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https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2019/08/01/Afghan-conflict-returnees-better-off-refugees

https://www.unrefugees.org/news/afghanistan-refugee-crisis-explained/#Why%20have%20people%20from%20Afghanistan%20been%20forced%20to%20flee?

https://response.reliefweb.int/afghanistan/natural-disasters-dashboard

https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/one-year-later-taliban-reprise-repressive-rule-struggle-build-state

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/taliban-afghanistan#:~:text=The%20Taliban%20have%20prohibited%20most,and%20prevented%20women%20from%20working.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2020_Afghanistan_attacks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_Kabul_(2021)

https://usahello.org/life-in-usa/daily-life/find-place-to-live/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20government%20offers%20public,Refugees

https://apnews.com/article/politics-975dd3cff6825885d8b73fb521c5ed39#:~:text=The%20refugees%20were%20housed%20at,Air%20Force%20Base%2C%20New%20Mexico.

https://www.acaps.org/country/iran/crisis/afghan-refugees#:~:text=The%20situation%20for%20Afghan%20refugees,separation%2C%20violence%2C%20and%20persecution.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93Iran_border#:~:text=The%20border%20traverses%20a%20generally,main%20border%20crossing%20is%20located.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Islam%20is%20the%20third%20largest,of%20the%20total%20U.S.%20population.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1349941/iran-share-of-muslim-population-by-type/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20around%2098.5%20percent,belong%20to%20ethnic%20minority%20groups.

https://www.unhcr.org/ir/2019/12/18/afghanistan-pakistan-and-iran-commit-to-new-afghan-support-platform-at-refugee-forum/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/nyregion/afghan-refugees-nj-military-base.html

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Settlement Activities
- There are four main groups of Afghan refugees living in Iran: Afghans with amayesh (refugee identity cards) cards, Afghans with Afghan passports and an Iranian visa, undocumented Afghans, and registered Afghans through headcounts.
- In 2022, Iran hosts around 780,000 registered Afghan refugees and another 2.2 million are either undocumented or have laissez-passer. About 96% of Afghan refugees choose to settle in urban areas, the rest find shelter in about 20 refugee settlements across the country.
- About 500,000 – 1,000,000 arrived in Iran after August of 2021, after the Taliban takeover.
- Almost 99% of all Iranians are Muslim.

Environmental Impacts:
- The abundance of Afghan refugees escaping to Iran will cause local resource exhaustion and pollution.
- Additional structures will need to be built to shelter the refugees, polluting the environment, and taking up space.

Cultural Impacts:
- Iran has started to loosen policies on Afghan refugees. This is a political impact because this choice of Iran reflects its standpoint on the Afghan refugee crisis.
- The waves of Afghan refugees may further polarize the already discriminated religious minorities in Iran and those minorities may conform to the majority and become Muslim. This is a demographic and social impact because the Afghan refugees first change the population structure of Iran (Increasing numbers of Muslims), and also affect how religious minorities are treated socially in Iran.
- Afghan refugees will contribute to the economy in Iran by working and consuming local products (Economic).
- The abundance of undocumented Afghan refugees has affected Iran demographically, as more displaced Afghans will follow in their footsteps if they see these undocumented Afghan refugees are mostly not restricted in Iran.
- The sheer number of undocumented Afghan refugees has also fueled the superiority some Iranians feel towards Afghans. This is a social impact because it impacts how Iranians and Afghans interact with each other.

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Afghan refugees battle Iranian discrimination

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Explicit Costs:
- Choosing to migrate to Iran from an American Military base is giving up benefits like reduced housing prices in America, while due to the large number of refugees in Iran, there are fewer policies benefiting refugees. The opportunity cost is also large since Afghan refugees are given the choice to live somewhere in America.
- If crossing the border from Afghanistan, refugees risk persecution and violence from the Taliban, and for people living far off from the border, it is even harder to leave the country as the Taliban rules three-quarters of the country and the government has basically collapsed.
- Due to the economic crisis caused by the collapse of the Afghan government, the form of transportation and living resources will be a large issue for Afghans trying to cross the border. The Afghan Iranian border is generally inhospitable and has few inhabitants, while the Zabol-Zaranj area, though safer from natural hazards, has often been the battleground of the Taliban and

Implicit Costs:
- The fear of persecution from terrorist forces in Afghanistan and around the path to the border for Afghans that chose to cross the border.
- The regret Afghans from American military bases might feel from choosing Iran over another country.

