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                                     Prediction on winner of the Texas Senate race

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                                     Prediction on winner of the Texas Senate race

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Republican candidate Ted Cruz will win the Texas Senate Race. Ted Cruz has more experience in the political sector, working closely with important politicians, such as Greg Abbott, who has a high satisfactory percentage, and is an incumbent. People can see that Cruz has more experience in politics, in comparison to Beto O’Rourke. Furthermore, people can attest that because Greg Abbott,someone they approve highly of, had appointed Ted Cruz, Cruz must be a good candidate. In addition, 57% of the population of Texas are white, the majority which voted for Trump, due to the many rural areas that have strong white Republican voters. On the other hand, one may claim that because 53% of the population are women, who in the last election primarily voted for Clinton, Beto will win. However, Beto’s policies differ greatly from the values of the majority of Texan voters; Beto’s ideology is very liberal and opposes the conservative ideology that reigns supreme over the entirety of Texas.

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Must be a U.S. citizen

A resident of the Texas county in which application for registration is made.

At least 18 years old on Election Day;

Not finally convicted of a felony, or, if so convicted must have (1) fully discharged the sentence, including any term of incarceration, parole, or supervision, or completed a period of probation ordered by any court; or (2) been pardoned or otherwise released from the resulting disability to vote.

Not determined by a final judgment of a court exercising probate jurisdiction to be (1) totally mentally incapacitated; or (2) partially mentally incapacitated without the right to vote.

Photo ID required

Early voting: Oct. 22 - Nov. 2

Mailing is available

No same-day or online registration

Deadline: November 6, Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 7

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53% were women of which the majority voted for Clinton, but the majority of the 47% of men voted for Trump. 53% of the voters were 45 and older and primarily voted for Trump, 57% were white (T), 51% were college graduates (T), and 70% earned $50k or more (T).

(T)=majority voted for Trump

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                                       Races in Texas

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                                       Races in Texas

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                                Three Major Issues: Guns, Immigration, Health care

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                                Three Major Issues: Guns, Immigration, Health care

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Beto O'Rourke-

Guns: He wants to require background checks for all gun sales, end the sale of weapons of war and high-capacity magazines, support federal research on guns.

Immigration: He wants to end the militarization of the immigration enforcement system and close immigration prisons and detention centers, pass the DREAM act, refugees are guaranteed due process under the law, legalize millions of immigrants already in the country, modernize the VISA system to outsource jobs that Americans cannot fill.

Health care: He wants to improve the affordable care act, expand medicaid, protect the medicaid guarantee for vulnerable children and the disabled and elderly, lowering premiums and prescription drug costs,and achieve universal healthcare coverage.

His stances are in line with his party.

Ted Cruz-

Guns: Desires less gun control and less enforcement of regulations.

Immigration: Stop Obama’s Amnesty, secure the border, and implement a system that celebrates legal immigration

Healthcare: Repeal Obamacare, and implement market-based reforms to make healthcare personal, portable, and affordable.

His stances are in line with his party.

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                           Endorsements 

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                           Endorsements 

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Beto endorsements-  Texas’ two largest newspapers: Houston Chronicle and The Dallas Morning News; celebrities like Lebron James, Chelsea Handler, Connie Britton, Travis Scott
Endorsements from stars and famous newspapers will enable Beto to receive more support from voters who look favorably upon those celebrities and sources.

Ted Cruz- Campaign for working families, National Right to Life Committee, American Bakers Association, American Library Association, the Club for Growth, National Federation of Independent Businesses
Support from these organizations, especially those that promote policies that are favored by Republicans will boost Cruz's credibility.

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In the 2016 presidential election, the state of Texas voted for President Trump.

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                                                   Interest groups (many are out of state!)

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                                                   Interest groups (many are out of state!)

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Beto- Universities: University of Texas- $365,612,  University of California- $131,404, Baylor College of Medicine- $103,268, Rice University- $73,022, Texas A&M- $67,053, Stanford University-$66,668

Major companies- Apple inc., Facebook inc, Microsoft corp, Amazon.com , Dell technology, Exxonmobil

Cruz- Universities - none

Major companies - Wakeforest financial group, Southwest airlines, Delta airlines, NRA

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                   Races in Iowa 3rd C. District

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                   Races in Iowa 3rd C. District

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42% are White, 39.4% are Hispanics, 12.7% are Black, 5% are Asian

50.3% are Female

12.3% are 65 and older, 26% are 18 and younger

83% are high school graduates or higher, 28.1% have bachelor’s degree or higher

Median household income: $54,727

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                           Interest Groups (many are out of state!)

