or vaccine-unresponsive persons. In the USA alone there are an estimated 10 million individuals with potential limitations to their immune response.

Why are we witnessing the emergence of variants despite the relatively fastidious replication machinery of coronaviruses? The speed of evolution of a viral pathogen is not only dependent on the background mutation rate, but also on the virus generation time, the duration of infection, the number of variants that develop during the infection of an individual, the structural and functional constraints in specific regions of viral proteins, and the extent and strength of natural selection acting on the virus. In addition, the greater the number of individuals infected with the virus, the larger the pool and diversity of mutant viruses that is generated. Although transmission events between two hosts routinely generate bottlenecks that purify away most of the low-frequency mutant viruses, large numbers of transmission events may enable the transmission of a more fit virus, with the global spread of B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and now the spread of B.1.617 (Delta) in India serving as important examples17,18,19,20.

Functional domains in viral proteins that can accept mutations without losing their overall structure and function are sites of potentially selectable mutations. The region of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 that interacts with the human ACE2 receptor exhibits particular structural and functional plasticity21,22. With new selection pressures generated by vaccines or immunity to natural infection-or by the use of antivirals-the possibility of viral adaptations to overcome immune and/or antiviral pressure will probably be a continuing reality. There is a risk of viral diversification in the currently uncontrolled or incompletely controlled pandemic in many regions of the world. In this regard, the level of knowledge of the effect of mutations outside of the viral spike protein is in its infancy, which limits the ability to predict the evolutionary pathways that the virus will follow in the future.

A rapid transition to an endemic phase may decrease the number of circulating virus variants by limiting the extensive exploration of the fitness landscape that takes place during the pandemic phase. Hence, the nature of the future equilibrium between SARS-CoV-2 and humans relies on both the speed and inclusivity of responses to the pandemic across diverse geographies and cultures, as this directly influences the speed of the emergence of problematic variants.

Understanding the transition to an endemic phase, with potential seasonal peaks, would benefit from new tools that can forecast what virus variants may emerge and spread. Spreading variants can be predicted to some extent from epidemiological and biological data, including ACE2 binding measured in the context of deep-scanning mutagenesis of the viral spike protein23. Immune escape is beginning to drive the spread of virus variants at a time in the pandemic when high levels of vaccine- and infection-induced immunity have not yet been achieved worldwide24. Full containment of the pandemic minimizes the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 adapting to the host by reducing the length of transmission chains25. This appears unlikely to be the case unless very high levels of vaccination can be accomplished worldwide.

Interspecies spread

SARS-CoV-2 does not only infect humans; it also has pantropic properties26. SARS-CoV-2 infections have been established in a range of animal species, including bats, cats, dogs, ferrets, hamsters, deer mice, otters, white-tailed deer and various nonhuman primates27,28,29. Zoonotic transmission from humans to animals has been documented in farmed mink, dogs and cats29,30,31,32 as well as in lions and tigers in zoos33. Thus, the host range of SARS-CoV-2 extends to a variety of mammalian species, including those maintaining large populations in the wild. Virus evolution can occur in animal hosts, generating a suite of genomic changes in addition to those seen during human-to-human transfer (Fig. 2). As expected, mutations related to species specificity occur in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and are important, because changes to this region may enable immune escape and/or confer a transmission or fitness advantage. Variation in the N-terminal domain or in or near the furin-cleavage site represent other mutational hotspots in the spike protein that are common to variants of concern and after interspecies transfers (Fig. 2). However, the effect of mutations outside of the spike protein in these interspecies adaptations has not yet been examined and is a wild card that may limit the predictability of the course of the pandemic.

Black thick lines show mutations shared between infection in humans and animals. Thin lines indicate mutations limited to infection in humans or animals. Homology modelling of the SARS-CoV-2 spike used reference sequence QHD43416.1 and a closed pre-fusion configuration of the spike trimer (Protein Data Bank (PDB) 6VXX)81 as a template. NTD, N-terminal domain; VOC, variant of concern. The figure is adapted from https://virological.org/t/mutations-arising-in-sars-cov-2-spike-on-sustained-human-to-human-transmission-and-human-to-animal-passage/578.

