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The ability to understand, predict, forecast and monitor bushfire is fundamental to improving resilience through better planning, preparedness, risk management and response.

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the science underpinning a new national fire danger rating system and the national capability to support bushfire predictive services;

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The development of Spark was motivated by the need for a flexible and configurable bushfire prediction toolkit. The system can incorporate as many or as few elements of fire propagation as required. Spark enables the simulation of hours of fire spread at a landscape scale in a matter of minutes. The system has been developed with the capability to be customised for use in risk management, planning, fire spread research, fire response and many more applications.
https://research.csiro.au/static/spark/Spark_Brochure.pdf

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Bushfire prediction tech to bolster emergency response efforts

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Bushfire prediction tech to bolster emergency response efforts

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Australia will develop a nationally consistent bushfire modelling and prediction capability under an agreement announced today between CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, and AFAC, the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services. They will be able to use Spark Operational, opening bushfire prediction opportunities across borders and over different landscapes.  The platform combines current fire behaviour knowledge with state-of-the-art simulation science to produce predictions, statistics and visualisations of bushfire spread, as well as simulating hours of fire spread across a landscape in a matter of seconds.

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4 February 2021 News Release

The partnership involves the development of Spark Operational, a cutting-edge bushfire simulation tool based on CSIRO's 'Spark' fire prediction platform.

Fire and emergency services agencies across Australia will be able to use Spark Operational, opening bushfire prediction opportunities across borders and over different landscapes.

CSIRO's Spark platform combines current fire behaviour knowledge with state-of-the-art simulation science to produce predictions, statistics and visualisations of bushfire spread, as well as simulating hours of fire spread across a landscape in a matter of seconds.

AFAC's Fire Prediction Services Group will work with CSIRO to improve existing technology and build a national system that allows for consistent bushfire predictions to support emergency service and response teams across borders.

Phase one of the technology's implementation commenced in January 2021, with further developments ensuring it will become fully operational over the next three years.

With each phase of its implementation, Spark Operational will be grown and adapted into a tool that all agencies nationwide can tailor to specific landscapes and bushfire behaviour, enabling them to better predict - and thereby protect - local environments.

CSIRO Chief Executive Dr Larry Marshall said the innovation built on decades of expertise.

"Our solutions from science have protected Australians from the threat of bushfires for over 70 years, from roadside fire danger signs to advanced burnover protection materials," Dr Marshall said.

"But 2020 changed the game forever. So, we have changed our game too, by unleashing new science and technology to protect our firefighters and Australian communities.

"We believe this advanced system will help firefighters outthink fire, to anticipate its actions, and to get ahead of it, so they can beat it.

"Spark is a great example of combining environmental, digital and materials science and listening to Australia's front-line responders to deliver a real-world solution that works for them.

"Spark is a cutting-edge platform, based on today's breakthrough technology but built on a strong foundation of research into understanding and predicting the behaviour and spread of bushfires."

AFAC CEO Stuart Ellis said the new technology will support fire agencies to keep communities safe.

"Spark Operational will play a significant role in allowing our emergency response teams to effectively plan for and respond to fire emergencies in a variety of landscapes and climates," Mr Ellis said.

"It was identified as the best solution to use to help achieve a nationally consistent system that will take the nation to the next generation of firefighting intelligence, and ensure we are protecting as many lives and assets as possible across multiple scenarios, mitigating the dangers of bushfire."

Through a partnership with AFAC, Minderoo Foundation is supporting the development of Spark Operational as part of its Fire Shield Mission, which aims to detect and extinguish dangerous fires within an hour by 2025.

CEO of Minderoo's Flood and Fire Resilience Initiative, Adrian Turner, said the development came at a critical time.

"The Black Summer Bushfires burned with devastating impact, in extremely dry fuels and at a scale that is rarely seen, driving extreme fire behaviour, which meant that the modelling was not able to accurately predict spread," Mr Turner said.

"The experience last summer has highlighted the need for better decision support tools to help firefighters protect people and the environment.

"Fire services will be able to test this tool during this next fire season, and this pilot project is a critical step towards better supporting firefighter decisions across a full range of fuel types to inform the earlier detection of fires in the future."

The creation of a nationally consistent bushfire modelling and prediction capability was recommended by CSIRO in a report to the Commonwealth Government last year Climate and Disaster Resilience

Background information

The Phoenix RapidFire bushfire simulator, developed by the University of Melbourne, the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (together with CSIRO who supported the CRC) and the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, has been successfully applied by fire and emergency service agencies for a number of years to help understand and predict bushfire behaviour, particularly in grass and eucalypt-fuelled fires. Spark Operational plans to build on its success and will be initially used alongside Phoenix RapidFire.