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                           Interest Groups (many are out of state!)

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David Young was supported by groups like the National Rifle Association and the Republican Main Street partnership. Some other interests groups are Wells Fargo, Nation Wide, Blue Cross/Blue Shield and Honeywell International.

Cindy Axne's interest groups are Stanford University, University of California, University of Iowa and Alphabetic inc.

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                                 Public Opinion Polls

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                                 Public Opinion Polls

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Shows that this is a very tight race as Beto is slowly getting more supporters.

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                                  Public Opinion Polls

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                                  Public Opinion Polls

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This is a turnover race with such close percentages of supporters between Axne and Young.

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Ted Cruz was a law clerk to U.S. Chief Justice William Rehnquist, an Associate Deputy Attorney General for the U.S. Department of Justice, the director of the Office of Policy Planning for the Federal Trade Commission, and Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 to 2008, under Greg Abbott.~career politician.

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Beto O’Rourke has worked for a Manhattan web technology company and co-founded Stanton Street Technology, was elected to serve on the El Paso City Council from 2005 to 2011, was elected to represent Texas' 16th Congressional District in 2012. He has served on the Veterans’ Affair Committee, Homeland Security Committee, and Armed Service Committee.

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For Beto O’Rourke, he didn’t receive as much votes as expected (though he did win) because he didn't have a Hispanic last name which in Texas is a big part of democratic votes for people in certain parts of Texas,especially areas around the border of Mexico. Beto raised a lot of money through his campaigns in order to be able to compete with incumbent Ted Cruz.

Ted Cruz didn't run into many problems during his run in the primary race since he is an incumbent and people are more familiar with him and have supported his past policies and actions.

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Beto O’Rourke: Democrat
Ted Cruz: Republican

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                                                                                                                                      Texas Senate Election

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                                                                                                                                      Texas Senate Election

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IOWA 3RD CONGRESSIONAL RACE:

Sources from a local newspaper

Barczewski, Laura. “Iowa's Third Congressional District Candidates Engage in Their First Debate.” Whotv.com, 8 Oct. 2018, whotv.com/2018/10/07/iowas-third-congressional-district-candidates-engage-in-their-first-debate/.

"Iowa Election 2018: Where The Candidates Stand On The Issues". Features.Desmoinesregister.Com, 2018, http://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/2018-elections/iowa-election-2018-governor-3rd-congressional-district-kim-reynolds-fred-hubbell-jake-porter-david-young-cindy-axne-bryan-holder.php. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

Petroski, William. “GOP Rep. David Young, Democrat Cindy Axne Skirmish over Health Care, Taxes.” Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 12 Oct. 2018, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/11/iowa-election-young-axne-skirmish-3rd-district-debate-house-republican-democrat-election-health-care/1600513002/.

Public opinion polls

Andre, Michael. “Midterm Election Poll: Iowa's 3rd District, Young vs. Axne.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 27 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ia03-1.html.

"DCCC POLLING MEMO: AXNE CONTINUES TO LEAD IN IA-03 ELECTION - DCCC". DCCC, 2018, https://dccc.org/640854-2/. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

"Emerson E-Poll: Dead Heat In Iowa Governor Race, Democrats Look To Pick Up Congressional Seat | Emerson College". Emerson College, 2018, https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-e-poll-dead-heat-iowa-governor-race-democrats-look-pick-congressional-seat#.W9MnzmhKjIX. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

Academic articles on the Midterms

“Iowa's 3rd Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, 2018, ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

Sostaric, Katarina. “Congressional Candidates In Iowa's Competitive Third District Talk Trade At State Fair.” Iowa Public Radio, 16 Aug. 2018, www.iowapublicradio.org/post/congressional-candidates-iowas-competitive-third-district-talk-trade-state-fair#stream/0.

Swenson, Kyle et al. "House Candidates Campaign On Their Agendas, But Voters Vote On Trump". Washington Post, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-candidates-campaign-on-their-agendas-but-voters-vote-on-trump/2018/10/20/2a96739a-d3af-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html?noredirect=on. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Candidates websites

“Cindy Axne for U.S. Congress.” Cindy Axne for Congress, 2017, cindyaxneforcongress.com/.

David Young U.S. Congress, Young for Iowa, Inc, www.davidyoungforiowa.com/#about.

Party websites

“Home -.” Home -, Republican Party of Iowa, www.iowagop.org/.