Infected animals can be the source of two evolutionarily related problems. First, upon animal infection, the human virus can undergo evolution that could introduce adaptive mutations. An example of such an event occurred in mink in Denmark and the Netherlands30,34. Human-to-animal transfer resulted in the introduction of an adaptive substitution, Y453F, and the subsequent outbreak of this variant in humans (referred to as the 'mink variant', B.1.1.298). The Y453F substitution is in the RBD of the spike protein and increases the affinity of the spike protein for human ACE2 compared with the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, suggesting an avenue for the enhanced transmission or pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-235. Second, an animal coronavirus infection in animals carrying SARS-CoV-2 may pose a serious risk for the generation of hybrid viruses through recombination between viral genomes. These hybrid viruses could have new properties related to immune evasion or virulence. Genomic recombination-which is frequently observed in coronaviruses15-may have played a part in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 ( https://virological.org/t/recombinant-sars-cov-2-genomes-involving-lineage-b-1-1-7-in-the-uk/658), including potential recombination with diverse coronaviruses that are present in a variety of animal species. New variants that can be transmitted back to humans in an interspecies 'ping pong' of infections could contribute to further SARS-CoV-2 diversification, as it is the case for influenza A viruses36. Infection and propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in nonhuman species could lead to sequence alterations, interspecies transmission and adaptations that could compromise human immunity or affect virulence and that could diminish binding to monoclonal antibodies that are in clinical use37,38. As an example, one RBD substitution-N501Y-that occurs in B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma) and other emerging variants of concern enables the productive infection of laboratory mice and possible expansion of the host range to wild mice39,40,41. This mutation also diminished neutralization by a monoclonal antibody in clinical trials42.

Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 in other species could provide a refuge for the virus to re-emerge in human populations in an evolutionarily distinct form-for example, upon waning of vaccine coverage or diminished natural or vaccine-induced immunity that occurs over time. It is also possible that after decades of separate circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and animals, the human viruses will have diverged antigenically owing to immune pressure, but the animal viruses may not have. This could lead to a population of young individuals born in post-pandemic years with no pre-existing immunity against the old SARS-CoV-2 strains who are therefore susceptible to infection with the animal SARS-CoV-2 viruses that are antigenically related to the original SARS-CoV-2 pandemic strain. In fact, this is the most likely explanation of the pandemic in 2009 caused by a swine influenza virus, which is a descendant of the human H1N1 viruses from the 1918/1919 pandemic virus, but which is antigenically related to the H1N1 viruses that circulated in humans in the beginning of the twentieth century43. The potential for such events demands active research into possible susceptible secondary reservoir hosts, and the development of therapeutic and prophylactic interventions that are agnostic to variations in the virus sequence. It is important to recognize that such solutions need to be on the shelf against the possible emergence of a highly problematic strain of SARS-CoV-2, as the speed with which the virus has spread during this pandemic shows the limitations of even an exceptionally fast response in the development of vaccines or therapeutics44.

The role of vaccines and the correlates of protection

The remarkably rapid development of safe and highly effective vaccines that mitigate the burden of COVID-19 is an historic achievement. Nevertheless, fundamental questions remain as to the mechanism(s) of protection against the disease, the extent of protection against asymptomatic infection and the duration of vaccine-induced humoral and cellular immunity. The effects of potential differences between the immunity induced by the vaccines compared with natural infection and between different COVID-19 vaccines also remain unclear.

Policies to guide vaccine campaigns in the fight against any virus benefit when a test of immunity that correlates with vaccine efficacy can be identified. Antibody assays that measure the neutralization of antigen binding are typically used to determine the rates of seroconversion after vaccine administration, but these may not be fully useful as correlates of protection in an individual because antibodies also restrict viral infection according to their effector functions45,46,47 and CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cell responses are critical for antiviral immunity48. Recently, CD4⁺ T cells have been reported to shape the development of humoral and CD8⁺ T cell responses to the spike protein after vaccination with an mRNA vaccine49. Assays for neutralizing antibodies elicited by the spike protein have been the primary measure of immunity induced by the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Most neutralization assays are variable across assay systems and cell lines50,51, which limits their use to define a correlate that spans clinical studies of different vaccines, and they do not distinguish between responses to different epitopes on the spike protein, some of which are highly immunodominant52. The establishment of an international standard by the World Health Organization to enable the normalization of data from different assays is an important step towards addressing this issue ( www.who.int/teams/blueprint/covid-19). A recent model that relates the efficacy of immunization with mRNA, adenoviral vector and other SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to neutralizing titres supports that these titres have predictive value53.

