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Preparedness for droughts, particularly for fire readiness. For my work, preparedness for flood events (so more La Nina than El Nino...) is perhaps more pressing to being ready for flood damage or avoiding damage.

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Preparedness for droughts, particularly for fire readiness. For my work, preparedness for flood events (so more La Nina than El Nino...) is perhaps more pressing to being ready for flood damage or avoiding damage.

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This goes beyond ENSO...: Predictions for different time scales (coming day, week, month, season) with probabilities and clarity about uncertainties.  A website with a map of SA where we can choose different types of forecasts to display and we can click on zones to see local forecast information as text or graphs. Indices linked to certain risks: flood, fire, agricultural failure, heat wave, etc. would help.  Different levels of display complexity for different users would be nice (a simple one with icons for temp & rain like in TV weather reports). For research work: free online access to all past weather station data timeseries from SAWS!    

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This goes beyond ENSO...: Predictions for different time scales (coming day, week, month, season) with probabilities and clarity about uncertainties.  A website with a map of SA where we can choose different types of forecasts to display and we can click on zones to see local forecast information as text or graphs. Indices linked to certain risks: flood, fire, agricultural failure, heat wave, etc. would help.  Different levels of display complexity for different users would be nice (a simple one with icons for temp & rain like in TV weather reports). For research work: free online access to all past weather station data timeseries from SAWS!    

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For short term forecasts, check across various websites: YR, windy, Accuweather, etc. Seasonal: SAWS forcasts. Historical data for research: DWS & SAEON (free), SAWS & ARC (if can get it...not free), reanalysis datasets (NCEP, etc)

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For short term forecasts, check across various websites: YR, windy, Accuweather, etc. Seasonal: SAWS forcasts. Historical data for research: DWS & SAEON (free), SAWS & ARC (if can get it...not free), reanalysis datasets (NCEP, etc)

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How does ENSO interact with other oscillations (IOD, PDO, etc) to create local weather patterns in SA? Do we understand this well?  Are there parts of the country where ENSO is more or less important and which? How is climate change predicted to impact ENSO?

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How does ENSO interact with other oscillations (IOD, PDO, etc) to create local weather patterns in SA? Do we understand this well?  Are there parts of the country where ENSO is more or less important and which? How is climate change predicted to impact ENSO?

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Is there much of a lag time between detecting El Nino or La Nina conditions in the Pacific and seeing associated weather patterns in SA?

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Is there much of a lag time between detecting El Nino or La Nina conditions in the Pacific and seeing associated weather patterns in SA?

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I think fora like today-which help to clarify the relationship between El Nino and drought-are key because, as Willem said, people often assume El Nino IS drought. There is lots of media here today, which signals the interest in this. Can we have some kind of regular partnership/forum for science/media communication to try and share these messages more widely?

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I think fora like today-which help to clarify the relationship between El Nino and drought-are key because, as Willem said, people often assume El Nino IS drought. There is lots of media here today, which signals the interest in this. Can we have some kind of regular partnership/forum for science/media communication to try and share these messages more widely?

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How have ENSO events impacted the fire season and are there management implications for  natural areas. 

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How have ENSO events impacted the fire season and are there management implications for  natural areas. 

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Considering that ENSO is likely to drive wildfires, are wildfire authorities considering this increased risk in their fire management plans? 

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Considering that ENSO is likely to drive wildfires, are wildfire authorities considering this increased risk in their fire management plans? 

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Hi, What modelling do we have for SADC up to DRC northern border?