For longer term hazard planning, fire services will be able to use Spark Operational to support decisions about where to conduct fuel reduction burning in order to gain the most protection for communities. It can also be combined with climate and vegetation models to estimate fire-based risks in future as a result of climate change.

In situations where a fire is an immediate risk, Spark Operational will improve the ability of emergency services to quickly assess what vulnerabilities exist on particular days across the whole landscape. Spark Operational will be integrated with the latest meteorological information, as well as land slope, vegetation and other landscape information to help inform the positioning of firefighting resources and make data driven decisions to keep communities safe. The fully operational version of Spark Operational will also assist fire agencies to generate more detailed emergency warnings to communities.

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Bushfire prediction tech to bolster emergency response efforts

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4 February 2021 News Release The partnership involves the development of Spark Operational, a cutting-edge bushfire simulation tool based on CSIRO's 'Spark' fire prediction platform. Fire and emergency services agencies across Australia will be able to use Spark Operational, opening bushfire prediction opportunities across borders and over different landscapes.

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Bushfires, heat, smoke and hail storms: A breakdown of Canberra's extreme summer

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Bushfires, heat, smoke and hail storms: A breakdown of Canberra's extreme summer

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It was a summer of extremes.

When you would usually find residents outside enjoying the many natural wonders and making the most of daylight savings, people were forced indoors to escape the heat, the smoke or the hail.

"I felt like I was robbed of summer," Canberra resident Vivien Shu said.

"You were either locked inside because it was too hot, or you couldn't go outside because it was too smoky and all the national parks were closed, it was really horrible.

"The hail storm was outrageous in itself, but having that right next to bushfires and being locked inside and not being able to breathe the air outside, it was insane.

"It was a juxtaposition between crazy and crazy."

First came the heat

Before summer officially began it was clear the ACT was in for a sweltering few months with a high bushfire risk.

"We started off with extreme heat which actually started in November and went through December and January," Clem Davis, a climate expert and former forecaster from the Australian National University said.

"Then towards the end of January, we ended up with storms and hail."

From the beginning of December Canberra experienced four heatwaves and 41 days of 30C or more; the fourth consecutive year the territory recorded more than 40 days above 30C.

It also broke records - the hottest day on record, 44C, the hottest February day on record, 42.7C and the hottest minimum temperature, 26.7C.

Smoke chokes the capital

But while Canberrans are used to dry, blistering summers, what they were not prepared for were the thick layers of smoke that rolled in as the country began to burn.

Bushfires flanked the western and southern borders of the Territory, which saw smoke envelop the region.

From the beginning of December, Canberra experienced 56 days where the smoke pollution exceeded the air quality safety standards.

There were also 12 days when the level reached the highest hazardous rating, leaving the ACT one of the worst areas for air pollution in the world.

For many, it meant summer traditions of spending days outside at the river, in the park or bushwalking were not just unreachable - they were dangerous.

"We just spent a whole lot of time indoors which is unusual, usually Canberrans get out, we do picnics at the lake or find new parks," Rhonda Wadey, who was in the final weeks of her second pregnancy when the smoke arrived, said.

"It made life a little bit more challenging to have a two year old who just wants to be outside and running around, I had to try and keep him entertained indoors.

"I know a lot of people were in the same boat."

Ms Wadey and her husband did everything they could to make the unusual seem normal for their older son, Nathaniel, and the smoke has had what she hopes is only a temporary impact.

"I'm very thankful that he's small enough to never remember this summer, and that as he grows up, unlike the fires that we still remember, he won't be able to look back on the season that we've had," Ms Wadey said.

"But [also] that this beautiful bright two year old who just wants to go outside and play wants to check with me before he does that it's not too smoky outside. It's sort of heartbreaking."

Damage from an unexpected source

While the smoke was a constant reminder for Canberrans of the threats of nearby fires, it was a completely different weather system that ultimately did the most damage to the city.

Hail as big as golf balls and winds of up to 117 kilometres per hour tore through Canberra on January 20, in a storm that had residents running for cover.

Ms Shu was one of thousands of Canberrans whose car was damaged - and in her case written off - in the hail storm.

"I was almost tricked to believe that it was fine," she said.

"Then I saw the windscreen was cracked and there wasn't one panel on the car that was ok."

The Insurance Council of Australia said the storm, which passed through Victoria and New South Wales as well, caused about $805 million in damage, mostly in Canberra.

Of the 87,500 insurance claims made afterwards, 60,000 were from Canberra and of those, 37,500 were claims related to motor vehicles, most of which were cars.

