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Population Demographics: Percentage of the global population that is 65 or older will double from 10% to 20% by 2050, which is nearly 1.3 billion people. Asia will account for 62.3% of the world’s population over 65 years old by 2050. An aging population is bad for the economy because it means a smaller workforce and a higher dependency rates. Less workforce means increase taxes and reduces the country’s ability to generate GDP. The next generation will have a big burden, because they are the people who have ability to drive the economy grow. This situation will occur i think is because as the human capital growing, educated people will give birth to less children, some of them even none, which have lower the birth rate. To change this situation, I think the government should publish new law to encourage educated people have more children, giving subsidies to them. And raise the retirement age for the old people.

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With record-high amounts of student debt, questionable job prospects, and too much avocado toast in their bellies, many millennials already feel like they are getting the short end of the stick.

But here's another economic headwind they face as they are coming of age: the percentage of the global population that is 65 or older will double from 10% to 20% by 2050.

As millennials enter their peak earning years, there will be 1.6 billion elderly people on the planet.

Someone Has to Pay the Bill

Today's infographic comes to us from Aperion Care, and it highlights how demographics are shifting as well as the economic challenges of a rapidly aging global population.

With an older population that works less, support and dependency ratios get out of whack.

After all, countries already spend trillions of dollars each year on healthcare and social security. These systems were designed a long time ago, and were not setup to work with so few people paying into the programs.

Which Countries Face Headwinds?

While most countries face similar obstacles with aging populations, for some the problem is more severe.

The Potential Support Ratio (PSR), a measure of amount of working people (15-64) for each person over 65+ in age, is anticipated to fall below 5.0 in countries like Japan, Italy, Germany, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom. These countries will all have significant portions of their populations (>30%) made up of elderly people by 2050.

The United States sits in a slightly better situation with 27.9% of its population expected to hit 65 or higher by the same year - however, this is still analogous to modern-day Germany (which sits at 27.6%), a country that is already dealing with big demographic issues.

Here's one other look, from our previous Chart of the Week on dropping fertility rates and global aging:

Will millennials be able to diffuse the demographic timebomb, or will an aging population be the final straw?

Embed This Image On Your Site (copy code below):

Jeff Desjardins is a founder and editor of Visual Capitalist, a media website that creates and curates visual content on investing and business.

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Infographic: The Demographic Timebomb - A Rapidly Aging Population

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With record-high amounts of student debt, questionable job prospects, and too much avocado toast in their bellies, many millennials already feel like they are getting the short end of the stick. But here's another economic headwind they face as they are coming of age: the percentage of the global population that is 65 or older will double from 10% to 20% by 2050.

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Personal Finance: Compared with men, lower wages and higher medical cost have put women in a higher financial crisis situation. 70% patients from the nursing house are women, and the average cost of a private nursing home room is more than $90,000 per year. According to a statistic, retired women pay about $600 more than men on medical costs per year. And according to Social Security Administration data, the average female lifespan is 86.6, and average male lifespan is 84.3. So in the course of a longer life, women will incur more health care expenses than men. I think this situation exist is because of the inequality of wages, and usually women spend more time take care of family than working to earn money. To change this situation, I think government should increase spending on women and set a new law to protect women’s right, and women should be more economic independent, learn how to budget, and save some money and investing money to earn profit.

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Lower wages and higher medical costs are putting retiring women at greater risk for financial ruin than men, according to a recent survey.

Seventy percent of nursing home residents are women, and the average cost of a private nursing home room is more than $90,000 per year, said Debra Whitman, Chief Public Policy Officer for the AARP. Retired women pay about $600 more per year than men on out-of-pocket health costs, Whitman said.

Many women put their family's needs before their own security, Whitman said. According to the 17th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey, half of working women say saving for retirement is a priority, compared to 62% of working men.

Compounding the issue is that women often have less money than men to pay for long-term health care, she said. Women generally earn less than men (79 cents to the dollar) and women spend more time out of the workforce to care for children or aging parents.

To keep themselves safe, one retirement planner said women need to focus more on their health and find advisers who can understand their specific financial needs.

"The financial industry speaks the language of risk tolerance and investments," said Jeannette Bajalia, president of life planning firm Women's Worth. "I speak the language of protection and security, not being a burden to anyone. I want my money to last as long as I last."

According to Social Security Administration data, a 65-year-old woman can expect to live to age 86.6, compared to an average male lifespan of 84.3. Women need to stretch money to cover a longer lifespan, and in the course of a longer life, they will incur more health care expenses, Bajalia said.

"Very few men are sitting around in nursing homes," Bajalia said. "It's the women."

