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Please use these resources to research Water in Southwest Colorado!

Things in green are required. Orange things are interactive, and may not be very straightforward, but can be rewarding when you click around.

Pads in green are to be read before Tuesday.

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Colorado Snow Survey's Karl Wetlaufer

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Colorado Snow Survey's Karl Wetlaufer on Snow Measurements

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SNOTEL Watershed High/Low Snowpack Summary Graph

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SNOTEL Watershed High/Low Snowpack Summary Graph

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This is what the snowpack is looking like this year, in comparison to other years

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Four seasons: Colorado water in a changing climate

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Four seasons: Colorado water in a changing climate

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Colorado Independent - I have posted a video version of this below.

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Editor's Note: Over the next year, The Colorado Independent will examine, season by season, the effects climate change is having on the state's water supply and the many forms of life it sustains.
Every time Stella Molotch finishes a run down the ski slope at Steamboat, her dad Noah slips two Skittles into her tiny hands. It's a reward - yet another step forward as the six year old is learning to ski.

People across the Rocky Mountain ranges long have quipped that kids here often learn to ski before they know how to walk. But these days, this powder-based parenting style is increasingly born out of necessity rather than impatience.

As winters are warming and mountain regions bear the brunt of the immediate consequences, the mantra may as well be: We better teach them now, while there's still snow to ski . Or, to put it another way: Noah Molotch and parents like him might have to buy far fewer Skittles in the not-so-distant future.

A growing body of research suggests that the changing climate and subsequently warmer winters will drastically shrink the snowpack in mountain states such as Colorado . Already, across the American West, the amount of snow per year over roughly the last 40 years has diminished by 41 percent. For now, Colorado's altitude and colder temperatures may still protect our winters, in effect, buying some time. But for a state that gets 80 percent of its annual water supply from its snowpack, the future is bleak. M aintaining life as we know it in Colorado is tied to its water supply, and that supply, on both sides of Colorado's mountains, is inextricably linked to the life and death of snow.

The intangible

When it comes to Colorado's snowpack, what cannot be measured in inches or feet is as essential as what can be. Snow is an intrinsic part of life in Colorado. The state's identity is embodied by the majesty of snow-capped Rockies on a brilliant blue day. It is connected to the pure clean hush of snowfall, which drapes mountain pines as elegantly as it does city streets.

It is snow that we rely upon for our water, yes, snow that must fall to fuel tourism and feed crops. But beyond that, deeper than that, snow has the power to transport us, to transform. It can terrify in a whiteout or destroy in an avalanche. It also can return us to childhood, to being breathless, cheeks flushed, stepping, crunch, crunch, crunch , across a canvas of pristine white like astronauts exploring a new planet. Snow is the marriage of the tangible and intangible. A snowball is not just a snowball; it is cold, packed nostalgia. And because this is Colorado with its ever-fickle weather, snow is the guest that comes into town every so often, sometimes on tiptoe, sometimes full of bluster, but rarely overstaying its welcome. In cities and towns, it is white fluff to brown slush to gone in a matter of days.

Without snow, "Colorado would become plain, nondescript," says Michelle Stapleton, a fourth-generation Coloradan who grew up south of Denver but whose family homesteaded deep in the mountains, outside of Snowmass and Grand Junction in the late 19th century. Her grandfather, who still lives on the Western Slope, likes to tell the story of a younger version of himself "walking uphill both ways" because of the constant snowfall. It's a typical grandpa story in his neck of the woods. But it is also a story now most often told in past tense.

Polly Oberoser and her husband Dave own a ranch outside Gunnison. Polly's dad, Forrest Cranor, came to the area in the late 1920s looking for work. He found a gig at Crested Butte Ski Resort, one he kept for four decades. Polly, one of four siblings, grew up without much of the money now needed to ski most of Colorado's resort mountains. She still remembers the exuberance of skiing down the hill behind their Almont home as a kid, the agony of the fall - "snow would get into my mouth, mittens and goggles" - and the dismay once the slope ended and friction drew her skis to an inevitable halt.

Before Polly and Dave bought their ranch, she worked for the ski resort as her dad did, and then put in more than two decades at a local ski shop. Now, when she is out tending to the horses and pigs on her ranch, she has a new appreciation for snow as the force that sustains her land and livestock all year. Snow, she says, is malleable - "the purest form of water."

"The seasons are important to me, for they ground me somehow," she says. "Maybe by that I mean they have taught me that our world is constantly changing, a lesson of life we often miss. It seems like when we live and work in changing environments, we are far more rounded."

It's snow's "liquid energy" that inspired David Rothman, the former poet laureate of Colorado's Western Slope and author of Living The Life: Tales From America's Mountains And Ski Towns, to publish Always Somewhere , an ode to snow-capped Rocky Mountain peaks.
Listen to Rothman read 'Always Somewhere' below. (Click HERE to read a transcript.)
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Rothman is also a former NCAA downhill skier. But these days, for him, skiing is all about the raw, pure backcountry experience. Even after three knee surgeries, he is still enchanted by the poetry of a man climbing up unchartered mountain terrain only to glide to the bottom on skis.

"It is a primal, religious experience," he says. "The idea is to get to the top of this thing, and it is completely wild. And you put these sticks on your feet, and you get to descend it in this balletic manner, I don't know what to compare it to."

As Colorado's population has grown from 4.3 million people in 2000 to more than 5.6 million today, so, too, has awareness of environmental issues and the threat climate change poses to Coloradans' love for powder. Colorado College's annual "Conservation in the West" poll has found that 87 percent of Coloradans believe the state's year-round recreation opportunities give it an economic advantage over other parts of the country and that voters here increasingly see themselves as conservationists.

But a clock is ticking.

There's less snow, and it is melting earlier

Scientists agree the shrinking of the snowpack across the American West stems directly from warming winters and climate change. The decline serves as a rapidly flashing red warning sign for what's inevitably to come to the Colorado Rockies - sooner rather than later if rising temperatures aren't curbed significantly.

At a meeting of the American Geophysical Union late last year, researchers presented a major study painting a bleak future for snow in the U.S. and beyond. The report, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, examined trends in snowpack measurements across the continental U.S., finding that changes on the East Coast have been relatively minor so far, but that the West has seen an average 41 percent decline in the amount of snow during winter since the early 1980s. Also during that period, the snow season has become an average 34 days shorter than it was in the 1980s, with spring conditions coming earlier than they used to in the western United States. So not only is there less snow, but it's also falling later and melting earlier.

The data in Colorado is still somewhat mixed, mostly because of the state's topography and weather systems. Higher elevations are still seeing close-to-normal snowfall, but lower elevations generally aren't. The signs of the change to come are beginning to reveal themselves in our own backyards, too. Annual measurements of April snowpack taken since the 1950s showed a 20 to 60 percent decline across most measuring sites in the state, according to the Environmental Protection Agency .

To make matters worse, Colorado, now in the 19th year of a drought that's beginning to look more like the new normal, is among the fastest-warming states in the U.S., with temperatures rising an average two degrees Fahrenheit over the last 35 years. Temperatures are expected to continue rising up to 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, according to a 2014 report on climate change in Colorado .

Already, March and November have seen a third less snow across the state compared to 35 years ago. That threatens both the beginning of Colorado's ski season and the month in which it sees a spike in out-of-state tourism.

Last winter, the driest in 17 years in Colorado, "we had a million less skiers," says Steven Fassnacht, a hydrologist at Colorado State University who published a recent study earlier this year examining snowpack trends in Northern Colorado . "So there are some financial implications in these changes."

Fassnacht and his colleagues on campuses around the state emphasize that Colorado's higher elevation and consequently colder temperatures, compared to other states across the West, are still protecting winters here from some of the more immediate consequences of our warming climate. Further study is necessary, he and other scientists say, to understand and therefore better predict how - and how quickly - warming temperatures will affect snowfall in the Colorado Rockies.