“Home.” Iowa, Iowa Democratic Party, iowademocrats.org/.

Secretary of State website for the state

Iowa Secretary of State: Paul D. Pate. (2018). [online] Available at: https://sos.iowa.gov/. Accessed 25 Oct 2018.

Campaign spending

"Campaign Finance Data - FEC.Gov". FEC.Gov, 2018, https://www.fec.gov/data/. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

Politics, The. "Data On Campaign Finance, Super Pacs, Industries, And Lobbying". Opensecrets, 2018, https://www.opensecrets.org/. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

Other

"2016 Election Results: Iowa Exit Polls". Cnn.Com, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/president. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Center for New Media & Promotion (CNMP), US Census Bureau. "My Congressional District". Census.Gov, 2018, https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=19&cd=03. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

"Iowa Election 2018: Where The Candidates Stand On The Issues". Features.Desmoinesregister.Com, 2018, http://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/2018-elections/iowa-election-2018-governor-3rd-congressional-district-kim-reynolds-fred-hubbell-jake-porter-david-young-cindy-axne-bryan-holder.php. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

TEXAS SENATE RACE:

Sources from a local newspaper

"Democrat Beto O’Rourke Woos Rural Texans In GOP Strongholds, Ignoring Party Playbook". Houston Chronicle, 2018, https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Beto-O-Rourke-has-chance-of-beating-Ted-Cruz-13141321.php. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Ramsey, Ross. "Latest Texas Beto Vs. Cruz Poll Puts Republican Up By 6 In U.S. Senate Race". Elpasotimes.Com, 2018, https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2018/10/26/ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-6-texas-senate-race-ut-tt-poll-finds/1776894002/?from=new-cookie. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"Where Ted Cruz And Beto O'rourke Stand In The Debate Over Gun Control | 2018 Elections | Dallas News". Dallasnews.Com, 2018, https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/03/09/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-stand-debate-gun-control. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Public opinion polls

"Midterm Election Poll: Texas Senate, Cruz Vs. O’Rourke". Nytimes.Com, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Poll.Qu.Edu, 2018, https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/tx/tx10292018_tjfp53.pdf/. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Tribune, The, and Ross Ramsey. "Ted Cruz Leads Beto O’Rourke By 6 In Texas Senate Race, UT/TT Poll Finds". The Texas Tribune, 2018, https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/26/ut-tt-poll-ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-texas-senate/. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Academic articles on the Midterms

"The Voter's Self Defense System". Vote Smart, 2018, https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/135705/ted-cruz#.W9psMWhKjIU. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

"United States Senate Election In Texas, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Ballotpedia, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Weissert, Will. "Both Sides Ignoring Swing Voters In Hot Texas Senate Race". The Washington Post, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/both-sides-ignoring-swing-voters-in-hot-texas-senate-race/2018/10/22/b771c028-d65a-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html?noredirect=on. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Candidates websites

"Beto For Texas". Beto For Senate, 2018, https://betofortexas.com/. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

"Home - Ted Cruz For Senate". Ted Cruz For Senate, 2018, https://www.tedcruz.org/home/. Accessed 2 Nov 2018.

Party websites

"Home - Republican Party Of Texas". Republican Party Of Texas, 2018, https://www.texasgop.org/. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"Texas Democratic Party". Texas Democratic Party, 2018, https://www.txdemocrats.org/. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

Secretary of State website for the state

"Texas Secretary Of State". Sos.State.Tx.Us, 2018, https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.html. Accessed 30 Oct 2018.

Campaign spending

Politics, The. "Texas Senate Race". Opensecrets, 2018, https://www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2018&id=TXS2&spec=N. Accessed 1 Nov 2018.

Other

"2016 Election Results: Texas Exit Polls". Cnn.Com, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/texas/president. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"Beto O'rourke - Ballotpedia". Ballotpedia, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Beto_O%27Rourke. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"Ted Cruz - Ballotpedia". Ballotpedia, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Ted_Cruz. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"Texas Senate Primary Election Results". Nytimes.Com, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-senate-primary-election. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"Texas Voting". Sos.State.Tx.Us, 2018, https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/pamphlets/largepamp.shtml. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump". Fivethirtyeight, 2018, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/ted-cruz/. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

"U.S. Census Bureau Quickfacts: Texas". Census Bureau Quickfacts, 2018, https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/tx. Accessed 3 Nov 2018.