Bajalia said women who leave retirement planning to their spouses do so at their own peril.

"Many of the couples I serve say, 'She'll just sell the house when I die, or she'll spend less,'" Bajalia said. "Well, that may not be the case. What if the housing market isn't right?"

Women need take control of their finances and seek financial help from people who understand their priorities, Bajalia said. Women also need to stay on top of preventative care, general wellness and physical fitness. A gym membership now may reduce medical bills later, she said.

"I beg. I shout from the mountaintops. Ladies, get your heads out of the sand. You deserve better," she said.
SEE MORE AT WOMEN.USATODAY.COM
Read or Share this story: http://usat.ly/2nj1Tft

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Retired women are more prone to financial crisis

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Lower wages and higher medical costs are putting retiring women at greater risk for financial ruin than men, according to a recent survey. Seventy percent of nursing home residents are women, and the average cost of a private nursing home room is more than $90,000 per year, said Debra Whitman, Chief Public Policy Officer for the AARP.

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Issues of Economic Development: Nigerian development was always depending on their oil resources. Since the boom-burst cycles of the oil industry, the government was trying to change a economic development model, to diverse their economic base. Nigeria is far behind the per capita production level, as it have a large population, it also have a high infant mortality rate. Nigerian have a bad situation in its economy is because of political instability, lack of focused and visionary leadership, economic mismanagement and corruption. The long period of military rule have destroyed its economic and social progress, its human capital and physical capital is getting less. I think if Nigeria need to change this situation by changing a new stable efficient government, and to draw up a new economic plan according to its national conditions.

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Economic development and growth in Nigeria

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Daily Trust: Economic development is a term that economists, politicians, and others have used frequently since the 20th Century.

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The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy: In the past 3 years, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain have been in a finance crisis. Before 1st 1999, Euro were using different currencies and there have been tariffs and quotas between european countries. Because of the world war 2, Europe was devastated. In order to rebuild Europe economy, they have set up the European Union. And Europe bank issue euro. Now Europe have one unified monetary policy but it still had many different fiscal policy, this is the key reason for the europe current debt crisis. These countries pay off their debts with the money borrowed from Germany. Which leads to increase their spending and the unbalanced fiscal policies. Germany have lend money to these countries and asked these countries cutting their spending and borrowing less and paying back more debt, which is austerity. But if the government cutting spending many citizens will lose jobs, and the austerity won’t automatically balance a country’s budget.

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This Bloomberg video explained the debt problem faced by some of European union countries because of differences in their monetary policies and fiscal policies.

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Using Fiscal Policy: In a meeting, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi announced that italy have the lowest public deficit of the last 10 years, and it’ll keep reforming to reduce deficit further. But look at its economy clearly the situation is not that negative. There’s 1.5 millions of people are living in poverty, 4.5 millions individuals saw stagnant incomes. Official unemployment rate is at 11,9% but the real unemployment rate is more than 20%. Obviously Italy is stuck in a deep depression. To improve this situation, the government should use the expansionary fiscal policy, increase the government spending, decrease taxes or both in order to increase the aggregate demand.

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In a meeting with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande on August 22, the Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi proudly announced that Italy has the lowest public deficit of the last 10 years, and will continue with structural reforms to reduce it further. Monti has long aimed to "restore credibility" by cutting the public deficit, and now the Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan enjoys praise on his achievement of a deficit as small as 2.4% of GDP. The FED (Financial and Economic Document) goes so far as say this makes Italy "among the most virtuous countries in the Eurozone ."

A closer look at Italy's economy, however, shows this "virtuosity" has no basis in reality. In 2015, 1.5 million households lived in absolute poverty. Another 4.5 million individuals saw stagnant incomes. The situation has not been this bad since 2005. In addition, the Migrantes foundation informs us that there has been a boom of italians who go abroad, 107,000 in 2015 (+6,2%). Especially youth from 18 to 34 years old (36,7%).
Source: [Ansa.it "Rapporto fondazione Migrantes"]

The percentage of serious material deprivation index is 11,5% for total households members. Official unemployment rate is at 11,9% whereas the real unemployment rate is well above the 20%. The inactivity rate is at 36,0 % and the fixed capital investment ratio is stuck well below the pre-crises (2007-08) levels.
Source: ["Rapporto annuale Istat, 2016"]

It is clear that Italy is stuck in a deep depression. And it's not alone. Many other euro countries are suffering the same fate. Cutting public spending cannot help them recover. We turn to Keynes to see why it cannot, and consult the work of Minsky and Wynne Godley to see what can.
Keynes and Aggregate Demand
In The General Theory , J.M. Keynes explains the challenges blocking achieving and maintaining full employment in a market economy. He argues that the booms and busts associated with capitalism make this state of equilibrium very difficult to reach. When a bust occurs, and businesses expect their profits to fall, there's no reason to expect a magical market-force to step in and fix employment while costs are being cut.

