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Taiwan president wrote to Pope in Vatican, claims war with China is not an option
Written by Ben Blanchard, Bureau Chief, Taiwan at Reuters
Lives in Taipei City, Taiwan

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TAIPEI, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has written to Pope Francis to say that war between Taiwan and China is not an option and only by respecting the Taiwanese people's insistence on sovereignty and freedom can there be healthy ties with Beijing.

The Vatican is Chinese-claimed Taiwan's sole European diplomatic ally, and Taipei has watched with concern as Pope Francis has moved to improve relations with China. The democratically governed island has formal ties with only 14 countries, largely due to Chinese pressure.

In the letter, sent in response to the pope's World Day Of Peace message on Jan. 1, Tsai said war in Ukraine has made the world appreciate the value of peace and that maintaining regional security has become an important consensus.

"In my National Day speech last year, I reiterated that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are the foundation for the development of cross-Strait relations and armed confrontation is absolutely not an option," Tsai said, according to a copy of the letter released by her office on Monday.

"Only by respecting the commitment of the Taiwanese people to our sovereignty, democracy, and freedom can there be a foundation for resuming constructive interaction across the Taiwan Strait," she said, referring to the speech she gave on Oct. 10 last year.

China staged war games near Taiwan last August, and Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.

Tsai wrote that Taiwan has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and provided masks and protective equipment to countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, as it "hopes to give the world a better Taiwan".

"Though we are still excluded from the World Health Organization, we are convinced that taking the lead in making positive contributions will drive a 'virtuous circle'," she added.

Taiwan has complained repeatedly that its exclusion from the WHO, due to Chinese pressure, has hampered efforts to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Both the WHO and China have denied that.

Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims, saying that only the island's 23 million people can decide their future.

Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Bernadette Baum

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Taiwan president tells pope war with China not an option

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Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has written to Pope Francis to say that war between Taiwan and China is not an option and only by respecting the Taiwanese people's insistence on sovereignty and freedom can there be healthy ties with Beijing.

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Forbes- US Defending Taiwan would have heavy toll on Sub fleet

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Forbes- US Defending Taiwan would have heavy toll on Sub fleet

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If and when China attacks Taiwan, the U.S. Navy's submarines could be the first defenders to take shots at the Chinese invasion fleet.

How many Chinese ships the American attack boats can sink, and how quickly, could make all the difference in the apocalyptic "ultra-mega" war, to borrow a phrase from Ian Easton, an analyst with the Virginia-based Project 2049 Institute.

A successful U.S. submarine campaign could help bring the war to a swift end, preserving Taiwan's independence and blunting China's global ambitions. A failed undersea campaign, by contrast, could invite Chinese dominion over Taiwan and the whole Western Pacific region.

Win or lose, the U.S. Navy should brace for heavy losses. Even a victorious USN sub fleet could suffer staggering losses in battle with the Chinese navy around Taiwan.

That's one sobering result of a series of war games organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. In most of the 24 iterations of the game, "submarines were able to enter the Chinese defensive zone and wreak havoc with the Chinese fleet," analysts Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian and Eric Heginbotham concluded.

But even in the scenarios that were optimistic for Taiwanese and allied victory, the U.S. undersea force, which today numbers 53 nuclear-powered attack and cruise-missile submarines, lost up to a quarter of its boats and thousands of sailors.

The losses are indicative of the intensity of the submarine campaign that CSIS projected. The think-tank assumed the U.S. would commit all or most of its undersea fleet to a war with China, perhaps setting aside just a few boats to continue shadowing Russian ballistic-missile subs.

The 40 or 50 submarines would organize in squadrons of four boats apiece and deploy to U.S. bases in Guam, at Wake Island and in Yokosuka, Japan. One squadron should be on station in the narrow Taiwan Strait when the first Chinese rockets fall and the invasion fleet sets sail.

In CSIS's war games, those four boats sank Chinese ship after Chinese ship until their torpedoes and missiles ran out or Chinese forces hunted them down. The other nine or ten USN sub-squadrons meanwhile synchronized into what the Cancians and Heginbotham described as an undersea "conveyor belt." "They hunted, moved back to port, reloaded, then moved forward again and hunted," the analysts explained.

"Each submarine would sink two large amphibious vessels (and an equal number of decoys and escorts) over the course of a 3.5-day turn," the Cancians and Heginbotham wrote. In two weeks of intensive fighting, the submarines sank as many as 64 Chinese ships, including many of the PLA Navy's biggest amphibious ships and surface combatants-and potentially some of the PLAN's aircraft carriers, as well.