The problem with measuring snow

The first challenge in measuring climate change's impact on Colorado's winters is, in fact, the most basic one: Measuring the snow that is falling. Collecting the reliable, long-term data needed to formulate trends is much harder than it may seem.

" We put a man on the moon almost 50 years ago, but automating snow measurements is still surprisingly difficult," says Colorado State University climatologist Peter Goble.

T here are two main ways to measure snow, says Karl Wetlaufer, a hydrologist with the Colorado Snow Survey, a division of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service . One focuses on the amount of liquid water in the snow - an automated process using acoustic sensors. The other requires bundling up and going out every month to weigh a sample of the snowpack.
Click on the video below to listen to Wetlaufer discuss snow measurements and its challenges in more detail. (Click HERE for a transcript.)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1bngSgwSS8]

The challenge, particularly with automated measurements, Goble says, is that wind can impact how deep the snow is at any one point compared to another.

"An automated sensor is going to have no knowledge other than what is right on the snow pillow," Goble says. "Whereas when you have a human out there in a wind-driven event, they can look around and figure out: Where is a good, representative place to take a measurement?"

The lack of quality snowpack data from high-elevation sites also impacts the ability to accurately forecast future snowfalls, says David Gochis of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. While technologies like radar-powered airborne measurements are still being tested, the best way to know how much snow has fallen is, as Goble pointed out, getting boots on the ground.

Enter the army of volunteer weather observers, the indispensable support unit to the professional weather services.

How backyard observations drive your weather report

Every day, roughly 10,000 everyday people nationwide report online how much it snowed, rained or hailed in their backyards. They enter their observations into the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network database. The National Weather Service grabs that data, which is then often used in real time for local weather forecasts or emergency crews responding to big snowfall events in the mountains. Roughly 1,000, or 10 percent, of those observers live in Colorado, where the collaborative has its headquarters in Fort Collins.

Larry White is one of them.

The 72-year-old veteran of the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Reclamation has been taking measurements at his home in Evergreen for the past 16 years. A self-avowed weather geek, he takes pride in his meticulous data collection.

"I am not here all the time, but I have nice neighbors who take my place when I'm gone," he says. Consistency, he - quite sternly - points out, is key in weather data collection. Up here, outside of town, where scattered homes dot the mountain-side, snowfall is a community-building event.

"It gives us something to talk about at the coffee shop," White says. After all, the white stuff falling from the sky dictates both pace and quality of life in a remote mountain town.

White even loves shoveling snow. Afraid of the mystical forces of the jinx, he to this day has refused to buy a snow blower, despite his long driveway. "If I spend $2,000 on a snowblower, it won't snow again."

After he is done measuring the snow, White goes back inside, where a chart with snow crystal shapes based on temperature hangs on the wall. Lately, he has seen mostly the needle-shaped crystals that form in warmer temperatures rather than the wider, rounder shape commonly associated with snowflakes. W arming temperatures not only mean less snow, but a change in snow's consistency, threatening to turn Colorado's world-renowned champagne powder into much wetter, slower and more grippy snow.

That has a direct impact on White's biggest passion: Cross-country skiing. The proud owner of a vast collection of nordic skis, White even built his own wooden skis modeled after those of a 19th-century Norwegian farmer. He waxes all his skis himself.

"There is a whole series of waxes for the temperature and the age of the snow," he explains. When it is cold, as in his favorite skiing spot in Norway, he uses a green or a white wax. If the snow has melted several times and it is warmer, he reaches for a softer wax. "One thing I have noticed in my 30 years of skiing in Colorado," he says, "is that I am using softer and softer wax."

White has lived in Colorado for 27 years. He came here from California, via Nevada. It was a move that may have bought him some time before he has to look for a new hobby altogether. Snowfall in his home state is on a pretty much constant decline. But the notoriously variable weather in Colorado has White despairing over a lack of snow one year only to rejoice in its abundance the next.

"But all that snow this year..."

It's that year-to-year variability that poses the second major challenge for anyone who wants to analyze long-term snowfall trends in Colorado.

Many Coloradans this winter have made their way up the congestion tube better known as I-70 to ski at one of the state's many resorts. There has been a lot of snow to draw them. In fact, much of Colorado is on track to meet or exceed the state's snowpack average, says the Colorado Snow Survey's Wetlaufer. His data shows that the state has also already gotten almost twice as much snow as last year.

A lot of that early season boon came courtesy of what meteorologists call the El Niño effect , when higher-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean cause more storms in the American Southwest during snow season.

Wetlaufer calls this early winter's strong snow accumulation encouraging, "especially for the southern parts of the state that were extremely dry last year." But, he warns, "I think it is important to remember that it is still very, very early." To get a snowpack that can break the 19-year cycle of drought in parts of the state, he says, there must be a number of high-intensity spring storms, which are usually wetter in nature due to higher temperatures.

Remember Noah Molotch, the Skittles guy? He's also a snow hydrology associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, where he shifts his focus from the perfect line in fresh powder to understanding how it is affected by our changing climate.
Watch the video below to hear Molotch explain snowpack trends in more detail. (Click HERE for a transcript.)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaI_UNmZkzo]

As CSU climatologist Goble, who is also the Colorado coordinator for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network, further explains: "There is a list of things that we look at as climatologists that make your climate more naturally variable. Is it in the middle latitude? Yes, we are in the middle latitude. These tend to be more variable. Is it intercontinental? Yes, we are intercontinental. That tends to be more variable. Is it higher elevation? Once again, welcome to Colorful Colorado."

That naturally highly variable climate doesn't mean that it is not gradually warming, he says. But it drives home the point that precipitation totals here in Colorado have always seen big changes from a wet to a dry year. Reading reliable trends into those totals then becomes, Goble says, "kind of a craps shoot."

The threat to the ski industry

Perhaps no Colorado industry is watching snowpack data as closely as ski resorts and the multitude of businesses connected to them. In 2014, as many Americans watched the likes of Colorado native Mikaela Shiffrin compete for gold on the downhill alpine course at the Sotchi Winter Olympics, magazine features editor Porter Fox wrote a sobering op-ed in The New York Times laying out in painstaking detail the existential threat the ski industry is facing.

The highlights, or rather, lowlights, in Fox's essay: More than a million square miles of snow spring cover has disappeared in the Northern Hemisphere within the last half century. If greenhouse gas emissions aren't severely curtailed - and soon - snowpack in the Western United States will shrink so significantly that by 2100 it will disappear altogether in lower-elevation ski resorts like Park City and will relegate skiing to places like the top of Ajax Mountain in Aspen. Brown peaks in the middle of winter, Fox warned, may become the norm.

The consequences are not just cultural; they are economic.

A 2015 study commissioned by the nonprofit trade group Colorado Ski Country USA and Vail Resorts, found that Colorado's ski industry adds nearly $4.8 billion, or 1.3 percent, to the state's overall $363.8 billion economy. And nationwide, the advocacy organization Protect Our Winters in its 2018 Economic Report found that 20 million skiers, snowboarders and snowmobilers are contributing upward of $20 billion to the U.S. economy each year.

Given the billions of dollars at stake, it would seem only natural that the ski industry, nationally and locally, is organizing to fight climate-change inducing policies.

And indeed, in 2013, 108 ski resorts - 20 of them in Colorado - and 40 major national companies joined founding signatory Aspen Snowmass to sign on to the Business for Innovative Climate & Energy Policy Climate Declaration , which urged federal policymakers to take action on climate change by establishing a framework for sustainable business practices. Aspen Snowmass started the Give A Flake campaign, which aims to politically activate skiers and snowboarders to speak out on warming winters.

Right now, "there is no future for skiing," says Auden Schendler, vice president of sustainability at Aspen Snowmass and an outspoken climate action advocate.