This applies to Italy, too. After years of austerity and a Global Financial Crises, aggregate demand levels have declined sharply most people feel uncertain about the future. Additional demand for labor is close to zero and the private sector is pessimistic. Investment and spending is not sufficient to employ the unemployed. Cutting down government expenditure is not going to to help. It will simply make it worse.
Minsky and Fiscal Policy
A follower of Keynes, Hyman Minsky explained how any analysis of a monetary capitalist economy must start from the analysis of balance sheets and its relative financial interrelations 'measured' in of cash flows. If balance sheets and especially the relative financial relations are not taken into account within an analysis of an essentially financial and monetary economy, that analysis fails to reflect the full reality.

Minsky's alternative analysis shows that in case of crisis, a nation needs a "Big Government" (The Treasury Department) and a "Big Bank" (The Central Bank) to step up. These institutions must focus on serving as an "Employer of Last Resort" and a "Lender of Last Resort", respectively. This way, they can prevent wages and asset prices from dropping further, and tame the market economy. In the Euro-zone, this has not been realized. The Treasury Department is constrained, leaving them unable to reach full employment. Meanwhile, citizens continue suffer under austerity.
Wynne Godley and the Government Budget
Wynne Godley's sectoral balance approach sheds more light on this Minskyian alternative. He shows the economy consists of two sectors: The government sector, and the private sector (all households and businesses).** The private sector can accumulate net financial assets only if the other sector, government, runs a budget deficit. That is, only if the flows of the government spends more than it receives in taxes. It is impossible for both sectors to run a surplus at the same time.

And as a simple matter of macro-accounting, for aggregate output to be sold, total spending must equal the total income generated in the production process. So given households' decisions to consume and given firms' decisions to invest, there will be involuntarily idle labour for sale with no buyers at current wages, if the government deficit spending is too small to accommodate the net desire to save of the private sector.
What Renzi and Padoan are Really Saying
We can now see what Renzi and Padoan are really congratulating themselves for. Having done nothing to lift a struggling private sector out of the recession, they patting themselves on the back for worsening it's social and economic situation. Renzi may claim he will go to Brussels to "sbattere i pugni sul tavolo", but his executives continue to respect the Stability and Growth pact regime, and decrease the deficit further.

From Wynne Godley, we know that further decreasing the government deficit corresponds to further deterioration the private sector surplus. So when the officials say they "need to put public accounts in order," they are actually saying they will put households and business accounts in dis-order. So when they say that Italy has the lowest budget deficit of the last 10 years, they are actually stating that the government is draining more financial assets from the private sector than it has in a decade.

When they call Italy virtuous for keeping a smallest deficit, they assign virtue to the nation that most effectively perpetuates poverty and social disarray. When Renzi says that his non elected executive "will continue [...] the reduction of the deficit for our children and grandchildren", he is instead telling us that his government is going to reduce the net desire to save of the current population, to keep involuntary unemployment and part-time working levels high and to firmly deteriorate the (net) financial and real wealth of the future generations.

Unless Italy changes its approach and adopts expansionary fiscal policy, it will not serve the well-being of the society and its economy. The main goal of full employment will never be attained and maintained. Work will lack moral and economic dignity, public sector goods will fall short in quantity and quality, and basic human rights will be violated. Not only will policy goals fail to be achieved, they will be even farther out of reach. One thing is certain: either Renzi and his ministers don't know what they're doing, or they are doing it in bad faith. I am afraid of it may be both.

* To be as precise as possible, Italian public budget deficit has been systematically reduced from 1991, that is the year when the Treaty of Maastricht was ratified which, among other things, established the respect of the parameter of the 3% to the public deficit and 60% to the (flawed) public debt/gdp ratio.
** I do not take into account the foreign sector balance sheet, because the substance of my brief argument won't be undermined.

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Italy is Hungry for Expansionary Fiscal Policy - The Minskys

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In a meeting with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande on August 22, the Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi proudly announced that Italy has the lowest public deficit of the last 10 years, and will continue with structural reforms to reduce it further.

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Facing Economic Challenges: In China, there’s a large number of graduates who can’t find a job. The unemployment rate of graduates from colleges and universities two months after graduating is about 17.6 per cent, for the graduates who’re from rural area is about 30 per cent. I think this is  because of the large population, there’s a great competition among graduates. So graduates with background will have priority. Student without background can only depends on their own to find a proper job. I think China government should increase job opportunity, because unemployment is inefficient, it’s a waste of human resources. And it’s inequality and this situation will discouraged workers confidence.