The Chinese ships that succeeded in avoiding American submarines weren't safe, of course. The same CSIS war games found that U.S. Air Force bombers firing stealthy cruise missiles posed an even greater danger to Chinese ships than did U.S. Navy subs.

In the scenario where the Taiwanese and their allies won most decisively, the Chinese amphibious and transport fleet lost 90% of its ships-and was unable to supply the few Chinese battalions the fleet had managed to land on Taiwan. With no sea lines of communication, Chinese troops on the island quickly ran out of fuel and ammunition.

But even that decisive victory came at a high cost for the Americans. Chinese escorts, aircraft and submarines sank a fifth of the deployed American subs every three or four days throughout the two-week war. In the end, perhaps a dozen or more American submarines lay wrecked at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, radioactive tombs for as many as 2,000 submariners.

In light of their disproportionate contribution to the Taiwan campaign, submarines absolutely should be a top priority in U.S. defense planning, the Cancians and Heginbotham wrote. "Given the value of submarines, acquiring more is an obvious recommendation."

That's easier said than done when a single nuclear attack boat costs around $3 billion and just a handful of American shipyards can build their components. The Pentagon plans to acquire two attack boats a year for the foreseeable future in order to maintain, and eventually grow, the overall undersea force.

"The U.S. Navy should commit to funding those two per year even if shipbuilding funds get tight," the CSIS analysts recommended. The Navy also could speed up the sub fleet's expansion by keeping older boats in service longer.

If the think-tank's war games are predictive, the U.S. fleet will need every submarine it can muster in order to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
This story has been updated to correct some of the submarine-attrition calculations.

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The U.S. Navy Submarine Force Could Sink The Chinese Fleet And Save Taiwan, But At The Cost Of A Quarter Of Its Boats

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If and when China attacks Taiwan, the U.S. Navy's submarines could be the first forces to take shots at the Chinese invasion fleet. How many Chinese ships the American attack boats can sink, and how quickly, could make all the difference.

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China changing leader for unification to try and have more peaceful change of power compared to Hong Kong

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KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer

A source familiar with the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party has pulled back the curtain on General Secretary Xi Jinping's leadership reshuffle last October.

Why were some leaders retained to serve another term, while others were shown the door?

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Analysis: Xi puts top brain in charge of Taiwan unification strategy

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KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer A source familiar with the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party has pulled back the curtain on General Secretary Xi Jinping's leadership reshuffle last October. Why were some leaders retained to serve another term, while others were shown the door?

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Multiple China planes and ships crossed the midpoint in the taiwan strait, Taiwan scrambled own jets in response

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TAIPEI (Taiwan News) - The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked 34 Chinese military aircraft and nine naval vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Tuesday (Jan. 31) and 6 a.m. on Wednesday (Feb. 1).

Of the 34 People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, 20 were tracked in Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND. Two Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets were monitored in the northeast sector, while two Shaanxi Y-8 electronic intelligence planes, one Harbin BZK-005 reconnaissance drone, one BZK-007 reconnaissance drone, one Shaanxi Y-8 electronic warfare plane, and one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane entered the southwest corner of the ADIZ.

Meanwhile, six Shenyang J-16 fighter planes either entered the southwest corner of the ADIZ or crossed the Taiwan Strait median line. In addition, four Chengdu J-10 jet fighters and two Shenyang J-11 fighter jets also crossed the median line.

In response, Taiwan sent aircraft, naval ships, and used land-based missiles to monitor PLA aircraft and vessels.

Since September 2020, China has increased its use of gray zone tactics by routinely sending aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ. Gray zone tactics are defined as "an effort or series of efforts beyond steady-state deterrence and assurance that attempts to achieve one's security objectives without resort to direct and sizable use of force."

Flight paths of 20 out of 34 PLA aircraft. (MND image)

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Taiwan tracks 34 Chinese military planes, 9 naval ships around country | Taiwan News | 2023-02-01 10:37:00

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TAIPEI (Taiwan News) - The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked 34 Chinese military aircraft and nine naval vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Tuesday (Jan. 31) and 6 a.m. on Wednesday (Feb. 1). Of the 34 People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, 20 were tracked in Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND.