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variety of sources depending on what I'm looking for: SAWS and yr.no for short-term forecasts; seasonal forecast worx and IRI for seasonal forecasts/ENSO

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variety of sources depending on what I'm looking for: SAWS and yr.no for short-term forecasts; seasonal forecast worx and IRI for seasonal forecasts/ENSO

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Extreme events as well as increasing temperature trend impacts on biodiversity and tourism infrastructure impacts. We need preparation advice

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stochastic climate forecast ensembles as timeseries that we can use in impact modelling, e.g. flood extents, groundwater models, agricultural models

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stochastic climate forecast ensembles as timeseries that we can use in impact modelling, e.g. flood extents, groundwater models, agricultural models

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Being from a farming community I often come across large scale farmers having a laugh at how irrelevant some of the resources being developed for mass scale farmers are. My question is how is the mass-production farming community being included in the conversation when resources are being developed to aid decisions surrounding food security? How is the community ensuring resources are well adapted to end users?

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Being from a farming community I often come across large scale farmers having a laugh at how irrelevant some of the resources being developed for mass scale farmers are. My question is how is the mass-production farming community being included in the conversation when resources are being developed to aid decisions surrounding food security? How is the community ensuring resources are well adapted to end users?

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The potential impacts on local biodiversity and whether it will have significant impacts on conservation data that we should take into account with regards to things like population numbers and diversity (especially of migratory bird species).

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online available all the time - clarity on the website's update frequency

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online available all the time - clarity on the website's update frequency

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From a Water Resources Management perspective, ENSO (and potential drought) is important for water resources availability, i.e. should we be worried? Should our customers be worried?

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Weather conditions directly influence electricity demand. Being able to anticipate higher demand conditions will enable better maintenance strategies and scheduling.

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As a landscaper I am concerned about the impact on vegetation, urban temperatures and habitability

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As a landscaper I am concerned about the impact on vegetation, urban temperatures and habitability

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Extended droughts have an impact on the country’s water resources. We need to predict the severity of droughts so that we can better prepare for these and conserve water resources ahead of these dry periods.

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Given the complexity of ENSO impacts across the country between the summer rainfall and winter rainfall regions, how do we best communicate ENSO & what it means for various sectors in different areas to people who are not climate experts?

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Given the complexity of ENSO impacts across the country between the summer rainfall and winter rainfall regions, how do we best communicate ENSO & what it means for various sectors in different areas to people who are not climate experts?

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Some perspective perhaps from a forestry point of view. As we are working with really long term crops the El Nino cycle impacts us on more than just a growth level. After three good years of growth there has now been a build up of fuel loads in open areas and with drier conditions under El Nino circumstances this becomes a big risk in terms of forest fires. Hot, windy conditions could lead to widespread, fast moving fires that can threaten thousands of hectares of plantation forests. The establishment of trees also becomes problematic as we might plant it them this year, under relatively weak El Nino conditions but getting the trees to survive over the rest of the cycle will be challenging and could lead to crop losses a year or two down the line not only due to small trees dying, but there will also be a loss in growth of older trees.

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Connection to groups doing climate work, to share ideas and amplify efforts to the community

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Connection to groups doing climate work, to share ideas and amplify efforts to the community

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Lack of detail around the impacts to the marine environment (especially fisheries and coastal areas) that ENSO has, as well as the cumulative impacts of both climate change and ENSO on sensitive ecosystems.

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Practical outcomes-based coordination between different sectors - what tools can be used?

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Short and long term rainfall forecasts either emailed or accessible on the web.

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Primarily SAWS; NOAA (for ENSO monitoring); BOM Australia (for IOD monitoring); MeteoFrance & JTWC for monitoring of tropical weather systems in the SWIO.

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Important to use this forum as a way of unpacking variety of ways which ENSO impacts environment and how society can respond. E.g. attribution of climate change/ENSO and wildfire is often made in media however poor fire/vegetation management is sometimes just as important a driver but never spoken about... 

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Important to use this forum as a way of unpacking variety of ways which ENSO impacts environment and how society can respond. E.g. attribution of climate change/ENSO and wildfire is often made in media however poor fire/vegetation management is sometimes just as important a driver but never spoken about... 