Explicit Benefits:
- More employment opportunities are in Iran for Afghan refugees and Afghans generally have a better reputation in Iran than in other countries. Less discrimination against Afghans.

Implicit Benefits:
- Around 98.5% of Iranians identify as Muslims, so the primarily Muslim Afghan refugees would be in an environment that supports and respects their culture, while countries with different cultural structures might treat Muslims as outsiders.
- There are many Afghan refugees in Iran, so Afghan refugees that choose to migrate to Iran will be well accepted in the community.

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Afghan refugees trying to cross the border are given the choice to cross into neighboring countries, Iran being one of them. Afghan refugees previously airlifted to American military bases also have the choice of settling in Iran, but they have more options like France or America to settle in.

Pull Factors:
- Iran is among one of the countries Afghan refugees can resettle into from American military bases, it would be easier to migrate to Iran in comparison to some other countries.
- Iran and Afghanistan share a border, so it is easier for those who were not sheltered by American military bases to reach Iran.
- Iran and Pakistan hold the largest amount of Afghan refugees, Afghan refugees may conform to the majority and follow the footsteps of the first refugees.

Push Factors:
- Afghans trying to cross the border may only have Iran as an option because of distance and location.
- Most Afghans not airlifted to America live in an unstable and dangerous environment, they are forced to leave.

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Iran and Pakistan are currently the countries housing the most Afghan refugees, many choose to cross the border from Afghanistan to Iran in hopes of settling there.

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Refugee representatives, leaders from the Islamic Republics of Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, along with the UNHCR have gathered because of the ongoing Afghan refugee crisis to launch a new support platform for the SSAR, the Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees.

This platform would enhance coordination and humanitarian investments towards refugee resettlement, also providing lasting solutions for displaced refugees.

The SSAR strategy is now recognized as a global framework for refugee resettlement, and will also be benefiting other refugee crisis in the future.

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Afghan mother and children at a park in Liberty Village

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Middle: Settlement Activities and Impacts

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Middle: Settlement Activities and Impacts

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Settlement Activities:
- A community around Joint Base: Liberty Village's population skyrocketed in a short period of time to hold 11,000 displaced Afghans, now with a population larger than half the towns combined in New Jersey.
- Temporary housing was built around the base to house Afghan refugees. This is a physical settlement activity because it is creating structures physically.
- Some Afghan Muslims were settled in areas with fewer Afghan refugees, and due to the small proportion of Muslims in America, they might feel uncomfortable in a foreign religious environment.
- The American government assisted Afghan refugees in resettlement and provided Special Immigrant Visas to many. This is both a cultural and physical settlement activity because the support to displaced Afghans would guild a globally positive reputation, and with the Visas, Afghan refugees would be able to physically resettle in America.

Environmental Impacts:
- The sudden drastic increase in population in Liberty Village resulted in a peak of local pollution and resource depletion. Avigail Ziv, executive director for New York and New Jersey at the International Rescue Committee, stated that the biggest challenge is the pace of the arrivals, and that "[t]his is a really unprecedented situation".
- The abundance of temporary housing also damaged the ecosystems and environment around Liberty Village.

Cultural Impacts:
- The Afghanistan population is 99.7% Muslim, and the thousands of Afghan refugees accepted into America yearly impact the local culture. As Muslims forbid the consumption of pork and alcohol, local food suppliers and staff in the military bases will need to adapt to their culture. This is a demographic impact as the local population structure is being affected.
- Conflict may arise between Muslim Afghan refugees and local Americans, as more conservative Muslims may be more culturally sensitive and offended by American practices like eating pork, and alcohol, and not wearing traditional Muslim clothing. This is a social impact because it is negatively impacting the relationship between Muslim Afghans and local Americans.
- Due to the large discount the American government gave the refugees for housing, and many of these chosen housing was public or subsided, locals may be unhappy about the refugees’ occupation of the housing and the cheaper price they pay. Which could result in the polarization of this group of refugees. This is a social and economic impact because it first negatively impacts the relationship between Afghan refugees and locals, and it also impacts the local economy, since the discounted money needs to be repaid by the government or other organizations.
- The large wave of Afghan refugees will also impact the local economy since there will be more consumers and higher demand for living necessities, providing a business opportunity for locals.

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Costs of Leaving:
Explicit:
- Between the summer of 2021 and 2022, there were about 260 million USD of needed repairs in the military bases. The abundance of refugees wore down many of the temporary housing.