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Once again, more than 7 million students in China graduated from university in May. If you add in the 300,000 overseas graduates and previous years' graduates who are still looking for jobs, that means more than 15 million young people were reportedly seeking their fortunes at the same time this year.

As a newly rising economic power, China is considered to have a huge job market. Indeed, when you google "find a job in China", millions of results pop up. But the reality is many graduates struggle to find work after finishing their studies. In fact, a popular saying that has arisen in recent years holds that "graduation equals unemployment."

In 2013, the unemployment rate of graduates from colleges and universities two months after graduating was 17.6 percent, according to Times Higher Education; for those in rural areas, it was 30.5 percent. That's higher than the general unemployment rate (or at least what's thought to be the unemployment rate, since data out of China is unreliable). As China's economy has slowed down in the past two years, the graduate unemployment problem only has worsened.

The frustration of China's younger generations is reflected in a number of widely circulated social media and mobile text messages, such as the following:

When we were born, the infant formula was toxic; when our bodies were in development, we could only consume junk food; when we attended kindergarten, the school fee was out of control; when we graduated from university, we were unemployed; when we tried to earn our living via the stock market, it collapsed; when we tried hard to fall in love, we found out all handsome guys were gay; when we started chasing after the mainstream [culture and values], they were no longer mainstream.

当我们出生的时候，奶粉里都有毒了，当我们长身体的时候，只能吃垃圾食品了，当我们要上幼儿园的时候，开始乱收费了，当我们大学毕业的时候，毕业就是失业了，当我想努力赚钱的时候股市倒了，当我想努力谈恋爱的时候帅哥都成GAY了，当我想追求一切流行的时候，又开始非主流了！

What university means: management is like prison, the quality is for hooligans. [Students] learn how to kiss in public, consume like a white-collar worker, daydream in class. Skipping classes is common, dormitories are like internet cafes. Taking exams becomes a profession, only the aristocracy can afford school fees. Thesis looks like Baidu search results. Everyone gets short-sighted. The food in school canteens is for feeding animals. Having a job is like a dream. Graduation equals unemployment. Jobs [available] on the market are for rural-to-urban migrants.

所谓大学：管理监狱化，素质流氓化，Kiss公开化，消费白领化，上课梦境化，逃课普遍化，寝室网吧化，补考专业化，学费贵族化，论文百度化，近视全面化，食堂饲料化，求职梦想化，毕业失业化，就业民工化。

Many believe that part of the problem of unemployment for recent university graduates is related to the policy of higher education expansion since 1999. Back then, only about 35 percent of high school graduates entered post-high school education including colleges, technical schools and universities. But in 2015, the percent was more than 80 percent, and about 40 percent became undergraduates at universities. For big cities like Beijing, the number of students entering university was more than 70 percent.

Some argue there aren't enough jobs for so many university-educated people. On popular social media site Weibo, Lydia commented on the over-supply of graduates:

Graduates are everywhere, and college students are not worth anything now. How could you tell the difference?

以后大学生越来越不值钱了，一抓一大把，有什么区别？

Another Weibo user, "Nomadic hero", wrote that a side effect of expansion is a drop in the quality of graduates in general:

The fight for educational justice to make sure the majority of people have the chance to go to school is good. But it is true that the quality of students is getting worse. It is the university, rather than students, that lose value.

国家维护学习公平尽力让大多数人享有受教育固然是好事，可整体学生质量一蟹不如一蟹。不是大学生不值钱了，而是大学贬值了

"Ling Yan San Chi" lamented:

Graduated for two years already, but I am still working on how to find a job!! Why is my life so miserable?

Though it is difficult to find job, many still consider entering university as the best path to obtain specialized skills and climb the social ladder - hence they do not feel regret for the choice. "HaiDe XiaTian" even chose to carry on his studies in postgraduate school:

I feel regret [about pursuing higher education], but there is no other way and I have to carry on down this path. Going to postgraduate school will be my last chance to enter an ideal university.

The graduation ceremony is called commencement, which should stand for a new beginning for graduates, but many see it like an individual struggle, such as Weibo user UsedToBe5:

Finding a job is a tough thing because you have to fall down and get up again and again. Of course, I have no one to blame since I choose it myself.

Not everyone is gloomy about the situation. A hashtag on Weibo called #graduation doesn't mean unemployment# gives the topic a positive twist, and messages try to offer support, tips and personal experiences.