In a city where car traffic accounts for 80 per cent of all road use, the hail was more than a minor disruption.

"I was pretty screwed," Ms Shu said.

"I live in O'Connor and work in Tuggeranong and it's my only form of travel. I could catch the bus but it's double the travel time and it was just going to be a really big inconvenience in my life.

"I couldn't go to the gym or to dinners unless I organised a lift with a friend and if they were available.

"Even when I asked how long until I could get a rental car, they couldn't tell me. They were like, 'do it week by week and see what happens', but I couldn't afford that. It was really frustrating."

Bushfire threat realised

People were still cleaning up and repairing the damage from the hail when, a week later, the situation authorities had feared most became reality: fire.

On January 27, a bushfire began and rapidly spread deep into the heart of Namadgi National Park.

The Orroral Valley fire, which came within kilometres of the southern town of Tharwa, incinerated more than 80,000 hectares of bush, or around a quarter of the ACT.

For 35 days Canberra was placed under a State of Alert and for three days a State of Emergency - the first time since the 2003 firestorm.

The fire was officially declared out on Thursday thanks, in part, to one last landscape-changing weather event for the summer ... this time, a welcome one.

"The rainfall to 9am on the 10th of February was the highest rainfall we've had in two years," Mr Davis said.

"We had 60mm, that's just another of those extremes."

Early forecasts are predicting more rain for southern Australia during Autumn, but beyond that is still unclear - and after the summer that just was, Canberrans are bracing for more of the same.

"It actually just makes me really sad that this is the reality that we're living in," Ms Shu said.

"That I have to think about whether I need to buy big air purifiers for the summer and whether I'm going to be able to go outside."

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Canberra's summer 'a juxtaposition between crazy and crazy'

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It was a summer of extremes. When you would usually find residents outside enjoying the many natural wonders and making the most of daylight savings, people were forced indoors to escape the heat, the smoke or the hail. "I felt like I was robbed of summer," Canberra resident Vivien Shu said.

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Bushfire Safety - Issues in Society - p.41
https://daranet.daramalan.act.edu.au/send.php?id=32867

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Bushfire Safety - Issues in Society, 2017, p. 5 https://daranet.daramalan.act.edu.au/send.php?id=32867

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Loss of biodiversity, wildlife and livestock

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Loss of biodiversity, wildlife and livestock

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In January 2020, figures were released which estimated that approximately 1.25 billion animals were killed as a result of the bushfires. The animals affected by the bushfires included wildlife, domesticated animals and livestock. By late July 2020, this figure had been revised to approximately three billion native vertebrates.

This estimate accounts for 143 million mammals, 2.46 billion reptiles, 180 million birds and 51 million frogs.  The rates of biodiversity loss and wildlife killed during the fires vary between the states and territories. For example, in Victoria, '170 species were affected, including 19 mammal species, 13 frog species, ten reptile species, nine bird species, 29 aquatic species and 38 plant species'.  In NSW, it is estimated that over 800 million animals were killed, and that the habitats of at least 293 threatened animals were affected by the bushfires

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Finance_and_Public_Administration/Bushfirerecovery/Interim_Report/section?id=committees%2freportsen%2f024518%2f73733

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A significant proportion of the land and ecosystems affected by the 2019-20 bushfires had not previously been impacted by fire. Further, the bushfires burned several of Australia's World Heritage areas. For example:

in Tasmania, approximately 20 000 hectares of wilderness classified as World Heritage area was burned.

In January 2020, figures were released which estimated that approximately 1.25 billion animals were killed as a result of the bushfires. The animals affected by the bushfires included wildlife, domesticated animals and livestock. By late July 2020, this figure had been revised to approximately three billion native vertebrates.

Because of the number of days of Very High fire danger and above leading to extreme fire behaviour on multiple days, there are few unburned patches left in many areas to provide refuge for wildlife. Many of the few animals that survived the most severe fires have likely since succumbed to starvation, injuries and predation by feral animals.

... from a veterinary perspective, mitigation is much more important because adaptation mainly centres around the needs of humans and to a certain extent domestic animals, but does little to reduce risks for wildlife.

Availability and accessibility of biodiversity and wildlife data

the lengthy time for flow‑on effects to be fully realised; and

Further, a recent report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that the monitoring of status and trends of ecosystems and species in Australia was 'patchy, time‑limited and generally inadequate'. The OECD also drew attention to the fact that a number of strategies and monitoring efforts in Australia had ceased, and called for national approach to biodiversity monitoring. For example:

A commitment in the 2010 Commonwealth-State National Biodiversity Conservation Strategy, to develop a national biodiversity monitoring and reporting system has largely been abandoned. Previous monitoring efforts such as the River Health Program and the Wetlands Inventory have also been discontinued... Significant additional effort, including funding, is needed to progress towards a national, comprehensive biodiversity monitoring and reporting system that can inform Commonwealth, state and territorial policy decisions and priority setting.