Implicit:

- The large difference between Muslim culture and American culture may be hard for some Afghan refugees to accept, as almost 100% of all Afghans in Afghanistan are Muslim while only about 1% of the U.S. population is Muslim.
- Opportunity cost: Gave up the chance to cross the border to Iran or Pakistan to come to America, may feel regret.

Benefits of Leaving:
Explicit:
- As the Afghan refugees awaited the processing of their Visas and resettlement, they received medical care and extremely cheap temporary housing.

- The American government also assisted in resetting Afghan refugees and provided Special Immigrant Visas (SIVs) to Afghan refugees.

- The living conditions in American military bases are much safer and more comfortable in general in comparison to crime and collapsed economy back in Afghanistan.

Implicit:
- Afghans in American military bases were relieved from the stress and fear of violence back in Afghanistan.
- Afghans suffering from trauma or mental illnesses were provided treatment.

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Escaping Afghans has two main options: Try to reach the Kabul airport, which is controlled by American forces, and seek refuge in American military bases, or try to cross the border to neighboring countries like Pakistan and Iran.
This section will be focusing on the Afghans that chose to seek American support.

Pull Factors:
- Reaching the Kabul airport is generally safer than trying to cross a border.
- American forces in Afghanistan are more stable than the local police force and are willing to help displaced Afghans resettle.

Push Factors:
- To escape violence and persecution in Afghanistan.
- Taliban rule suppresses human rights and freedom with violence.
- The rampant violence, lawlessness, and vicious nature of terrorists in Afghanistan is a major safety concern for regular Afghans not part of terrorist groups.
-  The economic status of Afghanistan is also much more unstable than other countries, some Afghans even struggle to obtain living necessities.
- Natural disasters: From 2020 to 2023, almost 200,000 floods, about 100,000 earthquakes, and nearly 500 avalanches occurred in Afghanistan, resulting in average annual damages of $54 million, Afghans will want to leave hazardous areas.

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Many displaced Afghans that reached the Kabul airport were airlifted to American military bases at Fort Bliss, Texas; Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey; Fort McCoy, Wisconsin.; Camp Atterbury, Indiana; Fort Pickett, Fort Lee. And Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia; and Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico.

This section will be focused on Joint Base Mc-Guire-Dix-Lakehurst, which is the only location still accepting overseas Afghans.

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Adei Maternity Hospital ادی زیژنتون, Butcher Street, Kabul, Afghanistan

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Before and after of Kabul maternity ward attacks

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Specific Example: May 20th Kabul Attacks

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Specific Example: May 20th Kabul Attacks

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On May 20th of 2020, a hospital and a funeral in Kabul were attacked. Resulting in 56 deaths and 146 casualties. Among these were mourners, mothers, babies, and hospital workers. Many suspect that this attack was conducted by the Taliban, but there is no definite evidence that proves this.

These attacks show how inhumane and vicious the terrorists in Kabul are, killing even babies and mourners. It also highlights the unstable state of Afghanistan. Even the capital city of Afghanistan, Kabul, can be subject to such severe terrorist attacks, imagine what happens in areas with less security. This attack reflects how dangerous living in Afghanistan can be, and what is driving all the Afghans away from their home country.

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Origin: Settlement Activities and Impacts

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Origin: Settlement Activities and Impacts

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Settlement Activities:
- The Taliban: Taken away women’s rights to education, employment, and freedom to leave their house without a male. This is both a cultural and physical settlement activity because the Taliban enforced these restrictions with force, and these policies drastically impacted the economy (lack of female workers) and social structure in Afghanistan.
- Government collapse, Taliban currently ruling over three-quarters of the country. This is a cultural activity because the reign of the Taliban impacted various policies and beliefs in Afghanistan.
- The US-Taliban deal or the Doha Agreement was a peace agreement between the Taliban and the United States. The agreement excluded the Afghan government at the time and contributed to the collapse of Afghan security forces.

The US dramatically reduced the number of air raids against the Taliban, leaving the Afghan National Security Forces at a significant disadvantage, which ultimately lead to the Taliban takeover of Kabul. This is a cultural settlement activity because the Doha Agreement advanced the Taliban's invasion and affected the political structure in Afghanistan.
- In 2008, the Taliban conducted a suicide car bombing in an Indian embassy in Kabul. Resulting in 58 casualties and 141 wounded victims. This is a physical and cultural settlement activity because it was done with force and invoked fear amongst Kabul citizens.

Environmental Impacts:
- Natural disasters: From 2020 to 2023, almost 200,000 floods, about 100,000 earthquakes, and nearly 500 avalanches.
- Structures destroyed by terrorist activity and natural disasters.