Notably, as observed for influenza A virus, regions of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 that elicit the most potent neutralization responses are also the most variable in emerging variants of concern. Indeed, vaccine-induced and natural immunity-as measured by neutralization assays-is reduced against some variants. Although vaccines are effective against current variants, the impact of such changes on the prevention of COVID-19, especially severe illness, requires continuous assessment. At a minimum, the longevity of protection is likely to be affected, assuming that antibodies are the primary defence mechanism. The level of total antibody in serum after natural infection decreases with a half-life of about 50-100 days52,54,55 and vaccine-induced antibodies also peak shortly after immunization. However, waning antibody levels after vaccination cannot be equated to renewed susceptibility to disease because the immune system has been primed to rapidly mount memory B and T cell responses that mitigate the consequences of repeated infection.

More information about the mechanisms of immune protection against COVID-19 that are poorly understood, such as mucosal immunity and innate immune barriers, as well as the impact of immune protection on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is essential to inform vaccine policies to control the pandemic and for the need for boosters or a next-generation of vaccines as the pandemic transitions to an endemic or epidemic pattern.

Lessons from vaccination against respiratory viruses

The challenges for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine programmes have instructive similarities and potential differences from experiences with other viral vaccines. Vaccines against 17 viral pathogens are approved in the USA. The effects of vaccines can be divided into control, elimination of disease, elimination of infection, and eradication and extinction (Box 1). The first aim of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine programmes is the rapid control of new infections in as many geographical regions as possible, an outcome that depends on the widespread-both within counties and worldwide-uptake of vaccines that effectively reduce transmission. Control also requires broad access to rapid diagnostic methods and surveillance to detect ongoing transmission. Of note, highly effective vaccines can achieve the elimination of disease even if the infection is not eliminated. Smallpox is the only example of vaccine-mediated eradication of an infection in humans, which required a global initiative that combined high levels of vaccine coverage, active surveillance and rapid and targeted vaccination efforts in regions in which outbreaks occurred. The importance of combining sustained immunization campaigns with effective surveillance and rapid molecular diagnosis are hard-learned lessons, as illustrated by the failure to eliminate polio despite the lack of an animal reservoir and the availability of two effective vaccines.

Experiences with viruses that are transmitted by respiratory droplets and/or aerosols but that have persisted in the human population despite the availability of effective vaccines point to obstacles and inform about SARS-CoV-2 vaccine strategies. Considerable achievements in the elimination both of the disease and infections caused by such viruses-including measles, mumps and rubella-have been made in many, but often not in all, geographical regions. Even in optimal circumstances, communities that are under-vaccinated owing to poor access or that resist vaccination serve as reservoirs for the reintroduction of pathogens and disease outbreaks when vaccination coverage falls at the population level.

A lesson from experience with measles, mumps, rubella and varicella vaccines is the importance of two-dose regimens. Because respiratory transmission is efficient, even a low incidence of primary vaccine failure, defined as no seroconversion to the first dose, leaves enough susceptible individuals in the population to support outbreaks. Secondary vaccine failure, defined as disease despite seroconversion, occurs with single-dose regimens that elicited antibodies after one dose, as was observed with the varicella vaccine and also occurs in some cases with two doses of varicella or mumps vaccines56. Under these circumstances, the vaccinated individuals benefit from protection against severe illness, but breakthrough infections remain a source of transmission. Limited information about SARS-CoV-2 vaccines suggests that this pattern of breakthroughs, albeit with markedly reduced severity, may occur but with a frequency that is as yet undetermined at the population level.