Traditionally, being a sustainable business meant reducing your carbon footprint, reporting on the progress of those reductions and buying renewable energy or energy credits, Schendler says. Aspen Snowmass did those things for years while pushing to change the entire grid, he adds. Other places such as Vail have followed suit. But it is not enough, he says.

"There is no such thing as sustainability if you don't solve the climate problem," he says. "Are you meaningfully engaged in trying to solve climate change at scale, not in rinky-dink ways? I think that is the hallmark of what you might call a sustainable company."

What's needed, he says, is a unified industry push to get Washington to act on climate change - particularly in today's political climate.

"In a nutshell, the outdoor industry could be as powerful as the NRA in Washington, but on the climate issue," Schendler says. "But it hasn't yet used its power."

"Trade groups tend to be the lowest common denominator," he says. "In Colorado and nationally, they have membership that doesn't believe that it is the mission of the trade group to work on climate. They have members who don't believe the science. So it is very difficult for trade groups to lead, even though they should be leading."

Schendler's reading is off the mark, says Geraldine Link, director of public policy at the Lakewood-based National Ski Areas Association.

She points out that when the NSAA adopted its climate change policy in 2002, it made advocacy a key goal. Since then, the organization has come up with its signature Climate Challenge program . So far, 10 out of 26 Colorado resorts have chosen to take part, all agreeing to do what they can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy use as well as to educate their visitors on how they can do the same . NSAA has also signed on to the national We Are Still In campaign, an initiative that has spawned locally-led efforts to keep the U.S. on track to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement after President Trump rescinded the United States' official commitment to the pact in 2017. The association also signed on to the Citizens' Climate Lobby campaign to decarbonize the electric grid.

"We are not waiting on Washington to pass some kind of federal legislation," Link says. "That will happen, someday. But in the absence of that federal work right now, there is all kinds of initiatives at the local level to decarbonize the grid. A lot of resorts are working with their utilities to increase the amount of renewable energy that is on the grid."

But those environmental sustainability initiatives also can run headlong into economic imperatives that can further stress the land and tap its resources. For example, Link says NSAA also has been focused on water rights and water access to secure snowmaking operations and lobbied Congress to pass a bill in 2011 that allows ski areas to have facilities on public lands on year-round basis .

Ski resorts traditionally have made artificial snow to fill up the snowpack. But they still need cold temperatures to produce that snow. And the window to use that technique is becoming smaller, particularly as the early ski season is warming - the time of year most resorts supplement natural powder with man-made snow to build a foundation for the rest of the year.

Faced with evidence of shorter ski seasons, Rose Abello, who oversees Snowmass Tourism, the local government agency promoting the area, takes a matter-of-fact approach to shorter ski seasons: Leave the larger response not up to the government, as Link and Schendler suggest, but to the private sector.

"Businesses will be created, and some will survive and some will go away," she says. "And we will promote those businesses."

Chuckling, she says she's not going to regular meetings where the question is: " 'What are we going to do if climate change makes skiing unavailable?'"

Abello does point out that her office has in recent years spent much time and effort to make Aspen Snowmass a more attractive year-round destination, vying for conferences and special events such as the Tough Mudder races that routinely bring more than 10,000 visitors to their tour stops. Occupancy from May to October, she says, has since increased 130 percent - other resorts such as Vail have seen similar numbers . The problem with attracting summer visitors, Abello acknowledges, is that their vacation habits are different. Winter visitors stay in town for a week to ski, but summer visitors often only make Aspen Snowmass a quick stop on their alpine pilgrimage through the Colorado Rockies.

Looking for answers to climate change in politics and science

Aspen Snowmass is not alone in searching for strategies to fight climate change and preserve the industry.

The Steamboat Ski and Resort Corporation is cooperating with scientists like Noah Molotch, who regularly does field work at the Storm Peak Laboratory within the resort bounds. The partnership, Molotch says, is mutually beneficial: Scientists get to study how, for example, clouds affect climate and its changes. (Clouds both cool temperatures by reflecting light and warm them by trapping heat.) Scientists also are studying the impact of particulates from nearby coal plants upon snowfall. And the ski resort gets, among other things, more accurate snow level data to pass on to skiers and snowboarders on its website.
Click on the video to watch Molotch talk about the partnership and the research at Steamboat. (Click HERE for a transcript.)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Px91XMbt5QA]

At the Boulder-based climate advocacy organization Protect Our Winters a team of young, idealistic ski and snowboard aficionados is working overtime to unite all outdoor enthusiasts to speak with one voice on climate change.

"We really hit a spot where in 2018 we saw that within the outdoor community it became uncool to not vote," says Torrey Udall, POW's director of development and operations. Udall comes from a well-known political family in Colorado. His father was Randy Udall, a nationally-renowned energy sustainability advocate who died while on a hike in 2013. His uncle is former Colorado U.S. Senator Mark Udall, who now sits on the board of the organization's political advocacy arm, POW Action Fund.

Companies are feeling pressure to sound the alarm, Torrey Udall says. "The industry giants are all speaking out on this issue ... And if you are not doing it, people are wondering why, and you are positioned for more blowback than you usually would. That is a shift from five to 10 years ago."

Udall and Co. are modeling their strategy not just after the NRA but some of the most successful popular reform movements in recent history, including the anti-smoking movement.

"It is key to focus the messaging on what are we for, the solutions that we are advocating, and then how do you build coalitions around that," Udall says.

After the 2016 election, he says, "the gloves have really come off." Written in large capital letters on one of the POW office whiteboards: #DENYTHEDENIERS.
Watch the video below of Torrey Udall talking about his family's legacy and POW's work. (Click HERE for a transcript.)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KzBXiKREU8]

In the meantime, scientists and statesare taking winter into their own hands.

How? During every storm, only a fraction of the moisture flowing over the mountains is falling out of the clouds as snow. What if that could be increased? States across the Rocky Mountain West, including Colorado, Wyoming and Idaho, all have established their own cloud-seeding operations. Cloud-seeding even gets a mention in the Colorado Water Plan.

The state currently has 112 ground-based generators blowing particulates into the air in hopes that they crystallize in clouds and fall back down as snow, and it is exploring augmenting that same process via airplanes. California, Arizona and Nevada are pitching in on Colorado's $1.2 million annual cloud-seeding operation, envisioning that the increase in eventual runoff will bolster the ebbing flows of the Colorado River.
Click below to listen to NCAR meteorologist David Gochis talk about Colorado's cloud-seeding program. (Click HERE for a transcript.)
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Gochis points out, though, that cloud seeding alone is not a sustainable way to save moribund winters - simply because it is costly and only increases snowfall during any given storm by a few percentage points, if that.

And so, as winters are warming, the state's outdoor and scientific communities are in a race for knowledge, for political power, for time.

At the Storm Peak Lab at Steamboat resort, Noah Molotch closes up a box of instruments and wades through a coat of fresh, fluffy powder back to where his daughter Stella is waiting for him to take her on another Skittle-prompted ski run. His face turns soft as he reflects on the past, present and future of this valley that 27 years ago lured him to the state he now calls home.

"What brought me to Colorado, what kept me in Colorado, are these winter experiences," he said. "Whether it is Stella's generation, or her children, or her grandchildren, it is inevitable that on the trajectory we are on, the way people experience winter in Colorado is going to change."
Next: Spring - a detailed look at a snowpack that is thinner and melting earlier, and the problems that climate change poses for Colorado's water supply and the lives depending on it.

Lars Gesing is a German-born freelance political writer based in Denver. He has a Master's degree in journalism from the CU-Boulder's College of Media, Communication and Information. He moved back to Colorado in the fall of 2018 after two years reporting on the Trump White House in Washington, D.C.

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Editor's Note: Over the next year, The Colorado Independent will examine, season by season, the effects climate change is having on the state's water supply and the many forms of life it sustains. Every time Stella Molotch finishes a run down the ski slope at Steamboat, her dad Noah slips two Skittles into her tiny hands.