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Quatari based Al Jazeera, written by reuters

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Quatari based Al Jazeera, written by reuters

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Michael McCaul, the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US House of Representatives, says conflict with China over Taiwan may happen in 2025.

Tourists look on as a Chinese military helicopter flies past Pingtan island, one of mainland China's closest points to Taiwan [File: Hector Retamal/AFP]

A top Republican in the United States Congress says the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high" after a US general caused consternation with a memo suggesting war would happen in two years' time.

In a memo dated February 1 but released on Friday, General Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its roughly 110,000 members saying: "My gut tells me we will fight in 2025."

Michael McCaul, the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US House of Representatives, on Sunday told Fox News "I hope he is wrong... I think he is right though."

General Minihan's views do not represent the Pentagon, but show concern at the highest levels of the US military over a possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

Both the US and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024, potentially creating an opportunity for China to take military action, Minihan wrote.

If China failed to take control of Taiwan bloodlessly then "they are going to look at a military invasion in my judgement. We have to be prepared for this", McCaul said.

He accused the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden of projecting weakness after the bungled US pullout from Afghanistan, which could make war with China more likely.

"The odds are very high that we could see a conflict with China and Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific," McCaul said.

The White House declined to comment on McCaul's remarks.

'Highly unlikely'

Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said he disagreed with Minihan's assessment.

Smith told Fox News Sunday that war with China is "not only not inevitable, it is highly unlikely. We have a very dangerous situation in China. But I think generals need to be very cautious about saying we're going to war, it's inevitable".

The United States needs to be in a position to deter China from military action against Taiwan, "but I'm fully confident we can avoid that conflict if we take the right approach", Smith said.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said earlier this month that he seriously doubted that ramped-up Chinese military activity near the Taiwan Strait was a sign of an imminent invasion of the island by Beijing.

On Saturday, a Pentagon official said the general's comments were "not representative of the department's view on China".

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'Very high' odds of war with China, US Republican warns

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Michael McCaul, the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US House of Representatives, says conflict with China over Taiwan may happen in 2025. A top Republican in the United States Congress says the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high" after a US general caused consternation with a memo suggesting war would happen in two years' time.

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Taiwan firm fires missile believed able to reach deep into mainland China

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NCSIST also outlined drone plan involving local companies developing five types of UAV for use by island's military.

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US spreading involvement in the region (right leaning)

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US spreading involvement in the region (right leaning)

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Unable to find any left leaning news sources with a similar article

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The United States intends to ramp up its military presence in the Philippines amid escalating tensions between China and the island of Taiwan, authorities for the U.S. and the Philippines announced Thursday.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has agreed to allow American military troops to be stationed at several bases on the Philippine islands to expand its presence in the region to ensure stability and to increase "interoperability" with regional allies.

Under the agreement, which was announced by the senior leaders at Camp Aguinaldo military headquarters in Manila, Philippines, U.S. forces will be granted access to four more Philippine military camps, giving them areas to provide troops, training and military resources as the countries look to deter an increasingly aggressive China.

During a joint press conference, Marcos commented on the "complicated" situation in the Pacific and said his country was reliant on the strength of the U.S. and the partnership between the two countries to prevent tensions from escalating into a potential military conflict.
DEFENSE SECRETARY AUSTIN 'SERIOUSLY DOUBTS' CHINA INVASION OF TAIWAN IS 'IMMINENT'
It is "something we can only navigate properly with the help our allies and partners," he said.

Austin echoed these remarks, calling the Philippines "a key and an important ally" and said the American global policy was to continue strengthening this relationship in every way possible.

"And so from the defense perspective, we will continue to work together with our great partners to build and modernize your capability as well as increase our interoperability. So we are very, very happy to be here once again, and I look forward to a great discussion," the defense secretary said.
CHINESE MILITARY AIRCRAFT ENTER TAIWAN'S AIR SPACE FOR FOURTH TIME IN A WEEK, DEFENSE MINISTRY SAYS
The Philippines and the U.S. also said in a joint statement that "substantial" progress has been made in projects at five Philippine military camps, where U.S. military personnel were earlier granted access by Filipino officials under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, or EDCA.

"The EDCA is a key pillar of the US-Philippines alliance, which supports combined training, exercises, and interoperability between our forces," the U.S. and the Philippines said.

The joint statement continued: "The addition of these new EDCA locations will allow more rapid support for humanitarian and climate-related disasters in the Philippines, and respond to other shared challenges."