In the case of measles, even though the viral fusion protein is genetically stable-in contrast to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2-virus entry is highly efficient and population immunity of 92-95% is required to eliminate transmission, as confirmed by recent outbreaks of measles despite high vaccine coverage57. Measles has a very high basic reproductive number ( R ₀) with transmission from one case to fifteen susceptible individuals, whereas the R ₀ value for SARS-CoV-2 has been modelled at 2.2-5.7 for the Wuhan reference strain58. As long as estimates of transmission of variants of concern remain below measles, control may occur with lower levels of population immunity. Notably-and in contrast to measles-the occurrence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections will interfere with rapid outbreak recognition and provide an avenue for spread within populations and across geographical regions. In this regard, SARS-CoV-2 is more similar to polio, or rubella, for which a strategy of universal and repeated vaccination campaigns rather than outbreak control has been necessary to eliminate congenital disease59.

Childhood vaccines also demonstrate the difficulty of defining immune correlates of protection against breakthrough infections that re-introduce the virus into the community. For example, receiving two doses of measles vaccine correlates with protection even though neutralizing antibody titres may be low and not be boosted by additional doses57. Occurrence of varicella in vaccinated adults appears to reflect lower cellular immune responses, which are not measured by neutralization assays60. The occurrence of mumps in highly vaccinated groups is attributed to waning immunity. Administration of a third dose of vaccine appears to reduce the spread in outbreaks, but an antibody-based immune correlate that would allow targeted revaccination of those at risk has not been established despite extensive study61. These experiences predict that maintaining the benefits of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine programmes will require not only the monitoring of the duration of immunity as determined by serological assays, but also the ongoing local surveillance for infections in vaccinated populations coupled with the tracking of vaccine coverage rates within the community so that gaps can be rapidly addressed. Notably, the only way to identify correlates of protection will be the consistent application of robust and reproducible assays of both T- and B-cell-mediated immunity in vaccine recipients under conditions in which exposures can be documented. Such an effort will be technically challenging for vaccine producers and studies of one vaccine may not inform immune correlates for a different type of vaccine. This presents a major unaddressed challenge to understanding the mechanisms of vaccine protection and the new equilibrium between humans and SARS-CoV-2 that is currently evolving as vaccine coverage is extended. A large study on college campuses is designed to address this challenge (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04811664). In addition, elimination of SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely without immunization of children who may be vectors for asymptomatic transmission. Decades of childhood vaccine experience documents that even with high coverage-sufficient to eliminate disease and infection in almost all individuals-protection of unvaccinated people by herd immunity is not guaranteed when reintroductions occur. Reintroductions of SARS-CoV-2 have the added challenge that these may result from either human or zoonotic sources or both, whereas endemic childhood viruses do not have animal reservoirs.

Large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccine programmes have already had an enormous impact on the burden of COVID-19 disease. Although SARS-CoV-2 may become endemic without being associated with severe disease62, viruses with pathogenic potential may continue to circulate, causing local outbreaks or more widespread epidemics, and requiring vaccine campaigns and possibly ring prophylaxis63 using monoclonal antibodies to eliminate the disease.

The paradigm of antigenic drift and shift in influenza

The experience with influenza A and B vaccines offers a perspective for COVID-19 vaccines when transmission is associated with the capacity of the target virus to undergo seasonal antigenic drift and periodic antigenic shift, which may be caused by recombination in the case of SARS-CoV-264 (as opposed to segment re-assortment in the influenza viruses). Antigenic drift is common to all four antigenically distinct circulating influenza A and B viruses. Most of the key mutations that lead to antigenic drift are located in the globular head of the haemagglutinin (HA), which comprises the receptor-binding motif-which, similar to SARS-CoV-2, appears to be the most structurally and functionally plastic region21-possibly enhancing the efficacy of antibody selection of variants that may evade natural or vaccine-induced immunity.