The latest status with the above hashtag was published on July 12 by Weibo user "WanAn Xin XinYu," who was one of the 7 million newly graduated young people in 2016:

I am going to have another interview today, and I wish I could start working tomorrow. #graduation doesn't mean unemployment# Add oil [ a phrase of encouragement]! Although I have been unemployed for a month.

Comments

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In China, a university degree isn't always a golden ticket to employment | Hong Kong Free Press HKFP

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By Ruijun Xu. Once again, than 7 million students in China graduated from university in May. If you add in the 300,000 overseas graduates and previous years' graduates who are still loing for jobs, that means than 15 million young people were reportedly seeking their fortunes at the same time this year.

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Economic Indicators and Measurements: Build a much needed new homes can stimulate economy a lot. EY Scottish ITEM Club predicts growth in the Scottish economy for 2017 will be half of UK. The chief executive Nicola Barclay said that this report emphasises the importance of business and government working together to de-risk investment, build confidence and drive economic growth. And there’s a research shows that returning to pre-recession levels of building by the end of this Scottish Parliament, buildings project would generate an additional £1.9bn in economic output and 38,000 jobs on an annual basis. I think building industries is a part of capital deepening. It can stimulate economy is because more and better capital goods can increased output.

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Building much needed new homes could fill the economic void left by large, soon to be completed infrastructure projects such as the Queensferry Crossing, according to Homes for Scotland.

Responding to the EY Scottish ITEM Club Summer Update, which predicts growth in the Scottish economy for 2017 to be half that of the UK, the trade body said the country needs a new housebuilding programme to prevent its economy from stagnating.

Chief executive Nicola Barclay said: "This report emphasises the importance of business and government working together to de-risk investment, build confidence and drive economic growth.

"As well as helping to deliver the biggest return in terms of skills, jobs, productivity and the other measures highlighted by the ITEM Club, building the homes of all types that are needed to meet the requirements of our growing population also offers vital social benefits such as improved health and education outcomes.

"Whilst we need tens of thousands of new homes, latest figures show that Scotland remains in housing decline with our members telling me that it has never been harder to open new sites and get homes out of the ground.

"Research shows that returning to pre-recession levels of building by the end of this Scottish Parliament would alone generate an additional £1.9bn in economic output and 38,000 jobs on an annual basis.

"What we need is a supportive policy framework which encourages housing investment and development, and which enables Scotland to reap these economic and social rewards."

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Trade body calls for housebuilding programme to stimulate 'stagnating Scottish economy' - Scottish Construction Now!

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Building much needed new homes could fill the economic void left by large, soon to be completed infrastructure projects such as the Queensferry Crossing, according to Homes for Scotland. Responding to the EY Scottish ITEM Club Summer Update, which predicts growth in the Scottish economy for 2017 to be half that of the UK, the(...)

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The role of Labour: Labour forces is a great element of developing a nation economy. Because of the shrinking and aging population, Japan have faced to the worst labour shortage situation, but now, number of labour in Japan have arrived in 1 millions, most of them are comes from China and Vietnam. Japan have provide trainee system for those foreign workers in order to raise the productivity. I think now there are so many foreign workers in Japan have decreased demand for labour forces, this can cause the wages goes down.

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TOKYO: The number of foreign workers in Japan surpassed 1 million for the first time last year, as the labour-strapped country struggles to find enough Japanese workers.

Slightly over a million foreigners from countries such as China and Vietnam were working in Japan as of last October, labour ministry data showed on Friday.
That was up nearly 20% from the previous year and a new record for the fourth straight year.

The figures suggest Japan is increasingly turning to workers from overseas to plug its labour shortages despite its reluctance to accept foreigners.

Japan is facing its worst labour crunch since 1991 amid a shrinking and ageing population, which has prompted calls from the International Monetary Fund to accept foreign workers.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said more Japanese women and the elderly should work first before accepting immigrants, but policymakers are exploring ways to bring in more foreign workers without calling it "immigration".

The labour shortage is especially severe in the construction sector, where demand has spiked ahead of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and for rebuilding following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Over 41,000 foreigners powered the construction industry as of last October, up from around 29,000 the previous year.

In November, there were more than eight times as many jobs to build steel construction frames as workers, separate government data showed.

"We have on-site managers through our company, but the people who actually do the work, that's where we lack skilled labour," said a manager at a major Japanese construction firm. "That's where we have to find the people, and why we are trying to open gates to immigrants."

A Reuters investigation last year showed how asylum seekers banned from working were in fact working on public works projects amid a shortage of Japanese construction workers.

Workers from China made up over 30% of the foreign labour force, rising 6.9% from the previous year, according to the labour data. Vietnamese workers were in second place, accounting for around 16% of foreign workers, but up over 50% compared to the previous year.