"The Philippine-US alliance has stood the test of time and remains ironclad," they added. "We look forward to the opportunities these new sites will create to expand our cooperation together."

Additional details concerning the location and size of additional Philippine camps where U.S. forces would be allowed to construct barracks, warehouses and hangars were not provided.
US, JAPAN TO PLACE ANTI-SHIP MISSILES ON OKINAWA AMID RISING CHINA TENSIONS
Austin noted the U.S. was not seeking a "permanent" presence at the bases.

Marcos Jr., who took office in June, has negotiated regional deterrence with leaders of Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan as China continues military operations in the Pacific.

China has also domineered waterways amid territorial disputes over the busy and resource-rich South China Sea.

Washington maintains no official claim over disputes in the South China Sea but has said it would defend against potential attacks on regional allies. President Biden said the U.S. would send troops to defend Taiwan, should China invade the semi-autonomous region, though the White House later refuted this statement.

The U.S. and most of the world recognize the One China Policy, which says Taiwan is not a country or independent of China. Instead, the policy says the democratic region falls exclusively under Chinese governance.
AIR FORCE GENERAL PREDICTS WAR WITH CHINA IN 2025: 'I HOPE I AM WRONG'
Washington has deployed warships and surveillance aircraft for patrols in the region, which it says is to promote freedom of navigation and the rule of law, which has infuriated Beijing.

Some protesters were seen in the streets outside the Austin-Marcos meeting. Several signs called for the removal of U.S. troops.

The Philippines is the U.S.'s oldest treaty ally in Asia and used to host two of the largest U.S. Navy and Air Force bases outside the American mainland. The bases were shut down in the early 1990s.

The Philippine Constitution prohibits the permanent basing of foreign troops but the EDCA defense pact allows visiting American forces to indefinitely stay in rotating batches within designated Philippine camps. The agreement makes allowances for defense equipment but does not allow nuclear weapons.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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US, Philippines announce new agreement to ramp up military presence amid China-Taiwan tensions

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The United States intends to ramp up its military presence in the Philippines amid escalating tensions between China and the island of Taiwan, authorities for the U.S. and the Philippines announced Thursday. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

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China meeting with Iran leaders

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Business Insider- china war could cause new great depression

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Business Insider- china war could cause new great depression

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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a real and dangerous possibility that could wreck armies and ruin the global economy worse than the 1929 stock market crash

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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could bring about a global recession and significant military losses for both countries and possibly others.

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US Vows to defend Philippines from China after Chinese Naval Ship blind Philippine Coast Guard sailors on a patrol vessel.

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The United States renewed a warning that it would defend its treaty ally if Filipino forces come under attack in the disputed South China Sea, after a Chinese coast guard ship allegedly hit a Philippine patrol vessel with military-grade laser that briefly blinded some of its crew.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said China's "dangerous operational behavior directly threatens regional peace and stability, infringes upon freedom of navigation in the South China Sea as guaranteed under international law and undermines the rules-based international order."

"The United States stands with our Philippine allies," Price said in a statement.

He said an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft, including those of the coast guard in the South China Sea, would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments under a 1951 treaty. The treaty obligates the allies to help defend one another in case of an external attack.
CHINA SHIP ALLEGEDLY AIMED 'MILITARY-GRADE LASER' AT PHILIPPINES VESSEL, TEMPORARILY BLINDING CREW

Reuters reported that Manila's Army chief, Romeo Brawner, said Wednesday that the Philippines and the United States will this year carry out their biggest joint military drills since 2015.

He told reporters that the annual "Balikatan" exercises will occur in the second quarter and involve more than last year's 8,900 troops.

"All of these exercises that we are doing are in response to all types of threats that we may be facing in the future, both man-made and natural," Brawner said.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. summoned Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian to Manila on Tuesday to express his serious concern "over the increasing frequency and intensity of actions by China against the Philippine coast guard and fishermen," communications secretary Cheloy Garafil said without elaborating.

The Department of Foreign Affairs separately sent a strongly worded diplomatic protest to the Chinese Embassy that "condemned the shadowing, harassment, dangerous maneuvers, directing of military-grade laser, and illegal radio challenges" by the Chinese ship.

The incident took place on Feb. 6 when the Chinese coast guard ship beamed high-grade lasers to block the Philippine patrol vessel BRP Malapascua from approaching Second Thomas Shoal on a resupply mission to Filipino forces there, according to Philippine officials.