The degree of antigenic variation or 'antigenic distance' between the HA and neuraminidase proteins of influenza is the basis for needing to update the composition of influenza vaccines frequently. This distance is typically measured in an haemagglutination inhibition assay using ferret or human antisera generated against the influenza vaccine and circulating strains65. Whenever the fold change in titres of antisera in the haemagglutination inhibition assay generated against vaccine strains and tested against circulating strains exceeds 8-10-fold, it typically signals the need to 'upgrade' the vaccine composition (Fig. 3a, b). This exercise is performed for all four viruses that are part of the influenza vaccine mixture-currently H1N1, H3N2, influenza B Yamagata lineage and influenza B Victoria lineage. The need to update vaccines results from the fact that the most variable region of HA (and neuraminidase) is also the immunodominant region and, reciprocally, because the response to more conserved regions elicits antibodies endowed with poor neutralizing activity. It is worth noting that for SARS-CoV-2, the introduction of more than ten mutations in some of the variants of concern such as B.1.351 (Beta)-which has led to a reduced neutralizing titre of antisera from vaccinated donors of approximately tenfold (Fig. 3d, f)-is comparable to the extent of antigenic drift in influenza A and B viruses that typically requires a change in the viruses selected for vaccine production. Indeed, several vaccines were shown to provide modest efficacy against the B.1.351 (Beta) variant66,67. As a consequence of the reduced efficacy, the composition of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines-such as the one developed by Moderna-was recently adapted to match the B.1.351 (Beta) variant and clinical trials testing the immunogenicity of such vaccines are underway (Clinical Trials.gov NCT04785144). Antigenic drift was also shown to occur in human endemic coronaviruses such as HCoV-229E1 (Fig. 3e, f).

a, Structural models of the HA protein of influenza A virus H1N1 from 1999 and 2006 isolates (PDBs 5C0S and 6CF7, respectively), in which mutated residues are highlighted in red and are shown on a single monomer of each trimer. Loss of neutralization titres against parental and drifted strains of H1N1, as previously described65. b, Protein distance of major glycoproteins of influenza viruses. Dendrograms show the protein distance of HA amino acid sequences that are representative of the variability of each virus family. Shown are HAs from all 18 influenza A virus subtypes (multiple strains shown for H1, H3 and H5) and of HAs from influenza B virus from the ancestral virus from 1940 and the two Victoria and Yamagata lineages. Scale bar, 0.100. c, Timeline of influenza pandemics. d, e, The spike ectodomain of SARS-CoV-2 ( d; PDB 6VYb; spike in the open conformation) and the spike ectodomain of HCoV-229E ( e; PDB 6U7H), in which mutated residues are highlighted in red and are shown on a single monomer of each trimer. Loss of neutralization titres against parental and drifted strains of SARS-CoV-2 and HCoV-229E by serum antibodies elicited against the parental strains, as determined previously1,82. f, Protein distance of spike glycoproteins of human and animal coronaviruses. Sarbecoviruses are shown according to the phylogenetic definition of RBD clades83. Scale bar, 0.100. g, Timeline of the emergence of human coronaviruses. The emergence of common-cold coronaviruses is approximate and based on molecular clock dating84. Highlighted in red in b and f are viral strains used in a, d and e.

It remains to be established whether the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 will be accelerated by increasing immunity or whether-by contrast-the reduced circulation of the virus that is expected to occur as a consequence of widespread vaccination may slow down the accumulation of mutations68. In the case in which SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic and will continue to evolve, revaccination scenarios need to be envisioned. These may require the revaccination with the same vaccine or boosting/vaccination with a vaccine based on the most prevalent circulating variants. More difficult to predict is how often revaccinations will be needed and recommended for specific risk groups or for the general population.

As it is the case for influenza, it will be important to assess the possible influence of original antigenic sin in trapping the antibody response by the first response made to the parent antigen69,70. This is a phenomenon in which the immune response to subsequent infection or vaccination is biased towards responses imprinted in an individual's immune system by the persistence of memory B and T cells elicited by previous infections with related viruses. If this holds true for SARS-CoV-2, it might reduce the immunogenicity of vaccines against the variable sites of the spike protein, possibly boosting the response to the most conserved regions, which could be a potential beneficial outcome if cross-reactive antibodies have a protective role71. In this respect, even previous immunity against other human betacoronaviruses could shape subsequent immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection or from vaccination72.