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                                                             Prediction of who will win 

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                                                             Prediction of who will win 

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Cindy Axne will win the election, beating David Young only by a couple of votes. Only around 33% of the population have a bachelor’s degree or higher, meaning that a significant percentage have a lower educational level, which is typically linked with Democrats. In addition, more than half of the population of the district are women. Women typically are more socially progressive and support Democrats. Although about 90% of the population is white, which would insinuate that David Young would win, it is important to note that the 10% of minorities, the large percentage of people that have some college to no college education, and the large proportion of women will steer the votes to favoring Axne.  Furthermore, the capital, and major urban city, Des Moines, is included in this district (urban areas tend to have democratic majority).

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                                                             Three Major Issues: Health care, tax cuts, trade

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                                                             Three Major Issues: Health care, tax cuts, trade

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David Young:

Health care needs to be reformed, especially the cost, which can be fixed by price transparency, increasing competition in the insurance market, and reducing and giving regulatory flexibility to providers. Those with pre-existing conditions should be protected. Did not support the Affordable Care Act.

Favors tax cuts because it is creating jobs, increasing wages, and bringing investment

NAFTA and all other trade agreements should be modernized to and enforced ensure free and fair trade. So far, Iowa has benefited from NAFTA. Appreciates’ Trump's actions regarding international trade deals, BUT concerned about agricultural tariffs.

MOSTLY in line with his party platform ( different stance on tariffs)

Cindy Axne:

Health care should be reformed so that everyone has affordable, quality care; people should be allowed to buy it; not by a group policy in a company. Supported the Affordable Care Act.

Does not support tax cuts because hurts the middle class, small businesses,& seniors and increases the deficit of the nation to $1.5 trillion

NAFTA should be renegotiated so that trading partners operate with higher labor standards, allowing Iowa manufacturers to compete at a fair level in the market (small businesses can be helped). Trump’s actions regarding international trade deals have led to a trade war and are harmful to Iowa and the rest of the nation.

In line with her party platform

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                              Endorsements

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                              Endorsements

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Obama has endorsed Axne. She is also receiving endorsements from many corporations such as Planned Parenthood, Iowa Federation of Labor,  Local 199, as well as Patriotic Millionaires

This matters to Cindy Axne because Obama was a past president and one that was highly supported by Democrats. Support from important institutions that advocate for issues that Democrats favor also brings Axne greater credibility.

David Young was endorsed by Mike Pence and Trump as well as the American Farm Bureau federation, American Bakers Association,  the Associated Builders and Contractors, National Federation of Independent business amongst many others over the year.
Having the endorsements of the standing president as well as the vice president gives you an advantage because Republicans you feel secure about your choice.

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The District voted for President Trump in the 2016 election.

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                                                                                                                       The Iowa 3rd Congressional District Election

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                                                                                                                       The Iowa 3rd Congressional District Election

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Deadline: November 6th, The Absentee voting is also due Nov. 6th

Early voting Oct. 8th - Nov. 6th

You can register online as well as same day registration. (Mailing accepted)

A voter ID is required.

Must be a U.S. citizen

Not be a convicted felon (unless your voting rights have been restored), be judged mentally incompetent to vote by a court.

Cannot claim the right to vote in any other place.

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         Demographics of Iowa         Congressional District 3

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         Demographics of Iowa         Congressional District 3

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More than 50% are white

More than 50% are females

Greater than 50% earn $50,000 and up

91.6% are high school graduates or have a higher educational level

32.9% have a Bachelor's degree or higher

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Cindy Axne, a small business owner defeated the political organizer Pete D’Alessandro and a teacher, Eddie Mauro in the Democratic Primary. David Young ran unopposed for the Republican Primary. This race has been labeled as a 2018 battleground race between the incumbent Republican David Young and Democrat Cindy Axne, who leads in the polls. It’s a battleground race because the outcome may change partisan control in the 116th Congress.

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Voter turnout in the last                   election

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Voter turnout in the last                   election

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Based on the state 2016 exit polls: a little bit more women than men voted, people aged 45 and up voted more than those 44 and younger, 90% of voters were white, 57% of voters had some college education or less, 64% earn $50k and up, 58% are protestant & 20% are Catholic (SIDED W/REP)

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Cindy Axne-Democrat
David Young-Republican

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Before running for Congress, Cindy Axne worked as a political activist. This is her first time running for office. She is also a small business owner. She is more ideological with her stances.

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David young serves or has served on the Appropriations Committee under Agriculture; Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development; and Financial Services subcommittees currently in the House of Representatives. He also served as Chief of Staff to Senator Chuck Grassley for eight years.  He is more ideological with his stances.