Although Japan accepted a record number of foreign workers, these include trainees and exchange students working part time.

The trainee system, aimed at training foreign workers so they can bring skills back to their home country, is often used by labour-strapped companies to secure workers. The programme has been criticised by the United States for exploitation.

Nearly 20% of foreign workers were trainees as of last October, rising by over 25% from the previous year.

"It's not right that exchange students working part time and trainees who are supposed to be here to gain skills are counted as foreign labour," said Hidenori Sakanaka, former head of the Tokyo Immigration Bureau.

"The government may be trying to inflate the numbers and turn its eyes away from the fact Japan closes its doors to immigration. What we need to do is to work toward accepting immigration." - Reuters

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Foreign workers in Japan hit 1 million for the first time - Business News | The Star Online

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TOKYO: The number of foreign workers in Japan surpassed 1 million for the first time last year, as the labour-strapped country struggles to find enough Japanese workers. Slightly over a million foreigners from countries such as China and Vietnam were working in Japan as of last October, labour ministry data showed on Friday.

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There is a deal between US and China, that US is willing to open and exports liquefied natural gas to Chinese market, in order to break the situation of Qatar's grip on liquefied natural gas pricing, which is stop the monopoly of Qatar, and to let the market structure of liquefied natural gas in China more diversified, move closer to the perfect competition to keep the prices down which benefit the customers.

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The mere prospect of China buying more of the fuel from the United States stands to upend the global LNG market. It would give the world's biggest buyers - Japan, South Korea and China - leverage in negotiations with top supplier Qatar and other major players. That could in turn shift prices paid for LNG across the world.

In Asian markets, most LNG is sold in long-term contracts, with prices indexed to the price of oil. Those contracts can be renegotiated, and last week's deal between Beijing and Washington could loom large in future negotiations, according to Benjamin Salisbury, senior energy policy analyst at FBR Capital Markets.

Chinese companies "don't have to import any U.S. LNG. They just have to have that sledgehammer in their pocket when they go to negotiate their other contracts," he said.

Much like a technological revolution in U.S. drilling flooded the market with oil and overturned the global oil price order, the threat of American LNG exporters penetrating key markets could rock the LNG market.

This comes as exporters are already grappling with softer-than-anticipated demand, weak LNG prices and a looming boom in export terminal openings - all of which have converged to create a buyer's market.

Cheniere Energy currently operates the only LNG export terminal in the lower 48 states, but four others are under construction in Texas, Louisiana and Maryland. They are slated to come online by 2021, and will push U.S. export capacity to 9.2 billion cubic feet - nearly equal to Japan's total LNG imports in 2015.

"Once you get sufficient critical mass of U.S. LNG capacity in the pipeline, so to speak, then it disrupts the entire global pricing mechanism," Salisbury said. "You've got to view all of these discussions through that window. What does it do to [Chinese buyers'] negotiating power elsewhere?"

U.S. LNG export forecast

Salisbury said he believes Beijing's real goal is to break the Qataris' monopoly over setting Asian LNG prices.

To be sure, Qatar has already seen that monopoly erode, said Massimo Di-Odoardo, head of global gas and LNG research at energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. The Qataris have been forced to renegotiate contracts in light of falling Asian LNG prices and new competition.

The ability to enter long-term contracts with American firms doesn't change the appetite for LNG in China, he said, but it does put pressure on the region's dominant suppliers like Qatar and Australia. If U.S. exporters can lock in at least a few long-term contracts with Chinese buyers, those deals could underwrite investment in new U.S. export capacity, he added.

U.S. LNG is attractive for another reason: The American natural gas market is highly transparent, affording buyers greater clarity on costs than they have in other regions, said Rick Smead, a managing director at advisory firm RBN Energy who has advised Qatar on energy policy in the past.

That transparency will help determine what others can charge and push the opaque, fractured LNG trade toward becoming a mature, functioning market governed by supply and demand, he said.

Whether China turns into the LNG demand center some foresee will depend on a number of issues, said Smead, including the role of coal in its energy mix, natural gas pipeline imports from Russia and the potential adoption of the same drilling methods that are inching the United States toward energy independence.

But the push by the Trump administration is not insignificant, according to Smead. "The more synchronization you can see in the objectives and motivation between industry and the government, the more of a force you are," he said.

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Trump just gave China a 'sledgehammer' to smash an energy monopoly

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The mere prospect of China buying more of the fuel from the United States stands to upend the global LNG market. It would give the world's biggest buyers - Japan, South Korea and China - leverage in negotiations with top supplier Qatar and other major players.