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I'm concerned about the ways that children's specific needs and vulnerabilities were overlooked during COVID, and wanting to be sure we child-proof our response to el nino, la nina and climate change

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I'm concerned about the ways that children's specific needs and vulnerabilities were overlooked during COVID, and wanting to be sure we child-proof our response to el nino, la nina and climate change

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early warning, and forecasting will help Eskom's hydroelectric power generation capacity, as the SOE relies on water resources to produce electricity. Lower water levels may result in reduced power generation from hydroelectric plants, which can lead to power shortages and increased reliance on other, potentially more expensive, sources of energy.

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early warning, and forecasting will help Eskom's hydroelectric power generation capacity, as the SOE relies on water resources to produce electricity. Lower water levels may result in reduced power generation from hydroelectric plants, which can lead to power shortages and increased reliance on other, potentially more expensive, sources of energy.

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Regular (monthly) forecasts, via either online interactive platform or email service, specifically looking at wind patterns and storm events. An archive of past storm patterns as well as predictions that would impact the coastal regions.

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YR.no

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Just sharing a thought... This youth-focused education and capacity-building nonprofit generates climate courses for youth.  (Climate Science)  Wondering if it will be useful to develop a similar open-access resource. That is also in the form of short simple yet still reflecting the necessary complexity, scientifically sound content. However, regionally focused and specifically developed for members of the Media industry wishing to equip themselves to effectively report on these issues?

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Just sharing a thought... This youth-focused education and capacity-building nonprofit generates climate courses for youth.  (Climate Science)  Wondering if it will be useful to develop a similar open-access resource. That is also in the form of short simple yet still reflecting the necessary complexity, scientifically sound content. However, regionally focused and specifically developed for members of the Media industry wishing to equip themselves to effectively report on these issues?

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Take action on system climate solutions. Science-backed, easy-to-understand climate education for everyone.

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ideally early so that we can anticipate, plan ahead and communicate to communities and families - so that they too are equipped to make safe/healthy choices

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ideally early so that we can anticipate, plan ahead and communicate to communities and families - so that they too are equipped to make safe/healthy choices

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Interactive website to view and download data easily. Summarised data should also be supplied. Baseline studies would be helpful across various sectors to better understand future impacts.

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to what extent are we building capacity of local municipalities and civil society organisations to respond?

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to what extent are we building capacity of local municipalities and civil society organisations to respond?

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From a Disaster Management perspective, early warnings provide us with enough time to plan sufficiently, whether for potential drought or flooding. This fits with the proactive nature of the National Disaster Management Act (57 of 2002).

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Historical weather data as well as forecast models, it would be nice to get it through webservices

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Historical weather data as well as forecast models, it would be nice to get it through webservices

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YR, meteoblue, UAV forecast or Windy depending on the reason why I need to check the weather.

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SAWS, OCIMS DeSTs, as well as international source (Coprnicus Marine, NOAA, yr etc)

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Extreme weather events associated with El Nino, such as heatwaves and droughts, can lead to increased electricity demand. High temperatures, for instance, can result in greater usage of air conditioning systems, which strains the power grid. Eskom may struggle to meet this increased demand, especially because its power generation capacity is already  compromised

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Extreme weather events associated with El Nino, such as heatwaves and droughts, can lead to increased electricity demand. High temperatures, for instance, can result in greater usage of air conditioning systems, which strains the power grid. Eskom may struggle to meet this increased demand, especially because its power generation capacity is already  compromised

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What are the connections between El Ninos and Benguela Ninos, as well as how do ENSO events impact the SA coastal waters and oceans - fisheries are important economic contributors, and the lack of detail around the ENSO impacts is worrying.

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As a small-scale animal farmer, El Nino will harm the grazing quality and quantity, just like 2015-2016. I fear that the current  projection may be devastating 

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As a small-scale animal farmer, El Nino will harm the grazing quality and quantity, just like 2015-2016. I fear that the current  projection may be devastating 

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information on the intensity of the projected El Nino will be beneficial although it may seem and sound impossible.  

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information on the intensity of the projected El Nino will be beneficial although it may seem and sound impossible.  