China claims the South China Sea virtually in its entirety, putting it on a collision course with other claimants. Chinese naval forces have been accused of using military-grade lasers previously against Australian military aircraft on patrol in the South China Sea and other spots in the Pacific.

Despite friendly overtures to Beijing by former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his successor, Marcos Jr., who met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in January in Beijing, tensions have persisted, drawing in closer military alliance between the Philippines and the U.S.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Monday that a Philippine coast guard vessel trespassed into Chinese waters without permission. Chinese coast guard vessels responded "professionally and with restraint at the site in accordance with China's law and international law," he said, without elaborating or mentioning the use of laser.

Price said the Chinese coast guard's "provocative and unsafe" conduct interfered with the Philippines' "lawful operations" in and around Second Thomas Shoal.

In July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on China to comply with a 2016 arbitration ruling that invalidated Beijing's vast territorial claims in the South China Sea and warned that Washington was obligated to defend the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty.

On Monday, Price reiterated that the "legally binding decision" underscored that China "has no lawful maritime claims to the Second Thomas Shoal." China has long rejected the ruling and continues to defy it. The Philippines filed nearly 200 diplomatic protests against China's aggressive actions in the disputed waters in 2022 alone.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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State Department vows US will defend Philippines if necessary after China ship blinds crew with military laser

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The United States renewed a warning that it would defend its treaty ally if Filipino forces come under attack in the disputed South China Sea, after a Chinese coast guard ship allegedly hit a Philippine patrol vessel with military-grade laser that briefly blinded some of its crew. U.S.

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Story about China denying it fired a laser at the Philippine's Coast Guard Vessel, although crew was temporarily blinded

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Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, February 16) - China on Wednesday denied that its coast guard ship pointed a military-grade laser at the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel, saying the use of laser was for "navigation safety."

The denial came after nations expressed support for the Philippines and called out the Chinese Coast Guard's (CCG) recent actions in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), particularly the laser-pointing incident that temporarily blinded the crew of the PCG ship and disrupted their resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said the PCG's report "does not reflect the truth." He maintained that the CCG ship only responded in accordance with Chinese law, and warned the PCG to leave the waters near Ayungin Shoal in the WPS.

"During that process, the China Coast Guard ship used hand-held laser speed detector and hand-held greenlight pointer to measure the distance and speed of the Philippine vessel and signal directions to ensure navigation safety," Wang told the media.

"We need to highlight the fact that the China Coast Guard ship did not direct lasers at the Philippine crew, and the hand-held equipment does not inflict damage on anything or anyone on the vessel. The Philippine side's allegation does not reflect the truth," he added.

The Department of Foreign Affairs said the diplomatic protest was sent to the Chinese Embassy on Tuesday, condemning the "shadowing, harassment, dangerous maneuvers, directing of military-grade laser, and illegal radio challenges by CCG vessel 5205 against PCG vessel BRP Malapascua on 6 February 2023."

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. also summoned Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian to express "serious concern" over the incident last Tuesday.

Wang said the ambassador "clarified the facts" with the Philippine leaders and communication was being done through bilateral liaison mechanisms.

"The Philippine side has learned what actually happened. We stand ready to work with the Philippine side to fully deliver on the important common understandings reached between the two presidents, continue to properly handle maritime issues through friendly consultation and jointly uphold peace and stability in the South China Sea," he added.

In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague unanimously ruled in favor of the Philippines in its case against China. The five-member arbitral tribunal invalidated Beijing's claims and recognized Manila's sovereign rights in areas within its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

Reacting to China's latest statement, House Deputy Minority Leader France Castro told CNN Philippines she believes the PCG's report.

"We think this a direct attack and aggression to our country," she added.

Castro also noted that Manila "should be strong this time" when it comes to dealing with the acts of Beijing. This can be done by increasing patrols in the WPS together with other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

READ: Ex-NSA Carlos on China's aggressions: Let's stop being meek, go on the offensive

She also urged Southeast Asian leaders to establish the code of conduct in the South China Sea, which will determine the allowable actions in the disputed waters.

Given the presence of American troops in the country, Castro said the Philippines should be also careful to avoid getting entangled in the issues between the United States and China.

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China denies its coast guard ship pointed laser at PH vessel

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Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, February 16) - China on Wednesday denied that its coast guard ship pointed a military-grade laser at the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel, saying the use of laser was for "navigation safety."