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Nowadays the whole world trades are connected together, and change in the political issues in a certain country would affect the economic system of the whole world, as Trump became to the new president of US and Brexit, it’s really important to have a good social protection system to prevent a nation itself being negatively affected. For the global trading, WTO have set a economic system sigh for a all members agreement. The director of WTO said that “reminds us that a ‘strong, rules-based trading system is essential for global economic stability”, the situation for each country are really different, the underdeveloped countries need to open their market to bring the poverty into workforce. The developed country need to open the international market and to reform and manage their shrinking populations.

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Author: Editors, East Asia Forum

International trade and investment lifts living standards. The evidence for this is irrefutable. And modern economic development is not possible without opening up to international markets, competition and capital.

But the world is re-learning the hard way, through Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump, that institutions and policies that protect the immediate losers from trade are needed to realise and sustain the benefits of open markets. Having a healthy and a well-functioning macroeconomic environment - one that delivers what economists call full employment - and a flexible labour market are crucial. So is having an effective social protection system.

When economic growth slows it is harder for the winners from globalisation to compensate the losers. The United States' slow recovery from the global financial crisis, which hit close to 10 years ago, has brought these underlying structural problems into sharp focus. The social safety net is in tatters with the healthcare system, education system and redistributive policies exacerbating inequality - inequality in both opportunity and outcome - and bringing into question the American dream.

Australia, Japan, and many other countries have been able to avoid the retreat from globalisation thanks to well-functioning social protection systems. There may have been an inclination in many countries to adopt US institutions since it is the richest, most advanced and powerful economy in the world, but the lesson from Trump's rise is a clear warning that now is the time to double down on the social safety net when embracing free and open markets.

When times are tough in any country there is immense pressure to put up barriers to foreign competition as a way to protect domestic producers. Protection may bring short-term relief to some parts of society and have short-term political appeal but is a cost to society as a whole, as well as to other countries.

The global trading system has been stopping countries from committing self-harm for 70 years. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which later became the World Trade Organisation (WTO) was created in response to countries' retreating to protectionism after the Great Depression. Countries voluntarily signed up to be bound by the rules and norms of that system and to have disputes with other countries settled within that system.

The 164-member WTO is far from perfect but it has underpinned successful globalisation. The large membership and diverse interests of the WTO have frustrated the completion of the Doha Round of trade negotiations. The WTO does not cover foreign direct investment and many other issues relevant to commerce in the 21st century. But its dispute settlement mechanism continues to function well and has resolved trade frictions that in an earlier time may have escalated into trade if not military conflict. High profile, geopolitically charged disputes such as the alleged Chinese rare-earth metal export embargo against Japan have been resolved peacefully in the WTO with China accepting the ruling against it.

In this week's lead essay, Director General of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, reminds us that a 'strong, rules-based trading system is essential for global economic stability' and explains how that system can be re-energised.

Multilateral trade deals required all members to sign on to the entire agreement, called a single-undertaking, that made it harder to complete the latest round of negotiations, the Doha Round, as the issues became more complex and the number of countries increased. Azevêdo explains the WTO is 'learning to be ambitious, but also to be pragmatic, realistic and flexible', as well as 'creative, finding innovative solutions and engaging in flexible formats'.

That is all good news for making progress on freeing up trade and reviving slumping global trade growth. But the bigger risk is that the WTO itself could be under threat from the United States, the very country that led its creation and which has underwritten the rules-based order for the past 70 years. The United States and Europe have provided a tailwind for the global economic system but have now turned to become the headwind against its forward movement.

President Trump has not carried through on many of his campaign promises and the world holds its breath in the hope that continues. While he withdrew the United States from the 12 member regional trade agreement the Trans-Pacific Partnership, he has not acted on tearing up existing trade agreements, starting a trade war with China or Mexico, or withdrawing from the WTO. But if jobs do not return in the American rust belt - perhaps as US interest rates rise and the dollar strengthens, or just because many of those jobs are gone for good - and Trump needs to demonstrate action on trade, the world will need to be ready to hold the line against following suit and to save the entire system.

Azevêdo explains that East Asia and the Pacific have a key role to play in boosting trade for jobs, growth and development. Asia will play the key role in saving the global trading system and global economy, if it is to be saved.

China is the world's largest trader, a remarkable story only made possible with its accession to the WTO in 2001. The world, including the United States, has benefitted greatly from China's success. China's economy is now the second largest in the world and still depends on open markets for development and its pursuit of prosperity. But China alone cannot lead the global fight against protectionism if the United States turns its back on globalisation.