... for many of the individual species it's about estimating the population size and understanding what direction the trends are heading in. In many cases we need to be able to measure rates of reproduction and also rates of survival. That can be very challenging. In some species it's done reasonably practically. It can be expensive, although technology is helping to reduce those costs. But, fundamentally, we need to know how many individuals there are, where they are, and what the trends are, both before these events and the time after them, so that we can monitor recovery. As well as passively understanding what the trends are, we also need to understand the impact of the management actions that are being implemented and how effective they are so that we can adjust those as need be.

... it's clear that fires are becoming more severe with climate change and previously resilient ecosystems, like those on Kangaroo Island, are being pushed beyond their limits by the frequency with which fires are now hitting.

... If you have animal populations that are decimated by fire impacts, it may take them a decade or two to come back to some sort of normality. They won't return to their pristine state... The fires in the upper Cotter, which I'm dealing with now, burnt in 2003, and they burnt again this year. The impacts from those fires are much more severe this year. I'm not sure whether that's because the fire was a lot worse or the environment was a lot more fragile because of the previous fire. They are the sorts of questions that we have to tease out.

Recovery and rehabilitation

The volunteer wildlife care community in Australia is one of the most dedicated and under-acknowledged areas of community service. Their role in caring for and rehabilitating wildlife is an invaluable one. However, numbers of animals coming into their care post the Bushfires were minimal due to the lack of search and rescue operations in the days, weeks and months post the fires.

... limited ability to locate and provide care and rehabilitation for injured wildlife. There was little to no support for wildlife carers to locate and rescue injured animals to deal with their treatment and rehabilitation ... At present all of these measures are left to wildlife care volunteers and some research institutions who mainly pay the costs of such care out of their own pockets or rely on donations and the generosity of veterinary staff willing to give their expertise free of charge.

... sectors such as wildlife rehabilitation, which are largely volunteer based and have been running on the smell of an oily rag for decades, are being pushed to their absolute limit in the need to respond to the suffering that these natural disasters cause to our fauna.

The impact of logging on post-fire recovery

The Australian Academy of Science (AAS) submitted that 'many decisions soon after major disasters are made in a crisis management mode', and therefore may not be 'good, evidence-based decisions'. The AAS pointed to post‑fire logging as an example of this, saying that 'the rapid decision to conduct post‑fire (salvage) logging in protected areas' could:

... have long-lasting negative impacts on ecosystem integrity and on biodiversity, including on species listed under the EPBC [Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation] Act. A better model is for governments to plan for environmental decisions after natural disasters well before events take place. This is critical in the context of the EPBC Act, as some species and ecosystems can shift from low risk to high risk very quickly following large-scale natural disasters.

It was recently reported that '[g]overnment logging has resumed in fire‑damaged forests in NSW' and in East Gippsland. In her submission, Ms Lesley Hodges discussed the impact of post-fire logging by state governments on wildlife, stating that:

... [m]ultiple independent, peer reviewed studies show logging forests after bushfires increases future fire risk and can render the forest uninhabitable for wildlife for decades or even centuries.

... the science on the impacts of post-fire logging is clear: it can significantly impair the recovery of burned ecosystems, badly affect wildlife and, for some animal species, prevent recovery.

Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel

In response to the devastation on the environment during the 2019-20 bushfires, the Threatened Species Commissioner, Dr Sally Box, was tasked by the Minister for the Environment, the Hon Sussan Ley MP, with chairing the Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel (Expert Panel). The Expert panel was to advise the Minister of the immediate and longer‑term actions required for species protection.

NSW Bushfire inquiry

That Government develop and implement a policy on injured wildlife response, rescue and rehabilitation including:

a) a framework for the co-ordination and interaction with emergency management structures

b) guidelines for Incident Management Plans to include wildlife rescue and rehabilitation as a consideration

c) a requirement for all vets and wildlife rescue volunteers to obtain the Bush Fire Awareness accreditation

d) guidance for firefighters on handling injured wildlife

That, in order to improve support for people evacuating with animals, the Department of Primary Industries:

a) work with Resilience NSW to develop evacuation protocols and procedures to ensure appropriate supports are provided for both people and animals (informed by the findings from Project Ohana ), including a process for animal registration at evacuation centres and mutually agreed naming conventions, and provide this information to Local Emergency Management Committees (LEMCs)

b) work with LEMCs to identify overflow sites that can be used for evacuated animals when preferred sites are full

c) further develop the domestic pets evacuation protocol.