- Just recently in Badakhshan, a 6.5 magnitude earthquake happened. Causing 10 deaths, 80 injuries, and more than 665 houses destroyed.

Cultural Impacts:
- After the Taliban takeover of Kabul, terrorist attack rates in Afghanistan increased by 42%, this is a political impact because the attacks are mostly motivated by the conflict within groups in Afghanistan, and the Taliban takeover escalated the situation.
- The large waves of people leaving Afghanistan impact the country demographically because the decreasing population can create issues like a lack of workforce, brain drain, and unsustainable population growth.
- The Taliban's enforcement of strict Islamic laws impacts Afghanistan culturally, demographically, and economically. Since women are not allowed to work, receive an education, or go outside on their own, many families choose to kill female infants at birth and only keep males. Imbalancing the male: female ratio and impacting the country's demographic.
The removal of female workers and students also economically impacts schools and workplaces. Though the primary workforce in Afghanistan was men, the sudden and complete removal of female workers and students impacted the economy drastically. The decrease of educated females also culturally impacted Afghanistan, slowly transforming the society into a patriarchy.

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Explicit Costs:
- Loss of property in Afghanistan. Most refugees cannot afford to bring all their belongings.
- Risk of danger and persecution from the Taliban
- Escape might not be successful, especially in Taliban-controlled regions where free speech is surpassed (UISP), and organizing a group escape is near impossible.
- Financial cost of moving for people who did not receive help, for transportation, rations, safety equipment, and temporary shelters.

Implicit Costs:
- Potential separation of family and friends.
- Uncertainty and fear of leaving home country and adapting to a new environment.
- Language barriers that can lead to explicit costs like unemployment.
- Being discriminated against in the new country because of refugee status. Though refugees contribute to the economy in their new country in the larger picture, most locals will think that refugees unjustly compete with them for work and resources. Some locals might treat refugees as outsiders, which leads to the polarization of refugees and an escalation of the financial crisis for refugees.

- Different religious beliefs and values in a new environment, may be harder to uphold religion.
- Time, traveling across the border or seeking help in Kabul will take time to travel.

Explicit Benefits:
- Better financial status: “Most returnees are worse off financially” because the economy is collapsing for people in Afghanistan. The economic environment much better in Pakistan and most other countries refugees can migrate to. Living conditions will also improve along with financial status since the economy is more stable.
- Safer environment to live in, away from terrorists, lawlessness, and frequent natural disasters in Afghanistan.
- More opportunities in the new country since it is hard to make a living under the harsh financial and political situation in Afghanistan.

Implicit Benefits:
- Eased from fear of danger in Afghanistan.
- Hope of starting a new and better life in the country immigrating to.

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Afghans had two choices: To flee the country under dangerous circumstances, risking safety for the chance of freedom, or stay and live in oppression under the Taliban's rule.

Pull Factors:
- Afghans would want to stay in their home country because they are far more familiar with Afghanistan than neighboring countries. Especially since the years of poverty left the majority of Afghans clueless about the outside world.
- Trying to reach the Kabul airport or cross a border is taking an extremely large risk. Both risk persecution and violence in unknown territories.

Push Factors:
- Taliban rule suppresses human rights and freedom with violence.
- The rampant violence, lawlessness, and vicious nature of terrorists in Afghanistan is a major safety concern for regular Afghans not part of terrorist groups.
-  According to the World Bank and UNHCR, “most returnees are worse off financially than those who had stayed behind in Pakistan.” Returnees face significantly higher unemployment and a larger risk of becoming in debt or losing their hard-earned job. The economic status of Afghanistan is also much more unstable than other countries, some Afghans even struggle to obtain living necessities.
- Natural disasters: From 2020 to 2023, almost 200,000 floods, about 100,000 earthquakes, and nearly 500 avalanches occurred in Afghanistan, resulting in average annual damages of $54 million, Afghans will want to leave hazardous areas.

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The Taliban, a terrorist group infamous for extrajudicial executions, unlawful captivity, and inhumane torture, invaded Kabul and took over Afghanistan on August 15th, 2021.

The government collapsed, the economy was now basically nonexistent for the majority of Afghans, the Afghan National Security Forces had fallen, and the Taliban currently rules three-quarters of the country.

The 40 years of widespread poverty, natural disasters, agricultural deficits, the changeover of government authorities, COVID-19, and the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul (the capital of Afghanistan), have driven more than 6 million Afghans from their home country.