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How's our river doing? This is updated daily

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USGS Current Conditions for USGS 09361500 ANIMAS RIVER AT DURANGO, CO

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Station operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Bureau of Reclamation, Southwestern Water Conservation District, Animas La-Plata Operation, Maintenance, & Replacement Association, and The Town of Durango. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment provides funding for the water quality data.

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Animas River, once again, sets record low flow

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Animas River, once again, sets record low flow

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Durango Herald

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Once again, the Animas River has recorded a record low flow, according to a gauge in Durango with more than a century's worth of data collecting.

Before this winter, the previous low flow at the U.S. Geological Survey's water gauge behind the Powerhouse Science Center was on March 2, 1913, when the Animas River was running at 94 cubic feet per second.

But on Christmas Day this winter, the Animas tallied a new low when the gauge showed water levels at 79.6 cfs, breaking the previous record, which covers 110 years' worth of data.

For reference, 1 cfs equals about 7.5 gallons flowing by a particular point in one second.

But it appears that new record low didn't last long.

On Feb. 17, water levels started to dip below 100 cfs, which used to be a rare occurrence in itself.

Then on Thursday, the Animas dropped to 71.4 cfs, setting the new milestone. It has since returned to about 110 cfs, still about half the amount of what is typical for this day in history, based the gauge's average.

"I think we all know the West is going through a drought right now," said Steve Anders, Western Colorado data section chief for USGS.

Jarrod Biggs, assistant utilities director for the city of Durango, speculated that last week's cold snap resulted in less water melting into the Animas, causing levels to drop.

"It made sense," he said.

Durango's main water source is the Florida River, but the city has the ability to draw from the Animas if needed. Biggs said so far this winter, the city has not had to draw from the Animas.

"If we had to turn on the pumps, we could, and that's comforting," he said. "But the Florida continues to be our workhorse."

After a slow start to the winter, snowpack in Southwest Colorado has been steadily climbing after a recent series of storms.

Federal records show Southwest Colorado - which includes the Animas, Dolores, San Miguel and San Juan river basins - is at 86% of historic averages, based on the past 30 years.

As of Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor lists La Plata County in some form of drought.

jromeo@durangoherald.com

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Animas River, once again, sets record low flow

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Once again, the Animas River has recorded a record low flow, according to a gauge in Durango with more than a century's worth of data collecting. Before this winter, the previous low flow at the U.S. Geological Survey's water gauge behind the Powerhouse Science Center was on March 2, 1913, when the Animas River was running at 94 cubic feet per second.

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Four Seasons: Colorado water in a changing climate

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Four Seasons: Colorado water in a changing climate

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Audio/video version of the article. You only need to watch or read this one or the other!

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This map picture I made shows where the snow pack starts before it melts into our Animas River.

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Here is a map picture about the Animas River and the snowpack that makes it. The light blue is the width of the rivers on years with not much snow melt. The dark blue is the years of a lot of snow.

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Water is the most important resource we have in Southwest Colorado! 

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Water is the most important resource we have in Southwest Colorado! 

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This is the map that speaker Nathan showed during his presentation last year

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Colorado Water Plan Grant Projects Map - Water for Colorado

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Where is above 8,000 feet?

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Detailed Description

The Water Cycle for Schools

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have teamed up to create a water-cycle diagram for schools. This diagram is available in many languages.

Interactive water-cycle diagram:
Our interactive diagram allows you to "mouse around" the parts of the water cycle and view explanations, pictures, and more online. The diagram is available for three levels of students.

Details

Image Dimensions: 1450 x 1037

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The Water Cycle for Schools The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have teamed up to create a water-cycle diagram for schools. This diagram is available in many languages. Interactive water-cycle diagram: Our interactive diagram allows you to "mouse around" the parts of the water cycle and view explanations, pictures, and more online.

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How did it get there?

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"The dust storms are a harbinger of a broader phenomenon, researchers say, as global warming translates into less precipitation and a population boom intensifies the activities that are disturbing the dust in the first place. Jayne Belnap, a research ecologist at the U.S. Geological Survey who has studied the issue, predicts that by midcentury, the fragility of the region's soil "will be equal to that of the Dust Bowl days,"" (Eilperin, 2009) .

Global warming could exacerbate the problem

"Under global warming, increased drought is projected for the southwest US, Middle East, and the expanding Sahel. All of these deserts are known dust sources for winter and spring deposition to mountain snow cover in the Rocky Mountains, Central Asia, and the Alps, respectively" (Painter et al., 2007).

"Future drying in desert regions and projected expansion and intensification of use of arid and semi-arid lands could cause regional dust emission to increase in frequency and magnitude. Therefore, earlier snowmelt and its effects on mountain water resources and glacial extent is a likely scenario in many of the world's mountain ranges under enhanced dust deposition" (Painter et al., 2007).

"By 2050, increased temperature alone is expected to decrease average soil moisture conditions in the southwestern US to levels below those experienced during the most severe droughts of this century, including the Dust Bowl years. Such declines in soil moisture will probably result in a reduction in the protective vegetative cover, a slower recovery from disturbance, and an increase in dust emission from exposed soil. Lower soil moisture will also mean drier fuels that burn more readily - wildfires in the western US are projected to increase substantially in both frequency and intensity, which will also increase exposed soils and the hydrophobicity of those soils, thus amplifying dust emissions" (Field et al., 2009).

Human activity "fueling the fire"

"An increase in human settlement/use of these landscapes will be accompanied by a further loss in the protective covering of plants, plant litter, and physical and biological soil crusts, thereby amplifying dust emissions from the disturbed surfaces. Offroad recreational activity in southern California has risen from virtually zero in 1960 to almost 10 million user-days in 2006. If users drive 32 km per day, this specific activity alone, in this relatively small region, can generate as much as 2.7 metric tons of dust per year. The now-exploding exploration and development of energy resources (including wind and solar) in dryland regions are also of concern. All of these activities will result in the loss of vegetation and soil surface protectors (eg scraping away vegetation for solar farms and oil pads), increased offroad vehicle traffic, pipelines, transmission lines, and greatly increased traffic on existing and newly established dirt roads" (Field et al., 2009).

"In summary, greater dust emissions, including more frequent and larger dust storms, are likely to occur from dryland regions as temperatures increase and more dryland areas are trampled, cleared of vegetation, plowed, and/or converted from perennial to annual plants" (Field et al., 2009).

Hurdles to overcome

"The overarching challenge for ecologists and other environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers will be to work together to manage vulnerable areas in ways that reduce excess dust production to the fullest extent possible" (Field et al., 2009).

Innovative storm prediction techniques

"Researchers based at the University of Pittsburgh have developed a method for predicting dust and sandstorms that uses infrared satellite images to determine when conditions are ripe for the destructive phenomena, a technique that could be implemented globally and that the research team used to forecast a 2008 New Mexico dust storm - the area's largest in decades - two days beforehand.

Thermal and visible images of New Mexico's White Sands Dune Field captured by NASA's Earth-orbiting ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer) instrument reliably indicated when soil moisture levels were low enough to result in a dust storm, the team recently reported in the Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface. Lead author Stephen Scheidt, a research associate in Pitt's Department of Geology and Planetary Science; Michael Ramsey, a Pitt associate professor of geology and planetary science and member of NASA's ASTER science team; and Nicholas Lancaster of Nevada's Desert Research Institute further determined that this approach could be expanded into a worldwide system to monitor areas prone to dust storms or to track drought in regions threatened by desertification" (ScienceDaily, 2010) .

Publications to look out for

Painter, T. H., J. Deems, A. Hamlet, J. Belnap, and C. C. Landry, Decreased yield from the Colorado River Basin under dust-accelerated snowmelt, Science, in review.