South Asia and many countries in Southeast Asia need open markets to bring millions out of poverty and into the workforce. Japan and South Korea need open international markets to execute difficult reforms to manage shrinking populations. Asia is now a major growth engine in the global economy and has the interest, ability and responsibility to save the global rules-based order.
The EAF Editorial Group is comprised of Peter Drysdale, Shiro Armstrong, Ben Ascione, Amy King, Liam Gammon and Jillian Mowbray-Tsutsumi and is located in the Crawford School of Public Policy in the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific.

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Author: Editors, East Asia Forum International trade and investment lifts living standards. The evidence for this is irrefutable. And modern economic development is not possible without opening up to international markets, competition and capital.

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As an agricultural country, agricultural industries have made important contributions to the  Vietnam’s development. But in order to promote a larger scale of agricultural production, the government decides to review all land-related policies and implement an new agriculture land law. The first step is to change their way of thinking into the economic way of thinking. They shouldn’t thinking only based on the farmer’s economic fundamentals, but also to expand into a varies economic thinking. To support this action, government should increase spending in the agriculture areas and provide subsidies to the poor farmer.

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Update: June, 05/2017 - 10:11

Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development, Nguyễn Đỗ Anh Tuấn, talks to Vietnam News Agency about the policy on the expansion of agricultural land limit and accumulation.

The Government has decided to review all land-related policies to facilitate expansion of agricultural land limits and land accumulation for promoting large-scale agricultural production. Can you explain this move?

Since the đổi mới (renewal) process was launched, agriculture has made important contributions to the country's development, especially towards ensuring food security, eliminating hunger, reducing poverty and providing social stability. However, the current context has changed. Now, the market requires higher quality produce and products, food hygiene and safety and processing.

All this shows that we must adopt a new way of thinking that is not based solely on the farmer's economic fundamentals, but one that is premised on the need to diversify the economy, re-organise large-scale production and apply science and technology.

For this, the first thing is to solve the problem of land limits (the area of agricultural land for which land-use rights have been granted to individuals or households). The Government has identified this as a bottleneck that has to be cleared so that optimum advantage can be taken of the country's resources.

What are the difficulties you see in implementing a policy that expands existing ceilings?

There are three big challenges.

Firstly, about 45 per cent of the population still lives on agriculture and 66 per cent live in rural areas. If the agricultural production scale is expanded, a number of agricultural workers will become redundant. What will they do and how should we create jobs for them?

Secondly, if the land limits are extended and the market is allowed to go free, it will be easy for a new class of landlords to emerge and control all the land resources, and farmers will have no legal standing to protect their work and assets.

Thirdly, we need a breakthrough in the way we think. We are still not thinking long-term. When we issue a law or a policy, we must look at the next 20 years, not the reality of today and what was 20 years ago.

We need proper solutions to these three challenges to ensure that the land limit policy can be implemented well.

Can you say something more about the claims that expanding the land limit could see a new class of landlords rise, and more farmers become impoverished?

This is a difficult problem in many countries, not just Việt Nam. Ensuring social equality is a challenge.

In order to avoid farmer impoverishment or prevent speculative use of farmland, I think several steps should be taken consistently.

First, farmers should have the legal support they need, especially in contractual relationships with enterprises and larger economic organisations.

Second, we need to take into account how people can accumulate their land and see who is using it effectively. Alternatively, farmers can exchange or lease the land to each other to farm on a large area and benefit from economies of scale. To do so, it is easier for them to join a co-operative and have enterprises become part of the value chain. This will secure the rights of farmers to their land.

Authorities must take steps to prevent land speculation and also the practice of people buying agricultural land and then using it for some other purpose.

However, it is also necessary to take into account the gradual withdrawal of agricultural labour, as the current agricultural land size per household in Việt Nam is too small and inefficiently used, so the income generated by agriculture is not sufficient for farming households to thrive.

So what should be solution, so that the use of land is most effective and helps create a modern and competitive agriculture sector?

In the nation's new development period, the first thing is to give land access to the most effective user without compromising on social quality or the rights and interests of farmers.

For the immediate future, consideration should be given to revising the Land Law. The revisions must take into account the flexibility of land use in order to farm different crops as also livestock. It is important that agricultural land is not used for any other purpose, and that environmental protection and social standards are maintained.

Enterprises, in particular, should have mechanisms to stimulate the market of leasing land from farmers, so that the latter continue to own their property. - VNS

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Higher land ceilings policy should ensure farmers' rights

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Update: June, 05/2017 - 10:11 Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development, Nguyễn Đỗ Anh Tuấn, talks to Vietnam News Agency about the policy on the expansion of agricultural land limit and accumulation.