Another lesson from the evolution of influenza viruses is that multiple lineages of the same virus can co-exist and co-circulate. This is the case for the two co-circulating lineages of influenza B virus that originated from a common progenitor in the 1970s, which has led to the independently evolving Victoria and Yamagata lineages and resulted in a decision to convert the traditional trivalent influenza vaccine into a quadrivalent vaccine73. This decision was driven by the difficulty of predicting which of the two lineages would prevail during each season. The co-circulation of different SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the same or different geographical areas may complicate decisions on which lineages merit incorporation into new vaccines and whether these vaccines will need to evolve into multivalent formats that target several variants, like influenza vaccines. It is as yet undetermined how many strains of SARS-CoV-2 will need to be considered when planning an effective long-term vaccine strategy. It is worth noting that until now, a relatively limited set of mutations have independently emerged in multiple variants, pointing to a convergent and potentially constrained evolution of SARS-CoV-2 for immune escape.

A second, but no less important, aspect of the evolution of influenza viruses that may occur with SARS-CoV-2 is antigenic shift-that is, the introduction, through recombination, of antigenically novel forms for viral antigens. In the case of influenza, this involves the acquisition of new genome segments from zoonotic (particularly avian) viruses and has occurred at least four times in the past century: in 1918 (H1N1), in 1957 (H2N2), in 1968 (H3N2) and in 2009 (H1N1) (Fig. 3c). As a parallel, animal betacoronaviruses have already entered the human population five times, including in: 2003 (SARS-CoV), 2012 (MERS-CoV) and 2019 (SARS-CoV-2), and at some earlier time in the case of NL63-CoV and HKU1-CoV, with both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV associated with severe disease (Fig. 3g). MERS-CoV has caused spill-over events from camels to humans since 2012 but has not evolved into a form associated with high levels of human-to-human transmission. There were exceptions, such as in South Korea, where a single imported case resulted in almost 200 infections in a hospital setting74. Therefore, the risk for MERS-CoV evolving into a more transmissible virus should not be underestimated. Notably, the level of sequence similarity between the spike proteins of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is 76%, which is close to the 80% similarity between the pre-pandemic H1N1 strain (A/Solomon Island/03/06) and the pandemic H1N1 swine influenza strain (A/California/04/09). The risk for new sarbecoviruses to cause future zoonotic infections is considerable as this has already occurred twice in the past 20 years. Coronaviruses isolated from bats can efficiently multiply in human lung tissue75. This calls for aggressive development of countermeasures based on pan-reactive vaccines or therapeutics that can be stockpiled and be ready for deployment to avoid the health and economic devastation seen in this pandemic.

In summary, the very recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has not given much time to understand the role and consequences of antigenic drift and shift. These are critical analyses to establish the future needs and requirements for revaccination.

Three possible scenarios of the future of COVID-19

The first-and most worrisome-scenario is that we will not gain rapid control of this pandemic and thus will face a future with ongoing manifestations of severe disease combined with high levels of infection that, in turn, could foster further evolution of the virus. Vaccinations and previous infection could achieve long-term herd immunity, but we will need a very broad application of vaccines worldwide combined with comprehensive disease surveillance by accurate and readily available diagnostic assays or devices76.

A second and more likely scenario is the transition to an epidemic seasonal disease such as influenza. Effective therapies that prevent progression of COVID-19 disease (for example, monoclonal antibodies that reduce hospitalization and death by 70-85%) may bring the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection to levels that are equivalent or even lower than influenza. However, we should remember that the annual mortality burden of influenza, in non-pandemic years, is estimated to be between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths, with up to 650,000 all-cause deaths globally, comprising around 2% of all annual respiratory deaths (two thirds among people who are 65 years and older)77. This is an extremely important health burden and equates to a relatively 'optimistic' view of the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A third scenario is the transition to an endemic disease similar to other human coronavirus infections that have a much lower disease impact than influenza or SARS-CoV-2. There is, however, limited data on the global burden of disease by common human coronaviruses78 and as noted in above, it is not possible to predict with confidence whether further adaptations of SARS-CoV-2 to humans will increase or decrease its intrinsic virulence.