The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet highlighted two core programs that receive funding under the NBRF: the Bushfire Immediate Wildlife Rescue and Recovery Program, and new funding for Bushfire Recovery for Native Wildlife and Habitations. For the 2020-21 financial year, the Commonwealth Government has committed $25.1 million and $76.5 million for these programs respectively.

The Commonwealth Government's core statutory obligations regarding the environment and wildlife can be found in the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Act 1999 (EPBC Act). The objectives of the EPBC Act are to:

The Department of the Environment ... through the EPBC Act, could play a stronger role in declaring land clearing as a key threatening process to biological diversity viability. All sectors, government and non‑government, involved in preparing for and responding to bushfires need to be fully briefed on the importance of biodiversity on our nation's physical, social and economic viability.

[s]tate government legislation often cause confusion by referring to the same vegetation communities by different names and it is even possible for different penalties to be imposed for the same infringement under each State and Commonwealth Act. Governments need to develop a clear framework for implementation and hierarchy of legislation to guide fuel management and firefighting activities.

Independent statutory review

... governments often must resort to negotiating case-by-case data licensing and sharing, rather than having data-sharing agreements and systems that can talk with each other. The collation of information on the impacts of the 2019/20 bushfires on the environment is an example of this.

The Act is limited in its ability to strategically conserve biodiversity, manage key threats or quickly respond to emerging threats such as bushfires, biosecurity incursions or other natural disasters.

... funding is often scattergun, unreliable and short-term and funding cycles do not support an enduring, focused or prioritised approach. The EPBC Act does not refer to climate change or explicitly require consideration of future pressures. There is no avenue for an emergency listing of newly threatened species in response to natural disasters such as the 2019/20 bushfires.

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A significant proportion of the land and ecosystems affected by the 2019-20 bushfires had not previously been impacted by fire. Further, the bushfires burned several of Australia's World Heritage areas. For example: in Tasmania, approximately 20 000 hectares of wilderness classified as World Heritage area was burned.

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Summer bushfires: how are the plant and animal survivors 6 months on? 

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Summer bushfires: how are the plant and animal survivors 6 months on? 

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After the bushfires: Addressing the health impacts 2020, Australian Academy of Health & Medical Sciences.

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Australia’s devastating bushfires exemplify the growing number of climate-related natural disasters taking place around the world.

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Australia’s devastating bushfires exemplify the growing number of climate-related natural disasters taking place around the world.

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Center for Strategic & International Studies

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New Normal? Climate Change and the Australian Bushfires

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AFTER THE BUSHFIRES:ADDRESSING THE HEALTH IMPACTS

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AFTER THE BUSHFIRES:ADDRESSING THE HEALTH IMPACTS

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• Bushfires have adverse effects on people’s physical and mental health.
• Individuals are affected by direct exposure to the flames, exposure to extreme heat, prolonged smoke inhalation, contamination of waterways and food, and through trauma from the fires themselves.
• The prolonged and widespread nature of the 2019–20 bushfires resulted in more people being affected by bushfire-related health issues than previous events.
• Clearer and more consistent public health advice on how individuals and communities identify, manage and treat health impacts is needed, including targeted information and plans for vulnerable population groups.
• Knowledge gaps need to be addressed if we are to better manage future impacts on human health, particularly in the context of climate change.
• The scale and intensity of the 2019–20 fire season presents an opportunity to address these knowledge gaps.
https://aahms.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/after-bushfires-addressing-health-impacts.pdf

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At least a billion animals killed in bushfires

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At least a billion animals killed in bushfires

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Australia has lost devastating numbers of wildlife in the bushfire crisis this season, with current estimates of at least a billion birds, mammals and reptiles decimated. Then there's all the insects, bats, fish and frogs lost that haven't been counted in that figure. The loss of so many animals will affect how our forests and ecosystems regrow.

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At least a billion animals killed in bushfires

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Unprecedented bushfires in the black summer of 2019-2020 probably caused at least 400 excess deaths and thousands of hospital admissions heart and lung disease.

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Health impacts of the Australian bushfires

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Health impacts of the Australian bushfires

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Exposure to bushfire smoke can cause respiratory complications, including breathing difficulties and coughing, due to the complex mixture of molecules in smoke.   These fine particles, can potentially pose a serious risk, especially for individuals with pre-existing conditions such as heart, lung diseases, asthma and diabetes, and those in vulnerable population groups such as the elderly, children and pregnant women.

https://aahms.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/The-Australian-Bushfires-and-the-impact-on-health_evidence-doc.pdf