Lawrence, C.L., Neff, J.C., and Farmer, G.L. ( In Preparation) The influence of aeolian accretion on the geochemistry of high elevation soils of the southern Rocky Mountains, USA.

Lawrence, C.L., Neff, J.C., and Farmer, G.L. ( Submitted) The relative contribution of aeolian dust and locally derived parent materials to high elevation soils of the southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface.

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"The dust storms are a harbinger of a broader phenomenon, researchers say, as global warming translates into less precipitation and a population boom intensifies the activities that are disturbing the dust in the first place. Jayne Belnap, a research ecologist at the U.S.

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Look at current snow and trail conditions for any activity!

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FATMAP | Discover a world of adventure...

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Discover the best hiking, biking and skiing adventures across the world's best outdoor spaces, all written by local experts. Plan your day with beautifully detailed 3D maps and take your maps to even the most remote places with offline access

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“Dust pulls more solar energy into the snowpack, which is essentially a reservoir of water for managers across the West. In dusty years, snow melts earlier. The rate of runoff can increase substantially compared to low dust-on-snow years.”

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Colorado Avalanche Information Center tracks weather trends and snowpack in Colorado

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Stop the 2020-2021 Trend in Avalanche Deaths

This year, Colorado is approaching the most avalanche fatalities in the last 100 years. Let's stop the trend. Click on the map to get the forecast and check out educational resources here.
Commitment to Getting the Forecast this Winter
Getting the forecast is the most important thing you can do before you head into the backcountry. We are joining our partners at the Friends of CAIC and asking everyone to pledge to check the avalanche forecast before you head out into the backcountry this winter. Take it, share it, do it - let's build a safer community together! https://www.forecastpledge.org

See More Observations

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Stop the 2020-2021 Trend in Avalanche Deaths This year, Colorado is approaching the most avalanche fatalities in the last 100 years. Let's stop the trend. Click on the map to get the forecast and check out educational resources here.

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Colorado River Is in Danger of a Parched Future

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Colorado River Is in Danger of a Parched Future

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The Colorado River is a lifeline. It flows from the central Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming through five other U.S. states, 11 U.S. national parks and two Mexican states on a 1,450-mile-long journey that supplies water to 40 million people, supports uncounted wildlife and irrigates more than five million acres of farmland. And the river is endangered.

Not only are humans drawing unsustainable amounts of water from this source, but abnormally low precipitation and hot, dry conditions have been shrinking it for years-an alarming trend that is likely to worsen as climate change takes its toll. "To the extent that water is life, the idea that we lose the Colorado River-or even that it is diminished-has an outsize impact on this region," says Jennifer Pitt, Colorado River Program director at the National Audubon Society. Yet despite the river's importance, scientists have had a hard time pinning down how much its flow may decline as the world warms. To Chris Milly, a senior research scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey, the question is both disconcerting and fascinating. "I was pulled into the mystery of what was really going on in the river basin," he says. "My interest bordered on obsession."

That obsession turned into a year-long immersion in data. The results, published Thursday in , suggest that by midcentury, the river could lose 14 to 31 percent of its historical flow from the period of 1913-2017.

Milly and his colleague Krista Dunne, also at USGS, created an extremely detailed computer model that analyzed how water moves in and out of the Colorado River basin via precipitation, melting snowpack, evaporation and other key processes. But because there are several physical parameters with values that are difficult to measure (such as the maximum amount of water the soil can hold at any given location in the basin), the researchers ran the model a whopping 500,000 times-tweaking those unknown parameters in every instance-until they found 171 versions that reproduced historical records remarkably well. They then projected their new and improved model into the decades ahead in order to estimate how the river might shift if the basin's temperature increases by one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). The answer was grim: its flow would drop by 9.3 percent. Based on a range of climate scenarios, Milly and Dunne went on to predict that by midcentury, the Colorado River's flow will likely decrease by as much as 31 percent, compared with historical values.

The study indicates the Colorado's future hinges on snowpack, which is a major source of its water, because as the snow gradually melts in the spring and summer, the resulting water trickles into the ground, the river and its tributaries. "We discovered that snow cover behaves as a protective shield," Milly says. Its high surface reflectivity, or albedo, throws back incoming solar radiation and keeps the ground beneath it relatively cool. But climate change is reducing the extent of that shield, allowing more solar radiation to penetrate the surface and thus creating a number of cascading effects. A large amount of moisture within the soil and trees will likely evaporate. Much of the remaining snowpack and groundwater will do so as well, leaving little water to run into the river.

Brad Udall, a senior scientist at Colorado State University, who was not involved in the new paper, calls its findings-particularly the 9.3 percent drop in flow-"eye-popping." Udall co-authored a 2017 study that suggested the flow would decrease by 3 to 10 percent per 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit of warming, so the fact that Milly and Dunne's number sits at the high end of that range grabbed his attention. But he does not doubt the researchers' results, which, he says, went into much greater detail than previous efforts. "I would argue that they did it more elegantly and more rigorously," he says. "And you have to take this result pretty seriously."

Udall thinks the findings will have major ramifications for water managers and users alike. "Every drop in that river is being used. And any reduction like that is going to cause serious pain," he says. But he is hopeful that conservation managers will find the best route forward. "I like to say, 'Hey, if we've got 20 percent less, that still means the glass is 80 percent full,'" he says. "Let's get smart and savvy and figure out how to use what we've got." Meanwhile Pitt, who was also not involved in the new study, is similarly inspired by a resolution reached last year when the seven U.S. states that host the river agreed to voluntarily cut their water use.

Still, Pitt worries that the Colorado River will continue to change-and in unpredictable ways. Although scientists have made significant strides in forecasting the impacts of rising global temperatures, those projections cannot include the inherent variability of water flow in the river. The historical record, for example, shows it might drop to roughly four million acre-feet in one year and climb to about 24 million acre-feet in another-all because of a varying snowpack. (An acre-foot is the volume of one foot of water over an area of one acre, or roughly 326,000 gallons.)* In addition, these studies cannot take into account the many broader changes that the decreasing snowpack will manifest in the Southwest. Not only does the early snowmelt create a darker, more absorptive earth, it also bumps summer-and fire season-earlier. That process will further dry the region and reduce the flow of water into the Colorado River.

"Water is sort of a silent utility," Pitt says. "People don't tend to think about it or worry about it. But the potential impacts are enormous."
*Editor's Note (2/2/20): This sentence was edited after posting. It originally described an acre-foot as the volume of an area of one foot of water over a depth of one acre.

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Colorado River Is in Danger of a Parched Future

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The Colorado River is a lifeline. It flows from the central Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming through five other U.S. states, 11 U.S. national parks and two Mexican states on a 1,450-mile-long journey that supplies water to 40 million people, supports uncounted wildlife and irrigates more than five million acres of farmland.

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Snow accumulates without melting in shaded or level areas at elevations above about 8,000 feet

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Weather.gov > Denver/Boulder, CO > Colorado Snowpack

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Back to the water cycle on the USGS Water Science School.

Fog

Fog is just a cloud that happens to be hanging around on the Earth's surface.

Fog contains very tiny liquid water particles, like a cloud, and floats, like a cloud. Actually, fog IS a cloud, but one that swirls around your feet instead of high in the sky. Fog forms when air containing invisible water vapor encounters cooler temperatures (here, next to the ground) and the water vapor condenses out into liquid water-the cloud.

In this picture, as the day warms the air next to the ground will warm, too, and the fog particles will again evaporate back into invisible water vapor.

Groundwater flow

If you pour a glass of water onto the ground it usually sinks right in ( infiltration), so you can imagine how much water sinks into the ground during a major storm ( Find out here). Here in Atlanta, Ga, USA it rains about 50 inches/year. Over a 100 square mile (10 miles by 10 miles) area that means 87,000 billion gallons of water falls, with much of it soaking into the ground to recharge groundwater.

Yes, water below your feet is moving all the time, but, no, if you have heard there are rivers flowing below ground, that is not true.

Groundwater flow. Relate to recharge a battery.

Groundwater

When you are standing on the ground, you're not only standing on dirt, but on water-a lot of water. The dirt and rock below your feet contains lots of spaces and cracks, and water can exist in these open spaces. In fact, over 20 times the amount of water in all of Earth's rivers and lakes is in the ground.

When you pour a glass of water on your yard, the water sinks (infiltrates) into the ground and gets back into being a vital part of the global water cycle.

Of course, the rock underground is different all over the world, so how much and where water occurs of water underground is different everywhere. Deep in the ground, the rock becomes very hard and solid (no open spaces to hold water), and it also gets very hot, so no liquid water is found deep in the Earth.

Ice and snow

Ice and glaciers are part of the water cycle, even though the water moving in them changes very slowly. The amount of ice on the Earth goes up and down as the world's climate cools and warms over thousands of years.

Lucky for us we're now in a warmer phase of the Earth's history, but the last Ice Age was only 18,000 years ago. At that time, ice covered the northern part of North America.

Ice and glaciers are still around today, as this picture shows. In fact, most of the world's freshwater, about 68 percent, is locked up in ice, snow, and glaciers.

Oceans

If you look at this picture (or click on it for a larger version) you see that "tiny" blue ball sitting in the middle of the United States-if all the water on, in, and above the Earth was collected in one big ball, this is the size it would be.

The oceans are, by far, the largest reservoir of water on earth-over 96% of all of Earth's water exists in the oceans.

Oceans are important to the water cycle because almost all the water that evaporates from liquid to water vapor (which forms clouds) comes from the oceans.

Precipitation

The air is full of water, even if you can't see it. Higher in the sky where it is colder than at the land surface, invisible water vapor condenses into tiny liquid water droplets-clouds. When the cloud droplets combine to form heavier cloud drops, it can start to rain, snow, hail....all forms of precipitation.

The amount of precipitation that falls is different all around the world. In deserts, such as in Chile, it may only rain one inch per year, while on some mountains in Hawaii and in India, it can rain more than 600 inches per year. That is almost 2 inches every day!

Precipitation is the "exit ramp" back to earth from the water-cycle superhighway in the sky that is moving clouds all around the globe.

Rivers

Most of the rain that falls stays on the land surface and, due to gravity, starts running downhill. This runoff water will accumulate in creeks ... I mean, in streams ...no, I mean, in rivers. Actually, no matter what you call them, rivers are responsible for moving a lot of water off of the land and back into oceans.

Of course, plants, animals, and people interact with rivers, as all kinds of life seems to thrive around rivers. If you look at a map of the world, you see how people naturally build their cities next to rivers.

And, as this satellite picture of the Nile River in Egypt, you can often pick out the rivers because of the green growth growing along them.

Seepage

You know all about seepage. When you spill your red fruit drink onto your Mom's white carpet, she rushes (after glaring at you) to get a sponge to soak up the liquid before it "seeps down into the carpet".

With the water cycle, seepage occurs when precipitation falls on the landscape and starts to soak into the ground. The "Why?" this happens is simply gravity. But, seepage doesn't just happen downward! Water seeps upwards and sideways, too, from the ground into the bottom of rivers, lakes, and the oceans. Some of the water you see flowing in a river has come up from the ground.

The Sun

Who's the Boss? The sun is the real boss of the water cycle, and it doesn't even live here on Earth. The sun is what makes the water cycle work. The sun provides what almost everything on Earth needs to go-energy, or heat.

The sun's heat allows liquid water to evaporate into water vapor, which in the main way water gets from the land surface back into the sky.

The sun also participates in moving water around the Earth by being the reason winds exist. The winds move clouds and the weather all over the place; all of this mixing up and moving is an important part of the water cycle.

Evapotranspiration (Evaporation and transpiration)

When a person breathes, their breath contains water molecules. All the plants around you are "breathing" and releasing water, too. The term is called "transpiration", and although a brussels sprout doesn't have a mouth, it has tiny holes in its leaves that allow water to leave the leaf, via evaporation, and go into the air.

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Interactive Water Cycle Diagram for Kids (Intermediate)

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The Water Cycle for Kids, from the USGS Water Science School.

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What does that mean for snowpack and water?

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Snowmelt Runoff and the Water Cycle

If you live in Florida or on the French Riviera you might not wake up everyday wondering how melting snow contributes to the water cycle. But, in the world-wide scheme of the water cycle, runoff from snowmelt is a major component of the global movement of water. Of course, the importance of snowmelt varies greatly geographically, and in warmer climates it does not directly play a part in water availability. In the colder climates, though, much of the springtime runoff and streamflow in rivers is attributable to melting snow and ice.

Mountain snow fields act as natural reservoirs for many western United States water-supply systems, storing precipitation from the cool season, when most precipitation falls and forms snowpacks, until the warm season when most or all snowpacks melt and release water into rivers. As much as 75 percent of water supplies in the western states are derived from snowmelt.

During certain times of the year water from snowmelt can be responsible for almost all of the streamflow in a river. An example is the South Platte River in Colorado and Nebraska. Historically, the South Platte River was essentially "turned off" after the supply of water coming from melting snow was exhausted in late spring. Today, though, seepage of irrigation water from ditches and fields replenishes the alluvial aquifer (water-bearing deposit of sand and gravel left behind by a river) during spring and summer, and the aquifer slowly drains during fall and winter by discharging groundwater to the South Platte River. Indirectly, your buying a loaf of wheat bread in the grocery store helps to keep water flowing in the South Platte River all year long.

Contribution of snowmelt to streamflow

A good way to visualize the contribution of snowmelt to streamflow in rivers is to look at the hydrograph below, which shows daily mean streamflow (average streamflow for each day) for four years for the North Fork American River at North Fork Dam in California. The large peaks in the chart are mainly the result of melting snow, although storms can contribute runoff also. Compare the fact that minimum mean-daily streamflow during March of 2000 was 1,200 cubic feet per second (ft ³/s), while during August streamflows ranged from 55-75 ft ³/s.

Note that runoff from snowmelt varies not only by season but also by year. Compare the high peaks of streamflows for the year 2000 with the much smaller streamflows for 2001. It looks like a major drought hit that area of California in 2001. The lack of water stored as snowpack in the winter can affect the availability of water for the rest of the year. This can have an effect on the amount of water in reservoirs located downstream, which in turn can affect water available for irrigation and the water supply for cities and towns.

Snowmelt and flooding

The effect of snowmelt on potential flooding, mainly during the spring, is something that causes concern for many people around the world. Besides flooding, rapid snowmelt can trigger landslides and debris flows. In alpine regions like Switzerland, snowmelt is a major component of runoff. In combination with specific weather conditions, such as excessive rainfall on melting snow for example, it may even be a major cause of floods. In Switzerland, snowmelt forecasting is being used as a flood-warning tool to predict snowmelt runoff and potential flooding.

In some parts of the world, such as in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, annual springtime flood events occur when rain falls on existing snowpacks, known as a "rain-on-snow event." Runoff during rain-on-snow events has been associated with mass-wasting of hill slopes, damage to riparian (areas alongside streams) zones, downstream flooding and associated damage, and loss of life. Some studies suggest that the amount of forest cover can have an influence on the magnitude of rain-on-snow events.

In January 1996, a combination of factors contributed to massive flooding in the northeastern United States. Heavy snowfall followed by a sudden thaw and heavy rain caused floods along rivers from New York through Pennsylvania to Virginia, producing water levels not seen since a major hurricane, Hurricane Agnes, hit the area in June 1972. Major rivers in Pennsylvania and the Potomac River were affected. The raging rivers, sometimes jammed with ice, caused a number of deaths and required many people to evacuate their homes. Ice blocks carried by the floodwaters exacerbated the damage done to buildings, bridges, and dams.
Sources and more information:

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If you live in Florida or on the French Riviera you might not wake up everyday wondering how melting snow contributes to the water cycle. But, in the world-wide scheme of the water cycle, runoff from snowmelt is a major component of the global movement of water.

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How is the temperature changing in Colorado?

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How is the temperature changing in Colorado?

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Colorado River flow shrinks from climate crisis, risking severe water shortages

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Colorado River flow shrinks from climate crisis, risking severe water shortages

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The flow of the Colorado River is dwindling due to the impacts of global heating, risking "severe water shortages" for the millions of people who rely upon one of America's most storied waterways, researchers have found.

Increasing periods of drought and rising temperatures have been shrinking the flow of the Colorado in recent years and scientists have now developed a model to better understand how the climate crisis is fundamentally changing the 1,450-mile waterway.

The loss of snow in the Colorado River basin due to human-induced global heating has resulted in the river absorbing more of sun's energy, thereby increasing the amount of water lost in evaporation, the US Geological Survey scientists found.

This is because snow and ice reflect sunlight back away from the Earth's surface, a phenomenon known as the albedo effect. The loss of albedo as snow and ice melt away is reducing the flow of the Colorado by 9.5% for each 1C of warming, according to the research published in Science.

The world has heated up by about 1C since the pre-industrial era and is on course for an increase of more than 3C by the end of the century unless planet-warming emissions are drastically cut. For the Colorado this scenario means an "increasing risk of severe water shortages", the study states, with any increase in rainfall not likely to offset the loss in reflective snow.

The magnitude of the Colorado's decline as outlined in the Science paper is "eye popping", according to Brad Udall, a senior scientist at Colorado State University and an expert on water supplies in the west who was not involved in the research.

"This has important implications for water users and managers alike," Udall said. "More broadly, these results tell us that we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as soon as we possible can.

"We've wasted nearly 30 years bickering over the science. The science is crystal clear - we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions immediately."

The Colorado rises in the Rocky Mountains and slices through ranch lands and canyons, including the Grand Canyon, as it winds through the American west. It previously emptied into the Gulf of California in Mexico but now ends several miles shy of this due to the amount of water extraction for US agriculture and cities ranging from Denver to Tijuana.

The river's upper basin supplies water to about 40 million people and supports 16m jobs. It feeds the two largest water reserves in the US, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, with the latter supplying Las Vegas with almost all of its water.

Snowpacks that last into late spring have historically fed streams that have nourished the Colorado River, as well as reducing the likelihood of major fires. As the climate heats up, the river is evaporating away and the risk of damaging wildfires is increasing.

The climate crisis is compounding existing threats to the river, which include intensive water pumping for agriculture, water use by urban areas and the threat of pollution from uranium mining. Lake Mead, the vast reservoir formed by the Hoover dam, has dropped to levels not seen since the 1960s.

A 19-year drought that racked stretches of the river almost provoked the US government to impose mandatory cuts in water use from the river last year, only for seven western states to agree to voluntary reductions. The problems are set to become more severe, however, as the climate becomes hotter and drier at a time when demand for water from expanding cities in the American west increases.
Topics

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Colorado River flow shrinks from climate crisis, risking 'severe water shortages'

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The flow of the Colorado River is dwindling due to the impacts of global heating, risking "severe water shortages" for the millions of people who rely upon one of America's most storied waterways, researchers have found.

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Colorado mountain snowpack in “good spot” for water supply heading into spring

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Colorado mountain snowpack in “good spot” for water supply heading into spring

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Colorado's mountain snow is measuring slightly higher than normal for this time of year, a vulnerable moment for cities and food growers ahead of spring, boosting confidence that water for crops, cattle and a growing population will be adequate.

Federal survey data showed the statewide snowpack at 106% of the norm between 1981 and 2010, but with significant variation between northern and southern mountains - a trend over the past decade.

And forecasters anticipated that dry soil from last year's warm arid fall likely will reduce water in streams and rivers once snow melts. Much depends on snowfall this month, and March often brings heavy snow.

Southwestern Colorado faced drier conditions with snowpack between 86% and 94 % of the norm, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Colorado Snow Survey found. Snow in the South Platte River Basin (124%), Upper Colorado River Basin (114%) and Arkansas River Basin (109%) - the main water sources for Denver, Colorado Springs and northern Front Range cities - promised reasonably sufficient water.

Snow survey supervisor Brian Domonkos said Colorado was in "a good spot" overall, assuming more precipitation in the right places over the next few weeks.

The amount of water in rivers and streams "is going to be better in the northeast, and not as good in the southwest," Domonkos said.

"In the southwestern corner of the state, we need more snow, above-average snow accumulation. In the northern part of the state, we're above normal. We don't need more. A little more would be good for the spring and summer runoff."

Snowpack in Colorado's high mountains serves as a natural reservoir, holding water until spring, when rising temperatures melt the snow. This sends water into streams and rivers.

Snow survey data between now and mid-April, when snowpack typically peaks, captivates water providers because Colorado snow feeds headwaters of major rivers. Strains on the Colorado River, in particular, rivet attention on anticipated runoff that soon will be diverted and stored in massive man-made reservoirs.

A growing population of more than 40 million across seven western states relies on the Colorado River, even as scientists warn that warming temperatures linked to climate change are decreasing flows.

At Denver Water, water supply manager Nathan Elder said he's been checking snowpack data since October.

"We're trending in a positive direction. The early indicators are that we're headed for a normal or slightly above normal water year," Elder said.

Substantial mountain snow doesn't necessarily mean more water in streams and rivers. A relatively warm, dry fall led to dry soil, which can reduce streamflow.

"Even though we have above-normal snowpack, we have really depleted soil moisture," he said. "That roughly equates to normal runoff. The soil moisture is going to have to be refilled before you see a lot of flows in the streams."

Denver's reservoirs were 85% full, higher than the normal 80% at this time of year. Utility officials' goal: Fill the reservoirs to 100% on July 1 to ensure water availability after snow on mountains melts and evaporates.

If spring temperatures climb too quickly, Denver Water cannot easily capture runoff because the city's water rights are conditional for use after April 1. And while more snow is welcome, water managers said too much can cause flooding.

Denver planners have been working for years to expand Gross Reservoir, west of Boulder, to store more water from northern mountains. The idea is to become more resilient as snow becomes more variable.

Agriculture uses about 85% of Colorado's water supplies. Among urban residents, people in Denver use around 80 gallons a day per person for all indoor and outdoor purposes. A utility push for efficiency includes a target of 40 gallons per person for indoor use.

"Climate change is going to increase the uncertainty of future precipitation and stream flows. We're likely to see more extreme events, extreme droughts. That's why we're working on that northern Gross Reservoir expansion," Elder said, "to cope with that future uncertainty by building more storage."

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Colorado mountain snowpack in "good spot" for water supply heading into spring

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Colorado's mountain snow is measuring slightly higher than normal for this time of year, a vulnerable moment for cities and food growers ahead of spring, boosting confidence that water for crops, cattle and a growing population will be adequate.

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What will water conservation guidelines mean for Durango, Bayfield and Ignacio?

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What will water conservation guidelines mean for Durango, Bayfield and Ignacio?

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Local governments in La Plata County aren't opposed to a proposed state bill that stresses water conservation planning at the local level. Some are ready for it. Others would have work to do.

Colorado House Bill 1095 says if a local government's comprehensive plan includes a water-supply element, it must also include conservation policies. While there might be disagreement on how to conserve, some planners are already incorporating water into their land-use decisions.

"We'll still stand around and pray for rain, but we want to be ready for the drought," said Durango Assistant Utilities Director Jarrod Biggs.

Colorado's population is predicted to reach 8.7 million people by 2050 - a more-than 50% increase from 2015. La Plata County is also projected to see substantial growth.

In the Southwest basin, water demand is projected to increase between 17,000 and 27,000 acre feet by 2050, according to the Basin Implementation Plan. That's with some conservation by users.

Approximately 1 acre-foot can support the needs of two families of four to five people a year, says the Colorado Water Center at Colorado State University.

According to scientific models, the Southwest is also more vulnerable to drought as the climate warms, said Gigi Richard, director of the Four Corners Water Center at Fort Lewis College.

"One, we know our population is growing. Two, we know our climate is warming," Richard said. "Those two things are going to put stresses on the quantity of water available."

Durango and Bayfield have already included some water conservation measures into their community planning. Ignacio lacks any specific water conservation measures.

The town does not have a comprehensive plan, an advisory document that outlines long-term goals for community development required by state statute.

"We don't have any specific conservation measures in place other than it is illegal to let your water run off your property and into the street," Interim Town Manager Mark Garcia wrote in an email.

In Durango, the comprehensive plan references a 2015 sustainable action plan and a 2011 water efficiency management plan. The last time the city implemented water restrictions was in 2002, the year of the Missionary Ridge Fire.

"If that bill passed, I feel confident that we've integrated enough ... that we would meet those requirements," Biggs said. "We could always do more and do better."

In Bayfield, the town's 2005 comprehensive plan does not include some of the town's updated policies. For example, the 2018 Water Master Plan includes water supply requirements, and those would be incorporated when the comprehensive plan is updated. The town started looking at its emergency water measures during the drought in 2018.

"Every time we have a project in Bayfield, 'Hey, is there adequate water?'" said Bayfield Mayor Matt Salka. "The answer is yes, but for the town of Bayfield, we always have water in mind."

Water conservation and efficiency can be a charged topic among users.

Durango water users' opinions on conservation methods are a "mixed bag," Biggs said. Some people are actively trying to conserve, while others value a healthy lawn.

In Bayfield, most people seem to support the idea of water conservation, Salka said.

"I don't think it's a big topic here from a development perspective," Garcia said of Ignacio. "Some folks are looking at water conservation for reducing their own use and bill."

For Richard, the more planning, the better.

"Water is the absolute most fundamental resource that we all rely on," she said, which means temperature increases and population growth are important factors to consider.

"The issues associated with water are not going to be going away," she said.

smullane@durangoherald.com

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What will water conservation guidelines mean for Durango, Bayfield and Ignacio?

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Local governments in La Plata County aren't opposed to a proposed state bill that stresses water conservation planning at the local level. Some are ready for it. Others would have work to do. Colorado House Bill 1095 says if a local government's comprehensive plan includes a water-supply element, it must also include conservation policies.

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How does snow affect the amount of water in rivers?

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How does snow affect the amount of water in rivers?

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Glaciers along the Continental Divide, Alberta, May 2007. Glacier- and snow-fed systems provide the backbone of water supply not only in Western Canada but also in many other regions in the world. Credit: Markus Hrachowitz

New research has shown for the first time that the amount of water flowing through rivers in snow-affected regions depends significantly on how much of the precipitation falls as snowfall. This means in a warming climate, if less of the precipitation falls as snow, rivers will discharge less water than they currently do.

The study by PhD student Wouter Berghuijs and Dr Ross Woods, Senior Lecturer in Water and Environmental Engineering in the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Bristol together with a colleague from Delft University of Technology is published online in Nature Climate Change.

The researchers, using historical data from several hundred river basins located across the United States, investigated the effect of snow on the amount of water that rivers discharge.

How river flow is generated in snowy areas is poorly understood due to the difficulty in getting appropriate measurements. Previous studies have mostly focused on the role of snowfall for the within-year distribution of streamflow - how much water is there in the river during a particular period of the year - and assumed that there was no important effect of snow on the average streamflow. This study is the first to focus on the role of snow for how much water is on average available in rivers.

With data from 420 catchments located throughout the United States the researchers show that snowiness is an important factor for the average river discharge.

Global warming is very likely to reduce the amount of snow significantly in snow-affected catchments, even if temperatures rise only two degrees Celsius. The new research suggests that the amount of water in rivers will be reduced as a result of the decrease in snow.

Headwaters of Tsitika River watershed on Northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, December 2005. Temperature increases will affect the hydrological system in particular in rain/snow transition zones. Credit: Markus Hrachowitz

The authors of the study said: "With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population depending on meltwater for their water supply, and ecosystems that can be sensitive to streamflow alterations, the socio-economic consequences of a reduction in streamflow can be substantial.

"Our finding is particularly relevant to regions where societally important functions, such ecosystem stability, hydropower, irrigation, and industrial or domestic water supply are derived from snowmelt."

Given this importance of streamflow for society, the researchers propose that further studies are required to respond to the consequences of a temperature-induced precipitation shift from snow to rain.

More information: A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow, W. R. Berghuijs, R. A.Woods and M. Hrachowitz, Nature Climate Change, Vol 4, June 2014. dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2246

Journal information: Nature Climate Change

Provided by University of Bristol

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How does snow affect the amount of water in rivers?

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New research has shown for the first time that the amount of water flowing through rivers in snow-affected regions depends significantly on how much of the precipitation falls as snowfall. This means in a warming climate, if less of the precipitation falls as snow, rivers will discharge less water than they currently do.

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Colorado River’s retreat begins in the Rocky Mountains

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Colorado River’s retreat begins in the Rocky Mountains

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The snow that falls in the Rocky Mountains provides the majority of the water for the Colorado River. But with warming temperatures, drought and increased dust settling on the snowpack, that water source is diminishing.

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Study: Drier Colorado River system in store for West

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Study: Drier Colorado River system in store for West

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The Colorado River's famous Horseshoe Bend in Arizona.
[Photo courtesy of GoldenSpiral.org]

Colorado and other states across the West could see reservoirs dry up by 2057 if current water-management practices in the Colorado River system remain in place as the region continues to warm up, according to University of Colorado at Boulder researchers.
In a new study published in the American Geophysical Union journal, CU-Boulder researchers noted that roughly 30 million people depend on the Colorado River for drinking and irrigation water.

Associate Professor of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering at CU-Boulder Balaji Rajagopalan

The river features more than a dozen dams along its 1,450-mile journey from Colorado's Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California. The river system has endured 10 years of drought, said lead study author Balaji Rajagopalan, an associate professor of civil, environmental and architectural engineering.
Rajagopalan, a fellow at CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, said Colorado River system reservoirs started out at about 95 percent of capacity when the drought began in 2000, but those levels have dropped to 59 percent of capacity this year, about the same as last year.

The research team examined the future vulnerability of the system to water supply variability, coupled with projected changes in water demand.

"On average, drying caused by climate changes would increase the risk of fully depleting reservoir storage by nearly 10 times more than the risk we expect from population pressures alone," Rajagopalan said. "By midcentury, this risk translates into a 50 percent chance in any given year of empty reservoirs, an enormous risk and huge water-management challenge."

Total storage capacity of reservoirs on the Colorado River exceeds 60 million acre feet, almost four times the average annual flow on the river, researchers said.

The system's two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, can store up to 50 million acre feet of water. As a result, the risk of full reservoir depletion will remain low through 2026, even with a 20 percent stream flow reduction induced by climate change, Rajagopalan said.

However, between 2026 and 2057, the risks of fully depleting reservoir storage will increase seven-fold under current water-management practices when compared with risks expected from population pressure alone, he said.

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Faculty and Staff Newsletter | University of Colorado

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The Colorado River's famous Horseshoe Bend in Arizona. [Photo courtesy of GoldenSpiral.org] Colorado and other states across the West could see reservoirs dry up by 2057 if current water-management practices in the Colorado River system remain in place as the region continues to warm up, according to University of Colorado at Boulder researchers.

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It starts with the snow!