To better predict which scenario is likely to emerge and to better equip the world with an appropriate response, we propose several key questions that need to be answered and critical tools that need to be developed (Box 2). These comprise gaps in our knowledge in terms of epidemiology, immunology and virology, and missing surveillance, prophylactic and therapeutic tools.

This pandemic has shown both the importance of initiatives in individual countries and the interdependence of the world, and the necessity of global cooperation for pandemic control. It is the investment by a limited number of countries that has led to the biomedical discoveries that have brought forward the tools to interrupt the spread of the pandemic79. Yet, the lack of international structures for the implementation of these tools has brought into focus the disparities between advantaged and disadvantaged groups both within countries and between countries. This highlights the current inadequacies in healthcare delivery systems and access to new biomedical interventions80. Global health leaders will need to be vigilant with respect to the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in the near future while assessing the strategies and approaches used in the pandemic to develop more effective structures and processes to ensure a more effective and equitable response for the future.

Box 2 Current key gaps in developing an effective global response

Research questions

Epidemiology

Virology

Immunology

Tools and technologies

Surveillance

Vaccines

Therapeutics

Acknowledgements

We thank D. Stoss, R. Gupta and B. Hubby for insights and S. Bianchi with help with the figures.

Author information

Affiliations

1. Vir Biotechnology, San Francisco, CA, USA

Amalio Telenti, Ann Arvin, Phillip S. Pang & Herbert W. Virgin

2. Department of Integrative Structural and Computational Biology, Scripps Research, La Jolla, CA, USA

Amalio Telenti

3. Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA

Lawrence Corey

4. Humabs Biomed SA, a subsidiary of Vir Biotechnology, Bellinzona, Switzerland

Davide Corti

5. Department of Pathology and Immunology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA

Michael S. Diamond

6. Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA

Michael S. Diamond

7. Department of Molecular Microbiology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA

Michael S. Diamond

8. Department of Microbiology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA

Adolfo García-Sastre

9. Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA

Adolfo García-Sastre

10. Global Health and Emerging Pathogens Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA

Adolfo García-Sastre

11. The Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA

Adolfo García-Sastre

12. Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA

Robert F. Garry

13. Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, School of Life and Environmental Sciences and School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Edward C. Holmes

14. Department of Pathology and Immunology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA

Herbert W. Virgin

15. Department of Internal Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA

Herbert W. Virgin

16. Department of Pathology, Molecular and Cell-Based Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA

Adolfo García-Sastre

Contributions

Conception and design: A.T., P.P. and H.W.V.; drafting of sections: all authors.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Amalio Telenti or Ann Arvin or Lawrence Corey or Davide Corti or Michael S. Diamond or Adolfo García-Sastre or Robert F. Garry or Edward C. Holmes or Phillip S. Pang or Herbert W. Virgin.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

A.T., A.A., D.C., P.P. and H.W.V. are employees of Vir Biotechnology Inc. and may hold shares in Vir Biotechnology Inc. L.C., M.S.D. and E.C.H. are co-founders or consultants of Vir Biotechnology Inc. The Diamond laboratory at Washington University School of Medicine has received sponsored research agreements from Moderna and Vir Biotechnology. The García-Sastre laboratory has received research support from Pfizer, Senhwa Biosciences and 7Hills Pharma. A.G.-S. has consulting agreements for the following companies involving cash and/or stock: Vivaldi Biosciences, Contrafect, 7Hills Pharma, Avimex, Vaxalto, Accurius and Esperovax. R.F.G. is co-founder of Zalgen Labs, a biotechnology company that develops countermeasures to emerging viruses.

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Peer review information Nature thanks Marc Lipsitch, Malik Peiris and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Telenti, A., Arvin, A., Corey, L. et al. After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19. Nature 596, 495-504 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03792-w
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After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19 - Nature

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There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association that the virus will establish with the human population and, in particular, whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease.